High proportion of post-migration HIV acquisition in migrant men who have sex with men receiving HIV care in the Paris region, and associations with social disadvantage and sexual behaviours: results of the ANRS-MIE GANYMEDE study, France, 2021 to 2022.

BackgroundSome migrant men who have sex with men (MSM) acquire HIV in France.AimsWe investigated, in migrant MSM receiving HIV care in France, the (i) rate of post-migration-HIV acquisition in France, (ii) delay between arrival and HIV acquisition and (iii) factors affecting HIV acquisition within 1 year after migration.MethodsThis cross-sectional study focused on ≥ 18-year-old MSM born outside France, receiving HIV care in the Paris region. Information on migration history, socioeconomic condition, sexual activity, and health was collected in May 2021-June 2022 through self-administered questionnaires and medical records. Post-migration-HIV-acquisition rate and delay between arrival in France and HIV acquisition were estimated from biographical data and CD4+ T-cell counts. Predictors of HIV acquisition within 1 year after migration were determined using logistic regression.ResultsOverall post-migration HIV-acquisition rate was 61.7% (715/1,159; 95%CI: 61.2-62.2), ranging from 40.5% (95%CI: 39.6-41.6) to 85.4% (95%CI: 83.9-86.0) in participants from Latin America and North Africa. Among post-migration-HIV acquisitions, those within 1 year after migration represented 13.1% overall (95%CI: 11.6-14.6), being highest in participants from sub-Saharan Africa (25%; 95%CI: 21.5-28.3). Participants ≥ 15-years old at migration, with post-migration-acquired HIV, had a 7.5-year median interval from arrival in France to HIV acquisition (interquartile range (IQR): 3.50-14.75). Older age at arrival, region of origin (sub-Saharan Africa and Asia), degree of social disadvantage and numbers of sexual partners were independently associated with acquiring HIV within 1 year in France.ConclusionOur findings may guide HIV prevention policies for most vulnerable migrants to Europe.

Acquisition du virus de l'immunodéficience humaine et parcours de vie d'hommes ayant des rapports sexuels avec d'autres hommes et ayant émigré en France : une enquête exploratoire.

INTRODUCTION: The ANRS 14058 Ganymede study aims to determine the proportion post-migration HIV-seroconversion in a sample of HIV-positive men having sex with men (MSM) born outside of France and receiving medical care in Paris region (Île-de-France). The study, based on a self-questionnaire, is also focused on the life course of these MSM before, during and after the migration process. PURPOSE OF RESEARCH: The paper refers to a qualitative exploratory study, taking place as a prerequisite for the Ganymede study, in order to refine its questionnaire. The purpose of these interviews was also to explore the migratory motivations and experiences, the sexual biography, and the health history, of a sample of seropositive MSM born outside of France, and to illustrate the diversity of this epidemiological category. RESULTS: Forteen respondents participated in the interview study. Nine of them have learned of their HIV-positive status after having emigrated to France. None of the respondents mentioned a major barrier to medical care access and HIV follow-up. The obstacles they reported were related to the coverage of medical expenses, due to their possible precarious legal and social situation. These men were exposed to the effects of power relations, leading to discrimination and violence, whose wider impacts on health were weakly evoked. CONCLUSIONS: Although the findings of the exploratory study are not to be generalized, they illustrate the health issues of the interviewees, and the wide diversity of their biographies and life courses, emphasizing the impact of gender and class power relations as a source of social and health inequalities, and precariousness. They invite therefore to describe this epidemiological category of "MSM born outside of France" in a more heterogeneous way.

Impact of test-and-treat and risk reduction strategies on HCV transmission among MSM living with HIV in France: a modelling approach.

OBJECTIVE: Since the early 2000s, there has been an epidemic of HCV occurring among men who have sex with men (MSM) living with HIV, mainly associated with high-risk sexual and drug-related behaviours. Early HCV diagnosis and treatment, and behavioural risk-reduction, may be effective to eliminate HCV among MSM living with HIV. DESIGN: We developed a deterministic dynamic compartmental model to simulate the impact of test-and-treat and risk-reduction strategies on HCV epidemic (particularly on incidence and prevalence) among MSM living with HIV in France. We accounted for HIV and HCV cascades of care, HCV natural history and heterogeneity in HCV risk behaviours. The model was calibrated to primary HCV incidence observed between 2014 and 2017 among MSM living with HIV in care (ANRS CO4-French hospital database on HIV (FHDH)). RESULTS: With current French practices (annual HCV screening and immediate treatment), total HCV incidence would fall by 70%, from 0.82/100 person-years in 2015 to 0.24/100 person-years in 2030. It would decrease to 0.19/100 person-years in 2030 with more frequent screening and to 0.19 (0.12)/100 person-years in 2030 with a 20% (50%) risk-reduction. When combining screening every 3 months with a 50% risk-reduction, HCV incidence would be 0.11/100 person-years in 2030, allowing to get close to the WHO target (90% reduction from 2015 to 2030). Similarly, HCV prevalence would decrease from 2.79% in 2015 to 0.48% in 2030 (vs 0.71% with current practices). CONCLUSION: Combining test-and-treat and risk-reduction strategies could have a marked impact on the HCV epidemic, paving the way to HCV elimination among MSM living with HIV.

HIV seroprevalence in five key populations in Europe: a systematic literature review, 2009 to 2019.

BackgroundIn Europe, HIV disproportionately affects men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), prisoners, sex workers, and transgender people. Epidemiological data are primarily available from national HIV case surveillance systems that rarely capture information on sex work, gender identity or imprisonment. Surveillance of HIV prevalence in key populations often occurs as independent studies with no established mechanism for collating such information at the European level.AimWe assessed HIV prevalence in MSM, PWID, prisoners, sex workers, and transgender people in the 30 European Union/European Economic Area countries and the United Kingdom.MethodsWe conducted a systematic literature review of peer-reviewed studies published during 2009-19, by searching PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library. Data are presented in forest plots by country, as simple prevalence or pooled across multiple studies.ResultsEighty-seven country- and population-specific studies were identified from 23 countries. The highest number of studies, and the largest variation in HIV prevalence, were identified for MSM, ranging from 2.4-29.0% (19 countries) and PWID, from 0.0-59.5% (13 countries). Prevalence ranged from 0.0-15.6% in prisoners (nine countries), 1.1-8.5% in sex workers (five countries) and was 10.9% in transgender people (one country). Individuals belonging to several key population groups had higher prevalence.ConclusionThis review demonstrates that HIV prevalence is highly diverse across population groups and countries. People belonging to multiple key population groups are particularly vulnerable; however, more studies are needed, particularly for sex workers, transgender people and people with multiple risks.

Human Immunodeficiency Virus Continuum of Care in 11 European Union Countries at the End of 2016 Overall and by Key Population: Have We Made Progress?

BACKGROUND: High uptake of antiretroviral treatment (ART) is essential to reduce human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission and related mortality; however, gaps in care exist. We aimed to construct the continuum of HIV care (CoC) in 2016 in 11 European Union (EU) countries, overall and by key population and sex. To estimate progress toward the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 target, we compared 2016 to 2013 estimates for the same countries, representing 73% of the population in the region. METHODS: A CoC with the following 4 stages was constructed: number of people living with HIV (PLHIV); proportion of PLHIV diagnosed; proportion of those diagnosed who ever initiated ART; and proportion of those ever treated who achieved viral suppression at their last visit. RESULTS: We estimated that 87% of PLHIV were diagnosed; 92% of those diagnosed had ever initiated ART; and 91% of those ever on ART, or 73% of all PLHIV, were virally suppressed. Corresponding figures for men having sex with men were: 86%, 93%, 93%, 74%; for people who inject drugs: 94%, 88%, 85%, 70%; and for heterosexuals: 86%, 92%, 91%, 72%. The proportion suppressed of all PLHIV ranged from 59% to 86% across countries. CONCLUSIONS: The EU is close to the 90-90-90 target and achieved the UNAIDS target of 73% of all PLHIV virally suppressed, significant progress since 2013 when 60% of all PLHIV were virally suppressed. Strengthening of testing programs and treatment support, along with prevention interventions, are needed to achieve HIV epidemic control.

HIV testing within general practices in Europe: a mixed-methods systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Late diagnosis of HIV infection remains a key challenge in Europe. It is acknowledged that general practitioners (GPs) may contribute greatly to early case finding, yet there is evidence that many diagnostic opportunities are being missed. To further promote HIV testing in primary care and to increase the utility of available research, the existing evidence has been synthesised in a systematic review adhering to the PRISMA guidelines. METHODS: The databases PubMed, Scopus and Embase were searched for the period 2006-2017. Two authors judged independently on the eligibility of studies. Through a mixed-methods systematic review of 29 studies, we provide a description of HIV testing in general practices in Europe, including barriers and facilitators. RESULTS: The findings of the study show that although various approaches to target patients are used by GPs, most tests are still carried out based on the patient's request. Several barriers obstruct HIV testing in general practice. Included are a lack of communication skills on sexual health, lack of knowledge about HIV testing recommendations and epidemic specificities, difficulties with using the complete list of clinical HIV indicator diseases and lack of experience in delivering and communicating test results. The findings also suggest that the provision of specific training, practical tools and promotion programmes has an impact on the testing performance of GPs. CONCLUSIONS: GPs could have an increased role in provider-initiated HIV-testing for early case finding. To achieve this objective, solutions to the reported barriers should be identified and testing criteria adapted to primary healthcare defined. Providing guidance and training to better identify priority groups for HIV testing, as well as information on the HIV epidemic's characteristics, will be fundamental to increasing awareness and testing by GPs.

The Human Immunodeficiency Virus Continuum of Care in European Union Countries in 2013: Data and Challenges.

BACKGROUND.: The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has set a "90-90-90" target to curb the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic by 2020, but methods used to assess whether countries have reached this target are not standardized, hindering comparisons. METHODS.: Through a collaboration formed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) with European HIV cohorts and surveillance agencies, we constructed a standardized, 4-stage continuum of HIV care for 11 European Union countries for 2013. Stages were defined as (1) number of people living with HIV in the country by end of 2013; (2) proportion of stage 1 ever diagnosed; (3) proportion of stage 2 that ever initiated ART; and (4) proportion of stage 3 who became virally suppressed (≤200 copies/mL). Case surveillance data were used primarily to derive stages 1 (using back-calculation models) and 2, and cohort data for stages 3 and 4. RESULTS.: In 2013, 674500 people in the 11 countries were estimated to be living with HIV, ranging from 5500 to 153400 in each country. Overall HIV prevalence was 0.22% (range, 0.09%-0.36%). Overall proportions of each previous stage were 84% diagnosed, 84% on ART, and 85% virally suppressed (60% of people living with HIV). Two countries achieved ≥90% for all stages, and more than half had reached ≥90% for at least 1 stage. CONCLUSIONS.: European Union countries are nearing the 90-90-90 target. Reducing the proportion undiagnosed remains the greatest barrier to achieving this target, suggesting that further efforts are needed to improve HIV testing rates. Standardizing methods to derive comparable continuums of care remains a challenge.

New indicators for delay in initiation of antiretroviral treatment: estimates for Cameroon.

OBJECTIVE: To propose two new indicators for monitoring access to antiretroviral treatment (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); (i) the time from HIV seroconversion to ART initiation, and (ii) the time from ART eligibility to initiation, referred to as delay in ART initiation. To estimate values of these indicators in Cameroon. METHODS: We used linear regression to model the natural decline in CD4+ T-lymphocyte (CD4+ cell) numbers in HIV-infected individuals over time. The model was fitted using data from a cohort of 351 people in Côte d'Ivoire. We used the model to estimate the time from seroconversion to ART initiation and the delay in ART initiation in a representative sample of 4154 HIV-infected people who started ART in Cameroon between 2007 and 2010. FINDINGS: In Cameroon, the median CD4+ cell counts at ART initiation increased from 140 cells/µl (interquartile range, IQR: 66 to 210) in 2007-2009 to 163 cells/µl (IQR: 73 to 260) in 2010. The estimated average time from seroconversion to ART initiation decreased from 10.4 years (95% confidence interval, CI: 10.3 to 10.5) to 9.8 years (95% CI: 9.6 to 10.0). Delay in ART initiation increased from 3.4 years (95% CI: 3.1 to 3.7) to 5.8 years (95% CI: 5.6 to 6.2). CONCLUSION: The estimated time to initiate ART and the delay in ART initiation indicate that progress in Cameroon is insufficient. These indicators should help monitor whether public health interventions to accelerate ART initiation are successful.

Sub-Saharan African migrants living with HIV acquired after migration, France, ANRS PARCOURS study, 2012 to 2013.

We estimated the proportion of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa who acquired human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) while living in France. Life-event and clinical information was collected in 2012 and 2013 from a random sample of HIV-infected outpatients born in sub-Saharan Africa and living in the Paris region. We assumed HIV infection in France if at least one of the following was fulfilled: (i) HIV diagnosis at least 11 years after arrival in France, (ii) at least one negative HIV test in France, (iii) sexual debut after arrival in France. Otherwise, time of HIV infection was based on statistical modelling of first CD4(+) T-cell count; infection in France was assumed if more than 50% (median scenario) or more than 95% (conservative scenario) of modelled infection times occurred after migration. We estimated that 49% of 898 HIV-infected adults born in sub-Saharan Africa (95% confidence interval (CI): 45-53) in the median and 35% (95% CI: 31-39) in the conservative scenario acquired HIV while living in France. This proportion was higher in men than women (44% (95% CI: 37-51) vs 30% (95% CI: 25-35); conservative scenario) and increased with length of stay in France. These high proportions highlight the need for improved HIV policies targeting migrants.

Heterosexual risk of HIV transmission per sexual act under combined antiretroviral therapy: systematic review and bayesian modeling.

BACKGROUND: Although essential for patient counseling and quality of life of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals, the risk of HIV transmission during 1 unprotected sex act with an HIV-infected person under combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) remains unknown. METHODS: We reviewed systematically the literature for studies on HIV transmission among heterosexual HIV-serodiscordant couples, where the infected partner was on cART, with regular virological monitoring, reporting on condom use and sexual activity. We used Bayesian statistics to combine data from selected studies, to investigate the per-act risk of HIV transmission through unprotected sex with an HIV-infected person on cART for >6 months. RESULTS: At most, 1 HIV transmission, over an estimated 113 480 sex acts, of which 17% were not condom protected, was reported within 1672 HIV-serodiscordant couples where the index partner had been treated for >6 months. Data were insufficient to determine whether the reported transmission occurred before or after 6 months of cART. We estimated the upper-bound per-act risk of HIV transmission at either 8.7 or 13:100 000, depending on whether the transmission occurred before or after 6 months of cART. These estimates applied whether or not index partners were virally suppressed. Estimating an upper-bound risk <1:100 000 would require observing no HIV transmission while collecting >12 times the available amount of data. CONCLUSIONS: Available data do not support zero risk of HIV transmission under cART. The per-act risk of HIV transmission through unprotected sex with HIV-infected individuals on cART in comprehensive care for >6 months (whether or not virally suppressed) is <13:100 000. Estimating a 10-fold lower upper-bound risk may be unfeasible due to high condom use among HIV-serodiscordant couples in most research studies.

[Overview of the HIV epidemics in France and worldwide ]. / Épidémiologie de l'infection par le VIH en France et dans le monde.

In 2012, an estimated 35.3 million people were living with HIV worldwide and new HIV infections (2.3 million) were down 20% compared to 2001. Over the past year, tremendous progress has been achieved in the fight against HIV, including expanded access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) and services to prevent mother-to-child transmission of HIV. However, progress is uneven. The regions most affected by HIV, Sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean, have seen a significant increase in ART coverage and drop in new HIV infections, while for other regions, such as the Middle East, North Africa, Eastern Europe and Central Asia, HIV trends have become worrisome. In many high-income countries, such as France, HIV epidemics are far from over, especially among men who have sex with men, where the HIV epidemic remains uncontrolled. Global, rapid scale-up of ART programs significantly decreased HIV/AIDS-related morbidity and mortality but has not been successful in preventing late HIV diagnosis. Reducing the time interval between HIV infection and diagnosis remains one of the biggest challenges that all HIV-affected countries have to face to further reduce HIV/AIDS-related mortality and control the HIV epidemic.

Factors associated with late antiretroviral therapy initiation in Cameroon: a representative multilevel analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Many people living with HIV/AIDS in resource-limited settings begin antiretroviral therapy (ART) at low CD4 counts. Here, we investigated the simultaneous effect of individual-, facility- and regional-level factors on late ART initiation. METHODS: We conducted a survey in a nationally representative sample of 55 HIV treatment facilities in Cameroon. Medical records of 4935 patients >15 years of age who initiated ART in the month of October during the period 2007-10 were reviewed to gather individual characteristics. Late ART initiation was defined as CD4 count ≤ 100 cells/mm(3). Facility- and regional-level characteristics were also collected. Two-level regression logistic models were used to identify factors associated with late ART initiation. RESULTS: Late ART initiation was associated with being a male younger than 45 years versus female younger than 45 years [adjusted OR (AOR) = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.3-1.7] and initiating ART in the period 2007-09 versus 2010 (AOR = 1.2, 95% CI: 1.0-1.4). Late initiation was more likely in central than in district hospitals (AOR = 1.3, 95% CI: 1.1-1.6) and in hospitals without a mother-to-child transmission programme (AOR = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.3-2.8). Living in a region with a higher comprehensive knowledge of HIV/AIDS was associated with not initiating ART late (AOR = 0.8, 95% CI: 0.6-1.0). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that risk factors associated with late ART initiation operate at multiple levels and that multilevel interventions are therefore necessary to promote earlier HIV testing and treatment.

HIV, transmitted drug resistance, and the paradox of preexposure prophylaxis.

The administration of antiretrovirals before HIV exposure to prevent infection (i.e., preexposure prophylaxis; PrEP) is under evaluation in clinical trials. Because PrEP is based on antiretrovirals, there is considerable concern that it could substantially increase transmitted resistance, particularly in resource-rich countries. Here we use a mathematical model to predict the effect of PrEP interventions on the HIV epidemic in the men-who-have-sex-with-men community in San Francisco. The model is calibrated using Monte Carlo filtering and analyzed by constructing nonlinear response hypersurfaces. We predict PrEP interventions could substantially reduce transmission but significantly increase the proportion of new infections caused by resistant strains. Two mechanisms can cause this increase. If risk compensation occurs, the proportion increases due to increasing transmission of resistant strains and decreasing transmission of wild-type strains. If risk behavior remains stable, the increase occurs because of reduced transmission of resistant strains coupled with an even greater reduction in transmission of wild-type strains. We define this as the paradox of PrEP (i.e., resistance appears to be increasing, but is actually decreasing). We determine this paradox is likely to occur if the efficacy of PrEP regimens against wild-type strains is greater than 30% and the relative efficacy against resistant strains is greater than 0.2 but less than the efficacy against wild-type. Our modeling shows, if risk behavior increases, that it is a valid concern that PrEP could significantly increase transmitted resistance. However, if risk behavior remains stable, we find the concern is unfounded and PrEP interventions are likely to decrease transmitted resistance.

[Antiretroviral drugs-based HIV prevention methods: what impact on the HIV epidemic?]. / Les moyens de prévention de l'infection à VIH à base d'antirétroviraux - Quel impact sur l'épidémie du VIH ?

Thirty years after the discovery of HIV, the epidemic continues to spread. Developing new HIV prevention methods to reduce the number of new HIV infections remains a priority. It has recently been shown that antiretroviral (ARV) drugs that have largely contributed to increase life expectancy of HIV-infected people may also have a direct impact on HIV transmission. Two new ART-based HIV prevention methods have proven effective in preventing HIV infection in controlled trials and observational studies: pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and treatment as prevention (TasP). PrEP consists of ARV drugs to be taken by HIV-negative individuals before potential HIV exposure to reduce the risk of HIV infection, while TasP consists of ARV drugs to be taken by individuals living with HIV to lower the risk of HIV transmission to others. Although these two new prevention tools have proven to be effective at the individual level, their population-level impact remains unclear. Herein in addition to reviewing current PrEP and TasP data, we discuss the potential impact of these two new prevention strategies on the HIV epidemic.

Impact of voluntary testing on infectious disease epidemiology: A game theoretic approach.

The World Health Organization recommends test-and-treat interventions to curb and even eliminate epidemics of HIV, viral hepatitis, and sexually transmitted infections (e.g., chlamydia, gonorrhea, syphilis and trichomoniasis). Epidemic models show these goals are achievable, provided the participation of individuals in test-and-treat interventions is sufficiently high. We combine epidemic models and game theoretic models to describe individual's decisions to get tested for infectious diseases within certain epidemiological contexts, and, implicitly, their voluntary participation to test-and-treat interventions. We develop three hybrid models, to discuss interventions against HIV, HCV, and sexually transmitted infections, and the potential behavioral response from the target population. Our findings are similar across diseases. Particularly, individuals use three distinct behavioral patterns relative to testing, based on their perceived costs for testing, besides the payoff for discovering their disease status. Firstly, if the cost of testing is too high, then individuals refrain from voluntary testing and get tested only if they are symptomatic. Secondly, if the cost is moderate, some individuals will test voluntarily, starting treatment if needed. Hence, the spread of the disease declines and the disease epidemiology is mitigated. Thirdly, the most beneficial testing behavior takes place as individuals perceive a per-test payoff that surpasses a certain threshold, every time they get tested. Consequently, individuals achieve high voluntary testing rates, which may result in the elimination of the epidemic, albeit on temporary basis. Trials and studies have attained different levels of participation and testing rates. To increase testing rates, they should provide each eligible individual with a payoff, above a given threshold, each time the individual tests voluntarily.

Psychosocial factors involved in the very infrequent use of HIV testing among French MSM: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Among men who have sex with men (MSM) in France, the average time between infection and testing is too long, leading to late diagnosis. A better understanding of very infrequent HIV testing (VIT; i.e. have not tested for at least 6 years) could help reach unknowingly long-infected MSM. Thus, we aim to identify psychosocial factors associated with VIT among MSM in France. METHODS: We conducted a multivariate regression on the data collected via a cross-sectional survey among 315 MSM. RESULTS: 11.1% (n = 35) had VIT. Being over 50, not knowing about the existence of HIV self-testing, having predominantly heterosexual friends, and the level of belief in the effectiveness of treatment as prevention were significantly associated with VIT. CONCLUSION: We call for the development, at the same time, of programs that operate at the individual, institutional and societal levels. In particular, we recommend diversifying the modes of promotion and access to prevention tools, especially for MSM over 50 years old or with little or no connection to the gay community.

Immune responses driven by protective human leukocyte antigen alleles from long-term nonprogressors are associated with low HIV reservoir in central memory CD4 T cells.

BACKGROUND: The stable immune control of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in long-term nonprogressors (LTNPs) with protective human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alleles raises the question of whether and how these alleles influence the immune distribution of the HIV reservoirs. METHODS: Cell-associated HIV-DNA levels were quantified in blood sorted resting CD4 T-cell subsets from 8 LTNPs with and 10 without HLA-B*27 or HLA-B*57 alleles (HLA-B27/B57). RESULTS: A remarkably lower infection level of central memory CD4 T cells (T(CM)) was an exclusive feature that distinguished the HLA-B27/B57 HIV reservoirs from the other ones. In LTNPs, T(CM) protection was correlated with preservation of T(CM) counts, which correlated positively with the magnitude of HIV Gag-specific CD8 T cells. In HLA-B27/B57 LTNPs, a lower activation level of their memory CD4 T cells was associated with lower amounts of cell HIV-DNA in each resting memory CD4 subset and were also associated with higher ratios of HIV Gag-specific CD8 T cells per infected resting CD4 T cell (effector/target [E/T]). As a result, HLA-B27/B57 E/T ratios were negatively correlated with the contribution of memory CD4 T-cell subsets to the total HIV reservoirs. CONCLUSIONS: The potent antiviral immunity governed by the protective HLA-B27/B57 alleles, by limiting T(CM) infection and pool exhaustion, are associated with a reduced T(CM) contribution to the HIV reservoir.

Projection of age of individuals living with HIV and time since ART initiation in 2030: estimates for France.

INTRODUCTION: Thanks to antiretroviral treatment (ART), people living with HIV (PLHIV) are living longer and ageing. However, ageing involves increased risks of co-morbidities, which also depend on when PLHIV individuals started ART. To tackle the HIV age-related upcoming challenges, knowledge of the current and future age structure of the HIV population is needed. Here, we forecast the demographic profile of the adult population living with diagnosed HIV (aPLdHIV) in France until 2030, accounting for the impact of the ART initiation period on mortality. METHODS: We used national data from the French Hospital Database on HIV (ANRS CO4-FHDH) and a sample of the National Health Data System to, first, characterize the aPLdHIV in 2018 and estimate their mortality rates according to age, sex and ART initiation period. Second, we used national HIV surveillance data to define three scenarios for the numbers of newly diagnosed HIV cases over 2019-2030: 30% decrease in HIV cases (S1), status quo situation (S2) and epidemic elimination (S3). We then combined these data using a matrix model, to project the age structure of aPLdHIV and time since ART initiation. RESULTS: In 2018, there was an estimated 161,125 aPLdHIV (33% women), of which 55% were aged 50 or older (50+), 22% aged 60+ and 8% aged 70+. In 2030, the aPLdHIV would grow to 195,246 for S1, 207,972 for S2 and 167,221 for S3. Whatever the scenario, in 2030, the estimated median time since ART initiation would increase and age distribution would shift towards older ages: with 65-72% aPLdHIV aged 50+, 42-48% 60+ and 17-19% 70+. This corresponds to ∼83,400 aPLdHIV (28% women) aged 60+, among which ∼69% started ART more than 20 years ago (i.e. before 2010) and ∼39% ≥30 years ago (i.e. before 2000), and to ∼33,100 aPLdHIV (27% women) aged 70+, among which ∼72% started ART ≥20 years ago and ∼43% ≥30 years ago. CONCLUSIONS: By 2030, in France, close to 20% of the aPLdHIV will be aged 70+, of which >40% would have started ART more than 30 years ago. These estimates are essential to adapt co-morbidities screening and anticipate resource provision in the aged care sector.

Cost-effectiveness of hepatitis C virus test-and-treat and risk reduction strategies among men who have sex with men living with HIV in France.

INTRODUCTION: Studies suggest that hepatitis C virus (HCV) micro-elimination is feasible among men who have sex with men (MSM) living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), through treatment-as-prevention and interventions aimed at reducing risk behaviours. However, their economic impact is poorly understood. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of HCV screening and risk reduction strategies in France. METHODS: A compartmental deterministic mathematical model was developed to describe HCV disease transmission and progression among MSM living with HIV in France. We evaluated different combinations of HCV screening frequency (every 12, 6 or 3 months) and risk reduction strategies (targeting only high-risk or all MSM) from 2021 onwards. The model simulated the number of HCV infections, life-expectancy (LYs), quality-adjusted life-expectancy (QALYs), lifetime costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over a lifetime horizon (leading to an end of the simulation in 2065). RESULTS: All strategies increased QALYs, compared with current practices, that is yearly HCV screening, with no risk reduction. A behavioural intervention resulting in a 20% risk reduction in the high-risk group, together with yearly screening, was the least expensive strategy, and, therefore, cost-saving compared to current practices. The ICER per QALY gained for the strategy combining risk reduction for the high-risk group with 6-month HCV screening, compared to risk reduction with yearly screening, was €61,389. It also prevented 398 new HCV infections between 2021 and 2065, with a cost per infection averted of €37,790. All other strategies were dominated (more expensive and less effective than some other available alternative) or not cost-effective (ICER per QALY gained > €100,000). CONCLUSIONS: In the French context, current HCV screening practices without risk reduction among MSM living with HIV cannot be justified on economic grounds. Risk reduction interventions targeted to high-risk individuals-alongside screening either once or twice a year-could be cost-effective depending on the policymaker's willingness-to-pay.