Identifying important military installations for continental-scale conservation of marsh bird breeding habitat.

Degradation of wetland ecosystems has negatively impacted many species, perhaps none more so than marsh birds that breed in vegetative emergent wetlands throughout North America. The U.S. Department of Defense manages approximately 29 million acres of land within the continental U.S., and many military installations contain wetland complexes that may be important for wetland birds. Thus, failure to adequately manage habitat for marsh birds could result in species extirpations and additional listings under the Endangered Species Act, and may result in regulatory burdens that reduce military readiness. We conducted spatial analyses to identify important breeding habitat on > 500 military installations for 12 species of marsh birds, with the goal of identifying installations that are, and are not, likely to harbor breeding habitat for each species. We also sought to assess the local value of military installations for species of greatest concern by comparing habitat suitability within installations to that in areas directly adjacent to those sites. We built range-wide, spatially-explicit models of species distribution to project suitability of breeding habitat for marsh birds within and adjacent to military installations. Our results demonstrate that installations with the best marsh bird habitat are geographically aggregated (both among and within species), primarily at sites along the eastern seaboard and within the southern U.S. In addition, only a few sites appear to contain high-quality habitat for most species. Five or fewer sites contained most of the high-quality habitat for 9 of 12 species, whereas most of the high-quality habitat for remaining species was found at ≤ 10 sites. This work fills an information gap regarding the distribution of breeding habitat for marsh birds on military lands across the U.S., and should facilitate both strategic conservation of habitat over broad scales and the integration of marsh birds into management efforts at the site level. Our analyses also identify installations that are not likely to harbor breeding habitat for priority species, and thus should help minimize conflicts between needs of the military and marsh-bird conservation.

Identifying target reference points for harvesting assessment-limited wildlife populations: a case study.

Identifying appropriate strategies for sustainable harvest is a challenge for many terrestrial vertebrate species because of uncertain system dynamics, limited data to inform population models, and potentially conflicting objectives that seek to harvest and maintain populations at desirable levels. The absence of monitoring and assessment infrastructure needed to regularly estimate abundance accentuates this challenge for many species, and limits application of rigorous state-dependent frameworks for decision making that are commonly advocated in natural resource management. Reference points, which define management targets or triggers for changing management, are often used to guide decision-making, but suffer from ambiguity when developed without explicit consideration of uncertainty or trade-offs among competing objectives. We describe an approach for developing unambiguous target reference points for assessment-limited species using structured decision making, and demonstrate the approach to develop target harvest rates for management of fall Wild Turkey (Meleagris gallopavo) harvests in the face of uncertain population and harvest dynamics. We use simulation and decision analyses to identify harvest rates that are optimal for accomplishing explicit management objectives in the face of uncertainty, and harvest rates with robust performance over broad regions of the demographic and harvest model parameter space. We demonstrate that population and harvest parameters commonly uncertain to wildlife managers interact to determine appropriate target harvest rates for Wild Turkeys, and that formally acknowledging a range of plausible values for structurally uncertain parameters results in more conservative target reference points than suggested by previously published studies. The structured decision making framework described here provides a natural conceptual and quantitative framework for extending our approach to develop unambiguous harvest targets for other assessment-limited wildlife populations while formally acknowledging structural uncertainty in system dynamics.

Wildlife mortality from infrastructure collisions: statistical modeling of count data from carcass surveys.

Anthropogenic infrastructure is a mortality source for many vertebrate species. Mortality is often measured using periodic counts of carcasses or remains at infrastructure segments, and bias from carcass removal is estimated via field experiments with wildlife carcasses. We describe a model for combining removal experiment and carcass count data to estimate underlying process parameters using joint likelihood. In the model, the instantaneous number of carcasses present is a stochastic birth-death process with Poisson arrivals (carcass addition) and proportional deaths (removal of carcasses). The approach accommodates modeling heterogeneity in the addition and removal processes using generalized regression. Results of fitting the model to a Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) fence collision data set show that order of magnitude differences in expected carcass counts can be a function of spatial differences in removal and suggest caution for interpretation of many published studies. While the model assumption of negligible detection error may be tenable for some systems, the modeling framework provides a starting point for future state-space versions incorporating detection error.

Effects of large-scale disturbance on animal space use: Functional responses by greater sage-grouse after megafire.

Global change has altered the nature of disturbance regimes, and megafire events are increasingly common. Megafires result in immediate changes to habitat available to terrestrial wildlife over broad landscapes, yet we know surprisingly little about how such changes shape space use of sensitive species in habitat that remains. Functional responses provide a framework for understanding and predicting changes in space use following habitat alteration, but no previous studies have assessed functional responses as a consequence of megafire. We studied space use and tested for functional responses in habitat use by breeding greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) before and after landscape-level changes induced by a >40,000 ha, high-intensity megafire that burned sagebrush steppe in eastern Idaho, USA. We also incorporated functional responses into predictive resource selection functions (RSFs) to map breeding habitat before and after the fire. Megafire had strong effects on the distribution of available resources and resulted in context-dependent habitat use that was heterogeneous across different components of habitat. We observed functional responses in the use and selection of a variety of resources (shrubs and herbaceous vegetation) for both nesting and brood rearing. Functional responses in the use of nesting habitat were influenced by the overarching effect of megafire on vegetation, whereas responses during brood rearing appeared to be driven by individual variation in available resources that were conditional on nest locations. Importantly, RSFs built using data collected prior to the burn also had poor transferability for predicting space use in a post-megafire landscape. These results have strong implications for understanding and predicting how animals respond to a rapidly changing environment, given that increased severity, frequency, and extent of wildfire are consequences of global change with the capacity to reshape ecosystems. We therefore demonstrate a conceptual framework to better understand space use and aid habitat conservation for wildlife in a rapidly changing world.

Backpack satellite transmitters reduce survival but not nesting propensity or success of greater sage-grouse.

Telemetry technology is ubiquitous for studying the behavior and demography of wildlife, including the use of traditional very high frequency (VHF) radio telemetry and more recent methods that record animal locations using global positioning systems (GPS). Satellite-based GPS telemetry allows researchers to collect high spatial-temporal resolution data remotely but may also come with additional costs. For example, recent studies from the southern Great Basin suggested GPS transmitters attached via backpacks may reduce the survival of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) relative to VHF transmitters attached via collars that have been in use for decades. While some evidence suggests GPS backpacks reduce survival, no studies have examined the effects of GPS backpacks on breeding behavior and success. Therefore, we compared survival, breeding behavior, and nest success of sage-grouse hens marked with both VHF collars and GPS backpack transmitter over a 7-year period in central Idaho, USA. GPS backpacks reduced spring-summer survival of sage-grouse hens relative to hens with VHF collars, where daily mortality probability was 68%-82% higher from March 1 to August 1. Yet satellite GPS backpacks did not consistently affect nest success or the likelihood or timing of nest initiation relative to VHF collars. Daily nest survival varied annually and with timing of nest initiation and nest age, but marginal effects of transmitter type were statistically insignificant and interactions between transmitter type and study year produced no meaningful patterns. Our results corroborate recent studies for the effect of satellite GPS backpacks on sage-grouse survival, but also suggest that these transmitters do not appear to affect components of fecundity. Our results therefore add important context to recent debate surrounding the effects of GPS backpacks on sage-grouse, and the relative strengths and weaknesses of different transmitter types for understanding behavior and population dynamics.

Performance of spatial capture-recapture models with repurposed data: Assessing estimator robustness for retrospective applications.

Advancements in statistical ecology offer the opportunity to gain further inferences from existing data with minimal financial cost. Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models extend traditional capture-recapture models to incorporate spatial position of capture and enable direct estimation of animal densities across a region of interest. The additional inferences provided are both ecologically interesting and valuable for decision making, which has resulted in traditional capture-recapture data being repurposed using SCR. Yet, many capture-recapture studies were not designed for SCR and the limitations of repurposing data from such studies are rarely assessed in practice. We used simulation to evaluate the robustness of SCR for retrospectively estimating large mammal densities over a variety of scenarios using repurposed capture-recapture data collected by an asymmetrical sampling grid and covering a broad spatial extent in a heterogenous landscape. We found performance of SCR models fit using repurposed data simulated from the existing grid was not robust, but instead bias and precision of density estimates varied considerably among simulations scenarios. For example, while the smallest relatives bias of density estimates was 3%, it ranged by 14 orders of magnitude among scenarios and was most strongly influenced by detection parameters. Our results caution against the casual repurposing of non-spatial capture-recapture data using SCR and demonstrate the importance of using simulation to assessing model performance during retrospective applications.

Spatial-temporal dynamics of hunter effort for wild turkeys in Michigan.

Wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo; hereafter turkeys) are an important game animal whose popularity among hunters has increased in recent decades. Yet, the number of hunters pursuing turkeys appears to be in flux, patterns of hunter abundance have primarily been described at broad spatial scales, and the ability of management to impact hunter numbers in the post-restoration era of management through opportunity for quality hunting is unclear. We used county-scale estimates of turkey hunter numbers collected over a 14-year period (2001-2014) and time-series analyses to evaluate the spatial scales at which spring and fall turkey hunter populations fluctuate, and also used generalized linear mixed models to evaluate whether attributes related to quality turkey hunting explain recent patterns in hunter abundance. We found heterogeneity in turkey hunter population growth at finer spatial scales than has been previously described (i.e., counties and management units), and provide evidence for spatial structuring of hunter population dynamics among counties that did not always correspond with existing management units. Specifically, the directionality of hunter population change displays spatial structure along an east-west gradient in southern Michigan. We also found little evidence that factors providing opportunity for quality turkey hunting had meaningful impacts on recent spatial-temporal patterns of hunter numbers. Our results imply that providing quality turkey hunting opportunities alone may be insufficient for sustaining populations of turkey hunters in the future, and that modern determinants of hunter participation extend beyond the availability of abundant turkey populations. Moreover, our results demonstrate that interpretation of harvest data as indices of abundance for turkey populations is difficult in the absence of hunter effort data, as changes to turkey harvest are a function of potentially fine-scaled changes in populations of hunters, not simply changes to turkey populations.