Consideration of the variability in control tumor incidence data at the Ramazzini Institute in evaluating treatment-related effects following chemical exposure.

The Ramazzini Institute (RI) has been conducting animal carcinogenicity studies for decades, many of which have been considered by authoritative bodies to determine potential carcinogenicity in humans. Unlike other laboratories, such as the U.S. National Toxicology Program (NTP), the RI does not provide a report or record of historical control data. Transparently documenting historical control data is critical in the interpretation of individual study results within the same laboratory. Historical control data allow an assessment of significant trends, either increasing or decreasing, resulting from changes in laboratory methods or genetic drift. In this investigation: (1) we compiled a dataset of the tumors reported in control groups of Sprague-Dawley rats and Swiss mice based on data included in published RI studies on specific substances, and (2) conducted case studies to compare data from this RI control dataset to the findings from multiple RI studies on sweeteners and corresponding breakdown products. We found considerable variability in the tumor incidence across multiple tumor types when comparing across control groups from RI studies. When compared to the tumor incidence in treated groups from multiple studies, the incidence of some tumors considered to be treatment-related fell within the variability of background incidence from the RI control dataset.

Re-expressing coefficients from regression models for inclusion in a meta-analysis.

Meta-analysis poses a challenge when original study results have been expressed in a non-uniform manner, such as when regression results from some original studies were based on a log-transformed key independent variable while in others no transformation was used. Methods of re-expressing regression coefficients to generate comparable results across studies regardless of data transformation have recently been developed. We examined the relative bias of three re-expression methods using simulations and 15 real data examples where the independent variable had a skewed distribution. Regression coefficients from models with log-transformed independent variables were re-expressed as though they were based on an untransformed variable. We compared the re-expressed coefficients to those from a model fit to the untransformed variable. In the simulated and real data, all three re-expression methods usually gave biased results, and the skewness of the independent variable predicted the amount of bias. How best to synthesize the results of the log-transformed and absolute exposure evidence streams remains an open question and may depend on the scientific discipline, scale of the outcome, and other considerations.

A weight of evidence evaluation of the mode of action of isoeugenol.

Isoeugenol is one of several phenylpropenoid compounds that is used as a fragrance, food flavoring agent and in aquaculture as a fish anesthetic. Carcinogenicity testing in rats and mice by NTP resulted in clear evidence of carcinogenicity (hepatic adenomas/carcinomas) in male mice only. A nongenotoxic threshold mode of action (MOA) is postulated for isoeugenol and is discussed considering the IPCS MOA and Human Relevance Framework. The weight of evidence indicates that isoeugenol is not genotoxic and that the carcinogenic outcome in male mice relates directly to the metabolism of individual compounds. Benchmark Dose (BMD) modeling was conducted to determine a Point of Departure (POD) and potential threshold of carcinogenicity. The results of the BMD evaluation for isoeugenol resulted in an estimated POD for carcinogenicity in the male mouse of 8 mg/kg with a lower limit of 4 mg/kg, representing a POD for the determination of an acceptable daily intake. With application of uncertainty factors, an ADI of 40 µg/kg is calculated. This daily dose in humans would be protective of human health, including carcinogenicity. A corresponding maximum residual level (MRL) of 3200 µg/kg fish is also estimated based on this POD that considers the threshold MOA.

Is the cholesterol-perfluoroalkyl substance association confounded by dietary fiber intake?: a Bayesian analysis of NHANES data with adjustment for measurement error in fiber intake.

BACKGROUND: Serum concentrations of total cholesterol and related lipid measures have been associated with serum concentrations of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in humans, even among those with only background-level exposure to PFAS. Fiber is known to decrease serum cholesterol and a recent report based on National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) showed that PFAS and fiber are inversely associated. We hypothesized that confounding by dietary fiber may account for some of the association between cholesterol and PFAS. METHODS: We implemented a Bayesian correction for measurement error in estimated intake of dietary fiber to evaluate whether fiber confounds the cholesterol-PFAS association. The NHANES measure of diet, two 24-h recalls, allowed calculation of an estimate of the "true" long-term fiber intake for each subject. We fit models to the NHANES data on serum cholesterol and serum concentration of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) and two other PFAS for 7,242 participants in NHANES. RESULTS: The Bayesian model, after adjustment for soluble fiber intake, suggested a decrease in the size of the coefficient for PFOA by 6.4% compared with the fiber-unadjusted model. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicated that the association of serum cholesterol with PFAS was not substantially confounded by fiber intake.

The effect of confounding variables in studies of lead exposure and IQ.

Methods proposed to address confounding variables frequently do not adequately distinguish confounding from covariation. A confounder is a variable that correlates both with the outcome and the major exposure variable. Accurate treatment of confounding is crucial to low dose extrapolation of the effects of chemical exposures based on epidemiology studies. This study explores the limitations of current regression models in extrapolation to the low dose region of the dose-response curve due to the existence of unrecognized and uncontrolled confounding, using epidemiological data for lead. Based on the reported data in analyses by Lanphear and colleagues and Crump and colleagues, and drawing on other studies, Wilson and Wilson considered maternal IQ, HOME score, SES, parental education, birthweight, smoking, and race as characteristic variables which may have interaction effects. This analysis identifies confounding variables based on the seven longitudinal cohorts in analyses conducted by Lanphear and colleagues and by Crump and colleagues and confirms maternal IQ, HOME score, maternal education and maternal marital status at birth are "Highly Likely" confounders, while race is a "Likely" confounder. The cohort data were reanalyzed using the methods presented by Crump and colleagues while also considering the interaction among the identified confounding variables. This analysis determined that confounders influence IQ estimates in a quantifiable way that may exceed or at least obscure previously-reported effects of blood lead on IQ with blood lead levels below 5 µg/dL; however, limitations in the datasets make predictions of the low dose dose-response analysis questionable.

Extended Analysis and Evidence Integration of Chloroprene as a Human Carcinogen.

ß-Chloroprene is used in the production of polychloroprene, a synthetic rubber. In 2010, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published the Integrated Risk Information System "Toxicological Review of Chloroprene," concluding that chloroprene was "likely to be carcinogenic to humans." This was based on findings from a 1998 National Toxicology Program (NTP) study showing multiple tumors within and across animal species; results from occupational epidemiological studies; a proposed mutagenic mode of action; and structural similarities with 1,3-butadiene and vinyl chloride. Using mouse data from the NTP study and assuming a mutagenic mode of action, EPA calculated an inhalation unit risk (IUR) for chloroprene of 5 × 10-4 per µg/m3 . This is among the highest IURs for chemicals classified by IARC or EPA as known or probable human carcinogens and orders of magnitude higher than the IURs for carcinogens such as vinyl chloride, benzene, and 1,3-butadiene. Due to differences in pharmacokinetics, mice appear to be uniquely responsive to chloroprene exposure compared to other animals, including humans, which is consistent with the lack of evidence of carcinogenicity in robust occupational epidemiological studies. We evaluated and integrated all lines of evidence for chloroprene carcinogenicity to assess whether the 2010 EPA IUR could be scientifically substantiated. Due to clear interspecies differences in carcinogenic response to chloroprene, we applied a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for chloroprene to calculate a species-specific internal dose (amount metabolized/gram of lung tissue) and derived an IUR that is over 100-fold lower than the 2010 EPA IUR. Therefore, we recommend that EPA's IUR be updated.

Updating physiologically based pharmacokinetic models for manganese by incorporating rapid association/dissociation processes in tissues.

Previously, we developed a series of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for manganese (Mn) in which saturable tissue binding and dose-dependent increases in biliary excretion captured key aspects of Mn homeostasis biology. These models reproduced the non-linear behavior of Mn kinetics in different tissues, accounting for dose-dependent changes in Mn kinetics. The original model construct had relatively slow association and dissociation rate constants for Mn binding in tissues. In this updated model, both rates of entry into tissue and the interaction of Mn with binding sites are rapid, and the step limiting Mn accumulation is the saturation of tissue binding sites. This binding reflects general cellular requirements for Mn with high affinity but rapid exchange between bound and free forms, which we captured using a dissociation constant (KD) of ~ 0.5 µM across tissues while maintaining different maximum binding capacities in each tissue. Variability in the binding capacities accounted for different background levels of Mn in particular tissues. This alternative structure successfully described Mn kinetics in tissues in adult rats exposed to Mn either in their diet or by inhalation, indicating that both the original and the present models capture the dose-dependent and tissue-specific kinetic behavior of Mn in adult rats. Although the published models that emphasize the role of smaller tissue binding rate constants in non-linear behaviors capture all relevant dose-dependent kinetic behaviors of this metal, increasing biological relevance of the model structure and parameters should provide greater confidence in applying the Mn PBPK models to risk assessment.

Incorporation of in vitro metabolism data and physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling in a risk assessment for chloroprene.

Objective: To develop a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for chloroprene in the mouse, rat and human, relying only on in vitro data to estimate tissue metabolism rates and partitioning, and to apply the model to calculate an inhalation unit risk (IUR) for chloroprene.Materials and methods: Female B6C3F1 mice were the most sensitive species/gender for lung tumors in the 2-year bioassay conducted with chloroprene. The PBPK model included tissue metabolism rate constants for chloroprene estimated from results of in vitro gas uptake studies using liver and lung microsomes. To assess the validity of the PBPK model, a 6-hr, nose-only chloroprene inhalation study was conducted with female B6C3F1 mice in which both chloroprene blood concentrations and ventilation rates were measured. The PBPK model was then used to predict dose measures - amounts of chloroprene metabolized in lungs per unit time - in mice and humans.Results: The mouse PBPK model accurately predicted in vivo pharmacokinetic data from the 6-hr, nose-only chloroprene inhalation study. The PBPK model was used to conduct a cancer risk assessment based on metabolism of chloroprene to reactive epoxides in the lung, the target tissue in mice. The IUR was over100-fold lower than the IUR from the EPA Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), which was based on inhaled chloroprene concentration. The different result from the PBPK model risk assessment arises from use of the more relevant tissue dose metric, amount metabolized, rather than inhaled concentrationDiscussion and conclusions: The revised chloroprene PBPK model is based on the best available science, including new test animal in vivo validation, updated literature review and a Markov-Chain Monte Carlo analysis to assess parameter uncertainty. Relying on both mouse and human metabolism data also provides an important advancement in the use of quantitative in vitro to in vivo extrapolation (QIVIVE). Inclusion of the best available science is especially important when deriving a toxicity value based on species extrapolation for the potential carcinogenicity of a reactive metabolite.

Reanalysis of Diesel Engine Exhaust and Lung Cancer Mortality in the Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study Cohort Using Alternative Exposure Estimates and Radon Adjustment.

The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) (United States, 1947-1997) reported positive associations between diesel engine exhaust exposure, estimated as respirable elemental carbon (REC), and lung cancer mortality. This reanalysis of the DEMS cohort used an alternative estimate of REC exposure incorporating historical data on diesel equipment, engine horsepower, ventilation rates, and declines in particulate matter emissions per horsepower. Associations with cumulative REC and average REC intensity using the alternative REC estimate and other exposure estimates were generally attenuated compared with original DEMS REC estimates. Most findings were statistically nonsignificant; control for radon exposure substantially weakened associations with the original and alternative REC estimates. No association with original or alternative REC estimates was detected among miners who worked exclusively underground. Positive associations were detected among limestone workers, whereas no association with REC or radon was found among workers in the other 7 mines. The differences in results based on alternative exposure estimates, control for radon, and stratification by worker location or mine type highlight areas of uncertainty in the DEMS data.

Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic modeling suggests similar bioavailability of Mn from diet and drinking water.

Due to concerns for enhanced absorption of manganese (Mn) from drinking water compared to diet, bioavailability of Mn from drinking water remains a major data gap in understanding Mn kinetics. In this study, PBPK models for adult rats and humans were updated with a drinking water exposure route and were used to assess the homeostatic control of Mn uptake, excretion and tissue kinetics between the two different ingestion modes. Drinking water model parameters were estimated from tissue kinetic data from a drinking water study in rats. The published study included a 10 ppm-Mn diet with additional Mn added to drinking water to give a total ingested Mn dose equivalent to that from a 200 ppm diet. The 200 ppm diet and equivalent mixed drinking water/diet exposures provided Mn concentrations for brain (striatum, olfactory bulb, and cerebellum), liver and bone after 7 and 61 days of Mn exposure. Modeling of these data sets indicated that (1) the oral Mn bioavailability is similar for diet or drinking water and (2) homeostatic control of gut uptake of Mn occurs with either drinking water or dietary ingestion. This updated description for absorption and distribution of Mn from gut was added to a human Mn-PBPK model to simulate Mn exposure from multiple routes of exposure (i.e. dietary intake, drinking water, and inhalation). This increases the utility of the Mn PBPK model by allowing for the simulation of multiple Mn exposure scenarios, including variable daily food and drinking water exposures in a human population.

A tissue dose-based comparative exposure assessment of manganese using physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling-The importance of homeostatic control for an essential metal.

A physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model (Schroeter et al., 2011) was applied to simulate target tissue manganese (Mn) concentrations following occupational and environmental exposures. These estimates of target tissue Mn concentrations were compared to determine margins of safety (MOS) and to evaluate the biological relevance of applying safety factors to derive acceptable Mn air concentrations. Mn blood concentrations measured in occupational studies permitted verification of the human PBPK models, increasing confidence in the resulting estimates. Mn exposure was determined based on measured ambient air Mn concentrations and dietary data in Canada and the United States (US). Incorporating dietary and inhalation exposures into the models indicated that increases in target tissue concentrations above endogenous levels only begin to occur when humans are exposed to levels of Mn in ambient air (i.e. >10µg/m3) that are far higher than those currently measured in Canada or the US. A MOS greater than three orders of magnitude was observed, indicating that current Mn air concentrations are far below concentrations that would be required to produce the target tissue Mn concentrations associated with subclinical neurological effects. This application of PBPK modeling for an essential element clearly demonstrates that the conventional application of default factors to "convert" an occupational exposure to an equivalent continuous environmental exposure, followed by the application of safety factors, is not appropriate in the case of Mn. PBPK modeling demonstrates that the relationship between ambient Mn exposures and dose-to-target tissue is not linear due to normal tissue background levels and homeostatic controls.

Stroke risk among menthol versus non-menthol cigarette smokers in the United States: Analysis of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES).

Though available evidence is relatively consistent in showing no additional health effects among smokers due to menthol in cigarettes, two studies reported conflicting results for stroke risk using different subsets of NHANES data. We investigated reasons for the differences in these reports by analyzing NHANES cycles conducted between 1999 and 2012, combined and in subsets. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) from three different survey logistic regression models compare risk of reported stroke diagnoses among menthol and non-menthol cigarette smokers. Depending on timeframe, about 1150 to 8000 U.S. adults (aged ≥ 20 years) who smoked on ≥ 1 of the last 30 days had complete data for cigarette type and all covariates included in each model. Results were not much affected by which covariates were included in the models, but depended strongly on the NHANES cycles included in the analysis. Using NHANES 1999-2012 data combined, AORs and 95% CIs for stroke comparing menthol with non-menthol cigarette smokers were 0.95 (95% CI: 0.65, 1.37), 0.85 (95% CI: 0.59, 1.23) or 0.86 (95% CI: 0.59, 1.25). Collectively, findings illustrate the need for fully reporting research and analytical methods, especially when analyses are meant to develop evidence intended for regulatory decision-making.

Predicting lung dosimetry of inhaled particleborne benzo[a]pyrene using physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling.

Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) is a by-product of incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and plant/wood products, including tobacco. A physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for BaP for the rat was extended to simulate inhalation exposures to BaP in rats and humans including particle deposition and dissolution of absorbed BaP and renal elimination of 3-hydroxy benzo[a]pyrene (3-OH BaP) in humans. The clearance of particle-associated BaP from lung based on existing data in rats and dogs suggest that the process is bi-phasic. An initial rapid clearance was represented by BaP released from particles followed by a slower first-order clearance that follows particle kinetics. Parameter values for BaP-particle dissociation were estimated using inhalation data from isolated/ventilated/perfused rat lungs and optimized in the extended inhalation model using available rat data. Simulations of acute inhalation exposures in rats identified specific data needs including systemic elimination of BaP metabolites, diffusion-limited transfer rates of BaP from lung tissue to blood and the quantitative role of macrophage-mediated and ciliated clearance mechanisms. The updated BaP model provides very good prediction of the urinary 3-OH BaP concentrations and the relative difference between measured 3-OH BaP in nonsmokers versus smokers. This PBPK model for inhaled BaP is a preliminary tool for quantifying lung BaP dosimetry in rat and humans and was used to prioritize data needs that would provide significant model refinement and robust internal dosimetry capabilities.

A global human health risk assessment for Decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

Decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) is a low-molecular-weight cyclic siloxane used primarily as an intermediate in the production of several widely-used industrial and consumer products and intentionally added to consumer products, personal products and some dry cleaning solvents. The global use requires consideration of consumer use information and risk assessment requirements from various sources and authoritative bodies. A global "harmonized" risk assessment was conducted to meet requirements for substance-specific risk assessments conducted by regulatory agencies such as USEPA's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), Health Canada and various independent scientific committees of the European Commission, as well as provide guidance for chemical safety assessments under REACH in Europe, and other relevant authoritative bodies. This risk assessment incorporates global exposure information combined with a Monte Carlo analysis to determine the most significant routes of exposure, utilization of a multi-species, multi-route physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to estimate internal dose metrics, benchmark modeling to determine a point of departure (POD), and a margin of safety (MOS) evaluation to compare the estimates of intake with the POD. Because of the specific pharmacokinetic behaviors of D5 including high lipophilicity, high volatility with low blood-to-air partition coefficients and extensive metabolic clearance that regulate tissue dose after exposure, the use of a PBPK model was essential to provide a comparison of a dose metric that reflects these processes. The characterization of the potential for adverse effects after exposure to D5 using a MOS approach based on an internal dose metric removes the subjective application of uncertainty factors that may be applied across various regulatory agencies and allows examination of the differences between internal dose metrics associated with exposure and those associated with adverse effects.

The need for transparency and reproducibility in documenting values for regulatory decision making and evaluating causality: The example of formaldehyde.

Reproducibility and transparency in scientific reporting is paramount to advancing science and providing the foundation required for sound regulation. Recent examples demonstrate that pivotal scientific findings cannot be replicated, due to poor documentation or methodological bias, sparking debate across scientific and regulatory communities. However, there is general agreement that improvements in communicating and documenting research and risk assessment methods are needed. In the case of formaldehyde, the peer-review conducted by a National Academy of Sciences (NAS) Committee questioned the approaches used by the Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) in developing draft unit risk values. Using the original data from the key study (Beane Freeman et al., 2009) and documentation provided in the draft IRIS profile, we attempted to duplicate the reported inhalation unit risk values and address the NAS Committee's questions regarding application of the appropriate dose-response model. Overall, documentation of the methods lacked sufficient detail to allow for replication of the unit risk estimates, specifically for Hodgkin lymphoma and leukemias, the key systemic endpoints selected by IRIS. The lack of apparent exposure-response relationships for selected endpoints raises the question whether quantitative analyses are appropriate for these endpoints, and if so, how results are to be interpreted.

Influence of Alternative Exposure Estimates in the Diesel Exhaust Miners Study: Diesel Exhaust and Lung Cancer.

The landmark Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) studied the relationship between diesel exhaust exposure (DEE) and lung cancer mortality of workers at eight nonmetal mines who were followed from beginning of dieselization of the mines (1947-1967) through December 31, 1997. The original analyses quantified DEE exposures using exposure to respirable elemental carbon (REC) to represent DEE, and CO as a surrogate for REC. However, this use of CO data, and the CO data themselves, have numerous shortcomings. We developed new estimates of REC exposures using historical data on use of diesel equipment, diesel engine horsepower (HP), mine ventilation rates, and the documented reduction in particulate matter emissions per HP in diesel engines from 1975 through 1995. These new REC estimates were applied in a conditional logistic regression of the DEMS nested case-control data very similar to the one applied in the original DEMS analyses. None of the trend slopes calculated using the new REC estimates were statistically significant (p > 0.05). Moreover, these trend slopes were smaller by roughly factors of five without control for radon exposure and factors of 12 with control for radon exposure compared to those estimated in the original DEMS analyses. Also, the 95% confidence intervals for these trend slopes had only minimal overlap with those for the slopes in the original DEMS analyses. These results underscore the uncertainty in estimates of the potency of diesel exhaust in causing lung cancer based on analysis of the DEMS data due to uncertainty in estimates of exposures to diesel exhaust.

Reanalysis of the DEMS nested case-control study of lung cancer and diesel exhaust: suitability for quantitative risk assessment.

The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in 2012 upgraded its hazard characterization of diesel engine exhaust (DEE) to "carcinogenic to humans." The Diesel Exhaust in Miners Study (DEMS) cohort and nested case-control studies of lung cancer mortality in eight U.S. nonmetal mines were influential in IARC's determination. We conducted a reanalysis of the DEMS case-control data to evaluate its suitability for quantitative risk assessment (QRA). Our reanalysis used conditional logistic regression and adjusted for cigarette smoking in a manner similar to the original DEMS analysis. However, we included additional estimates of DEE exposure and adjustment for radon exposure. In addition to applying three DEE exposure estimates developed by DEMS, we applied six alternative estimates. Without adjusting for radon, our results were similar to those in the original DEMS analysis: all but one of the nine DEE exposure estimates showed evidence of an association between DEE exposure and lung cancer mortality, with trend slopes differing only by about a factor of two. When exposure to radon was adjusted, the evidence for a DEE effect was greatly diminished, but was still present in some analyses that utilized the three original DEMS DEE exposure estimates. A DEE effect was not observed when the six alternative DEE exposure estimates were utilized and radon was adjusted. No consistent evidence of a DEE effect was found among miners who worked only underground. This article highlights some issues that should be addressed in any use of the DEMS data in developing a QRA for DEE.

Measures of initiation and progression to increased smoking among current menthol compared to non-menthol cigarette smokers based on data from four U.S. government surveys.

There are no large-scale, carefully designed cohort studies that provide evidence on whether menthol cigarette use is associated with a differential risk of initiating and/or progressing to increased smoking. However, questions of whether current menthol cigarette smokers initiated smoking at a younger age or are more likely to have transitioned from non-daily to daily cigarette use compared to non-menthol smokers can be addressed using cross-sectional data from U.S. government surveys. Analyses of nationally representative samples of adult and youth smokers indicate that current menthol cigarette use is not associated with an earlier age of having initiated smoking or greater likelihood of being a daily versus non-daily smoker. Some surveys likewise provide information on cigarette type preference (menthol versus non-menthol) among youth at different stages or trajectories of smoking, based on number of days smoked during the past month and/or cigarettes smoked per day. Prevalence of menthol cigarette use does not appear to differ among new, less experienced youth smokers compared to established youth smokers. While there are limitations with regard to inferences that can be drawn from cross-sectional analyses, these data do not suggest any adverse effects for menthol cigarettes on measures of initiation and progression to increased smoking.