RESUMO
PURPOSE: Vitamin D deficiency has been associated with multiple chronic diseases, including metabolic disorders such as insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes (T2D). The aim of the study was to analyze the association between validated predicted serum vitamin D status and the risk of developing T2D in a large prospective cohort based on a Mediterranean population. METHODS: The SUN project is a prospective and dynamic Spanish cohort that gathers university graduates who have answered lifestyle questionnaires, including a validated Food Frequency Questionnaire. The association between predicted serum vitamin D and the risk of T2D was assessed through Cox regression models according to quartiles (Q) of predicted vitamin D at baseline. The models were adjusted for potential confounders and sensitivity analyses were performed to ensure the robustness of our findings. RESULTS: Our study included a total of 18,594 participants and after a total follow-up of 238,078 person-years (median follow-up of 13.5 years), 209 individuals were diagnosed with incident T2D. We found a significant inverse association between predicted levels of serum vitamin D and the risk of developing T2D, after adjusting for potential confounders and performing different sensitivity analyses (hazard ratio Q4 vs. Q1: 0.48, 95% CI 0.26-0.88; p for trend = 0.032). CONCLUSION: The outcomes suggest that higher levels of vitamin D at baseline may be associated with a reduced risk of developing T2D.