Spatially implicit plankton population models: Transient spatial variability.

Ocean plankton models are useful tools for understanding and predicting the behaviour of planktonic ecosystems. However, when the regions represented by the model grid cells are not well mixed, the population dynamics of grid cell averages may differ from those of smaller scales (such as the laboratory scale). Here, the 'mean field approximation' fails due to 'biological Reynolds fluxes' arising from nonlinearity in the fine-scale biological interactions and unresolved spatial variability. We investigate the domain-scale behaviour of two-component, 2D reaction-diffusion plankton models producing transient dynamics, with spatial variability resulting only from the initial conditions. Failure of the mean field approximation can be quite significant for sub grid-scale mixing rates applicable to practical ocean models. To improve the approximation of domain-scale dynamics, we investigate implicit spatial resolution methods such as spatial moment closure. For weak and moderate strengths of biological nonlinearity, spatial moment closure models generally yield significant improvements on the mean field approximation, especially at low mixing rates. However, they are less accurate given weaker transience and stronger nonlinearity. In the latter case, an alternative 'two-spike' approximation is accurate at low mixing rates. We argue that, after suitable extension, these methods may be useful for understanding and skillfully predicting the large-scale behaviour of marine ecosystems.

Probing the Rare Biosphere of the North-West Mediterranean Sea: An Experiment with High Sequencing Effort.

High-throughput sequencing (HTS) techniques have suggested the existence of a wealth of species with very low relative abundance: the rare biosphere. We attempted to exhaustively map this rare biosphere in two water samples by performing an exceptionally deep pyrosequencing analysis (~500,000 final reads per sample). Species data were derived by a 97% identity criterion and various parametric distributions were fitted to the observed counts. Using the best-fitting Sichel distribution we estimate a total species richness of 1,568-1,669 (95% Credible Interval) and 5,027-5,196 for surface and deep water samples respectively, implying that 84-89% of the total richness in those two samples was sequenced, and we predict that a quadrupling of the present sequencing effort would suffice to observe 90% of the total richness in both samples. Comparing the HTS results with a culturing approach we found that most of the cultured taxa were not obtained by HTS, despite the high sequencing effort. Culturing therefore remains a useful tool for uncovering marine bacterial diversity, in addition to its other uses for studying the ecology of marine bacteria.