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1.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 121(12): e2306771121, 2024 Mar 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38466846

RESUMO

Addressing the total energy cost burden of elderly people is essential for designing equitable and effective energy policies, especially in responding to energy crisis in an aging society. It is due to the double impact of energy price hikes on households-through direct impact on fuel bills and indirect impact on the prices of goods and services consumed. However, while examining the household energy cost burden of the elderly, their indirect energy consumption and associated cost burden remain poorly understood. This study quantifies and compares the direct and indirect energy footprints and associated total energy cost burdens for different age groups across 31 developed countries. It reveals that the elderly have larger per capita energy footprints, resulting from higher levels of both direct and indirect energy consumption compared with the younger age groups. More importantly, the elderly, especially the low-income elderly, have a higher total energy cost burden rate. As the share of elderly in the total population rapidly grows in these countries, the larger per capita energy footprint and associated cost burden rate of elderly people would make these aging countries more vulnerable in times of energy crises. It is therefore crucial to develop policies that aim to reduce energy consumption and costs, improve energy efficiency, and support low-income elderly populations. Such policies are necessary to reduce the vulnerability of these aging countries to the energy crisis.


Assuntos
Características da Família , Pobreza , Humanos , Idoso , Países Desenvolvidos , Envelhecimento , Política Pública
2.
J Environ Manage ; 354: 120427, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38422569

RESUMO

Interregional free-trade of agricultural products is expected to transfer embodied (virtual) water from more to less water-productive regions. However, irrigation in semi-arid to arid regions may significantly push up agricultural productivity but cause local water scarcity. This may result in a puzzle: inter-regional trade may save overall water consumption but lead to more severe local water scarcity. An analogous puzzle may exist for farmland, for instance, trade may save farmland but not address farmland scarcity. To test the existence of these two important puzzles, we applied environmentally extended multi-regional input-output models to obtain the inter-regional virtual agricultural water and land transfer across 48 states of the conterminous U.S. and estimated their agricultural land and water footprints in 2017. Such a detailed analysis showed that while the land-abundant Midwestern states exported a sizable amount of virtual farmland to other densely populated areas and foreign nations, the water-stressed Western U.S. and Southwestern U.S. states, like California, Arizona, and New Mexico, exported considerable amounts of water-intensive crops such as fruits, vegetables and tree nuts to the Eastern U.S. and overseas, thus worsen the local water scarcity of those water scarce states. Our analysis highlights a critical dilemma inherent in an economic productivity-focused incentive regime: It frequently leads to increased withdrawal of scarce water. Therefore, resource scarcity rents need to be reflected in inter-regional trade with the support of local environmental policies.


Assuntos
Recursos Hídricos , Abastecimento de Água , Humanos , Desidratação , Agricultura , Fazendas , China
3.
Environ Sci Technol ; 57(5): 2019-2030, 2023 02 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36693189

RESUMO

Although quantitative environmental (in)justice research demonstrates a disproportionate burden of toxic chemical hazard risks among racial/ethnic minorities and people in low socioeconomic positions, limited knowledge exists on how racial/ethnic and socioeconomic groups across geographic spaces experience toxic chemical hazards. This study analyzed the spatial non-stationarity in the associations between toxic chemical hazard risk and community characteristics of census block groups in Texas, USA, for 2017 using a multiscale geographically weighted regression. The results showed that the percentage of Black or Asian population has significant positive associations with toxic risk across block groups in Texas, meaning that racial minorities suffered more from toxic risk wherever they are located in the state. By contrast, the percentage of Hispanic or Latino has a positive relationship with toxic risk, and the relationship varies locally and is only significant in eastern areas of Texas. Statistical associations between toxic risk and socioeconomic variables are not stationary across the state, showing sub-state patterns of spatial variation in terms of the sign, significant level, and magnitude of the coefficient. Income has a significant negative association with toxic risk around the Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area. Proportions of people without high school diploma and the unemployment rate both have positive relationships with toxic risk in the eastern area of Texas. Our findings highlight the importance of identifying the spatial patterns of the association between toxic chemical hazard risks and community characteristics at the census block group level for addressing environmental inequality.


Assuntos
Exposição Ambiental , Substâncias Perigosas , Grupos Minoritários , Humanos , Hispânico ou Latino , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Texas/epidemiologia , Classe Social
4.
J Environ Manage ; 278(Pt 2): 111508, 2021 Jan 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33129026

RESUMO

Responding to accelerating climate change impacts requires broad and effective engagement with stakeholders, at multiple geographic and governance levels. Stakeholder participation has been hailed as a facilitated approach in climate change adaptation that supports social learning, depolarization of perceptions, and fosters collective action. But stakeholder participation remains loosely interpreted and evaluating measures are limited. This study employs social network analysis (SNA) to investigate how social relations among stakeholders, which emerge as a result of participation, are associated with stakeholder learning, as changes in perceptions of climate change. We hypothesized that reciprocal ties of understanding, respect, and influence can predict changes in perceptions of climate change. This approach was applied to a case study in Deal Island Peninsula, Maryland (USA) where local residents, scientists, and government officials met from 2016 to 2018 to collaboratively manage the impacts of sea-level rise in their communities. We found that social relations based on mutual understanding, respect,and influence are positively associated with perceptions of climate change. We provide a detailed conceptualization and implementation of a network-based approach that may serve as a potential quantitative performance measure of stakeholder participation processes in climate change adaptation. Overall, this study provides empirical evidence of the role that emerging social relations have on enhancing or constraining social learning among stakeholders in the Deal Island Peninsula project.


Assuntos
Aclimatação , Mudança Climática , Ilhas , Maryland , Participação dos Interessados
5.
J Environ Manage ; 273: 110979, 2020 Nov 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32889312

RESUMO

Reducing inequality, eradicating poverty and achieving a carbon-neutral society are recognized as important components of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. In this study, we focus on carbon and energy inequality between and within ten Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. Detailed carbon and energy footprint were estimated by combining the consumption profiles (2014) in ten LAC countries with environmental extended multi-regional input-output (MRIO) analysis. Our results show significant inequality of regional total and per capita carbon and energy footprint across the studied LAC countries in 2014. The top 10% income category was responsible for 29.1% and 26.3% of the regional total carbon and energy footprint, and their per capita carbon and energy footprint were 12.2 and 7.5 times of the bottom 10% earners in that region. The average carbon footprint of studied LAC countries varied between 0.53 and 2.21 t CO2e/cap (ton of CO2 equivalent, per capita), and the energy footprint ranged from 0.38 to 1.76 t SOE/cap (ton of Standard Oil Equivalent, per capita). The huge difference in total and per capita carbon emissions and energy consumption of different income groups suggests notable differences in climate change responsibility, and supports policies for achieving sustainable consumption in terms of carbon tax, renewable energy subsidy, and decarbonizing the consumption structure in different LAC countries.


Assuntos
Pegada de Carbono , Carbono , Dióxido de Carbono/análise , Região do Caribe , América Latina , Fatores Socioeconômicos
6.
J Environ Manage ; 276: 111228, 2020 Dec 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32866750

RESUMO

As population and consumption grow, so does crop production and its residue. Crop residue is traditionally burned in developing countries, which impacts environment, economy, society and health. Thailand faces similar challenges as it is among the largest producers of rice paddy and sugarcane in the world with 83% of its total burnt residue coming from these crops. To address this problem, the Government of Thailand has implemented some policies (e.g. Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) and zero burning policy for sugarcane) targeting both, the use of residue, and the practice of burning. While these policies appear to control residue burning to some extent, there are still challenges, especially for poorer farmers, who rely on manual harvesting practices. The paper looks into the current status of rice and sugarcane residue burning, its impacts on the environment, existing policies, current challenges, and future solutions through sustainable management practices. To achieve reduction in residue burning, the best possible solution is to use residue for alternative purposes. Some sustainable management practices include use of residue for energy production, green harvesting to improve soil nutrients, biochar production and composting. Thailand can also learn from solutions implemented in other countries, to reduce some of the impacts of crop residue burning.


Assuntos
Oryza , Saccharum , Agricultura , Solo , Tailândia
7.
Environ Geochem Health ; 42(10): 3171-3184, 2020 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32350804

RESUMO

Numerous studies in epidemiology, meteorology, and climate change research have demonstrated a significant association between abnormal ambient temperature and mortality. However, there is a shortage of research attention to a systematic assessment of potential mitigation measures which could effectively reduce the heat-related morbidity and mortality risks. This study first illustrates a conceptualization of a systems analysis version of urban framework for climate service (UFCS). It then constructs a system dynamics (SD) model for the UFCS and employs this model to quantify the impacts of heat waves on public health system in Shanghai and to evaluate the performances of two mitigation measures in the context of a real heat wave event in July 2013 in the city. Simulation results show that in comparison with the baseline without mitigation measures, if the hospital system could prepare 20% of beds available for emergency response to heat waves once receiving the warning in advance, the number of daily deaths could be reduced by 40-60 (15.8-19.5%) on the 2 days of day 7 and day 8; if increasing the minimum living allowance of 790 RMB/month in 2013 by 20%, the number of daily deaths could be reduced by 50-70 (17.7-21.9%) on the 2 days of day 8 and day 12. This tool can help policy makers systematically evaluate adaptation and mitigation options based on performance assessment, thus strengthening urban resilience to changing climate.


Assuntos
Mudança Climática , Temperatura Alta/efeitos adversos , Mortalidade , China/epidemiologia , Cidades/epidemiologia , Calor Extremo/efeitos adversos , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , Saúde Pública , Risco , Análise de Sistemas
8.
Environ Geochem Health ; 42(3): 987-1000, 2020 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31617038

RESUMO

Chinese Medicinal Yam (CMY) has been prescribed as medicinal food for thousand years in China by Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) practitioners. Its medical benefits include nourishing the stomach and spleen to improve digestion, replenishing lung and kidney, etc., according to the TCM literature. As living standard rises and public health awareness improves in recent years, the potential medicinal benefits of CMY have attracted increasing attention in China. It has been found that the observed climate change in last several decades, together with the change in economic structure, has driven significant shift in the pattern of the traditional CMY planting areas. To identify suitable planting area for CMY in the near future is critical for ensuring the quality and supply quantity of CMY, guiding the layout of CMY industry, and safeguarding the sustainable development of CMY resources for public health. In this study, we first collect 30-year records of CMY varieties and their corresponding phenology and agro-meteorological observations. We then consolidate these data and use them to enrich and update the eco-physiological parameters of CMY in the agro-ecological zone (AEZ) model. The updated CMY varieties and AEZ model are validated using the historical planting area and production under observed climate conditions. After the successful validation, we use the updated AEZ model to simulate the potential yield of CMY and identify the suitable planting regions under future climate projections in China. This study shows that regions with high ecological similarity to the genuine and core producing areas of CMY mainly distribute in eastern Henan, southeastern Hebei, and western Shandong. The climate suitability of these areas will be improved due to global warming in the next 50 years, and therefore, they will continue to be the most suitable CMY planting regions.


Assuntos
Agricultura/métodos , Dioscorea , Plantas Medicinais , China , Mudança Climática , Dioscorea/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Dioscorea/fisiologia , Ecossistema , Modelos Teóricos
9.
Environ Sci Technol ; 53(12): 6834-6844, 2019 06 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31083929

RESUMO

Urban expansion is one of the main factors driving terrestrial carbon storage (TCS) changes. Accurate accounting of TCS and rigorous quantification of its changes caused by historical urban expansion may help us to better predict its changes in the future. This study focuses on the carbon impacts of urbanization in China where the share of the urban population has increased from 18% in 1978 to 59% in 2017 and the growing will continue in the coming decades. Our results show that China's TCS decreased at an accelerating pace over the past three decades with an average reduction of 0.72TgC/y in 1980-1990 and 8.72TgC/y in 2000-2010, mostly due to conversion from cropland and woodland to urban land. Through simulating urban expansion under four scenarios from 2010 to 2050, we found a potential increasing trend in land conversion from woodland to urban land. This conversion trend would result in carbon storage loss at an average rate of 9.31TgC/y ∼ 12.94TgC/y in 2010-2050. The increasing trend in both land conversion and carbon storage loss is especially visible in the population centers of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. Considering that the indirect emission effects of urbanization, such as farmland displacement, population migration, and land degradation, may be much larger, the overall emission impact of forthcoming urban expansion in China would increase the uncertainty of the nation's carbon emissions and potentially undermine China's targets as committed in the Paris Climate Agreement.


Assuntos
Carbono , Urbanização , China , Clima , Humanos , Rios
10.
Geophys Res Lett ; 43(22): 11786-11795, 2016 11 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28190903

RESUMO

Geoengineering has been proposed to stabilize global temperature, but its impacts on crop production and stability are not fully understood. A few case studies suggest that certain crops are likely to benefit from solar dimming geoengineering, yet we show that geoengineering is projected to have detrimental effects for groundnut. Using an ensemble of crop-climate model simulations, we illustrate that groundnut yields in India undergo a statistically significant decrease of up to 20% as a result of solar dimming geoengineering relative to RCP4.5. It is somewhat reassuring, however, to find that after a sustained period of 50 years of geoengineering crop yields return to the nongeoengineered values within a few years once the intervention is ceased.

11.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 110(28): 11654-9, 2013 Jul 09.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-23754377

RESUMO

Recent studies have shown that the high standard of living enjoyed by people in the richest countries often comes at the expense of CO2 emissions produced with technologies of low efficiency in less affluent, developing countries. Less apparent is that this relationship between developed and developing can exist within a single country's borders, with rich regions consuming and exporting high-value goods and services that depend upon production of low-cost and emission-intensive goods and services from poorer regions in the same country. As the world's largest emitter of CO2, China is a prominent and important example, struggling to balance rapid economic growth and environmental sustainability across provinces that are in very different stages of development. In this study, we track CO2 emissions embodied in products traded among Chinese provinces and internationally. We find that 57% of China's emissions are related to goods that are consumed outside of the province where they are produced. For instance, up to 80% of the emissions related to goods consumed in the highly developed coastal provinces are imported from less developed provinces in central and western China where many low-value-added but high-carbon-intensive goods are produced. Without policy attention to this sort of interprovincial carbon leakage, the less developed provinces will struggle to meet their emissions intensity targets, whereas the more developed provinces might achieve their own targets by further outsourcing. Consumption-based accounting of emissions can thus inform effective and equitable climate policy within China.

12.
Environ Sci Technol ; 48(14): 7704-13, 2014 Jul 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24922282

RESUMO

Water footprints and virtual water flows have been promoted as important indicators to characterize human-induced water consumption. However, environmental impacts associated with water consumption are largely neglected in these analyses. Incorporating water scarcity into water consumption allows better understanding of what is causing water scarcity and which regions are suffering from it. In this study, we incorporate water scarcity and ecosystem impacts into multiregional input-output analysis to assess virtual water flows and associated impacts among 30 provinces in China. China, in particular its water-scarce regions, are facing a serious water crisis driven by rapid economic growth. Our findings show that inter-regional flows of virtual water reveal additional insights when water scarcity is taken into account. Consumption in highly developed coastal provinces is largely relying on water resources in the water-scarce northern provinces, such as Xinjiang, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia, thus significantly contributing to the water scarcity in these regions. In addition, many highly developed but water scarce regions, such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Tianjin, are already large importers of net virtual water at the expense of water resource depletion in other water scarce provinces. Thus, increasingly importing water-intensive goods from other water-scarce regions may just shift the pressure to other regions, but the overall water problems may still remain. Using the water footprint as a policy tool to alleviate water shortage may only work when water scarcity is taken into account and virtual water flows from water-poor regions are identified.


Assuntos
Abastecimento de Água , China , Comércio , Ecossistema , Água , Ciclo Hidrológico , Movimentos da Água , Abastecimento de Água/economia
13.
Nutrients ; 16(13)2024 Jun 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38999762

RESUMO

Despite a remarkable reduction in global poverty and famines, substantial childhood malnutrition continues to persist. In 2017, over 50 million and 150 million young children suffered from acute malnutrition (wasting) and chronic malnutrition (stunting), respectively. Yet, the measurable impact of determinants is obscure. We evaluate proposed socio-environmental related determinants of stunting and wasting across Kenya and Nigeria and quantify their effectiveness. We combine health and demographic data from Kenya and Nigeria Demographic Health Surveys (2003, 2008-2009, 2013, 2014) with spatially explicit precipitation, temperature, and vegetation data. Geospatial and disaggregated data help to understand better who is at risk and where to target mitigation efforts. We evaluate the responsiveness of malnutrition indicators using a four-level random intercept hierarchical generalized logit model. We find that spatial and hierarchical relationships explain 28% to 36% of malnutrition outcome variation. Temporal variation in precipitation, temperature, and vegetation corresponds with more than a 50% change in malnutrition rates. Wasting is most impacted by mother's education, family wealth, clinical delivery, and vaccinations. Stunting is most impacted by family wealth, mother's education, clinical delivery, vaccinations, and children asymptomatic of fever, cough, or diarrhea. Remotely monitored climatic variables are powerful determinants, however, their effects are inconsistent across different indicators and locations.


Assuntos
Transtornos da Nutrição Infantil , Transtornos do Crescimento , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Humanos , Pré-Escolar , Lactente , Transtornos do Crescimento/epidemiologia , Transtornos do Crescimento/etiologia , Transtornos da Nutrição Infantil/epidemiologia , Feminino , Quênia/epidemiologia , Nigéria/epidemiologia , Masculino , Fatores de Risco , Síndrome de Emaciação/epidemiologia , Análise Espacial , Determinantes Sociais da Saúde , Inquéritos Epidemiológicos
14.
PNAS Nexus ; 3(5): pgae172, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38745565

RESUMO

Hydrogen is gaining tremendous traction in China as the fuel of the future to support the country's carbon neutrality ambition. Despite that hydrogen as fuel largely hinges on the supply of platinum (Pt), the dynamic interlinkage between Pt supply challenges, hydrogen development pathways, and climate targets in China has yet to be deeply analyzed. Here, we adopt an integrated assessment model to address this important concern and corresponding strategies for China. The results indicate that the booming hydrogen development would drive China's cumulative demand for Pt metal to reach 4,200-5,000 tons. Much of this demand, met through a limited supply pattern, is vulnerable to price volatility and heightened geopolitical risks, which can be mitigated through circular economy strategies. Consequently, a coordinated approach to leverage both global sustainable Pt sourcing and a robust domestic Pt circular economy is imperative for ensuring cost-effective hydrogen production, aligned with a climate-safe future.

15.
Sci Bull (Beijing) ; 69(16): 2632-2646, 2024 Aug 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38879416

RESUMO

Given that it was a once-in-a-century emergency event, the confinement measures related to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused diverse disruptions and changes in life and work patterns. These changes significantly affected water consumption both during and after the pandemic, with direct and indirect consequences on biodiversity. However, there has been a lack of holistic evaluation of these responses. Here, we propose a novel framework to study the impacts of this unique global emergency event by embedding an environmentally extended supply-constrained global multi-regional input-output model (MRIO) into the drivers-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) framework. This framework allowed us to develop scenarios related to COVID-19 confinement measures to quantify country-sector-specific changes in freshwater consumption and the associated changes in biodiversity for the period of 2020-2025. The results suggest progressively diminishing impacts due to the implementation of COVID-19 vaccines and the socio-economic system's self-adjustment to the new normal. In 2020, the confinement measures were estimated to decrease global water consumption by about 5.7% on average across all scenarios when compared with the baseline level with no confinement measures. Further, such a decrease is estimated to lead to a reduction of around 5% in the related pressure on biodiversity. Given the interdependencies and interactions across global supply chains, even those countries and sectors that were not directly affected by the COVID-19 shocks experienced significant impacts: Our results indicate that the supply chain propagations contributed to 79% of the total estimated decrease in water consumption and 84% of the reduction in biodiversity loss on average. Our study demonstrates that the MRIO-enhanced DSPIR framework can help quantify resource pressures and the resultant environmental impacts across supply chains when facing a global emergency event. Further, we recommend the development of more locally based water conservation measures-to mitigate the effects of trade disruptions-and the explicit inclusion of water resources in post-pandemic recovery schemes. In addition, innovations that help conserve natural resources are essential for maintaining environmental gains in the post-pandemic world.


Assuntos
Biodiversidade , COVID-19 , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Humanos , Pandemias , Abastecimento de Água , SARS-CoV-2 , Água Doce
16.
Environ Int ; 171: 107681, 2023 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36516672

RESUMO

Toxic chemicals have severe impacts on ecosystem, climate change and human health, and the current toxic releases are inequitably distributed across regions. Investigating the toxic release embodied in final demand by states and income groups can reveal the responsibility transfer of different entities. In this paper, we extended the U.S. multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model with toxic chemical release data in 2017 to conduct the production- and consumption-based accounting of toxic release by each state, and the inter-regional transfer of embodied toxic release between states. In addition, this paper analyzed how the toxic releases and inter-state transfer of embodied toxic release have been driven by income groups across states. The results showed that the toxic release from production was highly concentrated on the central states and the Great Lakes Region, while the consumption-based accounting of toxic release was more equally distributed across regions in the US. The non-metallic and metallic products manufacturing sectors were the most important sectors for most states from both production and consumption-based perspectives and were also the most essential sectors for interregional flows of embodied toxic release from Great Lake Region to Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Our results also showed that the largest portion (41.88%) of embodied toxic releases were triggered by households' final demand, and that the consumption of the richest 35% of households contributed to more than 50% of the total toxic chemical releases triggered by total final demand of all households.


Assuntos
Comércio , Ecossistema , Humanos , Great Lakes Region , China , Dióxido de Carbono/análise
17.
PNAS Nexus ; 2(3): pgad057, 2023 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36970181

RESUMO

The rapid growth of China's demand for grains is expected to continue in the coming decades, largely as a result of the increasing feed demand to produce protein-rich food. This leads to a great concern on future supply potentials of Chinese agriculture under climate change and the extent of China's dependence on world food markets. While the existing literature in both agronomy and climate economics indicates a dominance of the adverse impacts of climate change on rice, wheat, and maize yields, there is a lack of study to assess changes in multi-cropping opportunities induced by climate change. Multi-cropping benefits crop production by harvesting more than once per year from a given plot. To address this important gap, we established a procedure within the agro-ecological zones (AEZ) modeling framework to assess future spatial shifts of multi-cropping conditions. The assessment was based on an ensemble of five general circulation models under four representative concentration pathway scenarios in the phase five of coupled model inter-comparison project and accounted for the water scarcity constraints. The results show significant northward extensions of single-, double-, and triple-cropping zones in the future which would provide good opportunities for crop-rotation-based adaptation. The increasing multi-cropping opportunities would be able to boost the annual grain production potential by an average scale of 89(±49) Mt at the current irrigation efficiency and 143(±46) Mt at the modernized irrigation efficiency with improvement between the baseline (1981-2010) and the mid-21st century (2041-2070).

18.
Commun Earth Environ ; 4(1): 334, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38665196

RESUMO

Global food security is increasingly threatened by climate change and regional human conflicts. Abnormal fluctuations in crop production in major exporting countries can cause volatility in food prices and household consumption in importing countries. Here we show that timely forecasting of crop harvest from satellite data over major exporting regions can trigger production response in the opposite hemisphere to offset the short-term fluctuations and stabilize global food supply. Satellite forecasting can reduce the fluctuation extents of country-level prices by 1.1 to 12.5 percentage points for anticipated wheat shortage or surplus in Russia and Ukraine, and even reverse the price shock in importing countries for anticipated soybean shortage in Brazil. Our research demonstrates that by leveraging the seasonal lags in crop calendars between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, operational crop monitoring from satellite data can provide a mechanism to improve global food security.

19.
PNAS Nexus ; 2(7): pgad209, 2023 Jul.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37469929

RESUMO

Understanding the impact of climate fiscal policies on vulnerable groups is a prerequisite for equitable climate mitigation. However, there has been a lack of attention to the impacts of such policies on the elderly, especially the low-income elderly, in existing climate policy literature. Here, we quantify and compare the distributional impacts of carbon pricing on different age-income groups in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Japan and then on different age groups in other 28 developed countries. We find that the elderly are more vulnerable to carbon pricing than younger groups in the same income group. In particular, the low-income elderly and elderly in less wealthy countries face greater challenges because carbon pricing lead to both higher rate of increase in living cost among low-income elderly and greater income inequality within the same age group. In addition, the low-income elderly would benefit less than the younger groups within the same income group in the commonly proposed carbon revenues recycling schemes. The high vulnerability of the low-income elderly to carbon pricing calls for targeted social protection along with climate mitigation polices toward an aging world.

20.
Nat Commun ; 14(1): 1246, 2023 Mar 04.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36870994

RESUMO

The adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) on a large scale is crucial for meeting the desired climate commitments, where affordability plays a vital role. However, the expected surge in prices of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese, four critical materials in EV batteries, could hinder EV uptake. To explore these impacts in the context of China, the world's largest EV market, we expand and enrich an integrated assessment model. We find that under a high material cost surge scenario, EVs would account for 35% (2030) and 51% (2060) of the total number of vehicles in China, significantly lower than 49% (2030) and 67% (2060) share in the base-line, leading to a 28% increase in cumulative carbon emissions (2020-2060) from road transportation. While material recycling and technical battery innovation are effective long-term countermeasures, securing the supply chains of critical materials through international cooperation is highly recommended, given geopolitical and environmental fragilities.

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