Estimating the contribution of mortality selection to the East-West German mortality convergence.

BACKGROUND: Before German reunification, old-age mortality was considerably higher in East Germany than West Germany but converged quickly afterward. Previous studies attributed this rapid catch-up to improved living conditions. We add to this discussion by quantifying for the first time the impact of mortality selection. METHODS: We use a gamma-Gompertz mortality model to estimate the contribution of selection to the East-West German mortality convergence before and after reunification. RESULTS: We find that, compared to the West, frailer East Germans died earlier due to deteriorating mortality conditions leading to converging mortality rates for women and men already over age 70 before 1990. After 1990, the selection of frailer individuals played only a minor role in closing the East-west German mortality gap. However, our study suggests that, after reunification, old-age mortality improved quickly because the more robust population in the East benefitted greatly from ameliorating external factors such as health care and better living standards. CONCLUSION: Our results from a natural experiment show that selection of frail individuals plays an important role in population-level mortality dynamics. In the case of the German reunification, East German old-age mortality already converged before 1990 because of stronger selection pressure.

The importance of regional availability of health care for old age survival - Findings from German reunification.

BACKGROUND: This article investigates the importance of regional health care availability for old age survival. Using German reunification as a natural experiment, we show that spatial variation in health care in East Germany considerably influenced the convergence of East German life expectancy toward West German levels. METHOD: We apply cause-deleted life tables and continuous mortality decomposition for the years 1982-2007 to show how reductions in circulatory mortality among the elderly affected the East German catch-up in life expectancy. RESULTS: Improvements in remaining life expectancy at older ages were first seen in towns with university hospitals, where state-of-the-art services became available first. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the modernization of the health care system had a substantial effect on old-age life expectancy and helped to significantly reduce circulatory diseases as the main cause of death in East Germany.

Analyzing the Impact of Family Structure Changes on Children's Stress Levels Using a Stress Biomarker.

Changes in family structure (e.g., parental separation or stepfamily formation) are associated with a deterioration in children's well-being. Most researchers have focused on the impact of such changes on children's educational and psychosocial outcomes, whereas the effects on children's biological processes have been studied less often. We analyze the effects of changes in family structure on children's stress levels using data from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents study (2003-2006 and 2014-2017). Our outcome variable is the biomarker c-reactive protein (CRP), which correlates with psychological distress and is collected from blood samples. Calculating first-difference estimators, we analyze whether children have higher CRP levels after changing to (1) single-parent families (n = 117) or (2) stepfamilies (n = 80). Our findings suggest that changing to a single-parent family significantly increases children's stress, whereas changing to a stepfamily does not. These observations are important because increased stress in childhood can negatively affect well-being later in life.

How many years of life did the fall of the Berlin Wall add? A projection of East German life expectancy.

BACKGROUND: In the two decades since reunification, East Germans have experienced a large increase in life expectancy and a convergence with the West German mortality level. This gain in life expectancy appears even more impressive if we assume a different scenario in which the Berlin Wall did not fall, and the old East Germany still existed. OBJECTIVE: This analysis takes into account that East German mortality would not have remained static without reunification. Thus, it shows how many years of life expectancy were actually added by the fall of the Berlin Wall. METHOD: The analysis shows the improvements for single age groups by projecting life expectancy based on mortality levels during the 1970s and 1980s using the Lee-Carter method. I use national-level data for both sexes for East Germany before reunification. RESULTS: I find that, without reunification, current life expectancy at birth among East Germans would be 4.0 years lower for females and 5.7 years lower for males. I also show that older East Germans were the main demographic beneficiaries of reunification. Female and male mortality improvements in the age groups above 60 contributed up to 80% to the actual gains in life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS: Had the Berlin Wall not fallen, East German mortality would not have remained static but improved at a far slower rate. Thus, this counterfactual approach shows for the first time how many years of life were actually gained by reunification and how much of these gains were attributable to mortality improvements among the elderly.