The Emergency Medicine Physician Workforce: Projections for 2030.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The goals of this study were to determine the current and projected supply in 2030 of contributors to emergency care, including emergency residency-trained and board-certified physicians, other physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants. In addition, this study was designed to determine the current and projected demand for residency-trained, board-certified emergency physicians. METHODS: To forecast future workforce supply and demand, sources of existing data were used, assumptions based on past and potential future trends were determined, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine how the final forecast would be subject to variance in the baseline inputs and assumptions. Methods included: (1) estimates of the baseline workforce supply of physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants; (2) estimates of future changes in the raw numbers of persons entering and leaving that workforce; (3) estimates of the productivity of the workforce; and (4) estimates of the demand for emergency care services. The methodology assumes supply equals demand in the base year and estimates the change between the base year and 2030; it then compares supply and demand in 2030 under different scenarios. RESULTS: The task force consensus was that the most likely future scenario is described by: 2% annual graduate medical education growth, 3% annual emergency physician attrition, 20% encounters seen by a nurse practitioner or physician assistant, and 11% increase in emergency department visits relative to 2018. This scenario would result in a surplus of 7,845 emergency physicians in 2030. CONCLUSION: The specialty of emergency medicine is facing the likely oversupply of emergency physicians in 2030. The factors leading to this include the increasing supply of and changing demand for emergency physicians. An organized, collective approach to a balanced workforce by the specialty of emergency medicine is imperative.

Blood pressure and in-hospital outcomes in patients presenting with ischaemic stroke.

AIMS: Post-stroke hypertension is associated with poor short-term outcome, although the results have been conflicting. Our objective was to evaluate the association of blood pressure (BP) and in-hospital outcomes in patients with acute ischaemic stroke. METHODS AND RESULTS: Patients in the Get With The Guidelines-Stroke registry with acute ischaemic stroke were included. Admission systolic and diastolic BP was used to compute mean arterial pressure (MAP) and pulse pressure (PP). The outcomes of interest were: in-hospital mortality, not discharged home, inability to ambulate independently at discharge and haemorrhagic complications due to thrombolytic therapy. A total of 309 611 patients with an ischaemic stroke were included. There was a J-shaped/U-shaped relationship between systolic BP and outcomes. Both lower and higher systolic BP values, compared with a central reference value, had higher risk of in-hospital death [e.g. adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) (OR[CI]) = 1.16[1.13-1.20] for 120 vs. 150 mmHg and 1.24[1.19-1.30] for 200 vs. 150 mmHg], not discharged home (OR[CI] = 1.11[1.09-1.13] for 120 vs. 150 mmHg and 1.15[1.12-1.18] for 200 vs. 150 mmHg), inability to ambulate independently at discharge (OR[CI] = 1.16[1.13-1.18] for 120 vs. 150 mmHg and 1.09[1.06-1.11] for 200 vs. 150 mmHg). However, risk of haemorrhagic complications of thrombolytic therapy was lower with lower systolic BP (OR[CI] = 0.89[0.83-0.97] for 120 vs. 150 mmHg), while higher with higher systolic BP (OR[CI] = 1.21[1.11-1.32] for 200 vs. 150 mmHg). The results were largely similar for admission diastolic BP, MAP, and PP. CONCLUSION: In patients hospitalized with ischaemic stroke, J-shaped, or U-shaped relationships were observed between BP variables and short-term outcomes. However, haemorrhagic complications with thrombolytic therapy were lower with lower BP.

Regional Systems of Care Demonstration Project: American Heart Association Mission: Lifeline STEMI Systems Accelerator.

BACKGROUND: Up to 50% of patients fail to meet ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) guideline goals recommending a first medical contact-to-device time of <90 minutes for patients directly presenting to percutaneous coronary intervention-capable hospitals and <120 minutes for transferred patients. We sought to increase the proportion of patients treated within guideline goals by organizing coordinated regional reperfusion plans. METHODS: We established leadership teams, coordinated protocols, and provided regular feedback for 484 hospitals and 1253 emergency medical services (EMS) agencies in 16 regions across the United States. RESULTS: Between July 2012 and December 2013, 23 809 patients presented with acute STEMI (direct to percutaneous coronary intervention hospital: 11 765 EMS transported and 6502 self-transported; 5542 transferred). EMS-transported patients differed from self-transported patients in symptom onset to first medical contact time (median, 47 versus 114 minutes), incidence of cardiac arrest (10% versus 3%), shock on admission (11% versus 3%), and in-hospital mortality (8% versus 3%; P<0.001 for all comparisons). There was a significant increase in the proportion of patients meeting guideline goals of first medical contact-to-device time, including those directly presenting via EMS (50% to 55%; P<0.001) and transferred patients (44%-48%; P=0.002). Despite regional variability, the greatest gains occurred among patients in the 5 most improved regions, increasing from 45% to 57% (direct EMS; P<0.001) and 38% to 50% (transfers; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This Mission: Lifeline STEMI Systems Accelerator demonstration project represents the largest national effort to organize regional STEMI care. By focusing on first medical contact-to-device time, coordinated treatment protocols, and regional data collection and reporting, we were able to increase significantly the proportion of patients treated within guideline goals.

Emergent Dialysis and its Impact on Quality of Life in Undocumented Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to define the ethnographic composition and assess the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of a large population of undocumented patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) seeking emergent dialysis in the emergency department (ED) of a large public hospital in the United States. DESIGN: All ESRD patients presenting to the hospital's main ED were identified during a 4-week consecutive enrollment period. Consenting patients completed two surveys-an ethnographic questionnaire and the validated kidney disease quality of life-36 (KDQOL-36) instrument. SETTING: The study was conducted at a large county hospital in Dallas, Texas. In 2013, the hospital recorded >50,000 ED visits and administered approximately 6,000 dialysis treatments to ED patients. PARTICIPANTS: 88 of 101 unfunded patients presenting to the ED during the study period consented to participate, resulting in an 87.1% response rate. 65 of these patients were undocumented immigrants. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Quantitative scores for the 5 subscales of the KDQOL-36 were calculated for the study population. RESULTS: Measures of physical and mental health in our study population were lower than those published for scheduled dialysis patients. 79.5% of our patients lost employment due to their dialysis requirements. At least 71.4% of the study patients were unaware that they required dialysis before immigrating to the United States. CONCLUSIONS: Quality of life scores were found to be low among our population of undocumented emergent dialysis patients. Our data also provide some evidence that availability of dialysis at no cost is not a primary driver of illegal immigration of ESRD patients to the United States.

Prior Antithrombotic Use Is Associated With Favorable Mortality and Functional Outcomes in Acute Ischemic Stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Antithrombotics are the mainstay of treatment in primary and secondary prevention of stroke, and their use before an acute event may be associated with better outcomes. METHODS: Using data from Get With The Guidelines-Stroke with over half a million acute ischemic strokes recorded between October 2011 and March 2014 (n=540 993) from 1661 hospitals across the United States, we examined the unadjusted and adjusted associations between previous antithrombotic use and clinical outcomes. RESULTS: There were 250 104 (46%) stroke patients not receiving any antithrombotic before stroke; of whom approximately one third had a documented previous vascular indication. After controlling for clinical and hospital factors, patients who were receiving antithrombotics before stroke had better outcomes than those who did not, regardless of whether a previous vascular indication was present or not: adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence intervals) were 0.82 (0.80-0.84) for in-hospital mortality, 1.18 (1.16-1.19) for home as the discharge destination, 1.15 (1.13-1.16) for independent ambulatory status at discharge, and 1.15 (1.12-1.17) for discharge modified Rankin Scale score of 0 or 1. CONCLUSIONS: Previous antithrombotic therapy was independently associated with improved clinical outcomes after acute ischemic stroke. Ensuring the use of antithrombotics in appropriate patient populations may be associated with benefits beyond stroke prevention.

Acute management of stroke patients taking non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants Addressing Real-world Anticoagulant Management Issues in Stroke (ARAMIS) Registry: Design and rationale.

BACKGROUND: Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban, and edoxaban) have been increasingly used as alternatives to warfarin for stroke prophylaxis in patients with atrial fibrillation. Yet there is substantial lack of information on how patients on NOACs are currently treated when they have an acute ischemic stroke and the best strategies for treating intracerebral hemorrhage for those on chronic anticoagulation with warfarin or a NOAC. These are critical unmet needs for real world clinical decision making in these emergent patients. METHODS: The ARAMIS Registry is a multicenter cohort study of acute stroke patients who were taking chronic anticoagulation therapy prior to admission and are admitted with either an acute ischemic stroke or intracerebral hemorrhage. Built upon the existing infrastructure of American Heart Association/American Stroke Association Get With the Guidelines Stroke, the ARAMIS Registry will enroll a total of approximately 10,000 patients (5000 with acute ischemic stroke who are taking a NOAC and 5000 with anticoagulation-related intracerebral hemorrhage who are on warfarin or a NOAC). The primary goals of the ARAMIS Registry are to provide a comprehensive picture of current treatment patterns and outcomes of acute ischemic stroke patients on NOACs, as well as anticoagulation-related intracerebral hemorrhage in patients on either warfarin or NOACs. Beyond characterizing the index hospitalization, up to 2500 patients (1250 ischemic stroke and 1250 intracerebral hemorrhage) who survive to discharge will be enrolled in an optional follow-up sub-study and interviewed at 3 and 6 months after discharge to assess longitudinal medication use, downstream care, functional status, and patient-reported outcomes. CONCLUSION: The ARAMIS Registry will document the current state of management of NOAC treated patients with acute ischemic stroke as well as contemporary care and outcome of anticoagulation-related intracerebral hemorrhage. These data will be used to better understand optimal strategies to care for these complex but increasingly common emergent real world clinical challenges.

Fellowships in international emergency medicine in the USA: a comparative survey of program directors' and fellows' perspectives on the curriculum.

OBJECTIVE: Experts have proposed core curriculum components for international emergency medicine (IEM) fellowships. This study examined perceptions of program directors (PDs) and fellows on whether IEM fellowships cover these components, whether their perspectives differ and the barriers preventing fellowships from covering them. METHODS: From 1 November 2011 to 30 November 2011, a survey was administered to PDs, current fellows and recent graduates of the 34 US IEM fellowships. Respondents quantified their fellowship experience in six proposed core curriculum areas: emergency medicine (EM) systems development, EM education, humanitarian assistance, public health, emergency medical services and disaster medicine. Analysis was performed regarding what per cent of programmes fulfil the six curriculum areas. A paired t test determined the difference between PDs' and fellows' responses. Agreement between PDs and fellows within the same programme was determined using a κ statistic. RESULTS: Only 1/18 (6%) (according to fellows) to 2/24 (8%) (according to PDs) of programmes expose fellows to all six components. PDs consistently reported higher exposure than fellows. The difference in mean score between PDs and fellows was statistically significant (p<0.05) in three of the 6 (50%) core curriculum elements: humanitarian aid, public health and disaster medicine. Per cent agreement between PDs and fellows within each programmes ranged from poor to fair. CONCLUSIONS: While IEM fellowships have varying structure, this study highlights the importance of further discussion between PDs and fellows regarding delineation and objectives of core curriculum components. Transparent curricula and open communication between PDs and fellows may reduce differences in reported experiences.

Factors associated with emergency physician income.

Objective: Income fairness is important, but there are limited data that describe income equity among emergency physicians. Understanding the magnitude of and factors associated with income differences may be helpful in eliminating disparities. This study analyzed the associations of demographic factors, training, practice setting, and board certification with emergency physician income. Methods: We distributed a survey to professional members of the American College of Emergency Physicians. The survey included questions on annual income, educational background, practice characteristics, gender, age, race, ethnicity, international medical graduate status, type of medical degree (MD vs DO), completion of a subspecialty fellowship, job characteristics, and board certification. Respondents also reported annual income. We used linear regression to determine the respondent characteristics associated with reported annual income. Results: From 45,961 members we received 3407 responses (7.4%); 2350 contained complete data for regression analysis. The mean reported annual income was $315,306 (95% confidence interval [CI], $310,649 to $319,964). The mean age of the respondents was 47.4 years, 37.4% were women, 3.2% were races underrepresented in medicine (Black, American Indian, or Alaskan Native), and 4.8% were Hispanic or Latino. On linear regression, female gender was associated with lower reported annual income; difference -$43,565, 95% CI, -$52,217 to -$34,913. Physician age, degree (MD vs DO), underrepresented racial minority status, and underrepresented ethnic minority status were not associated with annual income. Fellowship training was associated with lower income; Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) program difference -$30,048; 95% CI, -$48,183 to -$11,912, non-ACGME-program difference -$27,640, 95% CI, -$40,970 to -$14,257. Working at a for-profit institution was associated with higher income; difference $12,290, 95% CI, $3693 to $20,888. Board certification was associated with higher income; difference, $43,267, 95% CI, $30,767 to $55,767. Conclusions: This study identified income disparities associated with gender, practice setting, fellowship completion, and American Board of Emergency Medicine or American Osteopathic Board of Emergency Medicine certification.

World Health Assembly Resolution 60.22 and its importance as a health care policy tool for improving emergency care access and availability globally.

The recent adoption of World Health Assembly Resolution 60.22, titled "Health Systems: Emergency Care Systems," has established an important health care policy tool for improving emergency care access and availability globally. The resolution highlights the role that strengthened emergency care systems can play in reducing the increasing burden of disease from acute illness and injury in populations across the socioeconomic spectrum and calls on governments and the World Health Organization to take specific and concrete actions to make this happen. This resolution constitutes recognition by the World Health Assembly of the growing public health role of emergency care systems and is the highest level of international attention ever devoted to emergency care systems worldwide. Emergency care systems for secondary prevention of acute illnesses and injury remain inadequately developed in many low- and middle-income countries, despite evidence that basic strategies for improving emergency care systems can reduce preventable mortality and morbidity and can in many cases also be cost-effective. Emergency care providers and their professional organizations have used their comprehensive expertise to strengthen emergency care systems worldwide through the development of tools for emergency medicine education, systems assessment, quality improvement, and evidence-based clinical practice. World Health Assembly 60.22 represents a unique opportunity for emergency care providers and other advocates for improved emergency care to engage with national and local health care officials and policymakers, as well as with the World Health Organization, and leverage the expertise within the international emergency medicine community to make substantial improvements in emergency care delivery in places where it is most needed.

Army Urban Augmentation Medical Task Forces for COVID-19: Part 1-Development.

This article describes how the U.S. Army developed a new ad hoc medical formation, named Urban Augmentation Medical Task Force for the Department of Defense (DoD) in response to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 pandemic in the Continental United States during the spring of 2020. We review the role of the DoD support of the Federal Emergency Management Agency as a part of Defense Support of Civilian Authorities.

Army Urban Augmentation Medical Task Forces for COVID-19: Part 2-Initial Utilization.

This article describes the utilization of a new ad hoc medical formation, named Urban Augmentation Medical Task Force for the Department of Defense response to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic in the Continental United States during the spring of 2020. Military medical personnel from these units were used to staff a variety of different mission assignments. We review the benefits and limitation of this type of formation and recommend future force allocation models.

Timely Reperfusion in Stroke and Myocardial Infarction Is Not Correlated: An Opportunity for Better Coordination of Acute Care.

BACKGROUND: Timely reperfusion is critical in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The degree to which hospital performance is correlated on emergent STEMI and AIS care is unknown. Primary objective of this study was to determine whether there was a positive correlation between hospital performance on door-to-balloon (D2B) time for STEMI and door-to-needle (DTN) time for AIS, with and without controlling for patient and hospital differences. METHODS AND RESULTS: Prospective study of all hospitals in both Get With The Guidelines-Stroke and Get With The Guidelines-Coronary Artery Disease from 2006 to 2009 and treating ≥10 patients. We compared hospital-level DTN time and D2B time using Spearman rank correlation coefficients and hierarchical linear regression modeling. There were 43 hospitals with 1976 AIS and 59 823 STEMI patients. Hospitals' DTN times for AIS did not correlate with D2B times for STEMI (ρ=-0.09; P=0.55). There was no correlation between hospitals' proportion of eligible patients treated within target time windows for AIS and STEMI (median DTN time <60 minutes: 21% [interquartile range, 11-30]; median D2B time <90 minutes: 68% [interquartile range, 62-79]; ρ=-0.14; P=0.36). The lack of correlation between hospitals' DTN and D2B times persisted after risk adjustment. We also correlated hospitals' DTN time and D2B time data from 2013 to 2014 using Get With The Guidelines (DTN time) and Hospital Compare (D2B time). From 2013 to 2014, hospitals' DTN time performance in Get With The Guidelines was not correlated with D2B time performance in Hospital Compare (n=546 hospitals). CONCLUSIONS: We found no correlation between hospitals' observed or risk-adjusted DTN and D2B times. Opportunities exist to improve hospitals' performance of time-critical care processes for AIS and STEMI in a coordinated approach.

Use of Strategies to Improve Door-to-Needle Times With Tissue-Type Plasminogen Activator in Acute Ischemic Stroke in Clinical Practice: Findings from Target: Stroke.

BACKGROUND: The implementation of Target: Stroke Phase I, the first stage of the American Heart Association's national quality improvement initiative to accelerate door-to-needle (DTN) times, was associated with an average 15-minute reduction in DTN times. TARGET: Stroke phase II was launched in April 2014 with a goal of promoting further reduction in treatment times for tissue-type plasminogen activator (tPA) administration. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a second survey of Get With The Guidelines-Stroke hospitals regarding strategies used to reduce delays after Target: Stroke and quantify their association with DTN times. A total of 16 901 ischemic stroke patients were treated with intravenous tPA within 4.5 hours of symptom onset from 888 surveyed hospitals between June 2014 and April 2015. The patient-level median DTN time was 56 minutes (interquartile range, 42-75), with 59.3% of patients receiving intravenous tPA within 60 minutes and 30.4% within 45 minutes after hospital arrival. Most hospitals reported routinely using a majority of Target: Stroke key practice strategies, although direct transport of patients to computed tomographic/magenetic resonance imaging scanner, premix of tPA ahead of time, initiation of tPA in brain imaging suite, and prompt data feedback to emergency medical services providers were used less frequently. Overall, we identified 16 strategies associated with significant reductions in DTN times. Combined, a total of 20 minutes (95% confidence intervals 15-25 minutes) could be saved if all strategies were implemented. CONCLUSIONS: Get With The Guidelines-Stroke hospitals have initiated a majority of Target: Stroke-recommended strategies to reduce DTN times in acute ischemic stroke. Nevertheless, certain strategies were infrequently practiced and represent a potential immediate target for further improvements.

Organizational ethics.

Organizational ethics is a relatively recent concept in medical ethics that has many applications to emergency medicine. It encompasses the ethical values and practices of the organization. Emergency medicine organizations have particular challenges because of the need to integrate physician values and practices with those of the hospital and practice management entities. The three basic elements of an organizational ethics program are education, consultation, and policy development/review. To be successful, organizational ethics programs need to be interwoven into the comprehensive organizational plan, and a major focus of leaders in the day-to-day management of the emergency medicine organization.

Real world effectiveness of warfarin among ischemic stroke patients with atrial fibrillation: observational analysis from Patient-Centered Research into Outcomes Stroke Patients Prefer and Effectiveness Research (PROSPER) study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between warfarin treatment and longitudinal outcomes after ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation in community practice. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: Hospitals (n = 1487) participating in the Get With The Guidelines (GWTG)-Stroke program in the United States, from 2009 to 2011. PARTICIPANTS: 12,552 warfarin naive atrial fibrillation patients admitted to hospital for ischemic stroke and treated with warfarin compared with no oral anticoagulant at discharge, linked to Medicare claims for longitudinal outcomes. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and home time, a patient centered outcomes measure defined as the total number of days free from institutional care after discharge. A propensity score inverse probability weighting method was used to account for all differences in observed characteristics between treatment groups. RESULTS: Among 12,552 survivors of stroke, 11,039 (88%) were treated with warfarin at discharge. Warfarin treated patients were slightly younger and less likely to have a history of previous stroke or coronary artery disease but had similar severity of stroke as measured by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale. Relative to those not treated, patients treated with warfarin had more days at home (as opposed to institutional care) during the two years after discharge (adjusted home time difference 47.6 days, 99% confidence interval 26.9 to 68.2). Patients discharged on warfarin treatment also had a reduced risk of MACE (adjusted hazard ratio 0.87, 99% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.98), all cause mortality (0.72, 0.63 to 0.84), and recurrent ischemic stroke (0.63, 0.48 to 0.83). These differences were consistent among clinically relevant subgroups by age, sex, stroke severity, and history of previous coronary artery disease and stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Among ischemic stroke patients with atrial fibrillation, warfarin treatment was associated with improved long term clinical outcomes and more days at home. Clinical trial registration Clinical trials NCT02146274.

EMS Agenda for the Future: Where We Are Where We Want to Be.

During the past 30 years, emergency medical services (EMS) in the United States have experienced explosive growth. The American health care system is now transforming, providing an opportune time to examine what we have learned over the past three decades in order to create a vision for the future of EMS. Over the course of several months, a multidisciplinary steering committee collaborated with hundreds of EMS-interested individuals, organizations, and agencies to develop the "EMS Agenda for the Future." Fourteen EMS attributes were identified as requiring continued development in order to realize the vision established within the Agenda. They are Integration of Health Services, EMS Research, Legislation and Regulation, System Finance, Human Resources, Medical Direction, Education Systems, Public Education, Prevention, Public Access, Communication Systems, Clinical Care, Information Systems, and Evaluation. Discussion of these attributes provides important guidance for achieving a vision for the future of EMS that emphasizes its critical role in American health care. [Delbridge TR, Bailey B, Chew JL Jr, Conn AKT, Krakeel JJ, Manz D, Miller DR, O'Malley PJ, Ryan SD, Spaite DW, Stewart RD, Suter RE, Wilson EM: EMS agenda for the future: Where we are … where we want to be. Ann Emerg Med February 1998;31:251-263.].