RESUMO
Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has emerged as an effective tool for monitoring SARS-CoV-2 dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we add a spatial component to WBE and use it to investigate SARS-CoV-2 spread in the canton of Ticino during the onset of the pandemic in Switzerland (end of February 2020 to beginning of March 2020). Ticino is located at the border to Northern Italy, where a large COVID-19 outbreak occurred in February 2020. Not surprisingly, Ticino was the site of the first clinically confirmed COVID-19 case in Switzerland. We retrospectively analyzed daily influent samples from nine wastewater treatment plants in Ticino that jointly cover an area of 20 km × 60 km and 351,000 people (>99% of the population). Our result is a fine-grained view of the spatiotemporal evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in this canton. The wastewater analysis revealed that by February 29, 2020, SARS-CoV-2 had already spread to all catchments. At the same time, only four individual cases had been clinically confirmed across the region served by the treatment plants investigated. Our results demonstrate that WBE could serve as a versatile tool to monitor the introduction and spread of an infectious agent on a regional scale. To fully exploit its utility, WBE should be implemented in real time and become an integral part of future disease surveillance efforts.
RESUMO
Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) has been shown to coincide with, or anticipate, confirmed COVID-19 case numbers. During periods with high test positivity rates, however, case numbers may be underreported, whereas wastewater does not suffer from this limitation. Here we investigated how the dynamics of new COVID-19 infections estimated based on wastewater monitoring or confirmed cases compare to true COVID-19 incidence dynamics. We focused on the first pandemic wave in Switzerland (February to April, 2020), when test positivity ranged up to 26%. SARS-CoV-2 RNA loads were determined 2-4 times per week in three Swiss wastewater treatment plants (Lugano, Lausanne and Zurich). Wastewater and case data were combined with a shedding load distribution and an infection-to-case confirmation delay distribution, respectively, to estimate infection incidence dynamics. Finally, the estimates were compared to reference incidence dynamics determined by a validated compartmental model. Incidence dynamics estimated based on wastewater data were found to better track the timing and shape of the reference infection peak compared to estimates based on confirmed cases. In contrast, case confirmations provided a better estimate of the subsequent decline in infections. Under a regime of high-test positivity rates, WBE thus provides critical information that is complementary to clinical data to monitor the pandemic trajectory.