[Logistic model for predicting the prognosis in patients with intra-abdominal infection based on the APACHE II index]. / Modelo logístico de predicción del pronóstico en pacientes con infección intraabdominal a partir del índice APACHE II.

BACKGROUND: The APACHE II method has been widely used to classify patients according to disease severity. The high mortality and the lack of reliable prognostic parameters justify the study and application of indexes of severity (IS) and prognostic indexes (PI) in patients with intraabdominal sepsis. METHODS: A prospective study is presented concerning 100 patients with intraabdominal sepsis in whom a prognostic index derived from the APACHE II method by means of a logistic regression model was applied. In this model the APACHE II score is used as the only independent variable with the aim of predicting the outcome (mortality or survival) at the time of hospital admission. RESULTS: The predictive values obtained, with a 70% probability of mortality taken as the cut-off point, were: sensitivity 100%, specificity 87.7% and total predictive capacity 91%. CONCLUSIONS: It was concluded that the logistic prediction model of prognosis shows a high correlation with patient outcome and the application of the APACHE II score is useful in patients with intraabdominal infection.