Association of time spent on social media with youth cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use in the UK: a national longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Social media may influence children and young people's health behaviour, including cigarette and e-cigarette use. METHODS: We analysed data from participants aged 10-25 years in the UK Household Longitudinal Study 2015-2021. The amount of social media use reported on a normal weekday was related to current cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use. Generalised estimating equation (GEE) logistic regression models investigated associations of social media use with cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use. Models controlled for possible confounders including age, sex, country of UK, ethnicity, household income and use of cigarette/e-cigarettes by others within the home. RESULTS: Among 10 808 participants with 27 962 observations, current cigarette smoking was reported by 8.6% of participants for at least one time point, and current e-cigarette use by 2.5% of participants. In adjusted GEE models, more frequent use of social media was associated with greater odds of current cigarette smoking. This was particularly apparent at higher levels of use (eg, adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 3.60, 95% CI 2.61 to 4.96 for ≥7 hours/day vs none). Associations were similar for e-cigarettes (AOR 2.73, 95% CI 1.40 to 5.29 for ≥7 hours/day social media use vs none). There was evidence of dose-response in associations between time spent on social media and both cigarette and e-cigarette use (both p<0.001). Analyses stratified by sex and household income found similar associations for cigarettes; however, for e-cigarettes associations were concentrated among males and those from higher household income groups. CONCLUSIONS: Social media use is associated with increased risk of cigarette smoking and e-cigarette use. There is a need for greater research on this issue as well as potential policy responses.

Changes in diet and physical activity following a community-wide pilot intervention to tackle childhood obesity in a deprived inner-London ward.

BACKGROUND: Local authorities in England have an important role in shaping healthy local environments contributing to childhood obesity. This study examined changes in diet and physical activity in primary school children following a three-year, complex, community-based intervention in Golborne ward, the second most deprived ward in London. METHODS: The Go-Golborne intervention aimed to shape the local environment across multiple settings with the engagement of a large number of local government and community stakeholders in a joint approach. Activities focused on six co-created themes to make changes to local environments and reduce sugary snacks and beverage consumption, increase fruit and vegetable intake, promote healthy snacks, increase active play and travel, and reduce screen time. We analysed changes in self-reported diet and physical activity, collected annually between 2016 and 2019, from 1,650 children aged 6-11 years through six local schools, who all received the intervention. We used multilevel, linear and logistic random-slope regression models adjusted for time on study, baseline age, gender, ethnicity, deprivation quintile, school, and baseline weight status. RESULTS: After three years of follow-up, there were reductions in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption (adjusted beta -0·43 occasions/day, 95% CI -0·55 to -0·32), fruit and vegetable consumption (adjusted beta -0.22 portions, 95% CI -0.44 to 0.001) and car travel to and from school (adjusted OR 0·19, 95% CI 0·06 to 0·66), while screen time increased (high versus moderate/low: OR 2·30, 95% CI 1·36 to 3·90). For other behavioural outcomes, there was no statistically significant evidence of changes. CONCLUSION: Local authorities have substantial powers to make positive changes to the obesogenic environment but programmes remain under-evaluated. Results from the ambitious Go-Golborne intervention demonstrated mixed results in health behaviours following programme implementation. These results underline the importance of a coordinated and comprehensive policy response to support changes in wider environmental and social conditions as well as appropriate and holistic evaluations of initiatives to inform local actions on obesogenic environments.

The ultra-processed food content of school meals and packed lunches in the UK, 2008-17: a pooled cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: British children have the highest ultra-processed food (UPF) intake in Europe, concerning as UPF is linked to adverse health outcomes. Schools are a potential setting for intervention, yet the rate of UPFs consumed at schools is currently unknown. This study aimed to describe the UPF content of school food in the UK and to explore differences in UPF content by meal type (school meals and packed lunches [food from home]) and children's household income. METHODS: We performed a pooled cross-sectional analysis of 1895 primary school children (aged 4-11 years) and 1408 secondary school children (aged 11-18 years) using data from the UK's National Diet and Nutrition Survey (from Feb, 2008, to June, 2017). Student's meal type was recorded using food diaries. UPF intake was defined using the NOVA food classification system. Income was measured through interview. We used quantile regression models to assess the association between meal type and lunchtime UPF intake (by both the percentage of calories and weight). We stratified models by school phase (primary or secondary) and interacted meal type with income. FINDINGS: The majority of schoolchildren's lunch was defined as UPFs, with secondary school children having higher median intakes of UPFs than primary school children (78% kcal [IQR 58-95] vs 73% kcal [55-86). School meals were associated with a lower median UPF intake than packed lunches for primary school children (61% kcal [IQR 44-75] vs 81% kcal [71-91]) and for secondary school children (70% kcal [IQR 48-89] vs 84% kcal [65-99]). Results were similar when UPFs were analysed as a percentage of the total weight of lunch. Overall, income was inversely associated with UPF lunch content. However, in primary school children, there was no significant association between percentage of UPF content of school meals by weight. INTERPRETATION: In the first nationally representative study, we showed that UK school children have a high intake of UPFs at lunch. UPF intake was increased in children who consumed packed lunches, secondary school children, and children of a lower income. School meal procurement policies must be re-evaluated to protect children from high UPF intake. FUNDING: This study was funded by the National Institute for Health Research School for Public Health Research.

Twenty-year trajectories of cardio-metabolic factors among people with type 2 diabetes by dementia status in England: a retrospective cohort study.

To assess 20-year retrospective trajectories of cardio-metabolic factors preceding dementia diagnosis among people with type 2 diabetes (T2D). We identified 227,145 people with T2D aged > 42 years between 1999 and 2018. Annual mean levels of eight routinely measured cardio-metabolic factors were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Multivariable multilevel piecewise and non-piecewise growth curve models assessed retrospective trajectories of cardio-metabolic factors by dementia status from up to 19 years preceding dementia diagnosis (dementia) or last contact with healthcare (no dementia). 23,546 patients developed dementia; mean (SD) follow-up was 10.0 (5.8) years. In the dementia group, mean systolic blood pressure increased 16-19 years before dementia diagnosis compared with patients without dementia, but declined more steeply from 16 years before diagnosis, while diastolic blood pressure generally declined at similar rates. Mean body mass index followed a steeper non-linear decline from 11 years before diagnosis in the dementia group. Mean blood lipid levels (total cholesterol, LDL, HDL) and glycaemic measures (fasting plasma glucose and HbA1c) were generally higher in the dementia group compared with those without dementia and followed similar patterns of change. However, absolute group differences were small. Differences in levels of cardio-metabolic factors were observed up to two decades prior to dementia diagnosis. Our findings suggest that a long follow-up is crucial to minimise reverse causation arising from changes in cardio-metabolic factors during preclinical dementia. Future investigations which address associations between cardiometabolic factors and dementia should account for potential non-linear relationships and consider the timeframe when measurements are taken.

Characterizing restrictions on commercial advertising and sponsorship of harmful commodities in local government policies: a nationwide study in England.

BACKGROUND: Commercial advertising and sponsorship drive the consumption of harmful commodities. Local authorities (LAs) have considerable powers to reduce such exposures. This study aimed to characterize local commercial policies across all English LAs. METHODS: We conducted a census of all English LAs (n = 333) to identify local commercial policies concerning advertising and sponsorship of tobacco, alcohol, less healthy foods and gambling, through online searches and Freedom of Information requests. We explored policy presence, commodity frequency and type, and associations with LA characteristics (region, urban/rural and deprivation). RESULTS: Only a third (106) of LAs in England had a relevant policy (32%). These included restrictions on tobacco (91%), gambling (79%), alcohol (74%) and/or less healthy foods (24%). Policy prevalence was lowest in the East of England (22%), North East (25%) and North West (27%), higher in urban areas (36%) than rural areas (28%) and lower in the least (27%) compared with the most (38%) deprived areas. Definitions in policies varied, particularly for alcohol and less healthy foods. CONCLUSIONS: English LAs currently underutilize their levers to reduce the negative impacts of harmful commodity industry marketing, particularly concerning less healthy foods. Standardized guidance, including clarity on definitions and application, could inform local policy development.

Ultra-processed foods and cancer risk: from global food systems to individual exposures and mechanisms.

Ultra-processed foods (UPFs) have become increasingly dominant globally, contributing to as much as 60% of total daily energy intake in some settings. Epidemiological evidence suggests this worldwide shift in food processing may partly be responsible for the global obesity epidemic and chronic disease burden. However, prospective studies examining the association between UPF consumption and cancer outcomes are limited. Available evidence suggests that UPFs may increase cancer risk via their obesogenic properties as well as through exposure to potentially carcinogenic compounds such as certain food additives and neoformed processing contaminants. We identify priority areas for future research and policy implications, including improved understanding of the potential dual harms of UPFs on the environment and cancer risk. The prevention of cancers related to the consumption of UPFs could be tackled using different strategies, including behaviour change interventions among consumers as well as bolder public health policies needed to improve food environments.

Dietary quality of school meals and packed lunches: a national study of primary and secondary schoolchildren in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: School lunches represent a key opportunity to improve diets and health of schoolchildren. No recent nationally representative studies have examined the nutritional differences between school meals and packed lunches in the UK. This study aimed to characterise and compare the nutritional quality of school meals and packed lunches among primary and secondary school-age children. DESIGN: A pooled cross-sectional analysis of the UK's National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2008-2017). SETTING: United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: 3001 children (aged 4-16 years) who completed a 3/4-d food diary which recorded meal type (school meal/packed lunch). Multivariable logistic regression models assessed associations of meeting food and nutrient recommendations by meal type. Analyses were stratified by academic key stages (KS). RESULTS: KS-1 (4-7 years) and 2 (8-11 years) children consuming school meals were more likely to meet minimum recommendations for vegetables, protein-rich foods and fibre, and not exceed maximum recommendations for salt, savoury and sweet snacks compared with pupils consuming packed lunches. However, in KS-3 (12-14 years) and 4 (14-16 years), these effects were reduced. As children aged, the median weight of fruits, vegetables, protein-rich foods and dairy products consumed typically decreased for both school meals and packed lunches, and generally an increasing proportion of school meals contained sweet and savoury snacks. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest school meals are nutritionally superior to packed lunches but are not yet optimal. Quality declined at higher KS. Actions to improve lunches of primary and secondary schoolchildren across the UK are needed, with attention to KS-3 and 4 in secondary schools.

Implications of armed conflict for maternal and child health: A regression analysis of data from 181 countries for 2000-2019.

BACKGROUND: Armed conflicts have major indirect health impacts in addition to the direct harms from violence. They create enduring political instability, destabilise health systems, and foster negative socioeconomic and environmental conditions-all of which constrain efforts to reduce maternal and child mortality. The detrimental impacts of conflict on global maternal and child health are not robustly quantified. This study assesses the association between conflict and maternal and child health globally. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data for 181 countries (2000-2019) from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and World Bank were analysed using panel regression models. Primary outcomes were maternal, under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality rates. Secondary outcomes were delivery by a skilled birth attendant and diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus (DPT) and measles vaccination coverage. Models were adjusted for 10 confounders, country and year fixed effects, and conflict lagged by 1 year. Further lagged associations up to 10 years post-conflict were tested. The number of excess deaths due to conflict was estimated. Out of 3,718 country-year observations, 522 (14.0%) had minor conflicts and 148 (4.0%) had wars. In adjusted models, conflicts classified as wars were associated with an increase in maternal mortality of 36.9 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births (95% CI 1.9-72.0; 0.3 million excess deaths [95% CI 0.2 million-0.4 million] over the study period), an increase in infant mortality of 2.8 per 1,000 live births (95% CI 0.1-5.5; 2.0 million excess deaths [95% CI 1.6 million-2.5 million]), a decrease in DPT vaccination coverage of 4.9% (95% CI 1.5%-8.3%), and a decrease in measles vaccination coverage of 7.3% (95% CI 2.7%-11.8%). The long-term impacts of war were demonstrated by associated increases in maternal mortality observed for up to 7 years, in under-5 mortality for 3-5 years, in infant mortality for up to 8 years, in DPT vaccination coverage for up to 3 years, and in measles vaccination coverage for up to 2 years. No evidence of association between armed conflict and neonatal mortality or delivery by a skilled birth attendant was found. Study limitations include the ecological study design, which may mask sub-national variation in conflict intensity, and the quality of the underlying data. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis indicates that armed conflict is associated with substantial and persistent excess maternal and child deaths globally, and with reductions in key measures that indicate reduced availability of organised healthcare. These findings highlight the importance of protecting women and children from the indirect harms of conflict, including those relating to health system deterioration and worsening socioeconomic conditions.

Impacts of the 2008 Great Recession on dietary intake: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The 2008 Great Recession significantly impacted economies and individuals globally, with potential impacts on food systems and dietary intake. We systematically reviewed evidence on the impact of the Great Recession on individuals' dietary intake globally and whether disadvantaged individuals were disproportionately affected. METHODS: We searched seven databases and relevant grey literature through June 2020. Longitudinal quantitative studies with the 2008 recession as the exposure and any measure of dietary intake (energy intake, dietary quality, and food/macronutrient consumption) as the outcome were eligible for inclusion. Eligibility was independently assessed by two reviewers. The Newcastle Ottawa Scale was used for quality and risk of bias assessment. We undertook a random effects meta-analysis for changes in energy intake. Harvest plots were used to display and summarise study results for other outcomes. The study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42019135864). RESULTS: Forty-one studies including 2.6 million people met our inclusion criteria and were heterogenous in both methods and results. Ten studies reported energy intake, 11 dietary quality, 34 food intake, and 13 macronutrient consumption. The Great Recession was associated with a mean reduction of 103.0 cal per adult equivalent per day (95% Confidence Interval: - 132.1, - 73.9) in high-income countries (5 studies) and an increase of 105.5 cal per adult per day (95% Confidence Interval: 72.8, 138.2) in middle-income countries (2 studies) following random effects meta-analysis. We found reductions in fruit and vegetable intake. We also found reductions in intake of fast food, sugary products, and soft drinks. Impacts on macronutrients and dietary quality were inconclusive, though suggestive of a decrease in dietary quality. The Great Recession had greater impacts on dietary intake for disadvantaged individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The 2008 recession was associated with diverse impacts on diets. Calorie intake decreased in high income countries but increased in middle income countries. Fruit and vegetable consumption reduced, especially for more disadvantaged individuals, which may negatively affect health. Fast food, sugary products, and soft drink consumption also decreased which may confer health benefits. Implementing effective policies to mitigate adverse nutritional changes and encourage positive changes during the COVID-19 pandemic and other major economic shocks should be prioritised.

Ultra-processed food consumption and risk of obesity: a prospective cohort study of UK Biobank.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to examine the associations between ultra-processed food consumption and risk of obesity among UK adults. METHODS: Participants aged 40-69 years at recruitment in the UK Biobank (2006-2019) with dietary intakes collected using 24-h recall and repeated measures of adiposity--body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and percentage of body fat (% BF)--were included (N = 22,659; median follow-up: 5 years). Ultra-processed foods were identified using the NOVA classification and their consumption was expressed as a percentage of total energy intake. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of several indicators of obesity according to ultra-processed food consumption. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics. RESULTS: 947 incident cases of overall obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) and 1900 incident cases of abdominal obesity (men: WC ≥ 102 cm, women: WC ≥ 88 cm) were identified during follow-up. Participants in the highest quartile of ultra-processed food consumption had significantly higher risk of developing overall obesity (HR 1.79; 95% CI 1.06─3.03) and abdominal obesity (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.14─1.48). They had higher risk of experiencing a ≥ 5% increase in BMI (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.20─1.43), WC (HR 1.35; 95% CI 1.25─1.45) and %BF (HR 1.14; 95% CI 1.03─1.25), than those in the lowest quartile of consumption. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide evidence that higher consumption of ultra-processed food is strongly associated with a higher risk of multiple indicators of obesity in the UK adult population. Policy makers should consider actions that promote consumption of fresh or minimally processed foods and reduce consumption of ultra-processed foods.

Is the healthy start scheme associated with increased food expenditure in low-income families with young children in the United Kingdom?

BACKGROUND: Healthy Start is a food assistance programme in the United Kingdom (UK) which aims to provide a nutritional safety-net and enable low-income families on welfare benefits to access a healthier diet through the provision of food vouchers. Healthy Start was launched in 2006 but remains under-evaluated. This study aims to determine whether participation in the Healthy Start scheme is associated with differences in food expenditure in a nationally representative sample of households in the UK. METHODS: Cross-sectional analyses of the Living Costs and Food Survey dataset (2010-2017). All households with a child (0-3 years) or pregnant woman were included in the analysis (n = 4869). Multivariable quantile regression compared the expenditure and quantity of fruit and vegetables (FV), infant formula and total food purchases. Four exposure groups were defined based on eligibility, participation and income (Healthy Start Participating, Eligible Non-participating, Nearly Eligible low-income and Ineligible high-income households). RESULTS: Of 876 eligible households, 54% participated in Healthy Start. No statistically significant differences were found in FV or total food purchases between participating and eligible non-participating households, but infant formula purchases were lower in Healthy Start participating households. Ineligible higher-income households had higher purchases of FV. CONCLUSION: This study did not find evidence of an association between Healthy Start participation and FV expenditure. Moreover, inequalities in FV purchasing persist in the UK. Higher participation and increased voucher value may help to improve programme performance and counteract the harmful effects of poverty on diet.

Impact of banning smoking in cars with children on exposure to second-hand smoke: a natural experiment in England and Scotland.

England banned smoking in cars carrying children in 2015 and Scotland in 2016. We used survey data from 3 years for both countries (NEngland=3483-6920, NScotland=232-319) to assess effects of the English ban using logistic regression within a difference-in-differences framework. Among children aged 13-15 years, self-reported levels of regular exposure to smoke in cars for Scotland were 3.4% in 2012, 2.2% in 2014 and 1.3% in 2016 and for England 6.3%, 5.9% and 1.6%. The ban in England was associated with a -4.1% (95% CI -4.9% to -3.3%) absolute reduction (72% relative reduction) in exposure to tobacco smoke among children.

Estimating indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations: panel regression analyses of 193 countries, 1990-2017.

BACKGROUND: Armed conflict can indirectly affect population health through detrimental impacts on political and social institutions and destruction of infrastructure. This study aimed to quantify indirect mortality impacts of armed conflict in civilian populations globally and explore differential effects by armed conflict characteristics and population groups. METHODS: We included 193 countries between 1990 and 2017 and constructed fixed effects panel regression models using data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and Global Burden of Disease study. Mortality rates were corrected to exclude battle-related deaths. We assessed separately four different armed conflict variables (capturing binary, continuous, categorical, and quintile exposures) and ran models by cause-specific mortality stratified by age groups and sex. Post-estimation analyses calculated the number of civilian deaths. RESULTS: We identified 1118 unique armed conflicts. Armed conflict was associated with increases in civilian mortality-driven by conflicts categorised as wars. Wars were associated with an increase in age-standardised all-cause mortality of 81.5 per 100,000 population (ß 81.5, 95% CI 14.3-148.8) in adjusted models contributing 29.4 million civilian deaths (95% CI 22.1-36.6) globally over the study period. Mortality rates from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (ß 51.3, 95% CI 2.6-99.9); non-communicable diseases (ß 22.7, 95% CI 0.2-45.2); and injuries (ß 7.6, 95% CI 3.4-11.7) associated with war increased, contributing 21.0 million (95% CI 16.3-25.6), 6.0 million (95% CI 4.1-8.0), and 2.4 million deaths (95% CI 1.7-3.1) respectively. War-associated increases in all-cause and cause-specific mortality were found across all age groups and both genders, but children aged 0-5 years had the largest relative increases in mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Armed conflict, particularly war, is associated with a substantial indirect mortality impact among civilians globally with children most severely burdened.

Associations of increases in public transport use with physical activity and adiposity in older adults.

BACKGROUND: We investigated predictors of two increases in older people's public transport use: initiating public transport use among non-users; and increasing public transport use amongst users. We also investigated associations of these changes with physical activity, Body Mass Index (BMI) and waist circumference. METHODS: Data come from the 2008 and 2012 English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). Logistic regression assessed predictors of increases in public transport use among adults aged ≥50 years. Gender-stratified logistic and linear models assessed associations of increases in public transport use with changes in physical activity and adiposity. RESULTS: Those becoming eligible for a free older person's bus pass were more likely to both initiate and increase public transport use (e.g. for initiating public transport use Adjusted Odds Ratio (AORs) 1.77, 95% Confidence Interval 1.35; 2.33). Retiring from paid work was also associated with both initiating and increasing public transport use e.g. AOR 1.57 (1.29; 1.91) for initiating use. Women who increased public transport use had mean BMI 2.03 kg/m2 lower (- 2.84, - 1.21) at follow up than those who did not, although this was attenuated after adjusting for BMI at baseline (- 0.40 kg/m2, - 0.82, 0.01). After adjustment for baseline physical activity those initiating public transport use were more likely to undertake at least some physical activity in 2012 (e.g. AOR for women 1.67, 1.03; 2.72). CONCLUSIONS: Both initiating and increasing public transport use were associated with increased physical activity and may be associated with lower adiposity among women. These findings strengthen the case for considering public transport provision as an effective means of promoting healthier ageing.

Gender differences in hospital admissions for major cardiovascular events and procedures in people with and without diabetes in England: a nationwide study 2004-2014.

BACKGROUND: Secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) has improved immensely during the past decade but controversies persist on cardiovascular benefits among women with diabetes. We investigated 11-year trends in hospital admission rates for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), and coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) in people with and without diabetes by gender in England. METHODS: We identified all hospital admissions for cardiovascular disease causes among people aged 17 years and above between 2004 and 2014 in England. We calculated diabetes-specific and non-diabetes-specific rates for study outcomes by gender. To assess temporal changes, we fitted negative binomial regression models. RESULTS: Diabetes-related admission rates remained unchanged for AMI (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.99 [95% CI 0.98-1.01]), increased for stroke by 2% (1.02 [1.01-1.03]) and PCI by 3% (1.03 [1.01-1.04]) and declined for CABG by 3% (0.97 [0.96-0.98]) annually. Trends did not differ significantly by diabetes status. Women with diabetes had significantly lower rates of AMI (IRR 0.46 [95% CI 0.40-0.53]) and stroke (0.73 [0.63-0.84]) compared with men with diabetes. However, gender differences in admission rates for AMI attenuated in diabetes compared with the non-diabetic group. While diabetes tripled admission rates for AMI in men (IRR 3.15 [95% CI 2.72-3.64]), it increased it by over fourfold among women (4.27 [3.78-4.93]). Furthermore, while the presence of diabetes was associated with a threefold increased rates for PCI and fivefold increased rates for CABG (IRR 3.14 [2.83-3.48] and 5.01 [4.59-5.05], respectively) in men, among women diabetes was associated with a 4.4-fold increased admission rates for PCI and 6.2-fold increased rates for CABG (4.37 [3.93-4.85] and 6.24 [5.66-6.88], respectively). Proportional changes in rates were similar in men and women for all study outcomes, leaving the relative risk of admissions unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes still confers a greater increase in risk of hospital admission for AMI in women relative to men. However, the absolute risk remains higher in men. These results call for intensified CVD risk factor management among people with diabetes, consideration of gender-specific treatment targets and treatment intensity to be aligned with levels of CVD risk.

Effectiveness of the influenza vaccine in preventing admission to hospital and death in people with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: The health burden caused by seasonal influenza is substantial. We sought to examine the effectiveness of influenza vaccination against admission to hospital for acute cardiovascular and respiratory conditions and all-cause death in people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using primary and secondary care data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink in England, over a 7-year period between 2003/04 and 2009/10. We enrolled 124 503 adults with type 2 diabetes. Outcome measures included admission to hospital for acute myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, heart failure or pneumonia/influenza, and death. We fitted Poisson regression models for influenza and off-season periods to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) for cohorts who had and had not received the vaccine. We used estimates for the summer, when influenza activity is low, to adjust for residual confounding. RESULTS: Study participants contributed to 623 591 person-years of observation during the 7-year study period. Vaccine recipients were older and had more comorbid conditions compared with nonrecipients. After we adjusted for covariates and residual confounding, vaccination was associated with significantly lower admission rates for stroke (IRR 0.70, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.53-0.91), heart failure (IRR 0.78, 95% CI 0.65-0.92) and pneumonia or influenza (IRR 0.85, 95% CI 0.74-0.99), as well as all-cause death (IRR 0.76, 95% CI 0.65-0.83), and a nonsignificant change for acute MI (IRR 0.81, 95% CI 0.62-1.04) during the influenza seasons. INTERPRETATION: In this cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes, influenza vaccination was associated with reductions in rates of admission to hospital for specific cardiovascular events. Efforts should be focused on improvements in vaccine uptake in this important target group as part of comprehensive secondary prevention.

Impact of the National Health Service Health Check on cardiovascular disease risk: a difference-in-differences matching analysis.

BACKGROUND: The National Health Service Health Check program in England is the largest cardiovascular risk assessment and management program in the world. We assessed the effect of this program on modelled risk of cardiovascular disease, individual risk factors for cardiovascular disease, prescribing of relevant medications and diagnosis of vascular disease. METHODS: We obtained retrospective electronic medical records for a randomly selected sample of 138 788 patients aged 40-74 years registered with 462 English general practices participating in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink between 2009 and 2013. We used a quasi-experimental design of difference-indifferences matching analysis to compare changes in outcomes between Health Check attendees and nonattendees, with a median follow-up time of 2 years. RESULTS: Overall, 21.4% of the eligible population attended a Health Check. After matching (n = 29 672 in each group), attendees had a significant absolute reduction in modelled risk for cardiovascular disease (-0.21%, 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.24% to -0.19%) and individual risk factors: systolic blood pressure (-2.51 mm Hg, 95% CI -2.77 to -2.25 mm Hg), diastolic blood pressure (-1.46 mm Hg, 95% CI -1.62 to -1.29 mm Hg), body mass index (-0.27, 95% CI -0.34 to -0.20) and total cholesterol (-0.15 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.18 to -0.13 mmol/L). Statins were prescribed for 39.9% of attendees who were at high risk for cardiovascular disease. The program resulted in significantly more diagnoses of selected vascular diseases among attendees, with the largest increases for hypertension (2.99%) and type 2 diabetes mellitus (1.31%). INTERPRETATION: The National Health Service Health Check program had statistically significant but clinically modest impacts on modelled risk for cardiovascular disease and individual risk factors, although diagnosis of vascular disease increased. Overall program performance was substantially below national and international targets, which highlights the need for careful planning, monitoring and evaluation of similar initiatives internationally.

Reducing non-communicable diseases among Palestinian populations in Gaza: A participatory comparative and cost-effectiveness modeling assessment.

We sought to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of potential new public health and healthcare NCD risk reduction efforts among Palestinians in Gaza. We created a microsimulation model using: (i) a cross-sectional household survey of NCD risk factors among 4,576 Palestinian adults aged ≥40 years old in Gaza; (ii) a modified Delphi process among local public health experts to identify potentially feasible new interventions; and (iii) reviews of intervention cost and effectiveness, modified to the Gazan and refugee contexts. The survey revealed 28.6% tobacco smoking, a 40.4% prevalence of hypertension diagnosis (with a 95.6% medication treatment rate), a 25.6% prevalence of diabetes diagnosis (with 95.3% on treatment), a 21.9% prevalence of dyslipidemia (with 79.6% on a statin), and a 9.8% prevalence of asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (without known treatment). A calibrated model estimated a loss of 9,516 DALYs per 10,000 population over the 10-year policy horizon. The interventions having an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) less than three times the GDP per capita of Palestine per DALY averted (<$10,992 per DALY averted)(<$10,992 per DALY averted) included bans on tobacco smoking in indoor and public places [$34 per incremental DALY averted (95% CI: $17, $50)], treatment of asthma using low dose inhaled beclometasone and short-acting beta-agonists [$140 per DALY averted (95% CI: $77, $207)], treatment of breast cancer stages I and II [$730 per DALY averted (95% CI: $372, $1,100)], implementing a mass media campaign for healthier nutrition [$737 per DALY averted (95% CI: $403, $1,100)], treatment of colorectal cancer stages I and II [$7,657 per DALY averted (95% CI: $3,721, $11,639)], and (screening with mammography [$17,054 per DALY averted (95% CI: $8,693, $25,359)]). Despite high levels of NCD risk factors among Palestinians in Gaza, we estimated that several interventions would be expected to reduce the loss of DALYs within common cost-effectiveness thresholds.

Evidence use in the UK's COVID-19 Free School Meals Policy: a thematic content analysis.

Free School Meals (FSM) are a well-recognised intervention for tackling food insecurity among school children. National school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic meant that there was a need to rapidly adapt the delivery of FSM. A range of food-assistance policies were implemented, but it is not clear if they were evidence-based. This study aimed to determine the transparency of evidence use and identify other competing influences in the UK's FSM policy decisions. Thematic content analysis was used to review 50 publicly available policy documents and debate transcripts on FSM policy published between March 2020-2021. This period covered the first national school closures (March 2020-July 2020), school holidays and the second national school closures (January 2021- March 2021). The Evidence Transparency Framework was used to assess the transparency of evidence use in policy documents. We found that overall transparency of evidence use was poor but was better for the Holiday Activities and Food (HAF) programme. The Government showed preference for replacing FSM with food parcels, rather than more agentic modes of food assistance such as cash-vouchers. This preference appeared to be closely aligned with ideological views on the welfare state. With an absence of evidence, value-based reasoning took precedent and was polarised by social media. This paper highlights the need for a formal review into FSM, one which includes a comparison of low and high agentic food assistance policies. Such a review would address the evidence gap, improve food assistance policy, and aid policymakers in future periods of uncertainty.