A Bayesian neural network predicts the dissolution of compact planetary systems.

We introduce a Bayesian neural network model that can accurately predict not only if, but also when a compact planetary system with three or more planets will go unstable. Our model, trained directly from short N-body time series of raw orbital elements, is more than two orders of magnitude more accurate at predicting instability times than analytical estimators, while also reducing the bias of existing machine learning algorithms by nearly a factor of three. Despite being trained on compact resonant and near-resonant three-planet configurations, the model demonstrates robust generalization to both nonresonant and higher multiplicity configurations, in the latter case outperforming models fit to that specific set of integrations. The model computes instability estimates up to [Formula: see text] times faster than a numerical integrator, and unlike previous efforts provides confidence intervals on its predictions. Our inference model is publicly available in the SPOCK (https://github.com/dtamayo/spock) package, with training code open sourced (https://github.com/MilesCranmer/bnn_chaos_model).

Predicting the long-term stability of compact multiplanet systems.

We combine analytical understanding of resonant dynamics in two-planet systems with machine-learning techniques to train a model capable of robustly classifying stability in compact multiplanet systems over long timescales of [Formula: see text] orbits. Our Stability of Planetary Orbital Configurations Klassifier (SPOCK) predicts stability using physically motivated summary statistics measured in integrations of the first [Formula: see text] orbits, thus achieving speed-ups of up to [Formula: see text] over full simulations. This computationally opens up the stability-constrained characterization of multiplanet systems. Our model, trained on ∼100,000 three-planet systems sampled at discrete resonances, generalizes both to a sample spanning a continuous period-ratio range, as well as to a large five-planet sample with qualitatively different configurations to our training dataset. Our approach significantly outperforms previous methods based on systems' angular momentum deficit, chaos indicators, and parametrized fits to numerical integrations. We use SPOCK to constrain the free eccentricities between the inner and outer pairs of planets in the Kepler-431 system of three approximately Earth-sized planets to both be below 0.05. Our stability analysis provides significantly stronger eccentricity constraints than currently achievable through either radial velocity or transit-duration measurements for small planets and within a factor of a few of systems that exhibit transit-timing variations (TTVs). Given that current exoplanet-detection strategies now rarely allow for strong TTV constraints [S. Hadden, T. Barclay, M. J. Payne, M. J. Holman, Astrophys. J. 158, 146 (2019)], SPOCK enables a powerful complementary method for precisely characterizing compact multiplanet systems. We publicly release SPOCK for community use.

Sociodemographic, environmental and labor conditions related to the presence of conjunctivitis and skin irritation in a group of informal street vendors in downtown Medellin, 2015-2019.

INTRODUCTION: Occupational diseases are those that may have a causal relationship with occupational activity or environment. However, this definition does not specify how this disease would be identified and acknowledged for workers with subsistence jobs. OBJECTIVES: To determine sociodemographic, labor and environmental conditions that collaborate to explain the presence of eye and skin irritation among informal vendors in downtown Medellin. METHODS: Descriptive cross-sectional study with analytical intention, primary sources of information, and administration of assisted survey including self-reported eye and skin irritation in 686 workers. RESULTS: Predominantly male population with mean age of 50 (±11.8) years. A total of 23.5 % of workers had worked as vendors for their entire life; 37.5% had worked as vendors for 11 to 20 years as vendors; and 81.5%worked for more than 8 hours a day. According to 69.8% of the sample, poor air quality affected their work, and 80.0% believed that pollution was generated by vehicle fleet. The polluted areas generated unpleasant odors (50.2%) and air pollution (89.4%). The prevalence of eye and skin irritation was 65.4%. Not having working license and having fair, poor, or very poor job tenure significantly reduced the prevalence of eye and skin irritation. Conversely, exposure to polluted water, working in the professional for more than 30 years, male sex, and age older than 60 years were associated with increased prevalence of irritation. CONCLUSIONS: Eye and skin irritation was mainly explained by non-modifiable sociodemographic and labor conditions and by consumption of polluted water; however, implementing public health actions could reduce workers' socio-environmental and labor vulnerability.

TATOOINE'S FUTURE: THE ECCENTRIC RESPONSE OF KEPLER'S CIRCUMBINARY PLANETS TO COMMON-ENVELOPE EVOLUTION OF THEIR HOST STARS.

Inspired by the recent Kepler discoveries of circumbinary planets orbiting nine close binary stars, we explore the fate of the former as the latter evolve off the main sequence. We combine binary star evolution models with dynamical simulations to study the orbital evolution of these planets as their hosts undergo common-envelope (CE) stages, losing in the process a tremendous amount of mass on dynamical timescales. Five of the systems experience at least one Roche-lobe overflow and CE stage (Kepler-1647 experiences three), and the binary stars either shrink to very short orbits or coalesce; two systems trigger a double-degenerate supernova explosion. Kepler's circumbinary planets predominantly remain gravitationally bound at the end of the CE phase, migrate to larger orbits, and may gain significant eccentricity; their orbital expansion can be more than an order of magnitude and can occur over the course of a single planetary orbit. The orbits these planets can reach are qualitatively consistent with those of the currently known post-CE, eclipse-time variations circumbinary candidates. Our results also show that circumbinary planets can experience both modes of orbital expansion (adiabatic and nonadiabatic) if their host binaries undergo more than one CE stage; multiplanet circumbinary systems like Kepler-47 can experience both modes during the same CE stage. Additionally, unlike Mercury orbiting the Sun, a circumbinary planet with the same semimajor axis can survive the CE evolution of a close binary star with a total mass of 1 M ⊙.

Prevalencia y factores de riesgo de obesidad en adolescentes Policlínico René Vallejo Ortiz. Manzanillo. 2016-2017 / Prevalence and risk factors for obesity in adolescents René Vallejo Ortiz Polyclinic. Manzanillo. 2016-2017 / Prevalência e fatores de risco para obesidade em adolescentes René Vallejo Ortiz Polyclinic. Manzanillo. 2016-2017

RESUMEN La obesidad en adolescentes de Manzanillo constituye un problema de salud incipiente y complejo sin suficiente percepción del mismo. Con el objetivo de determinar los aspectos clínico - epidemiológicos asociados a la obesidad en los adolescentes del consultorio No. 602, del policlínico René Vallejo Ortiz, de Manzanillo, en el período comprendido desde enero de 2016 a enero de 2017, se realizó un estudio transversal o de prevalencia de adolescentes en edades comprendidas entre 11 a 19 años. El procesamiento y análisis de datos se realizó a partir de la información suministrada en la base de datos creada con el programa Microsoft Office Excel, lo cual se realizó mediante el estudio resumido de las frecuencias absolutas y relativas. En el análisis de asociación entre variables cualitativas se empleó la prueba no paramétrica de independencia Chi cuadrado de Pearson y la prueba de razón de posibilidades. Los factores de riesgos que condicionan la obesidad incluyen haber sido macrofeto durante el embarazo (OR = 5,95), antecedente de obesidad en la familia (OR = 3,66), y antecedente de trastornos lipídicos en los progenitores (OR = 2,83). Para resolver el problema de la obesidad en adolescentes se requiriere de nuevas estrategias destinadas al control de la enfermedad, el mejoramiento del estado de salud de esta población y el ascenso de los indicadores sanitarios del área en cuestión.

ABSTRACT Obesity in adolescents in Manzanillo constitutes an incipient and complex health problem without sufficient perception of it. With the aim of determining the clinical-epidemiological aspects associated with obesity in adolescents at clinic No. 602, at the René Vallejo Ortiz polyclinic in Manzanillo, in the period from January 2016 to January 2017, a cross-sectional study was conducted or prevalence of adolescents aged between 11 to 19 years. Data processing and analysis was carried out from the information provided in the database created with the Microsoft Office Excel program, which was carried out by means of the summary study of absolute and relative frequencies. In the analysis of association between qualitative variables, Pearson's non-parametric test of independence and the odds ratio test were used. The risk factors that condition obesity include having been a macro-fetus during pregnancy (OR = 5.95), a history of obesity in the family (OR = 3.66), and a history of lipid disorders in the parents (OR = 2, 83). In order to solve the problem of obesity in adolescents, new strategies are required to control the disease, improve the health status of this population and increase the health indicators of the area in question.

RESUMO A obesidade em adolescentes em Manzanillo constitui um problema de saúde incipiente e complexo sem uma percepção suficiente dele. Com o objetivo de determinar os aspectos clínico-epidemiológicos associados à obesidade em adolescentes da clínica nº 602, na policlínica René Vallejo Ortiz em Manzanillo, no período de janeiro de 2016 a janeiro de 2017, foi realizado um estudo transversal ou prevalência de adolescentes com idade entre 11 e 19 anos. O processamento e análise dos dados foram realizados a partir das informações fornecidas no banco de dados criado com o programa Microsoft Office Excel, realizado por meio do estudo sumário das frequências absolutas e relativas. Na análise da associação entre variáveis ​​qualitativas, foram utilizados o teste não paramétrico de independência e o odds ratio. Os fatores de risco que condicionam a obesidade incluem ter sido um macro-feto durante a gravidez (OR = 5,95), histórico de obesidade na família (OR = 3,66) e histórico de distúrbios lipídicos nos pais (OR = 2, 83) Para solucionar o problema da obesidade em adolescentes, novas estratégias são necessárias para controlar a doença, melhorar o estado de saúde dessa população e aumentar os indicadores de saúde da área em questão.