The current and projected economic burden of Parkinson's disease in the United States.

Parkinson's disease (PD), following Alzheimer's disease, is the second-most common neurodegenerative disorder in the United States. A lack of treatment options for changing the trajectory of disease progression, in combination with an increasing elderly population, portends a rising economic burden on patients and payers. This study combined information from nationally representative surveys to create a burden of PD model. The model estimates disease prevalence, excess healthcare use and medical costs, and nonmedical costs for each demographic group defined by age and sex. Estimated prevalence rates and costs were applied to the U.S. Census Bureau's 2010 to 2050 population data to estimate current and projected burden based on changing demographics. We estimate that approximately 630,000 people in the United States had diagnosed PD in 2010, with diagnosed prevalence likely to double by 2040. The national economic burden of PD exceeds $14.4 billion in 2010 (approximately $22,800 per patient). The population with PD incurred medical expenses of approximately $14 billion in 2010, $8.1 billion higher ($12,800 per capita) than expected for a similar population without PD. Indirect costs (e.g., reduced employment) are conservatively estimated at $6.3 billion (or close to $10,000 per person with PD). The burden of chronic conditions such as PD is projected to grow substantially over the next few decades as the size of the elderly population grows. Such projections give impetus to the need for innovative new treatments to prevent, delay onset, or alleviate symptoms of PD and other similar diseases.

Value of lifestyle intervention to prevent diabetes and sequelae.

BACKGROUND: The Community Preventive Services Task Force recommends combined diet and physical activity promotion programs for people at increased risk of type 2 diabetes, as evidence continues to show that intensive lifestyle interventions are effective for overweight individuals with prediabetes. PURPOSE: To illustrate the potential clinical and economic benefits of treating prediabetes with lifestyle intervention to prevent or delay onset of type 2 diabetes and sequelae. METHODS: This 2014 analysis used a Markov model to simulate disease onset, medical expenditures, economic outcomes, mortality, and quality of life for a nationally representative sample with prediabetes from the 2003-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Modeled scenarios used 10-year follow-up results from the lifestyle arm of the Diabetes Prevention Program and Outcomes Study versus simulated natural history of disease. RESULTS: Over 10 years, estimated average cumulative gross economic benefits of treating patients who met diabetes screening criteria recommended by the ADA ($26,800) or USPSTF ($24,700) exceeded average benefits from treating the entire prediabetes population ($17,800). Estimated cumulative, gross medical savings for these three populations averaged $10,400, $11,200, and $6,300, respectively. Published estimates suggest that opportunistic screening for prediabetes is inexpensive, and lifestyle intervention similar to the Diabetes Prevention Program can be achieved for ≤$2,300 over 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Lifestyle intervention among people with prediabetes produces long-term societal benefits that exceed anticipated intervention costs, especially among prediabetes patients that meet the ADA and USPSTF screening guidelines.

Estimated demand for women's health services by 2020.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the demand for women's health care by 2020 using today's national utilization standards. METHODS: This descriptive study incorporated the most current national data resources to design a simulation model to create a health and economic profile for a representative sample of women from each state. Demand was determined utilizing equations about projected use of obstetrics-gynecology (ob-gyn) services. Applying patient profile and health care demand equations, we estimated the demand for providers in 2010 in each state for comparison with supply based on the 2010 American Medical Association Masterfile. U.S. Census Bureau population projections were used to project women's health care demands in 2020. RESULTS: The national demand for women's health care is forecast to grow by 6% by 2020. Most (81%) ob-gyn related services will be for women of reproductive age (18-44 years old). Growth in demand is forecast to be highest in states with the greatest population growth (Texas, Florida), where supply is currently less than adequate (western United States), and among Hispanic women. This increase in demand by 2020 will translate into a need for physicians or nonphysician clinicians, which is clinically equivalent to 2,090 full-time ob-gyns. CONCLUSION: Using today's national norms of ob-gyn related services, a modest growth in women's health care demands is estimated by 2020 that will require a larger provider workforce.

An aging population and growing disease burden will require a large and specialized health care workforce by 2025.

As the US population ages, the increasing prevalence of chronic disease and complex medical conditions will have profound implications for the future health care system. We projected future prevalence of selected diseases and health risk factors to model future demand for health care services for each person in a representative sample of the current and projected future population. Based on changing demographic characteristics and expanded medical coverage under the Affordable Care Act, we project that the demand for adult primary care services will grow by approximately 14 percent between 2013 and 2025. Vascular surgery has the highest projected demand growth (31 percent), followed by cardiology (20 percent) and neurological surgery, radiology, and general surgery (each 18 percent). Market indicators such as long wait times to obtain appointments suggest that the current supply of many specialists throughout the United States is inadequate to meet the current demand. Failure to train sufficient numbers and the correct mix of specialists could exacerbate already long wait times for appointments, reduce access to care for some of the nation's most vulnerable patients, and reduce patients' quality of life.

Supply and demand analysis of the current and future US neurology workforce.

OBJECTIVE: This study estimates current and projects future neurologist supply and demand under alternative scenarios nationally and by state from 2012 through 2025. METHODS: A microsimulation supply model simulates likely career choices of individual neurologists, taking into account the number of new neurologists trained each year and changing demographics of the neurology workforce. A microsimulation demand model simulates utilization of neurology services for each individual in a representative sample of the population in each state and for the United States as a whole. Demand projections reflect increased prevalence of neurologic conditions associated with population growth and aging, and expanded coverage under health care reform. RESULTS: The estimated active supply of 16,366 neurologists in 2012 is projected to increase to 18,060 by 2025. Long wait times for patients to see a neurologist, difficulty hiring new neurologists, and large numbers of neurologists who do not accept new Medicaid patients are consistent with a current national shortfall of neurologists. Demand for neurologists is projected to increase from ∼18,180 in 2012 (11% shortfall) to 21,440 by 2025 (19% shortfall). This includes an increased demand of 520 full-time equivalent neurologists starting in 2014 from expanded medical insurance coverage associated with the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of efforts to increase the number of neurology professionals and retain the existing workforce, current national and geographic shortfalls of neurologists are likely to worsen, exacerbating long wait times and reducing access to care for Medicaid beneficiaries. Current geographic differences in adequacy of supply likely will persist into the future.