Real-world nudging, pricing, and mobile physical activity coaching was insufficient to improve lifestyle behaviours and cardiometabolic health: the Supreme Nudge parallel cluster-randomised controlled supermarket trial.

BACKGROUND: Context-specific interventions may contribute to sustained behaviour change and improved health outcomes. We evaluated the real-world effects of supermarket nudging and pricing strategies and mobile physical activity coaching on diet quality, food-purchasing behaviour, walking behaviour, and cardiometabolic risk markers. METHODS: This parallel cluster-randomised controlled trial included supermarkets in socially disadvantaged neighbourhoods across the Netherlands with regular shoppers aged 30-80 years. Supermarkets were randomised to receive co-created nudging and pricing strategies promoting healthier purchasing (N = 6) or not (N = 6). Nudges targeted 9% of supermarket products and pricing strategies 3%. Subsequently, participants were individually randomised to a control (step counter app) or intervention arm (step counter and mobile coaching app) to promote walking. The primary outcome was the average change in diet quality (low (0) to high (150)) over all follow-up time points measured with a validated 40-item food frequency questionnaire at baseline and 3, 6, and 12 months. Secondary outcomes included healthier food purchasing (loyalty card-derived), daily step count (step counter app), cardiometabolic risk markers (lipid profile and HbA1c via finger prick, and waist circumference via measuring tape), and supermarket customer satisfaction (questionnaire-based: very unsatisfied (1) to very satisfied (7)), evaluated using linear mixed-models. Healthy supermarket sales (an exploratory outcome) were analysed via controlled interrupted time series analyses. RESULTS: Of 361 participants (162 intervention, 199 control), 73% were female, the average age was 58 (SD 11) years, and 42% were highly educated. Compared to the control arm, the intervention arm showed no statistically significant average changes over time in diet quality (ߠ- 1.1 (95% CI - 3.8 to 1.7)), percentage healthy purchasing (ß 0.7 ( - 2.7 to 4.0)), step count (ߠ- 124.0 (- 723.1 to 475.1), or any of the cardiometabolic risk markers. Participants in the intervention arm scored 0.3 points (0.1 to 0.5) higher on customer satisfaction on average over time. Supermarket-level sales were unaffected (ß - 0.0 (- 0.0 to 0.0)). CONCLUSIONS: Co-created nudging and pricing strategies that predominantly targeted healthy products via nudges were unable to increase healthier food purchases and intake nor improve cardiometabolic health. The mobile coaching intervention did not affect step count. Governmental policy measures are needed to ensure more impactful supermarket modifications that promote healthier purchases. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Dutch Trial Register ID NL7064, 30 May 2018, https://www.onderzoekmetmensen.nl/en/trial/20990.

A system dynamics approach to understand Dutch adolescents' sleep health using a causal loop diagram.

BACKGROUND: Healthy sleep is crucial for the physical and mental wellbeing of adolescents. However, many adolescents suffer from poor sleep health. Little is known about how to effectively improve adolescent sleep health as it is shaped by a complex adaptive system of many interacting factors. This study aims to provide insights into the system dynamics underlying adolescent sleep health and to identify impactful leverage points for sleep health promotion interventions. METHODS: Three rounds of single-actor workshops, applying Group Model Building techniques, were held with adolescents (n = 23, 12-15 years), parents (n = 14) and relevant professionals (n = 26). The workshops resulted in a multi-actor Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) visualizing the system dynamics underlying adolescent sleep health. This CLD was supplemented with evidence from the literature. Subsystems, feedback loops and underlying causal mechanisms were identified to understand overarching system dynamics. Potential leverage points for action were identified applying the Action Scales Model (ASM). RESULTS: The resulting CLD comprised six subsystems around the following themes: (1) School environment; (2) Mental wellbeing; (3) Digital environment; (4) Family & Home environment; (5) Health behaviors & Leisure activities; (6) Personal system. Within and between these subsystems, 16 reinforcing and 7 balancing feedback loops were identified. Approximately 60 potential leverage points on different levels of the system were identified as well. CONCLUSIONS: The multi-actor CLD and identified system dynamics illustrate the complexity of adolescent sleep health and supports the need for developing a coherent package of activities targeting different leverage points at all system levels to induce system change.

Development of an action programme tackling obesity-related behaviours in adolescents: a participatory system dynamics approach.

System dynamics approaches are increasingly addressing the complexity of public health problems such as childhood overweight and obesity. These approaches often use system mapping methods, such as the construction of causal loop diagrams, to gain an understanding of the system of interest. However, there is limited practical guidance on how such a system understanding can inform the development of an action programme that can facilitate systems changes. The Lifestyle Innovations Based on Youth Knowledge and Experience (LIKE) programme combines system dynamics and participatory action research to improve obesity-related behaviours, including diet, physical activity, sleep and sedentary behaviour, in 10-14-year-old adolescents in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. This paper illustrates how we used a previously obtained understanding of the system of obesity-related behaviours in adolescents to develop an action programme to facilitate systems changes. A team of evaluation researchers guided interdisciplinary action-groups throughout the process of identifying mechanisms, applying the Intervention Level Framework to identify leverage points and arriving at action ideas with aligning theories of change. The LIKE action programme consisted of 8 mechanisms, 9 leverage points and 14 action ideas which targeted the system's structure and function within multiple subsystems. This illustrates the feasibility of developing actions targeting higher system levels within the confines of a research project timeframe when sufficient and dedicated effort in this process is invested. Furthermore, the system dynamics action programme presented in this study contributes towards the development and implementation of public health programmes that aim to facilitate systems changes in practice.

The ENCOMPASS framework: a practical guide for the evaluation of public health programmes in complex adaptive systems.

BACKGROUND: Systems thinking embraces the complexity of public health problems, including childhood overweight and obesity. It aids in understanding how factors are interrelated, and it can be targeted to produce favourable changes in a system. There is a growing call for systems approaches in public health research, yet limited practical guidance is available on how to evaluate public health programmes within complex adaptive systems. The aim of this paper is to present an evaluation framework that supports researchers in designing systems evaluations in a comprehensive and practical way. METHODS: We searched the literature for existing public health systems evaluation studies. Key characteristics on how to conduct a systems evaluation were extracted and compared across studies. Next, we overlaid the identified characteristics to the context of the Lifestyle Innovations Based on Youth Knowledge and Experience (LIKE) programme evaluation and analyzed which characteristics were essential to carry out the LIKE evaluation. This resulted in the Evaluation of Programmes in Complex Adaptive Systems (ENCOMPASS) framework. RESULTS: The ENCOMPASS framework includes five iterative stages: (1) adopting a system dynamics perspective on the overall evaluation design; (2) defining the system boundaries; (3) understanding the pre-existing system to inform system changes; (4) monitoring dynamic programme output at different system levels; and (5) measuring programme outcome and impact in terms of system changes. CONCLUSIONS: The value of ENCOMPASS lies in the integration of key characteristics from existing systems evaluation studies, as well as in its practical, applied focus. It can be employed in evaluating public health programmes in complex adaptive systems. Furthermore, ENCOMPASS provides guidance for the entire evaluation process, all the way from understanding the system to developing actions to change it and to measuring system changes. By the nature of systems thinking, the ENCOMPASS framework will likely evolve further over time, as the field expands with more completed studies.

The effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax and a nutrient profiling tax based on Nutri-Score on consumer food purchases in a virtual supermarket: a randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the effects of a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax and a nutrient profiling tax on consumer food purchases in a virtual supermarket. DESIGN: A randomised controlled trial was conducted with a control condition with regular food prices (n 152), an SSB tax condition (n 130) and a nutrient profiling tax condition based on Nutri-Score (n 112). Participants completed a weekly grocery shop for their household. Primary outcome measures were SSB purchases (ordinal variable) and the overall healthiness of the total shopping basket (proportion of total unit food items classified as healthy). The secondary outcome measure was the energy (kcal) content of the total shopping basket. Data were analysed using regression analyses. SETTING: Three-dimensional virtual supermarket. PARTICIPANTS: Dutch adults aged ≥18 years are being responsible for grocery shopping in their household (n 394). RESULTS: The SSB tax (OR = 1·62, (95 % CI 1·03, 2·54)) and the nutrient profiling tax (OR = 1·88, (95 %CI 1·17, 3·02)) increased the likelihood of being in a lower-level category of SSB purchases. The overall healthiness of the total shopping basket was higher (+2·7 percent point, (95 % CI 0·1, 5·3)), and the energy content was lower (-3301 kcal, (95 % CI -6425, -177)) for participants in the nutrient profiling tax condition than for those in the control condition. The SSB tax did not affect the overall healthiness and energy content of the total shopping basket (P > 0·05). CONCLUSIONS: A nutrient profiling tax targeting a wide range of foods and beverages with a low nutritional quality seems to have larger beneficial effects on consumer food purchases than taxation of SSB alone.

Testing front-of-package warnings to discourage red meat consumption: a randomized experiment with US meat consumers.

BACKGROUND: Reducing red meat is a strategy to improve public health and mitigate climate change in the United States and other high-income countries. Policies requiring warnings on the front of red meat packages are a promising intervention to shift consumers towards healthier and more sustainable food choices. We aimed to explore participants' reactions to health and environmental warning messages about red meat. METHODS: Between June and July 2020, we recruited a national convenience sample of US red meat consumers (n = 1,235; mean age 44 years) for an online survey. Participants were randomly assigned to one of four label conditions: no-label control, health warning, environment warning, and combined health and environment warning (both warnings shown side-by-side). Participants viewed three types of burritos (red meat [steak], chicken, and vegetarian) and selected their preferred item (primary outcome), the item they perceived to be most damaging to health, and the item they perceived to be most damaging to the environment (secondary outcomes). Participants then viewed their assigned warning on a series of other red meat products (no-label control participants were randomly re-assigned to one of the warning conditions) and rated the warnings on perceived message effectiveness, believability, negative emotions, perceived risk, attention, and learning something new. Finally, participants reported their intentions to reduce red meat consumption. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in selection of the steak burrito between label conditions or in selection of the item most damaging to the environment. Those exposed to the health warning were more likely to select the steak burrito as most damaging to health compared to those exposed to other label conditions (health 73 %, combined 64 %, environment 60 %, no-label control 63 %, p < 0.05). The combined and health warnings elicited higher perceived message effectiveness ratings than the environment warning (combined mean 2.91, health 2.84, environment 2.61, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Warnings did not have a significant effect on item preference in the choice experiment. However, combined and health warnings performed better than the environment warning across a variety of warning label reaction measures. More research will be needed to understand whether warnings elicit behavioral change in real-world environments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Analyses and hypotheses were preregistered on https://aspredicted.org/ph7mb.pdf on 23 June 2020.

Dynamics of the complex food environment underlying dietary intake in low-income groups: a systems map of associations extracted from a systematic umbrella literature review.

BACKGROUND: Inequalities in obesity pertain in part to differences in dietary intake in different socioeconomic groups. Examining the economic, social, physical and political food environment of low-income groups as a complex adaptive system - i.e. a system of multiple, interconnected factors exerting non-linear influence on an outcome, can enhance the development and assessment of effective policies and interventions by honouring the complexity of lived reality. We aimed to develop and apply novel causal loop diagramming methods in order to construct an evidence-based map of the underlying system of environmental factors that drives dietary intake in low-income groups. METHODS: A systematic umbrella review was conducted on literature examining determinants of dietary intake and food environments in low-income youths and adults in high/upper-middle income countries. Information on the determinants and associations between determinants was extracted from reviews of quantitative and qualitative studies. Determinants were organised using the Determinants of Nutrition and Eating (DONE) framework. Associations were synthesised into causal loop diagrams that were subsequently used to interpret the dynamics underlying the food environment and dietary intake. The map was reviewed by an expert panel and systems-based analysis identified the system paradigm, structure, feedback loops and goals. RESULTS: Findings from forty-three reviews and expert consensus were synthesised in an evidence-based map of the complex adaptive system underlying the food environment influencing dietary intake in low-income groups. The system was interpreted as operating within a supply-and-demand, economic paradigm. Five sub-systems ('geographical accessibility', 'household finances', 'household resources', 'individual influences', 'social and cultural influences') were presented as causal loop diagrams comprising 60 variables, conveying goals which undermine healthy dietary intake. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings reveal how poor dietary intake in low-income groups can be presented as an emergent property of a complex adaptive system that sustains a food environment that increases the accessibility, availability, affordability and acceptability of unhealthy foods. In order to reshape system dynamics driving unhealthy food environments, simultaneous, diverse and innovative strategies are needed to facilitate longer-term management of household finances and socially-oriented practices around healthy food production, supply and intake. Ultimately, such strategies must be supported by a system paradigm which prioritises health.

Impact of taxes on purchases of close substitute foods: analysis of cross-price elasticities using data from a randomized experiment.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of health-related food taxes on substitution and complementary purchases within food groups, including from unhealthier to healthier alternatives and between brands. METHODS: We used data from a virtual supermarket experiment with data from 4,259 shopping events linked to varying price sets. Substitution or complementary effects within six frequently purchased food categories were analyzed. Products' own- and cross-price elasticities were analyzed using Almost Ideal Demand System models. RESULTS: Overall, 37.5% of cross-price elasticities were significant (p < 0.05) and included values greater than 0.10. Supplementary and complementary effects were particularly found in the dairy, meats and snacks categories. For example, a 1% increase in the price of high saturated fat dairy was associated with a 0.18% (SE 0.06%) increase in purchases of low saturated fat dairy. For name- and home-brand products, significant substitution effects were found in 50% (n = 3) of cases, but only in one case this was above the 0.10 threshold. CONCLUSIONS/POLICY IMPLICATIONS: Given the relatively low own-price elasticities and the limited substitution and complementary effects, relatively high taxes are needed to substantively increase healthy food purchases at the population level. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study included secondary analyses; the original trial was registered in the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12616000122459 .

Are nudging and pricing strategies on food purchasing behaviors equally effective for all? Secondary analyses from the Supreme Nudge virtual supermarket study.

Nudging and pricing strategies are effective in promoting healthier purchases. However, whether the effects are equal across individuals with different personal characteristics is unknown. This exploratory study aimed to examine differential effects of nudging and pricing strategies on food purchases across individuals' levels of impulsivity, price sensitivity, decision-making styles, and food choice motives. Data from a virtual supermarket experiment where participants were exposed to five study conditions (control, nudging, pricing, salient pricing, and salient pricing with nudging) was used. Participants completed questionnaires assessing their impulsivity, price sensitivity, decision-making styles, and food choice motives. The outcome was the percentage of healthy food purchases. Effect modification was analyzed by adding interaction terms to the statistical models and post-hoc probing was conducted for statistically significant interaction terms. We used data from 400 Dutch adult participants (61.3% female, median age 30.0 years (IQR 24.0)). The effects of the nudging and pricing conditions on healthy food purchases were not modified by impulsivity, price sensitivity, decision-making styles, and the food choice motives 'health' and 'price'. Only the interactions of the food choice motive 'natural content of foods' x pricing (B = -1.02, 90%CI = -2.04; -0.01), the food choice motive 'weight control' x nudging (B = -2.15, 90%CI = -3.34; -0.95), and 'weight control' x pricing (B = -1.87, 90%CI = -3.11; -0.62) were statistically significant. Post-hoc probing indicated that nudging and/or pricing strategies were more effective in individuals who gave lower priority to these food choice motives. The effects of nudging and pricing strategies on increasing healthy food purchasing behaviors, at least in a virtual environment, do not seem to be influenced by personal characteristics and may therefore be implemented as general health promoting strategies.

The effects of nudging and pricing on healthy food purchasing behavior in a virtual supermarket setting: a randomized experiment.

BACKGROUND: Evidence on what strategies - or combination of strategies - are most effective and equitable in promoting healthier diets is needed. This study examined the efficacy of nudging and pricing strategies on increasing healthy food purchases and the potential differential effect by socio-economic position (SEP) among Dutch adults in a virtual supermarket. METHODS: A randomized study design was conducted within a virtual supermarket (SN VirtuMart). Participants were exposed to five within-subject study conditions (control, nudging, pricing, price salience and price salience with nudging) and randomized to one of three between-subject study arms (a 25% price increase on unhealthy products, a 25% discount on healthy products, or a 25% price increase and discount). In total, 455 participants of low and high SEP (using either education or income as proxy) were randomized to conduct their weekly shopping in a virtual supermarket for five consecutive weeks. The primary outcome included the percentage of healthy purchases. Data were analyzed using linear mixed models. RESULTS: In total, 346 (76%) adults completed all five shops within the SN VirtuMart. Median age was 32.5, 49.2% had high education and 32.8% had high income. Out of the 12 conditions, four conditions were statistically significantly different from the control condition. Nudging and non-salient pricing strategies alone did not statistically significantly increase healthy food purchases, whereas a combination of salient price increases and discounts led to an increase in the percentage of healthy food purchases (B 4.5, 95%CI 2.6; 6.4). Combining salient pricing and nudging strategies led to increases in the percentage of healthy products in all three pricing arms, with largest effects found in the combined price increase and discount arm (B = 4.0, 95%CI = 2.0; 6.0). Effects were not modified by SEP. CONCLUSIONS: Combining health-related price increases and discounts and combining these salient pricing strategies with nudges in a supermarket setting seems to stimulate healthy food purchases for both low and high SEP populations. However, further research in real-world settings is needed. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This randomized trial ( NTR7293 ) was registered in the Dutch trial registry ( www.trialregister.nl ).

To what extent do dietary costs explain socio-economic differences in dietary behavior?

BACKGROUND: Low socio-economic position is associated with consumption of lower quality diets, which may be partly explained by the cost of healthier diets. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the mediating role of dietary costs in the association between educational level and diet quality. METHODS: We used cross-sectional data from Dutch older adults (N = 9399) in the EPIC-NL cohort. Participants provided information about their own and their partners' highest attained educational level (as proxy for socio-economic position). Dietary behavior was assessed using a food frequency questionnaire from which we derived two diet-quality scores, including the Dutch Healthy Diet index 2015 (DHD15-index) and the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet. Dietary cost estimates were based on food price data from food stores, and linked to reported consumption of food items. Multiple regression analyses and bootstrapping were used examine the mediating role of dietary cost in the association between educational level and diet quality. RESULTS: Mean age of participants was 70 (SD: 10) years and 77% were women. Dietary costs significantly mediated the association between educational level and diet quality, except for high versus middle individual educational level and the DHD15-index. Depending on the dietary and educational indicator, dietary costs explained between 2 and 7% of the association between educational level and diet quality. Furthermore, associations were found to be modified by sex and age. For the DHD15-index, mediation effects were only present in females and adults older than 65 years, and for the DASH diet mediation effects were only present in females and strongest amongst adults older than 65 years compared to adults younger than 65 years. CONCLUSION: Dietary costs seems to play a modest role in explaining educational differences in diet quality in an older Dutch population. Further research is needed to investigate which other factors may explain SEP differences in diet quality.

Reducing cardiometabolic risk in adults with a low socioeconomic position: protocol of the Supreme Nudge parallel cluster-randomised controlled supermarket trial.

BACKGROUND: Unhealthy lifestyle behaviours such as unhealthy dietary intake and insufficient physical activity (PA) tend to cluster in adults with a low socioeconomic position (SEP), putting them at high cardiometabolic disease risk. Educational approaches aiming to improve lifestyle behaviours show limited effect in this population. Using environmental and context-specific interventions may create opportunities for sustainable behaviour change. In this study protocol, we describe the design of a real-life supermarket trial combining nudging, pricing and a mobile PA app with the aim to improve lifestyle behaviours and lower cardiometabolic disease risk in adults with a low SEP. METHODS: The Supreme Nudge trial includes nudging and pricing strategies cluster-randomised on the supermarket level, with: i) control group receiving no intervention; ii) group 1 receiving healthy food nudges (e.g., product placement or promotion); iii) group 2 receiving nudges and pricing strategies (taxing of unhealthy foods and subsidizing healthy foods). In collaboration with a Dutch supermarket chain we will select nine stores located in low SEP neighbourhoods, with the nearest competitor store at > 1 km distance and managed by a committed store manager. Across the clusters, a personalized mobile coaching app targeting walking behaviour will be randomised at the individual level, with: i) control group; ii) a group receiving the mobile PA app. All participants (target n = 1485) should be Dutch-speaking, aged 45-75 years with a low SEP and purchase more than half of their household grocery shopping at the selected supermarkets. Participants will be recruited via advertisements and mail-invitations followed by community-outreach methods. Primary outcomes are changes in systolic blood pressure, LDL-cholesterol, HbA1c and dietary intake after 12 months follow-up. Secondary outcomes are changes in diastolic blood pressure, blood lipid markers, waist circumference, steps per day, and behavioural factors including healthy food purchasing, food decision style, social cognitive factors related to nudges and to walking behaviours and customer satisfaction after 12 months follow-up. The trial will be reflexively monitored to support current and future implementation. DISCUSSION: The findings can guide future research and public health policies on reducing lifestyle-related health inequalities, and contribute to a supermarket-based health promotion intervention implementation roadmap. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Dutch Trial Register ID NL7064, 30th of May, 2018.

A systematic review, and meta-analysis, examining the prevalence of price promotions on foods and whether they are more likely to be found on less-healthy foods.

OBJECTIVE: There are concerns that price promotions encourage unhealthy dietary choices. This review aims to answer the following research questions (RQ1) what is the prevalence of price promotions on foods in high-income settings, and (RQ2) are price promotions more likely to be found on unhealthy foods? DESIGN: Systematic review of articles published in English, in peer-review journals, after 1 January 2000. SETTING: Included studies measured the prevalence of price promotions (i.e. percentage of foods carrying a price promotion out of the total number of foods available to purchase) in retail settings, in upper-mid to high-income countries. PARTICIPANTS: 'Price promotion' was defined as a consumer-facing temporary price reduction or discount available to all customers. The control group/comparator was the equivalent products without promotions. The primary outcome for this review was the prevalence of price promotions, and the secondary outcome was the difference between the proportions of price promotions on healthy and unhealthy foods. RESULTS: Nine studies (239 344 observations) were included for the meta-analysis for RQ1, the prevalence of price promotions ranged from 6 % (95 % CI 2 %, 15 %) for energy-dense nutrient-poor foods to 15 % (95 % CI 9 %, 25 %) for cereals, grains, breads and other starchy carbohydrates. However, the I-squared statistic was 99 % suggesting a very high level of heterogeneity. Four studies were included for the analysis of RQ2, of which two supported the hypothesis that price promotions were more likely to be found on unhealthy foods. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of price promotions is very context specific, and any proposed regulations should be supported by studies conducted within the proposed setting(s).

Improving cardiometabolic health through nudging dietary behaviours and physical activity in low SES adults: design of the Supreme Nudge project.

BACKGROUND: Initiating and maintaining a healthy lifestyle -including healthy eating and sufficient physical activity- is key for cardiometabolic health. A health-promoting environment can facilitate a healthy lifestyle, and may be especially helpful to reach individuals with a lower socio-economic status (SES). In the Supreme Nudge project, we will study the effects of pricing and nudging strategies in the supermarket - one of the most important point-of-choice settings for food choices - and of a context-specific mobile physical activity promotion app. This paper describes the stepwise and theory-based design of Supreme Nudge, which aims to develop, implement and evaluate environmental changes for a sustained impact on lifestyle behaviours and cardiometabolic health in low SES adults. METHODS: Supreme Nudge uses a multi-disciplinary and mixed methods approach, integrating participatory action research, qualitative interviews, experimental pilot studies, and a randomized controlled trial in a real-life (supermarket) setting. First, we will identify the needs, characteristics and preferences of the target group as well as of the participating supermarket chain. Second, we will conduct a series of pilot studies to test novel, promising and feasible intervention components. Third, a final selection of intervention components will be implemented in a full-scale randomised controlled supermarket trial. Approximately 1000 low SES adults will be recruited across 8-12 supermarkets and randomised at supermarket level to receive 1) no intervention (control); 2) environmental nudges such as food product placement or promotion; 3) nudges and a tailored physical activity app that provides time- and context specific feedback; 4) pricing interventions, nudges, and the physical activity app. The effects on dietary behaviours and physical activity will be evaluated at 3, 6 and 12 months, and on cardiometabolic health at 6 and 12 months. Finally, we will evaluate the Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation and Maintenance (RE-AIM) of the intervention, and we will use insights from System Innovation and Transition Management theories to define the best strategies for implementation and upscaling beyond the study period. DISCUSSION: The Supreme Nudge project is likely to generate thorough evidence relevant for policy and practice on the effects of a mixed method and multi-disciplinary intervention targeting dietary behaviours and physical activity. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The real-life trial has been registered on 30 May 2018, NTR7302 .

Using a UK Virtual Supermarket to Examine Purchasing Behavior Across Different Income Groups in the United Kingdom: Development and Feasibility Study.

BACKGROUND: The majority of food in the United Kingdom is purchased in supermarkets, and therefore, supermarket interventions provide an opportunity to improve diets. Randomized controlled trials are costly, time-consuming, and difficult to conduct in real stores. Alternative approaches of assessing the impact of supermarket interventions on food purchases are needed, especially with respect to assessing differential impacts on population subgroups. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to assess the feasibility of using the United Kingdom Virtual Supermarket (UKVS), a three-dimensional (3D) computer simulation of a supermarket, to measure food purchasing behavior across income groups. METHODS: Participants (primary household shoppers in the United Kingdom with computer access) were asked to conduct two shopping tasks using the UKVS and complete questionnaires on demographics, food purchasing habits, and feedback on the UKVS software. Data on recruitment method and rate, completion of study procedure, purchases, and feedback on usability were collected to inform future trial protocols. RESULTS: A total of 98 participants were recruited, and 46 (47%) fully completed the study procedure. Low-income participants were less likely to complete the study (P=.02). Most participants found the UKVS easy to use (38/46, 83%) and reported that UKVS purchases resembled their usual purchases (41/46, 89%). CONCLUSIONS: The UKVS is likely to be a useful tool to examine the effects of nutrition interventions using randomized controlled designs. Feedback was positive from participants who completed the study and did not differ by income group. However, retention was low and needs to be addressed in future studies. This study provides purchasing data to establish sample size requirements for full trials using the UKVS.

Ultra-processed foods have the worst nutrient profile, yet they are the most available packaged products in a sample of New Zealand supermarkets.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the availability of packaged food products in New Zealand supermarkets by level of industrial processing, nutrient profiling score (NPSC), price (energy, unit and serving costs) and brand variety. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of cross-sectional survey data on packaged supermarket food and non-alcoholic beverages. Products were classified according to level of industrial processing (minimally, culinary and ultra-processed) and their NPSC. SETTING: Packaged foods available in four major supermarkets in Auckland, New Zealand. SUBJECTS: Packaged supermarket food products for the years 2011 and 2013. RESULTS: The majority (84% in 2011 and 83% in 2013) of packaged foods were classified as ultra-processed. A significant positive association was found between the level of industrial processing and NPSC, i.e., ultra-processed foods had a worse nutrient profile (NPSC=11.63) than culinary processed foods (NPSC=7.95), which in turn had a worse nutrient profile than minimally processed foods (NPSC=3.27), P<0.001. No clear associations were observed between the three price measures and level of processing. The study observed many variations of virtually the same product. The ten largest food manufacturers produced 35% of all packaged foods available. CONCLUSIONS: In New Zealand supermarkets, ultra-processed foods comprise the largest proportion of packaged foods and are less healthy than less processed foods. The lack of significant price difference between ultra- and less processed foods suggests ultra-processed foods might provide time-poor consumers with more value for money. These findings highlight the need to improve the supermarket food supply by reducing numbers of ultra-processed foods and by reformulating products to improve their nutritional profile.

Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study).

BACKGROUND: There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price) to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. METHODS/DESIGN: The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM) study aims to: I) derive accurate and precise food PE values; II) quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III) model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts) are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods) to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. DISCUSSION: The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential health and disease impacts of various food pricing policy options. Findings will inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12616000122459 (registered 3 February 2016).