Risk Factors for Second Primary Cancer in a Prospective Cohort of Endometrial Cancer Survivors: an Alberta Endometrial Cancer Cohort Study.

We examined associations between modifiable and non-modifiable cancer-related risk factors measured at endometrial cancer diagnosis and during early survivorship (~3 years post-diagnosis) with second primary cancer (SPC) risk among 533 endometrial cancer survivors in the Alberta Endometrial Cancer Cohort using Fine and Gray sub-distribution hazard models. During a median follow-up of 16.7 years (interquartile range (IQR)=12.2-17.9), 89 (17%) participants developed a SPC with breast (29%), colorectal (13%) and lung (12%) cancers being the most common. Dietary glycemic load before endometrial cancer diagnosis (≥90.4 vs. <90.4 g/day: sub-hazard ratios (sHR)=1.71, 95% confidence intervals (CI)=1.09-2.69) as well as older age (≥60 vs. <60: sHR=2.48, 95% CI=1.34-4.62) and alcohol intake (≥2 drink/week vs. none: sHR=3.81, 95% CI=1.55-9.31) during early survivorship were associated with increased SPC risk. Additionally, reductions in alcohol consumption from prediagnosis to early survivorship significantly reduced SPC risk (sHR=0.34, 95% CI=0.14-0.82). With one-in-six survivors developing a SPC, further investigation of SPC risk factors and targeted surveillance options for high-risk survivors could improve long-term health outcomes in this population. Reductions in dietary glycemic load and alcohol intake from prediagnosis to early survivorship showed promising risk reductions for SPCs and could be important modifiable risk factors to target among endometrial cancer survivors.

The association between neighborhood-level income and cancer stage at diagnosis and survival in Alberta.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with a range of health outcomes, including cancer diagnosis and survival. However, the evidence for this association is inconsistent between countries with and without single-payer health care systems. In this study, the relationships between neighborhood-level income, cancer stage at diagnosis, and cancer-specific mortality in Alberta, Canada, were evaluated. METHODS: The Alberta Cancer Registry was used to identify all primary cancer diagnoses between 2010 and 2020. Average neighborhood income was determined by linking the Canadian census to postal codes and was categorized into quintiles on the basis of income distribution in Alberta. Multivariable multinomial logistic regression was used to model the association between income quintile and stage at diagnosis, and the Fine-Gray proportional subdistribution hazards model was used to estimate the association between SES and cancer-specific mortality. RESULTS: Out of the 143,818 patients with cancer included in the study, those in lower income quintiles were significantly more likely to be diagnosed at stage III (odds ratio [OR], 1.07; 95% CI [confidence interval], 1.06-1.09) or IV (OR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.11-1.14) after adjusting for age and sex. Lower income quintiles also had significantly worse cancer-specific survival for breast, colorectal, liver, lung, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, oral cavity, pancreas, and prostate cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Disparities were observed in cancer outcomes across neighborhood-level income groups in Alberta, which demonstrates that health inequities by SES exist in countries with single-payer health care systems. Further research is needed to better understand the underlying causes and to develop strategies to mitigate these disparities.

Association between treatment and improvements in overall survival of patients with advanced/metastatic non-small cell lung cancer since 2011: A study in the United States, Canada, and Germany using retrospective real-world databases.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to describe treatment patterns and overall survival (OS) in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC) in three countries between 2011 and 2020. METHODS: Three databases (US, Canada, Germany) were used to identify incident aNSCLC patients. OS was assessed from the date of incident aNSCLC diagnosis and, for patients who received at least a first line of therapy (1LOT), from the date of 1LOT initiation. In multivariable analyses, we analyzed the influence of index year and type of prescribed treatment on OS. FINDINGS: We included 51,318 patients with an incident aNSCLC diagnosis. The percentage of patients treated with a 1LOT differed substantially between countries, whereas the number of patients receiving immunotherapies/targeted treatments increased over time in all three countries. Median OS from the date of incident diagnosis was 9.9 months in the United States vs. 4.1 months in Canada. When measured from the start of 1LOT, patients had a median OS of 10.7 months in the United States, 10.9 months in Canada, and 10.9 months in Germany. OS from the start of 1LOT improved in all three countries from 2011 to 2020 by approximately 3 to 4 months. CONCLUSIONS: Observed continuous improvement in OS among patients receiving at least a 1LOT from 2011 to 2020 was likely driven by improved care and changes in the treatment landscape. The difference in the proportion of patients receiving a 1LOT in the observed countries requires further investigation.

Text analysis framework for identifying mutations among non-small cell lung cancer patients from laboratory data.

BACKGROUND: Laboratory data can provide great value to support research aimed at reducing the incidence, prolonging survival and enhancing outcomes of cancer. Data is characterized by the information it carries and the format it holds. Data captured in Alberta's biomarker laboratory repository is free text, cluttered and rouge. Such data format limits its utility and prohibits broader adoption and research development. Text analysis for information extraction of unstructured data can change this and lead to more complete analyses. Previous work on extracting relevant information from free text, unstructured data employed Natural Language Processing (NLP), Machine Learning (ML), rule-based Information Extraction (IE) methods, or a hybrid combination between them. METHODS: In our study, text analysis was performed on Alberta Precision Laboratories data which consisted of 95,854 entries from the Southern Alberta Dataset (SAD) and 6944 entries from the Northern Alberta Dataset (NAD). The data covers all of Alberta and is completely population-based. Our proposed framework is built around rule-based IE methods. It incorporates topics such as Syntax and Lexical analyses to achieve deterministic extraction of data from biomarker laboratory data (i.e., Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) test results). Lexical analysis compromises of data cleaning and pre-processing, Rich Text Format text conversion into readable plain text format, and normalization and tokenization of text. The framework then passes the text into the Syntax analysis stage which includes the rule-based method of extracting relevant data. Rule-based patterns of the test result are identified, and a Context Free Grammar then generates the rules of information extraction. Finally, the results are linked with the Alberta Cancer Registry to support real-world cancer research studies. RESULTS: Of the original 5512 entries in the SAD dataset and 5017 entries in the NAD dataset which were filtered for EGFR, the framework yielded 5129 and 3388 extracted EGFR test results from the SAD and NAD datasets, respectively. An accuracy of 97.5% was achieved on a random sample of 362 tests. CONCLUSIONS: We presented a text analysis framework to extract specific information from unstructured clinical data. Our proposed framework has shown that it can successfully extract relevant information from EGFR test results.

Development and Validation of a Prognostic Risk Model for Patients with Advanced Melanoma Treated with Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors.

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification tools for patients with advanced melanoma (AM) treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) are lacking. We identified a new prognostic model associated with overall survival (OS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 318 treatment naïve patients with AM receiving ICI were collected from a multi-centre retrospective cohort study. LASSO Cox regression identified independent prognostic factors associated with OS. Model validation was carried out on 500 iterations of bootstrapped samples. Harrel's C-index was calculated and internally validated to outline the model's discriminatory performance. External validation was carried out in 142 advanced melanoma patients receiving ICI in later lines. RESULTS: High white blood cell count (WBC), high lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), low albumin, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status ≥1, and the presence of liver metastases were included in the model. Patients were parsed into 3 risk groups: favorable (0-1 factors) OS of 52.9 months, intermediate (2-3 factors) OS 13.0 months, and poor (≥4 factors) OS 2.7 months. The C-index of the model from the discovery cohort was 0.69. External validation in later-lines (N = 142) of therapy demonstrated a c-index of 0.65. CONCLUSIONS: Liver metastases, low albumin, high LDH, high WBC, and ECOG≥1 can be combined into a prognostic model for AM patients treated with ICI.

Time spent in the sun and the risk of developing non-Hodgkin lymphoma: a Canadian cohort study.

PURPOSE: The objective was to explore the relationship of sun behavior patterns with the risk of developing non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). METHODS: Sun behavior information from Alberta's Tomorrow Project, CARTaGENE, and Ontario Health Study were utilized. The relationship between time in the sun during summer months and risk of NHL was assessed using Cox proportional hazard models with age as the time scale and adjustment for confounders. Cohorts were analyzed separately and hazard ratios (HR) pooled with random effects meta-analysis. Joint effects of time in the sun and use of sun protection were examined. Patterns of exposure were explored via combinations of weekday and weekend time in the sun. RESULTS: During an average follow-up of 7.6 years, 205 NHL cases occurred among study participants (n = 79,803). Compared to < 30 min daily in the sun, we observed HRs of 0.84 (95% CI 0.55-1.28) for 30-59 min, 0.63 (95% CI 0.40-0.98) for 1-2 h, and 0.91 (95% CI 0.61-1.36) for > 2 h. There was suggestive evidence that > 2 h was protective against NHL with use of sun protection, but not without it. Compared to < 30 min daily, moderate exposure (30 min to 2 h on weekdays or weekend) was associated with a lower risk of NHL (HR 0.63, 95% CI 0.43-0.92), while intermittent (< 30 min on weekdays and > 2 h on weekends) and chronic (> 2 h daily) were not. CONCLUSION: This study provides evidence of a protective effect of moderate time spent in the sun on NHL risk.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer diagnoses, stage and survival in Alberta.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic is suspected to have affected cancer care and outcomes among patients in Canada. In this study, we evaluated the impact of the state of emergency period during the COVID-19 pandemic (Mar. 17 to June 15, 2020) on cancer diagnoses, stage at diagnosis and 1-year survival in Alberta. METHODS: We included new diagnoses of the 10 most prevalent cancer types from Jan. 1, 2018, to Dec. 31, 2020. We followed patients up to Dec. 31, 2021. We used interrupted time series analysis to examine the impact of the first COVID-19-related state of emergency in Alberta on the number of cancer diagnoses. We used multivariable Cox regression to compare 1-year survival of the patients who received a diagnosis during 2020 after the state of emergency with those who received a diagnosis during 2018 and 2019. We also performed stage-specific analyses. RESULTS: We observed significant reductions in diagnoses of breast cancer (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.67, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.59-0.76), prostate cancer (IRR 0.64, 95% CI 0.56-0.73) and colorectal cancer (IRR 0.64, 95% CI 0.56- 0.74) and melanoma (IRR 0.57, 95% CI 0.47-0.69) during the state of emergency period compared with the period before it. These decreases largely occurred among early-stage rather than late-stage diagnoses. Patients who received a diagnosis of colorectal cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma and uterine cancer in 2020 had lower 1-year survival than those diagnosed in 2018; no other cancer sites had lower survival. INTERPRETATION: The results from our analyses suggest that health care disruptions during the COVID-19 pandemic in Alberta considerably affected cancer outcomes. Given that the largest impact was observed among early-stage cancers and those with organized screening programs, additional system capacity may be needed to mitigate future impact.

Risk Factors for Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Despite the widespread increase in the incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (EoCRC), the reasons for this increase remain unclear. The objective of this study was to determine risk factors for the development of EoCRC. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of studies examining non-genetic risk factors for EoCRC, including demographic factors, comorbidities, and lifestyle factors. Random effects meta-analyses were conducted for risk factors that were examined in at least three studies. Heterogeneity was investigated using the Q-test and I2 statistic. RESULTS: From 3304 initial citations, 20 studies were included in this review. Significant risk factors for EoCRC included CRC history in a first-degree relative (RR 4.21, 95% CI 2.61-6.79), hyperlipidemia (RR 1.62, 95% CI 1.22-2.13), obesity (RR 1.54, 95% CI 1.01-2.35), and alcohol consumption (high vs. non-drinkers) (RR 1.71, 95% CI 1.62-1.80). While smoking was suggestive as a risk factor, the association was not statistically significant (RR 1.35, 95% CI 0.81-2.25). With the exception of alcohol consumption, there was considerable heterogeneity among studies (I2 > 60%). Other potential risk factors included hypertension, metabolic syndrome, ulcerative colitis, chronic kidney disease, dietary factors, sedentary behaviour, and occupational exposure to organic dusts, but these were only examined in one or two studies. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study advance the understanding of the etiology of EoCRC. High-quality studies conducted on generalizable populations and that comprehensively examine risk factors for EoCRC are required to inform primary and secondary prevention strategies.

Early-Onset Colorectal Cancer Incidence, Staging, and Mortality in Canada: Implications for Population-Based Screening.

INTRODUCTION: The incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer (eoCRC) has been increasing in North America. Debate remains as to whether the trends by topography, histology, stage, or mortality in this population are amenable to intervention from screening. METHODS: CRC incidence (2000-2017) and mortality (2000-2018) data were obtained from the Canadian Cancer Registry and Vital Statistics. Annual percentage changes (APC) in the incidence (topography and histology) and mortality of eoCRC were estimated using joinpoint regression. Incidence of late-stage CRC (III or IV) versus early-stage CRC (I or II) was compared between the eoCRC (age 20-49 years) and eligible screening (age 50-74 years) groups with Poisson regression. RESULTS: Among women aged 20-49 years, the incidence of CRC significantly increased from 2000 to 2017 in both the distal colon (APC = 1.40) and rectum (APC = 3.00), whereas for men aged 20-49 years, the CRC incidence increased in the proximal colon (APC = 1.10), distal colon (APC = 3.00), and rectum (APC = 3.70). Among both men and women aged 20-49 years, the incidence of nonmucinous adenocarcinomas significantly increased (APC: 1.90 and 2.30, respectively), whereas mucinous adenocarcinomas decreased for women (APC = -1.60) and remained stable for men. Adults aged 30 to 49 years, when diagnosed with CRC, had a significantly higher risk of being diagnosed with a late-stage CRC compared with those in the age group of 50-74 years. Rectal cancer mortality increased from 2000 to 2018 in the eoCRC group (APC for women and men 3.80 and 3.40, respectively). DISCUSSION: Emerging data support future modifications to guidelines on screening for eoCRC in Canada. Further research is required on the effect, cost-effectiveness, and risk prediction for targeted screening within this group.

Implications of the United States recommendations for early-age-at-onset colorectal cancer screening in Canada.

The United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recently issued an updated recommendation for population-based colorectal cancer (CRC) screening starting at age 45, due to a sustained increase in the incidence of early-age-at-onset CRC (eoCRC). A similar increase in the incidence of eoCRC has been observed in Canada since the early 2000s. However, the inherent differences between the US and Canadian health care systems with many different reimbursement and capacity considerations limit the applicability of the recommendations to the Canadian context. In order to facilitate further discussion around Canadian guidelines and recommendations, several research gaps need to be addressed: 1) a detailed understanding of trends in histology, topography, initial stage at diagnosis, and mortality among eoCRC; 2) a detailed analysis of cost-effectiveness outlining the impacts to the current screening programs with potential harms and benefits; 3) a comprehensive understanding of risk factor profiles that may lead to meaningful recommendations for screening decisions within the 40-49 age group in the absence of wide-spread screening programs; and 4) an evaluation of the effectiveness of current and novel screening tests or biomarkers specifically in the 40-49 age group. In the meantime, we suggest that physicians and patients begin discussions about screening at age 45 by reviewing family history and alerting patients to symptoms of CRC, which may increase screening adherence at age 50. This issue will remain an active area of debate with Canada as a careful laggard in changing recommendations, while attempting to balance system considerations with eoCRC trends and patient outcomes.

The efficacy of chemopreventive agents on the incidence of colorectal adenomas: A systematic review and network meta-analysis.

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the fourth most common cancer and third leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Use of chemopreventive agents (CPAs) to reduce the incidence of precursor colorectal adenomas could lower the future burden of CRC. Many classes of potential CPAs have been investigated. To identify the most effective CPAs, we conducted a systematic review and a network meta-analysis (NMA). An electronic search was performed through August 2020 to identify all randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing the efficacy of CPAs in reducing the incidence of colorectal adenomas at the time of surveillance colonoscopy among patients who had previously undergone polypectomy during an index colonoscopy. In total, 33 RCTs were included in the NMA, which was conducted under a Bayesian inference framework. Random effects models were used with adjustment for follow-up length and control group event rates to yield relative risks (RRs) and 95% credible intervals (CrIs). Our full network consisted of 13 interventions in addition to a placebo arm. Of 20,925 included patients, 7766 had an adenoma. Compared to placebo, the combination of difluoromethylornithine (DFMO) + Sulindac (RR 0.24, CrI 0.10-0.55) demonstrated a protective effect, while aspirin had a RR of 0.77 (CrI 0.60-1.00), celecoxib 800 mg had a RR of 0.56 (CrI 0.31-1.01) and metformin had a RR of 0.56 (CrI 0.22-1.39). Our results suggest that select CPAs may be efficacious in preventing the development of adenomas. Further studies are needed to identify those patients most likely to benefit and the minimum effective dosages of CPAs.

Long-term Use of Hormone Replacement Therapy is Associated With a Lower Risk of Developing High-risk Serrated Polyps in Women.

GOALS/BACKGROUND: Hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and parity have been suggested protective factors against the development of colorectal polyps. However, there are a limited number of studies that have examined the relationship of these factors with high-risk adenomatous polyps (HRAP) or high-risk serrated polyps (HRSP), which may have different causes and therefore implications for screening programs. STUDY: Data from a cross-sectional study of 1384 women undergoing screening-related colonoscopy between 2008 and 2016 were analyzed. Modified Poisson regression models with robust error variance were used to determine the relative risk of developing adenomatous polyps, serrated polyps, HRAPs, and HRSPs associated with pregnancy, menopausal status, and the use of HRT (duration and type). RESULTS: Women that used HRT for ≥6 years were at a significantly lower risk of developing a HRSP [risk ratios (RR): 0.53; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.29-0.97]. Irrespective of the duration of use, the use of HRT that included progesterone alone or with estrogen was associated with a significantly lower risk of developing a HRSP (RR: 0.54; 95% CI: 0.30-0.95). The use HRT with progesterone for ≥6 years was associated with a nonsignificant lower risk of developing a HRSP (RR: 0.42; 95% CI: 0.17-1.04). None of the reproductive factors assessed or HRT were associated with the development of adenomatous polyps or HRAPs. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study suggests that the long-term use of HRT, and therapies that include progesterone are associated with a lower risk of developing HRSPs. These results could have implications for targeted screening for serrated polyps among women.

Evaluating the utility of tumour mutational signatures for identifying hereditary colorectal cancer and polyposis syndrome carriers.

OBJECTIVE: Germline pathogenic variants (PVs) in the DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes and in the base excision repair gene MUTYH underlie hereditary colorectal cancer (CRC) and polyposis syndromes. We evaluated the robustness and discriminatory potential of tumour mutational signatures in CRCs for identifying germline PV carriers. DESIGN: Whole-exome sequencing of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) CRC tissue was performed on 33 MMR germline PV carriers, 12 biallelic MUTYH germline PV carriers, 25 sporadic MLH1 methylated MMR-deficient CRCs (MMRd controls) and 160 sporadic MMR-proficient CRCs (MMRp controls) and included 498 TCGA CRC tumours. COSMIC V3 single base substitution (SBS) and indel (ID) mutational signatures were assessed for their ability to differentiate CRCs that developed in carriers from non-carriers. RESULTS: The combination of mutational signatures SBS18 and SBS36 contributing >30% of a CRC's signature profile was able to discriminate biallelic MUTYH carriers from all other non-carrier control CRCs with 100% accuracy (area under the curve (AUC) 1.0). SBS18 and SBS36 were associated with specific MUTYH variants p.Gly396Asp (p=0.025) and p.Tyr179Cys (p=5×10-5), respectively. The combination of ID2 and ID7 could discriminate the 33 MMR PV carrier CRCs from the MMRp control CRCs (AUC 0.99); however, SBS and ID signatures, alone or in combination, could not provide complete discrimination (AUC 0.79) between CRCs from MMR PV carriers and sporadic MMRd controls. CONCLUSION: Assessment of SBS and ID signatures can discriminate CRCs from biallelic MUTYH carriers and MMR PV carriers from non-carriers with high accuracy, demonstrating utility as a potential diagnostic and variant classification tool.

The current burden of non-melanoma skin cancer attributable to ultraviolet radiation and related risk behaviours in Canada.

PURPOSE: Ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is an established cause of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC)-basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). The aim of this study was to estimate the current burden of BCC and SCC associated with UVR and modifiable UVR behaviours (sunburn, sunbathing, and indoor tanning) in Canada in 2015. METHODS: The current burden of BCC and SCC associated with UVR was estimated by comparing 2015 incidence rates with rates of less exposed body sites (trunk and lower limbs) after adjusting for estimated surface areas. The burden associated with modifiable UVR behaviours was estimated by using prevalence estimates among Caucasians from the Second National Sun Survey, and relative risks that are generalizable to Canadians from conducting meta-analyses of relevant studies. RESULTS: We estimated that 80.5% of BCCs and 83.0% of SCCs were attributable to UVR. Adult sunburn was associated with relative risks of 1.85 (95% CI 1.15-3.00) for BCC and 1.41 (95% CI 0.91-2.18) for SCC, while adult sunbathing was associated with relative risks of 1.82 (95% CI 1.52-2.17) for BCC and 1.14 (95% CI 0.53-2.46) for SCC. We estimated that 18.6% of BCCs and 9.9% of SCCs were attributable to adult sunburn, while 28.1% of BCCs were attributable to adult sunbathing. We estimated that 46.2% of BCCs and 17.3% of SCCs were attributable to modifiable UVR behaviours combined. CONCLUSION: Our results provide quantifiable estimates of the potentially avoidable burden of NMSCs among Canadians. These estimates can be used to motivate prevention efforts in Canada.

Examining the etiology of early-onset breast cancer in the Canadian Partnership for Tomorrow's Health (CanPath).

PURPOSE: Breast cancer incidence among younger women (under age 50) has increased over the past 25 years, yet little is known about the etiology among this age group. The objective of this study was to investigate relationships between modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors and early-onset breast cancer among three prospective Canadian cohorts. METHODS: A matched case-control study was conducted using data from Alberta's Tomorrow Project, BC Generations Project, and the Ontario Health Study. Participants diagnosed with breast cancer before age 50 were identified through provincial registries and matched to three control participants of similar age and follow-up. Conditional logistic regression was used to examine the association between factors and risk of early-onset breast cancer. RESULTS: In total, 609 cases and 1,827 controls were included. A body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2 was associated with a lower risk of early-onset breast cancer (OR 0.65; 95% CI 0.47-0.90), while a waist circumference ≥ 88 cm was associated with an increased risk (OR 1.58; 95% CI 1.18-2.11). A reduced risk was found for women with ≥ 2 pregnancies (OR 0.76; 95% CI 0.59-0.99) and a first-degree family history of breast cancer was associated with an increased risk (OR 1.95; 95% CI 1.47-2.57). CONCLUSIONS: In this study, measures of adiposity, pregnancy history, and familial history of breast cancer are important risk factors for early-onset breast cancer. Evidence was insufficient to conclude if smoking, alcohol intake, fruit and vegetable consumption, and physical activity are meaningful risk factors. The results of this study could inform targeted primary and secondary prevention for early-onset breast cancer.

The effect of acute outdoor air pollution on peak expiratory flow in individuals with asthma: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Acute exposures to outdoor air pollution have been shown to reduce lung function in children with asthma, but the effect on adults with asthma has not been established in a meta-analysis. The objective of this study was to conduct a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of studies that assessed the relationship of outdoor air pollution and peak expiratory flow (PEF) in adults with asthma. METHODS: Studies that contained data on outdoor air pollution levels (PM10, PM2.5, or NO2) and PEF in adults with asthma were eligible for inclusion. Effect estimates were quantified for each air pollution measure using random effects models. Heterogeneity was investigated with the Q-test and I2 statistics. Meta-regression and subgroup analyses were conducted to determine differences in effect by air pollution measures and the inclusion of smokers. RESULTS: A total of 22 effect estimates from 15 studies were included in this review. A 10 µg/m3 increase in acute PM10 exposure was associated with a -0.19 L/min (95% CI: 0.30, -0.09) change in PEF. For both PM10 and PM2.5, the inclusion of current smokers was a significant source of heterogeneity among studies (meta-regression: p = 0.04 and p = 0.03). Among studies that only included non-smokers, a 10 µg/m3 increase in acute exposure to PM10 and PM2.5 was associated with changes in PEF of -0.25 L/min (95% CI: 0.38, -0.13) and -1.02 L/min (95% CI: 1.79, -0.24), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence that acute increases in PM10 and PM2.5 levels are associated with decreases in PEF in adults with asthma, particularly among non-smokers.

Mutational landscape differences between young-onset and older-onset breast cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of breast cancer among young women (aged ≤40 years) has increased in North America and Europe. Fewer than 10% of cases among young women are attributable to inherited BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations, suggesting an important role for somatic mutations. This study investigated genomic differences between young- and older-onset breast tumours. METHODS: In this study we characterized the mutational landscape of 89 young-onset breast tumours (≤40 years) and examined differences with 949 older-onset tumours (> 40 years) using data from The Cancer Genome Atlas. We examined mutated genes, mutational load, and types of mutations. We used complementary R packages "deconstructSigs" and "SomaticSignatures" to extract mutational signatures. A recursively partitioned mixture model was used to identify whether combinations of mutational signatures were related to age of onset. RESULTS: Older patients had a higher proportion of mutations in PIK3CA, CDH1, and MAP3K1 genes, while young-onset patients had a higher proportion of mutations in GATA3 and CTNNB1. Mutational load was lower for young-onset tumours, and a higher proportion of these mutations were C > A mutations, but a lower proportion were C > T mutations compared to older-onset tumours. The most common mutational signatures identified in both age groups were signatures 1 and 3 from the COSMIC database. Signatures resembling COSMIC signatures 2 and 13 were observed among both age groups. We identified a class of tumours with a unique combination of signatures that may be associated with young age of onset. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this exploratory study provide some evidence that the mutational landscape and mutational signatures among young-onset breast cancer are different from those of older-onset patients. The characterization of young-onset tumours could provide clues to their etiology which may inform future prevention. Further studies are required to confirm our findings.

Estimates of the current and future burden of lung cancer attributable to residential radon exposure in Canada.

Radon is widely recognized as a human carcinogen and findings from epidemiologic studies support a causal association between residential radon exposure and lung cancer risk. Our aim was to derive population attributable risks (PAR) to estimate the numbers of incident lung cancer due to residential radon exposure in Canada in 2015. Potential impact fractions for 2042 were estimated based on a series of counterfactuals. A meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the relative risk of lung cancer per 100 Becquerels (Bq)/m3 increase in residential radon exposure, with a pooled estimate of 1.16 (95% CI: 1.07-1.24). The population distribution of annual residential radon exposure was estimated based on a national survey with adjustment for changes in the population distribution over time, the proportion of Canadians living in high-rise buildings, and to reflect annual rather than winter levels. An estimated 6.9% of lung cancer cases in 2015 were attributable to exposure to residential radon, accounting for 1741 attributable cases. If mitigation efforts were to reduce all residential radon exposures that are above current Canadian policy guidelines of 200 Bq/m3 (3% of Canadians) to 50 Bq/m3, 293 cases could be prevented in 2042, and 2322 cumulative cases could be prevented between 2016 and 2042. Our results show that mitigation that exclusively targets Canadian homes with radon exposures above current Canadian guidelines may not greatly alleviate the future projected lung cancer burden. Mitigation of residential radon levels below current guidelines may be required to substantially reduce the overall lung cancer burden in the Canadian population.

The current and future burden of cancer attributable to modifiable risk factors in Canada: Summary of results.

Nearly one in two Canadians are expected to be diagnosed with cancer in their lifetime. However, there are opportunities to reduce the impact of modifiable cancer risk factors through well-informed interventions and policies. Since no comprehensive Canadian estimates have been available previously, we estimated the proportion of cancer diagnosed in 2015 and the future burden in 2042 attributable to lifestyle and environmental factors, and infections. Population-based historical estimates of exposure prevalence and their associated risks for each exposure-cancer site pair were obtained to estimate population attributable risks, assuming the exposures were distributed independently and that the risk estimates were multiplicative. We estimated that between 33 and 37% (up to 70,000 cases) of incident cancer cases among adults aged 30 years and over in 2015 were attributable to preventable risk factors. Similar proportions of cancer cases in males (34%) and females (33%) were attributable to these risk factors. Tobacco smoking and a lack of physical activity were associated with the highest proportions of cancer cases. Cancers with the highest number of preventable cases were lung (20,100), colorectal (9800) and female breast (5300) cancer. If current trends in the prevalence of preventable risk factors continue into the future, we project that by 2042 approximately 102,000 incident cancer cases are expected to be attributable to these risk factors per year, which would account for roughly one-third of all incident cancers. Through various risk reduction interventions, policies and public health campaigns, an estimated 10,600 to 39,700 cancer cases per year could be prevented by 2042.

Estimates of the current and future burden of melanoma attributable to ultraviolet radiation in Canada.

Exposure to ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is an established cause of cutaneous melanoma. The purpose of this study was to estimate the current attributable and future avoidable burden of melanoma related to exposure to UVR and modifiable UVR risk behaviors (sunburn, sunbathing, and indoor tanning). The population attributable risk (PAR) associated with UVR in 2015 was estimated by comparing Canadian melanoma incidence rates in 2015 to estimated incidence rates of a 1920 birth cohort. Rates were adjusted for changes in reporting and ethnicity. We estimated PARs for modifiable UVR risk behaviors using Caucasian prevalence data from the Second National Sun Survey and relative risks that are generalizable to Canada from meta-analyses of relevant studies. Attributable cases apply to 98.9% of melanomas in Canada that occur in Caucasians. We also estimated the future burden of UVR risk behaviors using the potential impact fraction framework and potential reductions in prevalence of 10% to 50% from 2018 to 2042. Adult sunburn and sunbathing were associated with increased risks of melanoma of 1.28 (95% CI: 1.15, 1.43) and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.18, 1.76), respectively. In 2015, we estimate that 62.3% of melanomas in Canada were attributable to exposure to UVR and that 29.7% were attributable to the combination of sunburn (7.4%), sunbathing (17.8%), and indoor tanning (7.0%). A 50% reduction in modifiable UVR behaviors could avoid an estimated 11,980 melanoma cases by 2042. Prevention strategies aimed at modifiable UVR behaviors are crucial to reduce the growing burden of melanoma in Canada.