Understanding the sources of error in MBAR through asymptotic analysis.

Many sampling strategies commonly used in molecular dynamics, such as umbrella sampling and alchemical free energy methods, involve sampling from multiple states. The Multistate Bennett Acceptance Ratio (MBAR) formalism is a widely used way of recombining the resulting data. However, the error of the MBAR estimator is not well-understood: previous error analyses of MBAR assumed independent samples. In this work, we derive a central limit theorem for MBAR estimates in the presence of correlated data, further justifying the use of MBAR in practical applications. Moreover, our central limit theorem yields an estimate of the error that can be decomposed into contributions from the individual Markov chains used to sample the states. This gives additional insight into how sampling in each state affects the overall error. We demonstrate our error estimator on an umbrella sampling calculation of the free energy of isomerization of the alanine dipeptide and an alchemical calculation of the hydration free energy of methane. Our numerical results demonstrate that the time required for the Markov chain to decorrelate in individual states can contribute considerably to the total MBAR error, highlighting the importance of accurately addressing the effect of sample correlation.

Molecular dynamics simulations of nucleotide release from the circadian clock protein KaiC reveal atomic-resolution functional insights.

The cyanobacterial clock proteins KaiA, KaiB, and KaiC form a powerful system to study the biophysical basis of circadian rhythms, because an in vitro mixture of the three proteins is sufficient to generate a robust ∼24-h rhythm in the phosphorylation of KaiC. The nucleotide-bound states of KaiC critically affect both KaiB binding to the N-terminal domain (CI) and the phosphotransfer reactions that (de)phosphorylate the KaiC C-terminal domain (CII). However, the nucleotide exchange pathways associated with transitions among these states are poorly understood. In this study, we integrate recent advances in molecular dynamics methods to elucidate the structure and energetics of the pathway for Mg·ADP release from the CII domain. We find that nucleotide release is coupled to large-scale conformational changes in the KaiC hexamer. Solvating the nucleotide requires widening the subunit interface leading to the active site, which is linked to extension of the A-loop, a structure implicated in KaiA binding. These results provide a molecular hypothesis for how KaiA acts as a nucleotide exchange factor. In turn, structural parallels between the CI and CII domains suggest a mechanism for allosteric coupling between the domains. We relate our results to structures observed for other hexameric ATPases, which perform diverse functions.

Galerkin approximation of dynamical quantities using trajectory data.

Understanding chemical mechanisms requires estimating dynamical statistics such as expected hitting times, reaction rates, and committors. Here, we present a general framework for calculating these dynamical quantities by approximating boundary value problems using dynamical operators with a Galerkin expansion. A specific choice of basis set in the expansion corresponds to the estimation of dynamical quantities using a Markov state model. More generally, the boundary conditions impose restrictions on the choice of basis sets. We demonstrate how an alternative basis can be constructed using ideas from diffusion maps. In our numerical experiments, this basis gives results of comparable or better accuracy to Markov state models. Additionally, we show that delay embedding can reduce the information lost when projecting the system's dynamics for model construction; this improves estimates of dynamical statistics considerably over the standard practice of increasing the lag time.

Eigenvector method for umbrella sampling enables error analysis.

Umbrella sampling efficiently yields equilibrium averages that depend on exploring rare states of a model by biasing simulations to windows of coordinate values and then combining the resulting data with physical weighting. Here, we introduce a mathematical framework that casts the step of combining the data as an eigenproblem. The advantage to this approach is that it facilitates error analysis. We discuss how the error scales with the number of windows. Then, we derive a central limit theorem for averages that are obtained from umbrella sampling. The central limit theorem suggests an estimator of the error contributions from individual windows, and we develop a simple and computationally inexpensive procedure for implementing it. We demonstrate this estimator for simulations of the alanine dipeptide and show that it emphasizes low free energy pathways between stable states in comparison to existing approaches for assessing error contributions. Our work suggests the possibility of using the estimator and, more generally, the eigenvector method for umbrella sampling to guide adaptation of the simulation parameters to accelerate convergence.

Protein dynamics underlying allosteric regulation.

Allostery is the mechanism by which information and control are propagated in biomolecules. It regulates ligand binding, chemical reactions, and conformational changes. An increasing level of experimental resolution and control over allosteric mechanisms promises a deeper understanding of the molecular basis for life and powerful new therapeutics. In this review, we survey the literature for an up-to-date biological and theoretical understanding of protein allostery. By delineating five ways in which the energy landscape or the kinetics of a system may change to give rise to allostery, we aim to help the reader grasp its physical origins. To illustrate this framework, we examine three systems that display these forms of allostery: allosteric inhibitors of beta-lactamases, thermosensation of TRP channels, and the role of kinetic allostery in the function of kinases. Finally, we summarize the growing power of computational tools available to investigate the different forms of allostery presented in this review.

Conformational heterogeneity and probability distributions from single-particle cryo-electron microscopy.

Single-particle cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) is a technique that takes projection images of biomolecules frozen at cryogenic temperatures. A major advantage of this technique is its ability to image single biomolecules in heterogeneous conformations. While this poses a challenge for data analysis, recent algorithmic advances have enabled the recovery of heterogeneous conformations from the noisy imaging data. Here, we review methods for the reconstruction and heterogeneity analysis of cryo-EM images, ranging from linear-transformation-based methods to nonlinear deep generative models. We overview the dimensionality-reduction techniques used in heterogeneous 3D reconstruction methods and specify what information each method can infer from the data. Then, we review the methods that use cryo-EM images to estimate probability distributions over conformations in reduced subspaces or predefined by atomistic simulations. We conclude with the ongoing challenges for the cryo-EM community.

Ensemble Reweighting Using Cryo-EM Particle Images.

Cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) has recently become a leading method for obtaining high-resolution structures of biological macromolecules. However, cryo-EM is limited to biomolecular samples with low conformational heterogeneity, where most conformations can be well-sampled at various projection angles. While cryo-EM provides single-molecule data for heterogeneous molecules, most existing reconstruction tools cannot retrieve the ensemble distribution of possible molecular conformations from these data. To overcome these limitations, we build on a previous Bayesian approach and develop an ensemble refinement framework that estimates the ensemble density from a set of cryo-EM particle images by reweighting a prior conformational ensemble, e.g., from molecular dynamics simulations or structure prediction tools. Our work provides a general approach to recovering the equilibrium probability density of the biomolecule directly in conformational space from single-molecule data. To validate the framework, we study the extraction of state populations and free energies for a simple toy model and from synthetic cryo-EM particle images of a simulated protein that explores multiple folded and unfolded conformations.

Error Bounds for Dynamical Spectral Estimation.

Dynamical spectral estimation is a well-established numerical approach for estimating eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the Markov transition operator from trajectory data. Although the approach has been widely applied in biomolecular simulations, its error properties remain poorly understood. Here we analyze the error of a dynamical spectral estimation method called "the variational approach to conformational dynamics" (VAC). We bound the approximation error and estimation error for VAC estimates. Our analysis establishes VAC's convergence properties and suggests new strategies for tuning VAC to improve accuracy.

A Bayesian approach to extracting free-energy profiles from cryo-electron microscopy experiments.

Cryo-electron microscopy (cryo-EM) extracts single-particle density projections of individual biomolecules. Although cryo-EM is widely used for 3D reconstruction, due to its single-particle nature it has the potential to provide information about a biomolecule's conformational variability and underlying free-energy landscape. However, treating cryo-EM as a single-molecule technique is challenging because of the low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) in individual particles. In this work, we propose the cryo-BIFE method (cryo-EM Bayesian Inference of Free-Energy profiles), which uses a path collective variable to extract free-energy profiles and their uncertainties from cryo-EM images. We test the framework on several synthetic systems where the imaging parameters and conditions were controlled. We found that for realistic cryo-EM environments and relevant biomolecular systems, it is possible to recover the underlying free energy, with the pose accuracy and SNR as crucial determinants. We then use the method to study the conformational transitions of a calcium-activated channel with real cryo-EM particles. Interestingly, we recover not only the most probable conformation (used to generate a high-resolution reconstruction of the calcium-bound state) but also a metastable state that corresponds to the calcium-unbound conformation. As expected for turnover transitions within the same sample, the activation barriers are on the order of [Formula: see text]. We expect our tool for extracting free-energy profiles from cryo-EM images to enable more complete characterization of the thermodynamic ensemble of biomolecules.

A community-powered search of machine learning strategy space to find NMR property prediction models.

The rise of machine learning (ML) has created an explosion in the potential strategies for using data to make scientific predictions. For physical scientists wishing to apply ML strategies to a particular domain, it can be difficult to assess in advance what strategy to adopt within a vast space of possibilities. Here we outline the results of an online community-powered effort to swarm search the space of ML strategies and develop algorithms for predicting atomic-pairwise nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) properties in molecules. Using an open-source dataset, we worked with Kaggle to design and host a 3-month competition which received 47,800 ML model predictions from 2,700 teams in 84 countries. Within 3 weeks, the Kaggle community produced models with comparable accuracy to our best previously published 'in-house' efforts. A meta-ensemble model constructed as a linear combination of the top predictions has a prediction accuracy which exceeds that of any individual model, 7-19x better than our previous state-of-the-art. The results highlight the potential of transformer architectures for predicting quantum mechanical (QM) molecular properties.

Stratification as a general variance reduction method for Markov chain Monte Carlo.

The Eigenvector Method for Umbrella Sampling (EMUS) [46] belongs to a popular class of methods in statistical mechanics which adapt the principle of stratified survey sampling to the computation of free energies. We develop a detailed theoretical analysis of EMUS. Based on this analysis, we show that EMUS is an efficient general method for computing averages over arbitrary target distributions. In particular, we show that EMUS can be dramatically more efficient than direct MCMC when the target distribution is multimodal or when the goal is to compute tail probabilities. To illustrate these theoretical results, we present a tutorial application of the method to a problem from Bayesian statistics.

Insulin Dissociates by Diverse Mechanisms of Coupled Unfolding and Unbinding.

The protein hormone insulin exists in various oligomeric forms, and a key step in binding its cellular receptor is dissociation of the dimer. This dissociation process and its corresponding association process have come to serve as paradigms of coupled (un)folding and (un)binding more generally. Despite its fundamental and practical importance, the mechanism of insulin dimer dissociation remains poorly understood. Here, we use molecular dynamics simulations, leveraging recent developments in umbrella sampling, to characterize the energetic and structural features of dissociation in unprecedented detail. We find that the dissociation is inherently multipathway with limiting behaviors corresponding to conformational selection and induced fit, the two prototypical mechanisms of coupled folding and binding. Along one limiting path, the dissociation leads to detachment of the C-terminal segment of the insulin B chain from the protein core, a feature believed to be essential for receptor binding. We simulate IR spectroscopy experiments to aid in interpreting current experiments and identify sites where isotopic labeling can be most effective for distinguishing the contributions of the limiting mechanisms.