Targeting the impact of agri-environmental policy - Future scenarios in two less favoured areas in Portugal.

Targeting agri-environmental measures (AEM) improves their effectiveness in the delivery of public goods, provided the necessary coordination with other incentives. In less favoured areas (LFA) measures focusing on the conservation of extensive farming contribute to sustainable land management in these areas. In this paper we investigate the implementation of a possible AEM supporting the improvement of permanent pastures coordinated with the extensive livestock and single farm payments actually in place. Through applying a spatially-explicit mixed integer optimisation model we simulate future land use scenarios for two less favoured areas in Portugal (Centro and Alentejo) considering two policy scenarios: a 'targeted AEM', and a 'non-targeted AEM'. We then compare the results with a 'basic policy' option (reflecting a situation without AEM). This is done with regard to landscape-scale effects on the reduction of fire hazard and erosion risk, as well as effects on farm income. The results show that an AEM for permanent pastures would be more cost-effective for erosion and fire hazard mitigation if implemented within a spatially targeted framework. However when cost-effectiveness is assessed with other indicators (e.g. net farm income and share of grazing livestock) 'non-targeted AEM' implementation delivers the best outcome in Alentejo. In Centro the implementation of an AEM involves important losses of income compared to the 'basic policy'. 'Targeted AEM' tends to favour farms in very marginal conditions, i.e. targeting is demonstrated to perform best in landscapes where spatial heterogeneity is higher. The results also show the risk of farm abandonment in the two studied less favoured areas: in all three scenarios more than 30% of arable land is deemed to be abandoned.

Farmers' perceptions of land degradation and their investments in land management: a case study in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia.

To combat land degradation in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia, farmers are of crucial importance. If farmers perceive land degradation as a problem, the chance that they invest in land management measures will be enhanced. This study presents farmers' perceptions of land degradation and their investments in land management, and to what extent the latter are influenced by these perceptions. Water erosion and fertility depletion are taken as main indicators of land degradation, and the results show that farmers perceive an increase in both indicators over the last decade. They are aware of it and consider it as a problem. Nevertheless, farmers' investments to control water erosion and soil fertility depletion are very limited in the CRV. Results also show that farmers' awareness of both water erosion and soil fertility decline as a problem is not significantly associated with their investments in land management. Hence, even farmers who perceive land degradation on their fields and are concerned about its increase over the last decade do not significantly invest more in water erosion and soil fertility control measures than farmers who do not perceive these phenomena. Further research is needed to assess which other factors might influence farmers' investments in land management, especially factors related to socioeconomic characteristics of farm households and plot characteristics which were not addressed by this study.

Beyond the desertification narrative: a framework for agricultural drought in semi-arid East Africa.

In the 20th century, much research was done on desertification. Desertification developed into a complex and vague construct that means land degradation under specific conditions. Projects focusing on land degradation in semiarid East Africa have met with limited success because farmers prioritize drought as the major productivity-reducing problem. Yet studies on long-term rainfall trends have not confirmed that droughts are more frequent. In this article, we combine drought and land degradation effects into an Agricultural Drought Framework, which departs from the farmers' prioritization of drought and accommodates scientists' concern for land degradation. It includes meteorological drought, soil water drought, and soil nutrient drought. The framework increases insight into how different land degradation processes influence the vulnerability of land and farmers to drought. A focus on increased rainwater use efficiency will address both problems of land degradation and drought, thereby improving productivity and food security in semiarid East Africa.

Spatial heterogeneity and irreversible vegetation change in semiarid grazing systems.

Recent theoretical studies have shown that spatial redistribution of surface water may explain the occurrence of patterns of alternating vegetated and degraded patches in semiarid grasslands. These results implied, however, that spatial redistribution processes cannot explain the collapse of production on coarser scales observed in these systems. We present a spatially explicit vegetation model to investigate possible mechanisms explaining irreversible vegetation collapse on coarse spatial scales. The model results indicate that the dynamics of vegetation on coarse scales are determined by the interaction of two spatial feedback processes. Loss of plant cover in a certain area results in increased availability of water in remaining vegetated patches through run-on of surface water, promoting within-patch plant production. Hence, spatial redistribution of surface water creates negative feedback between reduced plant cover and increased plant growth in remaining vegetation. Reduced plant cover, however, results in focusing of herbivore grazing in the remaining vegetation. Hence, redistribution of herbivores creates positive feedback between reduced plant cover and increased losses due to grazing in remaining vegetated patches, leading to collapse of the entire vegetation. This may explain irreversible vegetation shifts in semiarid grasslands on coarse spatial scales.

OLIVERO: the project analysing the future of olive production systems on sloping land in the Mediterranean basin.

From 2003 to 2006, a consortium of six European partners analysed the future of olive production systems on sloping land in the Mediterranean basin. Olive production on such land dates back to pre-Roman times, but the production systems (known by the acronym SMOPS, for "Sloping and Mountainous Olive Production Systems"), are under threat. Many are unsustainable environmentally (erosion hazard), socially (exodus of young people) or economically (high labour costs). The OLIVERO research project was possible thanks to a grant of euro1.5 million from the European Union, which gives out euro2.5 billion in subsidies annually for olive production. An extended survey conducted by the project in five sites in Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece revealed the diversity and multifunctionality of SMOPS. Four main systems were identified as important for the future: traditional, organic, semi-intensive and intensive. The conceptual framework of OLIVERO involved six phases, ranging from the initial survey up to policy recommendations. In all phases there was intensive contact with stakeholders and institutions. End-users were identified at three levels: local, intermediate and regional, and national/international. This paper presents the highlights of the physical analysis of land and water resources, crop and land management, and economics and policies. Scenario studies gave insight into the possible future: some SMOPS will be gradually abandoned or transformed into nature conservation areas, others will exploit drip irrigation and follow the intensification patterns of agriculture in the valleys, and a third group will continue to be managed more extensively, perhaps augmenting their income with other activities (possibly off-farm) or turning to organic production systems. At the five international OLIVERO meetings held from 2003 to 2006, knowledge, experience and ideas on the future of olive production systems were intensively exchanged. A network was established for ongoing and future cooperation. Two end-user seminars were held in Matera (Italy) and Lisbon. Over 70 scientific papers have been published.

Long-term dynamics in land resource use and the driving forces in the Beressa watershed, highlands of Ethiopia.

Land degradation in the Ethiopian highlands is considered to be one of the major problems threatening agricultural development and food security in the country. However, knowledge about the forces driving the long-term dynamics in land resources use is limited. This research integrates biophysical information with socio-economic processes and policy changes to examine the dynamics of land resource use and farmers' livelihoods in the Beressa watershed for over 40 years during the second half of the 20th century. It was found that there have been substantial dynamics in land resource use in the area. The natural vegetation cover has been extensively cleared, although most of the cleared areas have since been replaced with plantations. Grazing land has expanded remarkably at the expense of cropland and bare land. However, the expansion of cropland was minimal over the 43-year period despite a quadrupling of the population density. Yields have not increased to compensate for the reduction in per capita cropland, and the soil quality appears to be not that good. Though the farmers perceived it otherwise, the long-term rainfall pattern has improved. In response to soil degradation, water shortage, socio-economic and policy changes, farmers have tended to gradually change from annual cropping to tree planting and livestock production to cope with the problems of soil degradation, water scarcity and smaller farms. Income diversification through the sale of wood and cattle dung is becoming a major livelihood strategy. Apparently, however, little attention has been paid to investments in soil and water conservation (SWC) and local soil fertility amendments. In particular, increased erosion and related high nutrient losses in sediments, as well as the removal of potentially available soil nutrients through the sale of manure threatens to damage agricultural sustainability in the area.