Re-introduction of vivax malaria in a temperate area (Moscow region, Russia): a geographic investigation.

BACKGROUND: Between 1999 and 2008 Russia experienced a flare-up of transmission of vivax malaria following its massive importation with more than 500 autochthonous cases in European Russia, the Moscow region being the most affected. The outbreak waned soon after a decrease in importation in mid-2000s and strengthening the control measures. Compared with other post-eradication epidemics in Europe this one was unprecedented by its extension and duration. METHODS: The aim of this study is to identify geographical determinants of transmission. The degree of favourability of climate for vivax malaria was assessed by measuring the sum of effective temperatures and duration of season of effective infectivity using data from 22 weather stations. For geospatial analysis, the locations of each of 405 autochthonous cases detected in Moscow region have been ascertained. A MaxEnt method was used for modelling the territorial differentiation of Moscow region according to the suitability of infection re-emergence based on the statistically valid relationships between the distribution of autochthonous cases and environmental and climatic factors. RESULTS: In 1999-2004, in the beginning of the outbreak, meteorological conditions were extremely favourable for malaria in 1999, 2001 and 2002, especially within the borders of the city of Moscow and its immediate surroundings. The greatest number of cases occurred at the northwestern periphery of the city and in the adjoining rural areas. A significant role was played by rural construction activities attracting migrant labour, vegetation density and landscape division. A cut-off altitude of 200 m was observed, though the factor of altitude did not play a significant role at lower altitudes. Most likely, the urban heat island additionally amplified malaria re-introduction. CONCLUSION: The malariogenic potential in relation to vivax malaria was high in Moscow region, albeit heterogeneous. It is in Moscow that the most favourable conditions exist for vivax malaria re-introduction in the case of a renewed importation. This recent event of large-scale re-introduction of vivax malaria in a temperate area can serve as a case study for further research.

Cyclic and linear trajectories of ecosystem evolution on sand dunes in Siberian taiga: A comprehensive analysis.

Extensive unforested sandy areas on the margins of floodplains and riverbeds, formed by dunes, barchans, and accumulation berms, are a ubiquitous feature across northern Eurasia and Alaska. These dynamic landscapes, which bear witness to the complex Holocene and modern climatic fluctuations, provide a unique opportunity to study ecosystem evolution. Within this heterogeneous assemblage, active dunes, characterized by their very sparse plant communities, contrast sharply with the surrounding taiga (boreal) forests common for the stabilized dunes. This juxtaposition makes these regions to natural laboratories to study vegetation succession and soil development. Through a comprehensive analysis of climate, geomorphology, vegetation, soil properties, and microbiome composition, we elucidate the intricacies of cyclic and linear ecosystem evolution within a representative sandy area located along the lower Nadym River in Siberia, approximately 100 km south of the Arctic Circle. The shift in the Holocene wind regime and the slow development of vegetation under harsh climatic conditions promoted cyclical ecosystem dynamics that precluded the attainment of a steady state. This cyclical trajectory is exemplified by Arenosols, characterized by extremely sparse vegetation and undifferentiated horizons. Conversely, accelerated vegetation growth within wind-protected enclaves on marginally stabilized soils facilitated sand stabilization and subsequent pedogenesis towards Podzols. Based on soil acidification due to litter input (mainly needles, lichens, and mosses) and the succession of microbial communities, we investigated constraints on carbon and nutrient availability during the initial stages of pedogenesis. In summary, the comprehensive study of initial ecosystem development on sand dunes within taiga forests has facilitated the elucidation of both common phases and spatiotemporal dynamics of vegetation and soil succession. This analysis has further clarified the existence of both cyclic and linear trajectories within the successional processes of ecosystem evolution.

Does size matter? Modelling the cooling effect of green infrastructures in a megacity during a heat wave.

The vulnerability of urban ecosystems to global climate change becomes a key issue in research and political agendas. Urban green infrastructures (UGIs) are widely considered as a nature-based solution to mitigate climate change and adapt to local urban climate anomalies in cities. However, UGI-induced cooling effect depends on the size, location and geometry of green spaces, and such dependencies remain overlooked. This research aimed to investigate the cooling effect of UGIs of different size under extreme conditions of 2021 summer heat wave for the case of Moscow megacity (Russia) using a numerical mesoclimatic model COSMO. UGIs objects were assigned to one of the four size categories (S, M, L and XL) based on their area. Their cooling effects at the local, non-local and city scales were evaluated based on comparison between the model outcomes for the realistic land cover and simulations for which UGI of a particular size category were replaced by the built-up areas typical for their surroundings. The highest cooling effect was observed for XL size UGIs, which reduced the local heat-wave-averaged air temperatures by up to 3.4 °C, whereas for the S size UGIs it did not exceed 2 °C. The cooling effectiveness for XL category was higher than for S category by 23 % inside the green spaces (locally), by 40-90 % in the buffer zones around the green space (non-locally) and by 35 % for the whole city. More effective cooling of large UGIs is partially explained by their stronger park breeze effect, i.e., impact on the airflow increasing the divergence over green spaces. However, when standardized to the population affected by cooling, the M size UGIs made the strongest contribution to the thermal environment where people live and work. The stronger non-local cooling induced by the largest UGI objects cannot compensate for their remoteness from the built environment.

Intraurban social risk and mortality patterns during extreme heat events: A case study of Moscow, 2010-2017.

There is currently an increase in the number of heat waves occurring worldwide. Moscow experienced the effects of an extreme heat wave in 2010, which resulted in more than 10,000 extra deaths and significant economic damage. This study conducted a comprehensive assessment of the social risks existing during the occurrence of heat waves and allowed us to identify the spatial heterogeneity of the city in terms of thermal risk and the consequences for public health. Using a detailed simulation of the meteorological regime based on the COSMO-CLM regional climate model and the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET), a spatial assessment of thermal stress in the summer of 2010 was carried out. Based on statistical data, the components of social risk (vulnerabilities and adaptive capacity of the population) were calculated and mapped. We also performed an analysis of their changes in 2010-2017. A significant differentiation of the territory of Moscow has been revealed in terms of the thermal stress and vulnerability of the population to heat waves. The spatial pattern of thermal stress agrees quite well with the excess deaths observed during the period from July to August 2010. The identified negative trend of increasing vulnerability of the population has grown in most districts of Moscow. The adaptive capacity has been reduced in most of Moscow. The growth of adaptive capacity mainly affects the most prosperous areas of the city.

Effects of Climate Change and Heterogeneity of Local Climates оn the Development of Malaria Parasite (Plasmodium vivax) in Moscow Megacity Region.

The article presents the results of a spatio-temporal analysis of the changes of the favorability of climatic conditions for the transmission of vivax malaria in the Moscow megacity and its surroundings during the period from 1977 to 2016. Using the historical temperature records at urban and rural weather stations, we calculated the key indicators of climate favorability for malaria transmission, viz. the sum of effective temperatures, the duration of the season of effective infectiveness, and a new integral index of climate favorability. We demonstrated a dramatic increase of all three indicators, which accelerated after 1984, and a high spatial heterogeneity among them. Due to the urban heat island effect, the degree of climatic favorability is especially high in the densely urbanized areas of Moscow megacity compared with the suburban and rural areas. Climatic conditions for vivax malaria in Moscow are better now than before. The season of effective infectiveness continues in the central part of the city for 25 days longer, and the integral index of climate favorability is 85% higher in comparison to mean values over the rural surroundings. The study contains an alert regarding the risk of malaria resurgence in the Moscow region in the case of the sufficient importation of cases from abroad.