RESUMO
Seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns on a global scale are main factors to which insects and plants adapt through natural selection, although periodic outbreaks in insect populations may occur in areas where they had not been previously reported, a phenomenon considered as a consequence of global warming. In this study, we estimate the distribution of sugarcane borers, Diatraea spp., under different climate scenarios (rcp26, rcp45, rcp60 and rcp85.) Insects were collected weekly in four sugarcane fields from four different towns in the department of Caldas (Colombia) during 2017, and also in several sugarcane fields in the Cauca River Valley (CRV) between 2010 and 2017. The influence of climatic variables on different agro-ecological zones of the CRV sugarcane fields was defined by climatic data between 2010 and 2017 (maximum and minimum daily temperatures, and accumulated precipitation). The estimate of an optimal niche for Diatraea spp. includes temperatures between 20°C and 23°C, accumulated annual rainfall between 1200 and 1500 mm, dry months with precipitations below 50 mm, slopes of less than 0.05 degrees, crop heterogeneity with an index of 0.2 and primary production values of 1.0. Data suggests Diatraea population is considerably influenced by adverse climate change effects, under the premise of an increase in local and global temperatures, reducing its population niches as well as the number of individuals.
Assuntos
Mariposas , Animais , Mudança Climática , Colômbia , Aquecimento Global , Mariposas/fisiologia , Dinâmica Populacional , Chuva , Saccharum/parasitologia , Estações do AnoRESUMO
El clima es y seguirá siendo la principal variable que domina el crecimiento y desarrollo de las plantas. La lluvia, especialmente el acumulado de esta en un periodo de tiempo dado, tiene efecto directo sobre la fisiología y el desarrollo de los cultivos, mientras que la forma en que se distribuye la precipitación a través del año tiene un efecto significativo sobre la producción. A diferencia de otros estudios que se enfocan en evaluar el efecto de generadores de variabilidad climática sobre el acumulado de lluvias, este estudio tuvo como objetivo determinar el efecto de "El Niño" y "La Niña" sobre el comportamiento medio intraanual de la precipitación de la zona cafetera colombiana. Se utilizaron datos diarios de lluvia provenientes de 80 estaciones meteorológicas, que tienen registros continuos superiores a 25 años y que hacen parte de la red climática de la Federación Nacional de Cafeteros de Colombia, y conglomeración estadística para agrupar zonas en las que el efecto de "El Niño" y "La Niña" es similar. Se encontraron cuatro grupos que sintetizan los cuatro tipos de efectos de estos moduladores sobre la lluvia de la zona cafetera. Los resultados obtenidos evidencian que los departamentos que tienen una mayor amenaza causada por estos fenómenos son Caldas, Quindío, Risaralda, Tolima y la zona Norte del país.
The climate is and will continue to be the principal variable that dominates the growth and development of plants. Rain, specially its accumulation in a given period of time, has direct effect on the physiology and the development of crops, while the way in which precipitation is distributed throughout the year has a significant effect on production. Unlike other studies that focus in evaluating the effect of climatic variability generators on the accumulation of rain, this study aimed to determine the effect of "El Niño" and "La Niña" on the average behavior of intra-annual precipitation in the Colombian coffee region. Daily rainfall data from 80 weather stations with 25 years of continuous records that are part of National Federation of Colombian Coffee Growers were used as well as statistical conglomeration in order to to group zones in which the effect of "El Niño" and "La Niña" is similar. Four groups that synthesize four types of effects of these modulators on the rain of the coffee region were found. The results show that the departments that have a major threat caused by these phenomena are Caldas, Quindío, Risaralda, Tolima and the northern area of the country.