Accurate estimates of dynamical statistics using memory.

Many chemical reactions and molecular processes occur on time scales that are significantly longer than those accessible by direct simulations. One successful approach to estimating dynamical statistics for such processes is to use many short time series of observations of the system to construct a Markov state model, which approximates the dynamics of the system as memoryless transitions between a set of discrete states. The dynamical Galerkin approximation (DGA) is a closely related framework for estimating dynamical statistics, such as committors and mean first passage times, by approximating solutions to their equations with a projection onto a basis. Because the projected dynamics are generally not memoryless, the Markov approximation can result in significant systematic errors. Inspired by quasi-Markov state models, which employ the generalized master equation to encode memory resulting from the projection, we reformulate DGA to account for memory and analyze its performance on two systems: a two-dimensional triple well and the AIB9 peptide. We demonstrate that our method is robust to the choice of basis and can decrease the time series length required to obtain accurate kinetics by an order of magnitude.

Inexact iterative numerical linear algebra for neural network-based spectral estimation and rare-event prediction.

Understanding dynamics in complex systems is challenging because there are many degrees of freedom, and those that are most important for describing events of interest are often not obvious. The leading eigenfunctions of the transition operator are useful for visualization, and they can provide an efficient basis for computing statistics, such as the likelihood and average time of events (predictions). Here, we develop inexact iterative linear algebra methods for computing these eigenfunctions (spectral estimation) and making predictions from a dataset of short trajectories sampled at finite intervals. We demonstrate the methods on a low-dimensional model that facilitates visualization and a high-dimensional model of a biomolecular system. Implications for the prediction problem in reinforcement learning are discussed.

Computing transition path theory quantities with trajectory stratification.

Transition path theory computes statistics from ensembles of reactive trajectories. A common strategy for sampling reactive trajectories is to control the branching and pruning of trajectories so as to enhance the sampling of low probability segments. However, it can be challenging to apply transition path theory to data from such methods because determining whether configurations and trajectory segments are part of reactive trajectories requires looking backward and forward in time. Here, we show how this issue can be overcome efficiently by introducing simple data structures. We illustrate the approach in the context of nonequilibrium umbrella sampling, but the strategy is general and can be used to obtain transition path theory statistics from other methods that sample segments of unbiased trajectories.

Augmented transition path theory for sequences of events.

Transition path theory provides a statistical description of the dynamics of a reaction in terms of local spatial quantities. In its original formulation, it is limited to reactions that consist of trajectories flowing from a reactant set A to a product set B. We extend the basic concepts and principles of transition path theory to reactions in which trajectories exhibit a specified sequence of events and illustrate the utility of this generalization on examples.

Galerkin approximation of dynamical quantities using trajectory data.

Understanding chemical mechanisms requires estimating dynamical statistics such as expected hitting times, reaction rates, and committors. Here, we present a general framework for calculating these dynamical quantities by approximating boundary value problems using dynamical operators with a Galerkin expansion. A specific choice of basis set in the expansion corresponds to the estimation of dynamical quantities using a Markov state model. More generally, the boundary conditions impose restrictions on the choice of basis sets. We demonstrate how an alternative basis can be constructed using ideas from diffusion maps. In our numerical experiments, this basis gives results of comparable or better accuracy to Markov state models. Additionally, we show that delay embedding can reduce the information lost when projecting the system's dynamics for model construction; this improves estimates of dynamical statistics considerably over the standard practice of increasing the lag time.

Practical rare event sampling for extreme mesoscale weather.

Extreme mesoscale weather, including tropical cyclones, squall lines, and floods, can be enormously damaging and yet challenging to simulate; hence, there is a pressing need for more efficient simulation strategies. Here, we present a new rare event sampling algorithm called quantile diffusion Monte Carlo (quantile DMC). Quantile DMC is a simple-to-use algorithm that can sample extreme tail behavior for a wide class of processes. We demonstrate the advantages of quantile DMC compared to other sampling methods and discuss practical aspects of implementing quantile DMC. To test the feasibility of quantile DMC for extreme mesoscale weather, we sample extremely intense realizations of two historical tropical cyclones, 2010 Hurricane Earl and 2015 Hurricane Joaquin. Our results demonstrate quantile DMC's potential to provide low-variance extreme weather statistics while highlighting the work that is necessary for quantile DMC to attain greater efficiency in future applications.

Eigenvector method for umbrella sampling enables error analysis.

Umbrella sampling efficiently yields equilibrium averages that depend on exploring rare states of a model by biasing simulations to windows of coordinate values and then combining the resulting data with physical weighting. Here, we introduce a mathematical framework that casts the step of combining the data as an eigenproblem. The advantage to this approach is that it facilitates error analysis. We discuss how the error scales with the number of windows. Then, we derive a central limit theorem for averages that are obtained from umbrella sampling. The central limit theorem suggests an estimator of the error contributions from individual windows, and we develop a simple and computationally inexpensive procedure for implementing it. We demonstrate this estimator for simulations of the alanine dipeptide and show that it emphasizes low free energy pathways between stable states in comparison to existing approaches for assessing error contributions. Our work suggests the possibility of using the estimator and, more generally, the eigenvector method for umbrella sampling to guide adaptation of the simulation parameters to accelerate convergence.

Nucleotide regulation of the structure and dynamics of G-actin.

Actin, a highly conserved cytoskeletal protein found in all eukaryotic cells, facilitates cell motility and membrane remodeling via a directional polymerization cycle referred to as treadmilling. The nucleotide bound at the core of each actin subunit regulates this process. Although the biochemical kinetics of treadmilling has been well characterized, the atomistic details of how the nucleotide affects polymerization remain to be definitively determined. There is increasing evidence that the nucleotide regulation (and other characteristics) of actin cannot be fully described from the minimum energy structure, but rather depends on a dynamic equilibrium between conformations. In this work we explore the conformational mobility of the actin monomer (G-actin) in a coarse-grained subspace using umbrella sampling to bias all-atom molecular-dynamics simulations along the variables of interest. The results reveal that ADP-bound actin subunits are more conformationally mobile than ATP-bound subunits. We used a multiscale analysis method involving coarse-grained and atomistic representations of these simulations to characterize how the nucleotide affects the low-energy states of these systems. The interface between subdomains SD2-SD4, which is important for polymerization, is stabilized in an actin filament-like (F-actin) conformation in ATP-bound G-actin. Additionally, the nucleotide modulates the conformation of the SD1-SD3 interface, a region involved in the binding of several actin-binding proteins.

Using multiscale preconditioning to accelerate the convergence of iterative molecular calculations.

Iterative procedures for optimizing properties of molecular models often converge slowly owing to the computational cost of accurately representing features of interest. Here, we introduce a preconditioning scheme that allows one to use a less expensive model to guide exploration of the energy landscape of a more expensive model and thus speed the discovery of locally stable states of the latter. We illustrate our approach in the contexts of energy minimization and the string method for finding transition pathways. The relation of the method to other multilevel simulation techniques and possible extensions are discussed.

On the statistical equivalence of restrained-ensemble simulations with the maximum entropy method.

An issue of general interest in computer simulations is to incorporate information from experiments into a structural model. An important caveat in pursuing this goal is to avoid corrupting the resulting model with spurious and arbitrary biases. While the problem of biasing thermodynamic ensembles can be formulated rigorously using the maximum entropy method introduced by Jaynes, the approach can be cumbersome in practical applications with the need to determine multiple unknown coefficients iteratively. A popular alternative strategy to incorporate the information from experiments is to rely on restrained-ensemble molecular dynamics simulations. However, the fundamental validity of this computational strategy remains in question. Here, it is demonstrated that the statistical distribution produced by restrained-ensemble simulations is formally consistent with the maximum entropy method of Jaynes. This clarifies the underlying conditions under which restrained-ensemble simulations will yield results that are consistent with the maximum entropy method.

Extending molecular simulation time scales: Parallel in time integrations for high-level quantum chemistry and complex force representations.

Parallel in time simulation algorithms are presented and applied to conventional molecular dynamics (MD) and ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) models of realistic complexity. Assuming that a forward time integrator, f (e.g., Verlet algorithm), is available to propagate the system from time ti (trajectory positions and velocities xi = (ri, vi)) to time ti + 1 (xi + 1) by xi + 1 = fi(xi), the dynamics problem spanning an interval from t0[ellipsis (horizontal)]tM can be transformed into a root finding problem, F(X) = [xi - f(x(i - 1)]i = 1, M = 0, for the trajectory variables. The root finding problem is solved using a variety of root finding techniques, including quasi-Newton and preconditioned quasi-Newton schemes that are all unconditionally convergent. The algorithms are parallelized by assigning a processor to each time-step entry in the columns of F(X). The relation of this approach to other recently proposed parallel in time methods is discussed, and the effectiveness of various approaches to solving the root finding problem is tested. We demonstrate that more efficient dynamical models based on simplified interactions or coarsening time-steps provide preconditioners for the root finding problem. However, for MD and AIMD simulations, such preconditioners are not required to obtain reasonable convergence and their cost must be considered in the performance of the algorithm. The parallel in time algorithms developed are tested by applying them to MD and AIMD simulations of size and complexity similar to those encountered in present day applications. These include a 1000 Si atom MD simulation using Stillinger-Weber potentials, and a HCl + 4H2O AIMD simulation at the MP2 level. The maximum speedup (serial execution/timeparallel execution time) obtained by parallelizing the Stillinger-Weber MD simulation was nearly 3.0. For the AIMD MP2 simulations, the algorithms achieved speedups of up to 14.3. The parallel in time algorithms can be implemented in a distributed computing environment using very slow transmission control protocol/Internet protocol networks. Scripts written in Python that make calls to a precompiled quantum chemistry package (NWChem) are demonstrated to provide an actual speedup of 8.2 for a 2.5 ps AIMD simulation of HCl + 4H2O at the MP2/6-31G* level. Implemented in this way these algorithms can be used for long time high-level AIMD simulations at a modest cost using machines connected by very slow networks such as WiFi, or in different time zones connected by the Internet. The algorithms can also be used with programs that are already parallel. Using these algorithms, we are able to reduce the cost of a MP2/6-311++G(2d,2p) simulation that had reached its maximum possible speedup in the parallelization of the electronic structure calculation from 32 s/time step to 6.9 s/time step.

Minimizing memory as an objective for coarse-graining.

Coarse-graining a molecular model is the process of integrating over degrees of freedom to obtain a reduced representation. This process typically involves two separate but related steps, selection of the coordinates comprising the reduced system and modeling their interactions. Both the coordinate selection and the modeling procedure present challenges. Here, we focus on the former. Typically, one seeks to integrate over the fast degrees of freedom and retain the slow degrees of freedom. Failure to separate timescales results in memory. With this motivation, we introduce a heuristic measure of memory and show that it can be used to compare competing coordinate selections for a given modeling procedure. We numerically explore the utility of this heuristic for three systems of increasing complexity. The first example is a four-particle linear model, which is exactly solvable. The second example is a sixteen-particle nonlinear model; this system has interactions that are characteristic of molecular force fields but is still sufficiently simple to permit exhaustive numerical treatment. The third example is an atomic-resolution representation of a protein, the class of models most often treated by relevant coarse-graining approaches; we specifically study an actin monomer. In all three cases, we find that the heuristic suggests coordinate selections that are physically intuitive and reflect molecular structure. The memory heuristic can thus serve as an objective codification of expert knowledge and a guide to sites within a model that requires further attention.

Predicting rare events using neural networks and short-trajectory data.

Estimating the likelihood, timing, and nature of events is a major goal of modeling stochastic dynamical systems. When the event is rare in comparison with the timescales of simulation and/or measurement needed to resolve the elemental dynamics, accurate prediction from direct observations becomes challenging. In such cases a more effective approach is to cast statistics of interest as solutions to Feynman-Kac equations (partial differential equations). Here, we develop an approach to solve Feynman-Kac equations by training neural networks on short-trajectory data. Our approach is based on a Markov approximation but otherwise avoids assumptions about the underlying model and dynamics. This makes it applicable to treating complex computational models and observational data. We illustrate the advantages of our method using a low-dimensional model that facilitates visualization, and this analysis motivates an adaptive sampling strategy that allows on-the-fly identification of and addition of data to regions important for predicting the statistics of interest. Finally, we demonstrate that we can compute accurate statistics for a 75-dimensional model of sudden stratospheric warming. This system provides a stringent test bed for our method.

Steered transition path sampling.

We introduce a path sampling method for obtaining statistical properties of an arbitrary stochastic dynamics. The method works by decomposing a trajectory in time, estimating the probability of satisfying a progress constraint, modifying the dynamics based on that probability, and then reweighting to calculate averages. Because the progress constraint can be formulated in terms of occurrences of events within time intervals, the method is particularly well suited for controlling the sampling of currents of dynamic events. We demonstrate the method for calculating transition probabilities in barrier crossing problems and survival probabilities in strongly diffusive systems with absorbing states, which are difficult to treat by shooting. We discuss the relation of the algorithm to other methods.

Full Configuration Interaction Excited-State Energies in Large Active Spaces from Subspace Iteration with Repeated Random Sparsification.

We present a stable and systematically improvable quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) approach to calculating excited-state energies, which we implement using our fast randomized iteration method for the full configuration interaction problem (FCI-FRI). Unlike previous excited-state quantum Monte Carlo methods, our approach, which is based on an asymmetric variant of subspace iteration, avoids the use of dot products of random vectors and instead relies upon trial vectors to maintain orthogonality and estimate eigenvalues. By leveraging recent advances, we apply our method to calculate ground- and excited-state energies of challenging molecular systems in large active spaces, including the carbon dimer with 8 electrons in 108 orbitals (8e,108o), an oxo-Mn(salen) transition metal complex (28e,28o), ozone (18e,87o), and butadiene (22e,82o). In the majority of these test cases, our approach yields total excited-state energies that agree with those from state-of-the-art methods─including heat-bath CI, the density matrix renormalization group approach, and FCIQMC─to within sub-milliHartree accuracy. In all cases, estimated excitation energies agree to within about 0.1 eV.

Error Bounds for Dynamical Spectral Estimation.

Dynamical spectral estimation is a well-established numerical approach for estimating eigenvalues and eigenfunctions of the Markov transition operator from trajectory data. Although the approach has been widely applied in biomolecular simulations, its error properties remain poorly understood. Here we analyze the error of a dynamical spectral estimation method called "the variational approach to conformational dynamics" (VAC). We bound the approximation error and estimation error for VAC estimates. Our analysis establishes VAC's convergence properties and suggests new strategies for tuning VAC to improve accuracy.

Long-Time-Scale Predictions from Short-Trajectory Data: A Benchmark Analysis of the Trp-Cage Miniprotein.

Elucidating physical mechanisms with statistical confidence from molecular dynamics simulations can be challenging owing to the many degrees of freedom that contribute to collective motions. To address this issue, we recently introduced a dynamical Galerkin approximation (DGA) [Thiede, E. H. J. Chem. Phys., 150, 2019, 244111], in which chemical kinetic statistics that satisfy equations of dynamical operators are represented by a basis expansion. Here, we reformulate this approach, clarifying (and reducing) the dependence on the choice of lag time. We present a new projection of the reactive current onto collective variables and provide improved estimators for rates and committors. We also present simple procedures for constructing suitable smoothly varying basis functions from arbitrary molecular features. To evaluate estimators and basis sets numerically, we generate and carefully validate a data set of short trajectories for the unfolding and folding of the trp-cage miniprotein, a well-studied system. Our analysis demonstrates a comprehensive strategy for characterizing reaction pathways quantitatively.

Integrated Variational Approach to Conformational Dynamics: A Robust Strategy for Identifying Eigenfunctions of Dynamical Operators.

One approach to analyzing the dynamics of a physical system is to search for long-lived patterns in its motions. This approach has been particularly successful for molecular dynamics data, where slowly decorrelating patterns can indicate large-scale conformational changes. Detecting such patterns is the central objective of the variational approach to conformational dynamics (VAC), as well as the related methods of time-lagged independent component analysis and Markov state modeling. In VAC, the search for slowly decorrelating patterns is formalized as a variational problem solved by the eigenfunctions of the system's transition operator. VAC computes solutions to this variational problem by optimizing a linear or nonlinear model of the eigenfunctions using time series data. Here, we build on VAC's success by addressing two practical limitations. First, VAC can give poor eigenfunction estimates when the lag time parameter is chosen poorly. Second, VAC can overfit when using flexible parametrizations such as artificial neural networks with insufficient regularization. To address these issues, we propose an extension that we call integrated VAC (IVAC). IVAC integrates over multiple lag times before solving the variational problem, making its results more robust and reproducible than VAC's.

Improved Fast Randomized Iteration Approach to Full Configuration Interaction.

We present three modifications to our recently introduced fast randomized iteration method for full configuration interaction (FCI-FRI) and investigate their effects on the method's performance for Ne, H2O, and N2. The initiator approximation, originally developed for full configuration interaction quantum Monte Carlo, significantly reduces statistical error in FCI-FRI when few samples are used in compression operations, enabling its application to larger chemical systems. The semistochastic extension, which involves exactly preserving a fixed subset of elements in each compression, improves statistical efficiency in some cases but reduces it in others. We also developed a new approach to sampling excitations that yields consistent improvements in statistical efficiency and reductions in computational cost. We discuss possible strategies based on our findings for improving the performance of stochastic quantum chemistry methods more generally.

Stratification as a general variance reduction method for Markov chain Monte Carlo.

The Eigenvector Method for Umbrella Sampling (EMUS) [46] belongs to a popular class of methods in statistical mechanics which adapt the principle of stratified survey sampling to the computation of free energies. We develop a detailed theoretical analysis of EMUS. Based on this analysis, we show that EMUS is an efficient general method for computing averages over arbitrary target distributions. In particular, we show that EMUS can be dramatically more efficient than direct MCMC when the target distribution is multimodal or when the goal is to compute tail probabilities. To illustrate these theoretical results, we present a tutorial application of the method to a problem from Bayesian statistics.