Evaluation of the Fiscal Costs and Consequences of Alzheimer's Disease in Germany: Microsimulation of Patients' and Caregivers' Pathways.

BACKGROUND: Alzheimer's disease is a severe condition, impacting individual's wellbeing and independence in daily activities. Informal care provision is common and of great value to societies but is not without negative externalities to households and the broader economy. OBJECTIVES: Estimate the lifetime incremental fiscal consequences of Alzheimer's disease in community-based individuals and their informal caregivers. SETTING: The fiscal consequences of Alzheimer's disease was modeled using the German government and social security perspective. PARTICIPANTS: Synthetic cohort containing 1,000 pairs of people with Alzheimer's disease and their informal caregivers, compared to 1,000 demographically identical pairs from the general population. DESIGN: Disease progression was modeled using published equations and a state-transition microsimulation framework. Labor participation, financial support and paid taxes were estimated according to cognitive decline and caregiving responsibilities using German labor statistics and tax rates. Healthcare costs were sourced from several German publications. Costs and life-years were discounted at 3% annually. MEASUREMENTS: Results are reported as lifetime incremental differences in total tax revenue and transfer payments between the cohort affected by Alzheimer's disease and their general population analogues. RESULTS: The Alzheimer's disease-affected pair was associated with net incremental fiscal losses of €74,288 ($85,037) to the German government and social security over the lifetime of people with Alzheimer's disease. Most costs were lost taxes on employment earnings (48.4%) due to caregivers working reduced hours. Caregivers were estimated to earn €56,967 ($65,209) less than their general population analogues. Financial support for informal and formal care accounted for 20.4%, and medical healthcare costs represented 24.0% of the incremental fiscal losses. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the model results. In a cohort with early onset Alzheimer's disease, incremental fiscal losses were predicted to be €118,533 ($114,209) over the lifetime of people with Alzheimer's disease. CONCLUSIONS: Alzheimer's disease externalities profoundly impact public economics for governments and should be considered to inform policy making and healthcare planning.

Modelling the Pan-European Economic Burden of Alzheimer's Disease.

Background: Recent advances open the opportunity of altering the course of Alzheimer's disease (AD) through lifestyle-based modifications and novel therapies. Ensuring that society is investing limited budgets in the interventions that have the greatest potential to generate tangible impact will require tools to guide policymakers. Objectives: To build on previous studies to develop an economic model that estimates the societal burden of AD and evaluates the potential impact of novel interventions in six large European countries. Design: AD progression was modelled using a published Markov structure with a 40-year time horizon to estimate lifetime costs and life years in a cohort aged 65 years and above diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment due to AD (MCI-AD) in 2020. Demographic projections were utilized to estimate the prevalence of MCI-AD up to 2100, total corresponding costs and life years. The model allows a comparison of costs associated with the introduction of a hypothetical new disease-modifying therapy that slows disease progression between MCI-AD and all AD-Dementia stages as well as a 'delayed onset' scenario where disease progression is halted at the MCI-AD stage, potentially occurring, for example, through lifestyle-based modifications. Results: The 2022 present value of total lifetime costs for this cohort moving through all disease stages is ~€1.2T. Approximately 80% of the present value of lifetime costs in our model are driven by informal care and non-medical direct costs. Our model suggests that a 25% and 50% reduction in disease progression compared to natural history could translate into a present value of cost savings of €33.7B and €72.7B. Halting MCI-AD progression for 3 years with no therapeutic effect thereafter resulted in a present value cost savings of €84.7B in savings. Conclusions: Our data further suggest that early intervention via disease-modifying therapies or lifestyle-based modifications in AD could result in cost savings for society. Additionally, our findings reinforce the importance of accounting for the full value of innovative interventions, management and care paradigms, including their potential impact on direct, indirect and intangible costs impacting patients, their care partners and health and social care systems.