Pervasive chromosomal instability and karyotype order in tumour evolution.

Chromosomal instability in cancer consists of dynamic changes to the number and structure of chromosomes1,2. The resulting diversity in somatic copy number alterations (SCNAs) may provide the variation necessary for tumour evolution1,3,4. Here we use multi-sample phasing and SCNA analysis of 1,421 samples from 394 tumours across 22 tumour types to show that continuous chromosomal instability results in pervasive SCNA heterogeneity. Parallel evolutionary events, which cause disruption in the same genes (such as BCL9, MCL1, ARNT (also known as HIF1B), TERT and MYC) within separate subclones, were present in 37% of tumours. Most recurrent losses probably occurred before whole-genome doubling, that was found as a clonal event in 49% of tumours. However, loss of heterozygosity at the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) locus and loss of chromosome 8p to a single haploid copy recurred at substantial subclonal frequencies, even in tumours with whole-genome doubling, indicating ongoing karyotype remodelling. Focal amplifications that affected chromosomes 1q21 (which encompasses BCL9, MCL1 and ARNT), 5p15.33 (TERT), 11q13.3 (CCND1), 19q12 (CCNE1) and 8q24.1 (MYC) were frequently subclonal yet appeared to be clonal within single samples. Analysis of an independent series of 1,024 metastatic samples revealed that 13 focal SCNAs were enriched in metastatic samples, including gains in chromosome 8q24.1 (encompassing MYC) in clear cell renal cell carcinoma and chromosome 11q13.3 (encompassing CCND1) in HER2+ breast cancer. Chromosomal instability may enable the continuous selection of SCNAs, which are established as ordered events that often occur in parallel, throughout tumour evolution.

A sensitive and affordable multiplex RT-qPCR assay for SARS-CoV-2 detection.

With the ongoing COVID-19 (Coronavirus Disease 2019) pandemic, caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2), there is a need for sensitive, specific, and affordable diagnostic tests to identify infected individuals, not all of whom are symptomatic. The most sensitive test involves the detection of viral RNA using RT-qPCR (quantitative reverse transcription PCR), with many commercial kits now available for this purpose. However, these are expensive, and supply of such kits in sufficient numbers cannot always be guaranteed. We therefore developed a multiplex assay using well-established SARS-CoV-2 targets alongside a human cellular control (RPP30) and a viral spike-in control (Phocine Herpes Virus 1 [PhHV-1]), which monitor sample quality and nucleic acid extraction efficiency, respectively. Here, we establish that this test performs as well as widely used commercial assays, but at substantially reduced cost. Furthermore, we demonstrate >1,000-fold variability in material routinely collected by combined nose and throat swabbing and establish a statistically significant correlation between the detected level of human and SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acids. The inclusion of the human control probe in our assay therefore provides a quantitative measure of sample quality that could help reduce false-negative rates. We demonstrate the feasibility of establishing a robust RT-qPCR assay at approximately 10% of the cost of equivalent commercial assays, which could benefit low-resource environments and make high-volume testing affordable.

Genomic Evolution and Transcriptional Changes in the Evolution of Prostate Cancer into Neuroendocrine and Ductal Carcinoma Types.

Prostate cancer is typically of acinar adenocarcinoma type but can occasionally present as neuroendocrine and/or ductal type carcinoma. These are associated with clinically aggressive disease, and the former often arises on a background of androgen deprivation therapy, although it can also arise de novo. Two prostate cancer cases were sequenced by exome capture from archival tissue. Case 1 was de novo small cell neuroendocrine carcinoma and ductal adenocarcinoma with three longitudinal samples over 5 years. Case 2 was a single time point after the development of treatment-related neuroendocrine prostate carcinoma. Case 1 showed whole genome doubling in all samples and focal amplification of AR in all samples except the first time point. Phylogenetic analysis revealed a common ancestry for ductal and small cell carcinoma. Case 2 showed 13q loss (involving RB1) in both adenocarcinoma and small cell carcinoma regions, and 3p gain, 4p loss, and 17p loss (involving TP53) in the latter. By using highly curated samples, we demonstrate for the first time that small-cell neuroendocrine and ductal prostatic carcinoma can have a common ancestry. We highlight whole genome doubling in a patient with prostate cancer relapse, reinforcing its poor prognostic nature.

Phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) of colorectal cancer risk SNP effects on health outcomes in UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: Associations between colorectal cancer (CRC) and other health outcomes have been reported, but these may be subject to biases, or due to limitations of observational studies. METHODS: We set out to determine whether genetic predisposition to CRC is also associated with the risk of other phenotypes. Under the phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) and tree-structured phenotypic model (TreeWAS), we studied 334,385 unrelated White British individuals (excluding CRC patients) from the UK Biobank cohort. We generated a polygenic risk score (PRS) from CRC genome-wide association studies as a measure of CRC risk. We performed sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of the results and searched the Danish Disease Trajectory Browser (DTB) to replicate the observed associations. RESULTS: Eight PheWAS phenotypes and 21 TreeWAS nodes were associated with CRC genetic predisposition by PheWAS and TreeWAS, respectively. The PheWAS detected associations were from neoplasms and digestive system disease group (e.g. benign neoplasm of colon, anal and rectal polyp and diverticular disease). The results from the TreeWAS corroborated the results from the PheWAS. These results were replicated in the observational data within the DTB. CONCLUSIONS: We show that benign colorectal neoplasms share genetic aetiology with CRC using PheWAS and TreeWAS methods. Additionally, CRC genetic predisposition is associated with diverticular disease.

Genetically predicted physical activity levels are associated with lower colorectal cancer risk: a Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: We conducted a Mendelian randomisation (MR) study to investigate whether physical activity (PA) causes a reduction of colorectal cancer risk and to understand the contributions of effects mediated through changes in body fat. METHODS: Common genetic variants associated with self-reported moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA), acceleration vector magnitude PA (AMPA) and sedentary time were used as instrumental variables. To control for confounding effects of obesity, we included instrumental variables for body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage, waist circumference and arm, trunk and leg fat ratios. We analysed the effect of these instrumental variables in a colorectal cancer genome-wide association study comprising 31,197 cases and 61,770 controls of European ancestry by applying two-sample and multivariable MR study designs. RESULTS: We found decreased colorectal cancer risk for genetically represented measures of MVPA and AMPA that were additional to effects mediated through genetic measures of obesity. Odds ratio and 95% confidence interval (CI) per standard deviation increase in MVPA and AMPA was 0.56 (0.31, 1.01) and 0.60 (0.41, 0.88), respectively. No association has been found between sedentary time and colorectal cancer risk. The proportion of effect mediated through BMI was 2% (95% CI: 0, 14) and 32% (95% CI: 12, 46) for MVPA and AMPA, respectively. CONCLUSION: These findings provide strong evidence to reinforce public health measures on preventing colorectal cancer that promote PA at a population level regardless of body fatness.

Prediction of colorectal cancer risk based on profiling with common genetic variants.

Increasing numbers of common genetic variants associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) have been identified. Our study aimed to determine whether risk prediction based on common genetic variants might enable stratification for CRC risk. Meta-analysis of 11 genome-wide association studies comprising 16 871 cases and 26 328 controls was performed to capture CRC susceptibility variants. Genetic prediction models with several candidate polygenic risk scores (PRSs) were generated from Scottish CRC case-control studies (6478 cases and 11 043 controls) and the score with the best performance was then tested in UK Biobank (UKBB) (4800 cases and 20 287 controls). A weighted PRS of 116 CRC single nucleotide polymorphisms (wPRS116 ) was found with the best predictive performance, reporting a c-statistics of 0.60 and an odds ratio (OR) of 1.46 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.41-1.50, per SD increase) in Scottish data set. The predictive performance of this wPRS116 was consistently validated in UKBB data set with c-statistics of 0.61 and an OR of 1.49 (95% CI = 1.44-1.54, per SD increase). Modeling the levels of PRS with age and sex in the general UK population shows that employing genetic risk profiling can achieve a moderate degree of risk discrimination that could be helpful to identify a subpopulation with higher CRC risk due to genetic susceptibility.

Evolutionary history of human colitis-associated colorectal cancer.

OBJECTIVE: IBD confers an increased lifetime risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC), and colitis-associated CRC (CA-CRC) is molecularly distinct from sporadic CRC (S-CRC). Here we have dissected the evolutionary history of CA-CRC using multiregion sequencing. DESIGN: Exome sequencing was performed on fresh-frozen multiple regions of carcinoma, adjacent non-cancerous mucosa and blood from 12 patients with CA-CRC (n=55 exomes), and key variants were validated with orthogonal methods. Genome-wide copy number profiling was performed using single nucleotide polymorphism arrays and low-pass whole genome sequencing on archival non-dysplastic mucosa (n=9), low-grade dysplasia (LGD; n=30), high-grade dysplasia (HGD; n=13), mixed LGD/HGD (n=7) and CA-CRC (n=19). Phylogenetic trees were reconstructed, and evolutionary analysis used to reveal the temporal sequence of events leading to CA-CRC. RESULTS: 10/12 tumours were microsatellite stable with a median mutation burden of 3.0 single nucleotide alterations (SNA) per Mb, ~20% higher than S-CRC (2.5 SNAs/Mb), and consistent with elevated ageing-associated mutational processes. Non-dysplastic mucosa had considerable mutation burden (median 47 SNAs), including mutations shared with the neighbouring CA-CRC, indicating a precancer mutational field. CA-CRCs were often near triploid (40%) or near tetraploid (20%) and phylogenetic analysis revealed that copy number alterations (CNAs) began to accrue in non-dysplastic bowel, but the LGD/HGD transition often involved a punctuated 'catastrophic' CNA increase. CONCLUSIONS: Evolutionary genomic analysis revealed precancer clones bearing extensive SNAs and CNAs, with progression to cancer involving a dramatic accrual of CNAs at HGD. Detection of the cancerised field is an encouraging prospect for surveillance, but punctuated evolution may limit the window for early detection.

Haem oxygenase is synthetically lethal with the tumour suppressor fumarate hydratase.

Fumarate hydratase (FH) is an enzyme of the tricarboxylic acid cycle (TCA cycle) that catalyses the hydration of fumarate into malate. Germline mutations of FH are responsible for hereditary leiomyomatosis and renal-cell cancer (HLRCC). It has previously been demonstrated that the absence of FH leads to the accumulation of fumarate, which activates hypoxia-inducible factors (HIFs) at normal oxygen tensions. However, so far no mechanism that explains the ability of cells to survive without a functional TCA cycle has been provided. Here we use newly characterized genetically modified kidney mouse cells in which Fh1 has been deleted, and apply a newly developed computer model of the metabolism of these cells to predict and experimentally validate a linear metabolic pathway beginning with glutamine uptake and ending with bilirubin excretion from Fh1-deficient cells. This pathway, which involves the biosynthesis and degradation of haem, enables Fh1-deficient cells to use the accumulated TCA cycle metabolites and permits partial mitochondrial NADH production. We predicted and confirmed that targeting this pathway would render Fh1-deficient cells non-viable, while sparing wild-type Fh1-containing cells. This work goes beyond identifying a metabolic pathway that is induced in Fh1-deficient cells to demonstrate that inhibition of haem oxygenation is synthetically lethal when combined with Fh1 deficiency, providing a new potential target for treating HLRCC patients.

Loss of expression and promoter methylation of SLIT2 are associated with sessile serrated adenoma formation.

Serrated adenomas form a distinct subtype of colorectal pre-malignant lesions that may progress to malignancy along a different molecular pathway than the conventional adenoma-carcinoma pathway. Previous studies have hypothesised that BRAF mutation and promoter hypermethylation plays a role, but the evidence for this is not robust. We aimed to carry out a whole-genome loss of heterozygosity analysis, followed by targeted promoter methylation and expression analysis to identify potential pathways in serrated adenomas. An initial panel of 9 sessile serrated adenomas (SSA) and one TSA were analysed using Illumina Goldengate HumanLinkage panel arrays to ascertain regions of loss of heterozygosity. This was verified via molecular inversion probe analysis and microsatellite analysis of a further 32 samples. Methylation analysis of genes of interest was carried out using methylation specific PCR (verified by pyrosequencing) and immunohistochemistry used to correlate loss of expression of genes of interest. All experiments used adenoma samples and normal tissue samples as control. SSA samples were found on whole-genome analysis to have consistent loss of heterozygosity at 4p15.1-4p15.31, which was not found in the sole TSA, adenomas, or normal tissues. Genes of interest in this region were PDCH7 and SLIT2, and combined MSP/IHC analysis of these genes revealed significant loss of SLIT2 expression associated with promoter methylation of SLIT2. Loss of expression of SLIT2 by promoter hypermethylation and loss of heterozygosity events is significantly associated with serrated adenoma development, and SLIT2 may represent a epimutated tumour suppressor gene according to the Knudson "two hit" hypothesis.

DNA polymerase ε and δ exonuclease domain mutations in endometrial cancer.

Accurate duplication of DNA prior to cell division is essential to suppress mutagenesis and tumour development. The high fidelity of eukaryotic DNA replication is due to a combination of accurate incorporation of nucleotides into the nascent DNA strand by DNA polymerases, the recognition and removal of mispaired nucleotides (proofreading) by the exonuclease activity of DNA polymerases δ and ε, and post-replication surveillance and repair of newly synthesized DNA by the mismatch repair (MMR) apparatus. While the contribution of defective MMR to neoplasia is well recognized, evidence that faulty DNA polymerase activity is important in cancer development has been limited. We have recently shown that germline POLE and POLD1 exonuclease domain mutations (EDMs) predispose to colorectal cancer (CRC) and, in the latter case, to endometrial cancer (EC). Somatic POLE mutations also occur in 5-10% of sporadic CRCs and underlie a hypermutator, microsatellite-stable molecular phenotype. We hypothesized that sporadic ECs might also acquire somatic POLE and/or POLD1 mutations. Here, we have found that missense POLE EDMs with good evidence of pathogenic effects are present in 7% of a set of 173 endometrial cancers, although POLD1 EDMs are uncommon. The POLE mutations localized to highly conserved residues and were strongly predicted to affect proofreading. Consistent with this, POLE-mutant tumours were hypermutated, with a high frequency of base substitutions, and an especially large relative excess of G:C>T:A transversions. All POLE EDM tumours were microsatellite stable, suggesting that defects in either DNA proofreading or MMR provide alternative mechanisms to achieve genomic instability and tumourigenesis.

Targeted inactivation of fh1 causes proliferative renal cyst development and activation of the hypoxia pathway.

Germline mutations in the fumarate hydratase (FH) tumor suppressor gene predispose to leiomyomatosis, renal cysts, and renal cell cancer (HLRCC). HLRCC tumors overexpress HIF1alpha and hypoxia pathway genes. We conditionally inactivated mouse Fh1 in the kidney. Fh1 mutants developed multiple clonal renal cysts that overexpressed Hif1alpha and Hif2alpha. Hif targets, such as Glut1 and Vegf, were upregulated. We found that Fh1-deficient murine embryonic stem cells and renal carcinomas from HLRCC showed similar overexpression of HIF and hypoxia pathway components to the mouse cysts. Our data have shown in vivo that pseudohypoxic drive, resulting from HIF1alpha (and HIF2alpha) overexpression, is a direct consequence of Fh1 inactivation. Our mouse may be useful for testing therapeutic interventions that target angiogenesis and HIF-prolyl hydroxylation.

Mutations in Exon 1 highlight the role of MED12 in uterine leiomyomas.

Mediator regulates transcription by connecting gene-specific transcription factors to the RNA polymerase II initiation complex. We recently discovered by exome sequencing that specific exon 2 mutations in mediator complex subunit 12 (MED12) are extremely common in uterine leiomyomas. Subsequent screening studies have focused on this mutational hot spot, and mutations have been detected in uterine leiomyosarcomas, extrauterine leiomyomas and leiomyosarcomas, endometrial polyps, and colorectal cancers. All mutations have been missense changes or in-frame insertions/deletions. Here, we have analyzed 611 samples representing all above-mentioned tumor types for possible exon 1 mutations. Five mutations were observed, all of which were in-frame insertion/deletions in uterine leiomyomas. Transcriptome-wide expression data revealed that MED12 exon 1 and exon 2 mutations lead to the same unique global gene expression pattern with RAD51B being the most upregulated gene. Immunoprecipitation and kinase activity assays showed that both exon 1 and exon 2 mutations disrupt the interaction between MED12 and Cyclin C and CDK8/19 and abolish the mediator-associated CDK kinase activity. These results further emphasize the role of MED12 in uterine leiomyomas, show that exon 1 and exon 2 exert their tumorigenic effect in similar manner, and stress that exon 1 should be included in subsequent MED12 screenings.

Refinement of the associations between risk of colorectal cancer and polymorphisms on chromosomes 1q41 and 12q13.13.

In genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of colorectal cancer, we have identified two genomic regions in which pairs of tagging-single nucleotide polymorphisms (tagSNPs) are associated with disease; these comprise chromosomes 1q41 (rs6691170, rs6687758) and 12q13.13 (rs7163702, rs11169552). We investigated these regions further, aiming to determine whether they contain more than one independent association signal and/or to identify the SNPs most strongly associated with disease. Genotyping of additional sample sets at the original tagSNPs showed that, for both regions, the two tagSNPs were unlikely to identify a single haplotype on which the functional variation lay. Conversely, one of the pair of SNPs did not fully capture the association signal in each region. We therefore undertook more detailed analyses, using imputation, logistic regression, genealogical analysis using the GENECLUSTER program and haplotype analysis. In the 1q41 region, the SNP rs11118883 emerged as a strong candidate based on all these analyses, sufficient to account for the signals at both rs6691170 and rs6687758. rs11118883 lies within a region with strong evidence of transcriptional regulatory activity and has been associated with expression of PDGFRB mRNA. For 12q13.13, a complex situation was found: SNP rs7972465 showed stronger association than either rs11169552 or rs7136702, and GENECLUSTER found no good evidence for a two-SNP model. However, logistic regression and haplotype analyses supported a two-SNP model, in which a signal at the SNP rs706793 was added to that at rs11169552. Post-GWAS fine-mapping studies are challenging, but the use of multiple tools can assist in identifying candidate functional variants in at least some cases.

Whole-genome methylation analysis of benign and malignant colorectal tumours.

Changes in DNA methylation, whether hypo- or hypermethylation, have been shown to be associated with the progression of colorectal cancer. Methylation changes substantially in the progression from normal mucosa to adenoma and to carcinoma. This phenomenon has not been studied extensively and studies have been restricted to individual CpG islands, rather than taking a whole-genome approach. We aimed to study genome-wide methylation changes in colorectal cancer. We obtained 10 fresh-frozen normal tissue-cancer sample pairs, and five fresh-frozen adenoma samples. These were run on the lllumina HumanMethylation27 whole-genome methylation analysis system. Differential methylation between normal tissue, adenoma and carcinoma was analysed using Bayesian regression modelling, gene set enrichment analysis (GSEA) and hierarchical clustering (HC). The highest-rated individual gene for differential methylation in carcinomas versus normal tissue and adenomas versus normal tissue was GRASP (padjusted = 1.59 × 10(-5) , BF = 12.62, padjusted = 1.68 × 10(-6) , BF = 14.53). The highest-rated gene when comparing carcinomas versus adenomas was ATM (padjusted = 2.0 × 10(-4) , BF = 10.17). Hierarchical clustering demonstrated poor clustering by the CIMP criteria for methylation. GSEA demonstrated methylation changes in the Netrin-DCC and SLIT-ROBO pathways. Widespread changes in DNA methylation are seen in the transition from adenoma to carcinoma. The finding that GRASP, which encodes the general receptor for phosphoinositide 1-associated scaffold protein, was differentially methylated in colorectal cancer is interesting. This may be a potential biomarker for colorectal cancer.

Mitochondrial tumour suppressors: a genetic and biochemical update.

Since the discovery 5 years ago that the D-subunit of succinate dehydrogenase (SDHD) can behave as a classic tumour suppressor, other nuclear-encoded mitochondrial proteins (SDHB, SDHC and fumarate hydratase) have been implicated in tumour susceptibility. Mutations in these proteins are principally involved in familial predisposition to benign tumours, but the spectrum of inherited lesions is increasingly recognized to include malignant tumours, such as malignant phaeochromocytomas and renal cell carcinomas. Here we review recent advances in the field of mitochondrial tumour suppressors, the biochemical pathway that links mitochondrial dysfunction with tumorigenesis, and potential therapeutic approaches to these malignancies.

Tissue, cell and stage specificity of (epi)mutations in cancers.

Most (epi)mutations in cancers are specific to particular tumours or occur at specific stages of development, cell differentiation or tumorigenesis. Simple molecular mechanisms, such as tissue-restricted gene expression, seem to explain these associations only in rare cases. Instead, the specificity of (epi)mutations is probably due to the selection of a restricted spectrum of genetic changes by the cellular environment. In some cases, the resulting functional defects might be constrained to be neither too strong nor too weak for tumour growth to occur; that is, they lie within a 'window' that is permissive for tumorigenesis.

Multiple common susceptibility variants near BMP pathway loci GREM1, BMP4, and BMP2 explain part of the missing heritability of colorectal cancer.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 14 tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (tagSNPs) that are associated with the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC), and several of these tagSNPs are near bone morphogenetic protein (BMP) pathway loci. The penalty of multiple testing implicit in GWAS increases the attraction of complementary approaches for disease gene discovery, including candidate gene- or pathway-based analyses. The strongest candidate loci for additional predisposition SNPs are arguably those already known both to have functional relevance and to be involved in disease risk. To investigate this proposition, we searched for novel CRC susceptibility variants close to the BMP pathway genes GREM1 (15q13.3), BMP4 (14q22.2), and BMP2 (20p12.3) using sample sets totalling 24,910 CRC cases and 26,275 controls. We identified new, independent CRC predisposition SNPs close to BMP4 (rs1957636, P = 3.93×10(-10)) and BMP2 (rs4813802, P = 4.65×10(-11)). Near GREM1, we found using fine-mapping that the previously-identified association between tagSNP rs4779584 and CRC actually resulted from two independent signals represented by rs16969681 (P = 5.33×10(-8)) and rs11632715 (P = 2.30×10(-10)). As low-penetrance predisposition variants become harder to identify-owing to small effect sizes and/or low risk allele frequencies-approaches based on informed candidate gene selection may become increasingly attractive. Our data emphasise that genetic fine-mapping studies can deconvolute associations that have arisen owing to independent correlation of a tagSNP with more than one functional SNP, thus explaining some of the apparently missing heritability of common diseases.

A basal gradient of Wnt and stem-cell number influences regional tumour distribution in human and mouse intestinal tracts.

OBJECTIVE: Wnt signalling is critical for normal intestinal development and homeostasis. Wnt dysregulation occurs in almost all human and murine intestinal tumours and an optimal but not excessive level of Wnt activation is considered favourable for tumourigenesis. The authors assessed effects of pan-intestinal Wnt activation on tissue homeostasis, taking into account underlying physiological Wnt activity and stem-cell number in each region of the bowel. DESIGN: The authors generated mice that expressed temporally controlled, stabilised ß-catenin along the crypt-villus axis throughout the intestines. Physiological Wnt target gene activity was assessed in different regions of normal mouse and human tissue. Human intestinal tumour mutation spectra were analysed. RESULTS: In the mouse, ß-catenin stabilisation resulted in a graduated neoplastic response, ranging from dysplastic transformation of the entire epithelium in the proximal small bowel to slightly enlarged crypts of non-dysplastic morphology in the colorectum. In contrast, stem and proliferating cell numbers were increased in all intestinal regions. In the normal mouse and human intestines, stem-cell and Wnt gradients were non-identical, but higher in the small bowel than large bowel in both species. There was also variation in the expression of some Wnt modulators. Human tumour analysis confirmed that different APC mutation spectra are selected in different regions of the bowel. CONCLUSIONS: There are variable gradients in stem-cell number, physiological Wnt activity and response to pathologically increased Wnt signalling along the crypt-villus axis and throughout the length of the intestinal tract. The authors propose that this variation influences regional mutation spectra, tumour susceptibility and lesion distribution in mice and humans.

Survival in stage II/III colorectal cancer is independently predicted by chromosomal and microsatellite instability, but not by specific driver mutations.

OBJECTIVES: Microsatellite instability (MSI) is an established marker of good prognosis in colorectal cancer (CRC). Chromosomal instability (CIN) is strongly negatively associated with MSI and has been shown to be a marker of poor prognosis in a small number of studies. However, a substantial group of "double-negative" (MSI-/CIN-) CRCs exists. The prognosis of these patients is unclear. Furthermore, MSI and CIN are each associated with specific molecular changes, such as mutations in KRAS and BRAF, that have been associated with prognosis. It is not known which of MSI, CIN, and the specific gene mutations are primary predictors of survival. METHODS: We evaluated the prognostic value (disease-free survival, DFS) of CIN, MSI, mutations in KRAS, NRAS, BRAF, PIK3CA, FBXW7, and TP53, and chromosome 18q loss-of-heterozygosity (LOH) in 822 patients from the VICTOR trial of stage II/III CRC. We followed up promising associations in an Australian community-based cohort (N=375). RESULTS: In the VICTOR patients, no specific mutation was associated with DFS, but individually MSI and CIN showed significant associations after adjusting for stage, age, gender, tumor location, and therapy. A combined analysis of the VICTOR and community-based cohorts showed that MSI and CIN were independent predictors of DFS (for MSI, hazard ratio (HR)=0.58, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.36-0.93, and P=0.021; for CIN, HR=1.54, 95% CI 1.14-2.08, and P=0.005), and joint CIN/MSI testing significantly improved the prognostic prediction of MSI alone (P=0.028). Higher levels of CIN were monotonically associated with progressively poorer DFS, and a semi-quantitative measure of CIN was a better predictor of outcome than a simple CIN+/- variable. All measures of CIN predicted DFS better than the recently described Watanabe LOH ratio. CONCLUSIONS: MSI and CIN are independent predictors of DFS for stage II/III CRC. Prognostic molecular tests for CRC relapse should currently use MSI and a quantitative measure of CIN rather than specific gene mutations.

Genomic instability--the engine of tumorigenesis?

Human cancers harbour numerous mutations and it has been proposed that these result from some form of inherent genomic instability. Some cancers have proven genomic instability or features that are indicative of this. Inherited cancer syndromes exist that are caused by deficient DNA repair or chromosomal integrity. By contrast, theoretical analysis and experimental data from sporadic colorectal tumours provide little general evidence of genomic instability in early lesions. These apparently conflicting data raise the question of whether or not genomic instability is necessary for driving tumour growth, and whether or not it is the usual initiating event in tumorigenesis.