Estimation of mortality rate ratios for chronic conditions with misclassification of disease status at death.

Estimation of mortality rates and mortality rate ratios (MRR) of diseased and non-diseased individuals is a core metric of disease impact used in chronic disease epidemiology. Estimation of mortality rates is often conducted through retrospective linkage of information from nationwide surveys such as the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) and death registries. These surveys usually collect information on disease status during only one study visit. This infrequency leads to missing disease information (with right censored survival times) for deceased individuals who were disease-free at study participation, and a possibly biased estimation of the MRR because of possible undetected disease onset after study participation. This occurrence is called "misclassification of disease status at death (MicDaD)" and it is a potentially common source of bias in epidemiologic studies. In this study, we conducted a simulation analysis with a high and a low incidence setting to assess the extent of MicDaD-bias in the estimated mortality. For the simulated populations, MRR for diseased and non-diseased individuals with and without MicDaD were calculated and compared. Magnitude of MicDaD-bias depends on and is driven by the incidence of the chronic disease under consideration; our analysis revealed a noticeable shift towards underestimation for high incidences when MicDaD is present. Impact of MicDaD was smaller for lower incidence (but associated with greater uncertainty in the estimation of MRR in general). Further research can consider the amount of missing information and potential influencers such as duration and risk factors of the disease.

Incidence of Parkinson's disease in Germany based on prevalence data from 70 million patients of the statutory health insurance.

BACKGROUND: Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder characterized by motor and nonmotor system manifestations and psychiatric symptoms. The aim of this study was to estimate the age- and sex-specific incidence of PD in Germany using an illness-death model and a corresponding partial differential equation (PDE) based on prevalence and mortality data. METHODS: Based on a PDE that describes the dynamics in an illness-death model, the age- and sex-specific incidence of PD in Germany was estimated using published prevalence and mortality rates. Prevalence rates were provided by the Central Institute for Statutory Health Insurance (Zi) for the period from 2010 to 2019. Parkinson's related mortality was estimated based on comparable population data from Norway. Bootstrapping was used for incidence estimation (median of 5000 samples) and to obtain 95% confidence intervals to interpret the accuracy of the incidence estimation. RESULTS: Men had higher incidences of PD than women at all ages. The highest incidences (median of 5000 bootstrap samples) for both groups were estimated for the age of 85 years with an incidence of 538.49 per 100,000 person-years (py) in men and 284.09 per 100,000 py in women, with an increasing width of bootstrapping 95% CIs showing greater uncertainty in the estimation at older ages. CONCLUSION: The illness-death model and the corresponding PDE, which describes changes in prevalence as a function of mortality and incidence, can be used to estimate the incidence of PD as a chronic disease. As overestimation of incidence is less likely with this method, we found incidence rates of Parkinson's disease that are suitable for further analyses with a lower risk of bias.

Cephalic Vein Cutdown Is Superior to Subclavian Puncture as Venous Access for Patients with Cardiac Implantable Devices after Long-Term Follow-Up.

BACKGROUND: Cephalic vein cutdown (CVC) and subclavian vein puncture (SVP) are the most commonly used access sites for transvenous lead placement of cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs). Limited knowledge exists about the long-term patency of the vascular lumen housing the leads. METHODS: Among the 2703 patients who underwent CIED procedures between 2005 and 2013, we evaluated the phlebographies of 162 patients scheduled for an elective CIED replacement (median of 6.4 years after the first operation). The phlebographies were divided into four stenosis types: Type I = 0%, Type II = 1-69%, Type III = 70-99%, and Type IV = occlusion. Due to the fact that no standardized stenosis categorization exists, experienced physicians in consensus with the involved team made the applied distribution. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of stenosis Type III or IV in the CVC group and in the SVP group. RESULTS: In total, 162 patients with venography were enrolled in this study. The prevalence of high-degree stenosis was significantly lower in the CVC group (7/89, 7.8%) than in the SVP group (15/73, 20.5%, p = 0.023). In the CVC group, venographies showed a lower median stenosis (33%) than in the SVP group (median 42%). CONCLUSIONS: The present study showed that the long-term patency of the subclavian vein is higher after CVC than after SVP for venous access in patients with CIED.

Projected incidence trends of need for long-term care in German men and women from 2011 to 2021.

Background: The German Federal Statistical Office routinely collects and reports aggregated numbers of people in need of long-term care (NLTC) stratified by age and sex. Age- and sex-specific prevalence of NLTC from 2011 to 2021 is reported as well. One estimation of the incidence rate of NLTC based on the age- and sex-specific prevalence exists that did not explore possible trends in incidence [based on MRR (mortality rate ratio)], which is important for an adequate projection of the future number of people with NLTC. Objective: We aim to explore possible trends in age-specific incidence of NLTC in German men and women from 2011 to 2021 based on different scenarios about excess mortality (in terms of MRR). Methods: The incidence of NLTC was calculated based on an illness-death model and a related partial differential equation based on data from the Federal Statistical Office. Estimation of annual percent change (APC) of the incidence rate was conducted in eight scenarios. Results: There are consistent indications for trends in incidence for men and women aged 50-79 years with APC in incidence rate of more than +9% per year (up to nearly 19%). For ages 80+ the APC is between +0.4% and +12.5%. In all scenarios, women had higher age-specific APCs than men. Conclusion: We performed the first analysis of APC in the age- and sex-specific incidence rate of NLTC in Germany and revealed an increasing trend in the incidences. With these findings, a future prevalence of NLTC can be estimated which may exceed current prognoses.