Liver function tests in primary care provide a key opportunity to diagnose and engage patients with hepatitis C.

Since the advent of direct-acting antiviral therapy, the elimination of hepatitis c virus (HCV) as a public health concern is now possible. However, identification of those who remain undiagnosed, and re-engagement of those who are diagnosed but remain untreated, will be essential to achieve this. We examined the extent of HCV infection among individuals undergoing liver function tests (LFT) in primary care. Residual biochemistry samples for 6007 patients, who had venous blood collected in primary care for LFT between July 2016 and January 2017, were tested for HCV antibody. Through data linkage to national and sentinel HCV surveillance databases, we also examined the extent of diagnosed infection, attendance at specialist service and HCV treatment for those found to be HCV positive. Overall HCV antibody prevalence was 4.0% and highest for males (5.0%), those aged 37-50 years (6.2%), and with an ALT result of 70 or greater (7.1%). Of those testing positive, 68.9% had been diagnosed with HCV in the past, 84.9% before the study period. Most (92.5%) of those diagnosed with chronic infection had attended specialist liver services and while 67.7% had ever been treated only 38% had successfully cleared infection. More than half of HCV-positive people required assessment, and potentially treatment, for their HCV infection but were not engaged with services during the study period. LFT in primary care are a key opportunity to diagnose, re-diagnose and re-engage patients with HCV infection and highlight the importance of GPs in efforts to eliminate HCV as a public health concern.

Polyketide ß-branching: diversity, mechanism and selectivity.

Covering: 2008 to August 2020 Polyketides are a family of natural products constructed from simple building blocks to generate a diverse range of often complex chemical structures with biological activities of both pharmaceutical and agrochemical importance. Their biosynthesis is controlled by polyketide synthases (PKSs) which catalyse the condensation of thioesters to assemble a functionalised linear carbon chain. Alkyl-branches may be installed at the nucleophilic α- or electrophilic ß-carbon of the growing chain. Polyketide ß-branching is a fascinating biosynthetic modification that allows for the conversion of a ß-ketone into a ß-alkyl group or functionalised side-chain. The overall transformation is catalysed by a multi-protein 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl synthase (HMGS) cassette and is reminiscent of the mevalonate pathway in terpene biosynthesis. The first step most commonly involves the aldol addition of acetate to the electrophilic carbon of the ß-ketothioester catalysed by a 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl synthase (HMGS). Subsequent dehydration and decarboxylation selectively generates either α,ß- or ß,γ-unsaturated ß-alkyl branches which may be further modified. This review covers 2008 to August 2020 and summarises the diversity of ß-branch incorporation and the mechanistic details of each catalytic step. This is extended to discussion of polyketides containing multiple ß-branches and the selectivity exerted by the PKS to ensure ß-branching fidelity. Finally, the application of HMGS in data mining, additional ß-branching mechanisms and current knowledge of the role of ß-branches in this important class of biologically active natural products is discussed.

Setting Scottish diagnostic reference levels for mammography incorporating both craniocaudal and oblique projections between 30 and 80 mm.

Optimisation must be carried out on all medical radiological units to ensure doses are as low as reasonably practicable, consistent with the intended purpose. To achieve this, population doses must be estimated and diagnostic reference levels (DRLs) set. For mammography examinations, mean glandular doses (MGDs) are calculated for this purpose. The average MGD per unit is compared to the national mammography DRL, which is applicable to compressed breast thicknesses (CBTs) of 50-60 mm for oblique (OB) views only and set using data from screening units. It is the purpose of this work to assess planar MGDs across Scotland and set DRLs based on data collected from all screening and symptomatic units across Scotland, considering craniocaudal (CC) and OB views and a wider range of CBTs. Data from the most recent dose audit (spanning 2015-2017) for 67 mammography x-ray units were collated and analysed (26 195 images). No large differences between MGD of CC and OB views were found when considering specific CBT ranges (median difference 2.6%). There was, however, a significant difference between screening and symptomatic data (19%). As expected, MGD increased with CBT and there were significant differences in MGD between manufacturers. From the data analysed, Scottish DRLs were set based on 95th percentile values for digital mammography units for three CBT ranges (30-49, 50-60 and 61-80 mm): 1.3, 1.8 and 2.6 mGy respectively. These values consider OB and CC views collectively. Fifth percentile values are quoted to highlight units at greater risk of insufficient image quality. These MGD values, together with image quality assessments, will facilitate optimisation across Scotland. Results show that use of different CBT ranges and inclusion of CC views increases the number of images included in dose audit data analysis from approximately 12%-92%, which is substantially more representative of the population.

Recommendations for the testing and control of bovine viral diarrhoea in New Zealand pastoral cattle production systems.

Eradicating bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) from cattle populations requires a clear approach for determining the epidemiological status of individual herds and implementing the appropriate control measures to ensure the transmission cycle is cost-effectively broken. This is particularly important in countries such as New Zealand where there is currently no coordinated national programme and the herd-level decisions to control BVD are left to the discretion of individual farmers and veterinarians. To ensure greater consistency in the information being delivered by different stakeholders, we review the epidemiology of BVD in the context of New Zealand pastoral production systems and provides a series of simplified recommendations for the future control of BVD in beef and dairy herds. Based on analysis of BVD test accession data from commercial diagnostic laboratories, it has been estimated that 40.6% of dairy herds and 45.6% of beef herds tested had positive results for antibodies to BVD virus. While BVD continues to remain widespread and under voluntary control in New Zealand, it is recommended that herds test all individual mixed-age cows and replacement heifers for BVD virus or antigen and remove persistently infected animals from the breeding population. All new breeding animals that have entered the herd either through purchase or birth should also be tested for BVD virus. Biosecurity risks should be managed by reducing contacts with other herds and implementing targeted vaccination programmes. All individual purchased cattle should be tested and confirmed negative for BVD virus before being moved onto the buyer's property, even if the herd of origin had a negative antibody-based screening test. Herds should continue annual antigen or virus testing of all calves as soon as possible after birth to identify any persistently infected animals.

CTPA protocol optimisation audit: challenges of dose reduction with maintained image quality.

AIM: To assess computed tomography (CT) pulmonary angiography (CTPA) dose and image quality in a large teaching hospital, and subsequently, to optimise the protocol in order to reduce the dose without affecting image quality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Dose-length product (DLP), patient size, and objective quality parameters (contrast-to-noise ratio and signal-to-noise ratio on standardised levels) were recorded from 31 patients undergoing CTPA, where also a subjective image quality evaluation was carried out independently by three specialist cardiothoracic consultant radiologists. An equivalent objective and subjective quality assessment was carried out on a cohort of the same size in a different tertiary healthcare centre. Moreover, experimental tests using anthropomorphic chest phantoms were performed, using different scan parameters. In light of the above analysis, two of the scanner settings for CTPA were modified, i.e., the SureExposure pre-set was changed to "Standard" noise level, quantified with standard deviation (SD) of 19, and the minimum amperage setting lowered from 80 to 40 mA. A second cohort of patients using this new protocol was audited, following the same methodology. RESULTS: The average DLP of patients undergoing CTPA was initially found to be higher than both local and national dose reference levels (DRLs; 559 versus 300 mGy·cm and 400 mGy·cm, respectively). The new protocol led to a reduction in average DLP (359 mGy·cm) while the image quality, assessed by three cardiothoracic consultant radiologists, was preserved. CONCLUSION: The CTPA protocol was implemented in the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh resulting in significant dose reduction, and is now compliant with national and local DRLs. The image quality was maintained.

Characteristics of acute groin injuries in the adductor muscles: A detailed MRI study in athletes.

Acute adductor injuries account for the majority of acute groin injuries; however, little is known about specific injury characteristics, which could be important for the understanding of etiology and management of these injuries. The study aim was to describe acute adductor injuries in athletes using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Male athletes with acute groin pain and an MRI confirmed acute adductor muscle injury were prospectively included. MRI was performed within 7 days of injury using a standardized protocol and a reliable assessment approach. 156 athletes presented with acute groin pain of which 71 athletes were included, median age 27 years (range 18-37). There were 46 isolated muscle injuries and 25 athletes with multiple adductor injuries. In total, 111 acute adductor muscle injuries were recorded; 62 adductor longus, 18 adductor brevis, 17 pectineus, 9 obturator externus, 4 gracilis, and 1 adductor magnus injury. Adductor longus injuries occurred at three main injury locations; proximal insertion (26%), intramuscular musculo-tendinous junction (MTJ) of the proximal tendon (26%) and the MTJ of the distal tendon (37%). Intramuscular tendon injury was seen in one case. At the proximal insertion, 12 of 16 injuries were complete avulsions. This study shows that acute adductor injuries generally occur in isolation from other muscle groups. Adductor longus is the most frequently injured muscle in isolation and in combination with other adductor muscle injuries. Three characteristic adductor longus injury locations were observed on MRI, with avulsion injuries accounting for three-quarters of injuries at the proximal insertion, and intramuscular tendon injury was uncommon.

Characteristics of acute groin injuries in the hip flexor muscles - a detailed MRI study in athletes.

Hip flexor injuries account for one-third of acute groin injuries; however, little is known about specific injury characteristics. The aims of this study were to describe acute hip flexor injuries using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in athletes with acute groin pain and to compare specific muscle injuries with reported injury situations. Male athletes with acute groin pain were prospectively and consecutively included during three sports seasons. MRI was performed within 7 days of injury using a standardized protocol and a reliable assessment approach. All athletes with an MRI confirmed acute hip flexor muscle injury were included. A total of 156 athletes presented with acute groin pain of which 33 athletes were included, median age 26 years (range 18-35). There were 16 rectus femoris, 12 iliacus, 7 psoas major, 4 sartorius, and 1 tensor fascia latae injury. Rectus femoris injuries primarily occurred during kicking (10) and sprinting (4), whereas iliacus injuries most frequently occurred during change of direction (5). In 10 (63%) rectus femoris injuries, tendinous injury was observed. The iliacus and psoas major injuries were mainly observed at the musculotendinous junction (MTJ), and two included tendinous injury. We have illustrated specific injury locations within these muscles, which may be relevant for the clinical diagnosis and prognosis of these injuries. Most proximal rectus femoris injuries included tendinous injury. In contrast, distinct acute iliacus and psoas injuries predominantly occurred at the MTJ. Only the iliacus or psoas major were injured during change of direction, whereas rectus femoris injuries occurred primarily during kicking and sprinting.

Medial tibial stress syndrome can be diagnosed reliably using history and physical examination.

BACKGROUND: The majority of sporting injuries are clinically diagnosed using history and physical examination as the cornerstone. There are no studies supporting the reliability of making a clinical diagnosis of medial tibial stress syndrome (MTSS). AIM: Our aim was to assess if MTSS can be diagnosed reliably, using history and physical examination. We also investigated if clinicians were able to reliably identify concurrent lower leg injuries. METHODS: A clinical reliability study was performed at multiple sports medicine sites in The Netherlands. Athletes with non-traumatic lower leg pain were assessed for having MTSS by two clinicians, who were blinded to each others' diagnoses. We calculated the prevalence, percentage of agreement, observed percentage of positive agreement (Ppos), observed percentage of negative agreement (Pneg) and Kappa-statistic with 95%CI. RESULTS: Forty-nine athletes participated in this study, of whom 46 completed both assessments. The prevalence of MTSS was 74%. The percentage of agreement was 96%, with Ppos and Pneg of 97% and 92%, respectively. The inter-rater reliability was almost perfect; k=0.89 (95% CI 0.74 to 1.00), p<0.000001. Of the 34 athletes with MTSS, 11 (32%) had a concurrent lower leg injury, which was reliably noted by our clinicians, k=0.73, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.98, p<0.0001. CONCLUSION: Our findings show that MTSS can be reliably diagnosed clinically using history and physical examination, in clinical practice and research settings. We also found that concurrent lower leg injuries are common in athletes with MTSS.

Elimination of bovine viral diarrhoea virus in New Zealand: a review of research progress and future directions.

The major impacts of bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) on cattle health and production have prompted many countries to embark on national elimination programmes. These programmes typically involve identifying and removing persistently infected (PI) cattle in infected herds and implementing biosecurity measures, such as pre- or post-movement testing. In order to design a systematic national control programme to eliminate BVD in New Zealand, which achieves the greatest benefits to the industries at the lowest cost to individual farmers, an accurate understanding is necessary of the epidemiology, economics and social motivation for BVD control in New Zealand. In this article we briefly review the pathogenesis of BVD, transmission and diagnosis of BVD virus infection, and effectiveness of vaccination. We summarise the current state of knowledge of the prevalence, risk factors for transmission, and financial impacts of BVD in New Zealand. We describe control programmes in Europe and then discuss the challenges that must be addressed to design a cost-effective national control programme to eliminate BVD in New Zealand.

The Warwick Agreement on femoroacetabular impingement syndrome (FAI syndrome): an international consensus statement.

The 2016 Warwick Agreement on femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) syndrome was convened to build an international, multidisciplinary consensus on the diagnosis and management of patients with FAI syndrome. 22 panel members and 1 patient from 9 countries and 5 different specialties participated in a 1-day consensus meeting on 29 June 2016. Prior to the meeting, 6 questions were agreed on, and recent relevant systematic reviews and seminal literature were circulated. Panel members gave presentations on the topics of the agreed questions at Sports Hip 2016, an open meeting held in the UK on 27-29 June. Presentations were followed by open discussion. At the 1-day consensus meeting, panel members developed statements in response to each question through open discussion; members then scored their level of agreement with each response on a scale of 0-10. Substantial agreement (range 9.5-10) was reached for each of the 6 consensus questions, and the associated terminology was agreed on. The term 'femoroacetabular impingement syndrome' was introduced to reflect the central role of patients' symptoms in the disorder. To reach a diagnosis, patients should have appropriate symptoms, positive clinical signs and imaging findings. Suitable treatments are conservative care, rehabilitation, and arthroscopic or open surgery. Current understanding of prognosis and topics for future research were discussed. The 2016 Warwick Agreement on FAI syndrome is an international multidisciplinary agreement on the diagnosis, treatment principles and key terminology relating to FAI syndrome.Author note The Warwick Agreement on femoroacetabular impingement syndrome has been endorsed by the following 25 clinical societies: American Medical Society for Sports Medicine (AMSSM), Association of Chartered Physiotherapists in Sports and Exercise Medicine (ACPSEM), Australasian College of Sports and Exercise Physicians (ACSEP), Austian Sports Physiotherapists, British Association of Sports and Exercise Medicine (BASEM), British Association of Sport Rehabilitators and Trainers (BASRaT), Canadian Academy of Sport and Exercise Medicine (CASEM), Danish Society of Sports Physical Therapy (DSSF), European College of Sports and Exercise Physicians (ECOSEP), European Society of Sports Traumatology, Knee Surgery and Arthroscopy (ESSKA), Finnish Sports Physiotherapist Association (SUFT), German-Austrian-Swiss Society for Orthopaedic Traumatologic Sports Medicine (GOTS), International Federation of Sports Physical Therapy (IFSPT), International Society for Hip Arthroscopy (ISHA), Groupo di Interesse Specialistico dell'A.I.F.I., Norwegian Association of Sports Medicine and Physical Activity (NIMF), Norwegian Sports Physiotherapy Association (FFI), Society of Sports Therapists (SST), South African Sports Medicine Association (SASMA), Sports Medicine Australia (SMA), Sports Doctors Australia (SDrA), Sports Physiotherapy New Zealand (SPNZ), Swedish Society of Exercise and Sports Medicine (SFAIM), Swiss Society of Sports Medicine (SGMS/SGSM), Swiss Sports Physiotherapy Association (SSPA).

A prospective study on MRI findings and prognostic factors in athletes with MTSS.

In medial tibial stress syndrome (MTSS) bone marrow and periosteal edema of the tibia on the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is frequently reported. The relationship between these MRI findings and recovery has not been previously studied. This prospective study describes MRI findings of 52 athletes with MTSS. Baseline characteristics were recorded and recovery was related to these parameters and MRI findings to examine for prognostic factors. Results showed that 43.5% of the symptomatic legs showed bone marrow or periosteal edema. Absence of periosteal and bone marrow edema on MRI was associated with longer recovery (P = 0.033 and P = 0.013). A clinical scoring system for sports activity (SARS score) was significantly higher in the presence of bone marrow edema (P = 0.027). When clinical scoring systems (SARS score and the Lower Extremity Functional Scale) were combined in a model, time to recovery could be predicted substantially (explaining 54% of variance, P = 0.006). In conclusion, in athletes with MTSS, bone marrow or periosteal edema is seen on MRI in 43,5% of the symptomatic legs. Furthermore, periosteal and bone marrow edema on MRI and clinical scoring systems are prognostic factors. Future studies should focus on MRI findings in symptomatic MTSS and compare these with a matched control group.

Relationship between neovascularization and clinical severity in Achilles tendinopathy in 556 paired measurements.

Neovascularization is frequently observed in tendinopathy. Previous studies have focused on the role of neovascularization in Achilles tendinopathy, but have been conducted in small series. It is still unclear whether the degree of neovascularization is related to severity of symptoms. The purpose was to study the relationship between ultrasonographic neovascularization and clinical severity in patients with Achilles tendinopathy. In this prospective cohort study, data on 127 patients (141 tendons) were assembled from databases of three clinical trials. All patients followed an eccentric exercise program. The Öhberg neovascularization score (0-4+) and Victorian Institute of Sports Assessment-Achilles (VISA-A) score (split into domains: pain, function and activity) were collected during baseline and follow-up. The relationship between neovascularization and VISA-A score was calculated. At baseline, 107 tendons (76%) showed some degree of neovascularization. In 556 coupled measurements, neovascularization was weakly related to the VISA-A score [Exp (B) 1.017, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.007-1.026]. No significant relationship was found between neovascularization and the pain domain (P = 0.277) and the activity domain (P = 0.283), but there was between neovascularization and the function domain of the VISA-A score [Exp (B) = 1.067, 95% CI 1.018-1.119]. In conclusion, neovascularization in Achilles tendinopathy is weakly related to clinical severity, mainly based on the function domain of the VISA-A score.

Predicting return to play after hamstring injuries.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies on the prognostic value of clinical and MRI parameters for the time to return to play (TTRTP) in acute hamstring injuries showed only limited to moderate evidence for the various investigated parameters. Some studies had multiple methodological limitations, including retrospective designs and the use of univariate analysis only. The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of clinical and MRI parameters for TTRTP using multivariate analysis. METHODS: 28 clinical and MRI parameters were prospectively investigated for an association with TTRTP in 80 non-professional athletes with MRI positive hamstring injuries undergoing a standardised rehabilitation programme. The association between possible prognostic parameters and TTRTP was assessed with a multivariate linear regression model. Parameters that had a p value <0.2 on univariate testing were included in this model. RESULTS: 74 athletes were available for analysis. A total of nine variables met the criteria for the multivariate analysis: intensity of sports, level of sports, self-predicted TTRTP by the athlete, length of discomfort on palpation, deficit in passive straight leg raise, pain score on isometric knee flexion, isometric knee flexion strength deficit and distance of the proximal pole of the MRI hyperintensity to the tuber ischiadicum. Of these, only self-predicted TTRTP by the athlete and a passive straight leg raise deficit remained significantly associated with TTRTP after stepwise logistic regression. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical parameters self-predicted TTRTP and passive straight leg raise deficit are independently associated with the TTRTP. MRI parameters in grade 1 and 2 hamstring injuries, as described in the literature, are not associated with TTRTP. For clinical practice, prognosis of the TTRTP in these injuries should better be based on clinical parameters.

Hip and groin pain in male field hockey players: Prevalence, incidence and associations with patient reported outcome scores and hip muscle strength.

OBJECTIVES: Investigate point prevalence (second half season 2018-2019) and incidence (season 2017-2018 and first half season 2018-2019) of non-time-loss and time-loss hip/groin pain in male field hockey players. Secondary aims were to study associations between: current/previous hip/groin pain and hip muscle strength, patient reported outcome measures (PROM) and hip muscle strength, and previous hip/groin pain and PROMs. Additionally we studied normal values for the PROMs (Hip and Groin Outcome Score (HAGOS)). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Testing at field hockey clubs. PARTICIPANTS: 100 male field hockey players (elite, sub-elite and amateur). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Point prevalence and incidence of hip/groin pain, strength: eccentric adduction and abduction, adductor squeeze, HAGOS. RESULTS: Hip/groin pain point prevalence was 17% (time-loss: 6%) and incidence was 36% (time-loss: 12%). Presence of current or previous hip/groin and lower HAGOS-values were not associated with lower hip muscle strength. Previous hip/groin pain was associated with a significant lower HAGOS-values in all domains, except for the 'participation in physical activities' domain. CONCLUSIONS: Hip/groin pain is common in field hockey. One fifth of players have hip/groin pain and one third had pain in the previous season. Previous hip/groin pain was associated with worse ongoing patient reported outcomes in most domains.

Risk factors and prognostic indicators for medial tibial stress syndrome.

The objective of the study was to examine the risk factors and prognostic indicators for medial tibial stress syndrome (MTSS). In total, 35 subjects were included in the study. For the risk factor analysis, the following parameters were investigated: hip internal and external ranges of motion, knee flexion and extension, dorsal and plantar ankle flexion, hallux flexion and extension, subtalar eversion and inversion, maximal calf girth, lean calf girth, standing foot angle and navicular drop test. After multivariate regression decreased hip internal range of motion, increased ankle plantar flexion and positive navicular drop were associated with MTSS. A higher body mass index was associated with a longer duration to full recovery. For other prognostic indicators, no relationship was found.

Shockwave treatment for medial tibial stress syndrome in athletes; a prospective controlled study.

Objective The purpose of this study was to describe the results of two treatment regimens for medial tibial stress syndrome (MTSS); a graded running programme and the same running programme with additional shockwave therapy (extracorporeal shockwave therapy; ESWT). Design A prospective observational controlled trial. Setting Two different sports medicine departments. Participants 42 athletes with MTSS were included. Intervention Patients from one hospital were treated with a graded running programme, while patients from the other hospital were treated with the same graded running programme and focused ESWT (five sessions in 9 weeks). Main Outcome Measures Time to full recovery (the endpoint was being able to run 18 min consecutively without pain at a fixed intensity). Results The time to full recovery was significantly faster in the ESWT group compared with the patients who only performed a graded running programme, respectively 59.7±25.8 and 91.6±43.0 days (p=0.008). Conclusions This prospective observational study showed that MTSS patients may benefit from ESWT in addition to a graded running programme. ESWT as an additional treatment warrants further investigation in a prospective controlled trial with the addition of randomisation and double blinding.

A 5-year follow-up study of Alfredson's heel-drop exercise programme in chronic midportion Achilles tendinopathy.

BACKGROUND: Eccentric exercises have the most evidence in conservative treatment of midportion Achilles tendinopathy. Although short-term studies show significant improvement, little is known of the long-term (>3 years) results. AIM: To evaluate the 5-year outcome of patients with chronic midportion Achilles tendinopathy treated with the classical Alfredson's heel-drop exercise programme. STUDY DESIGN: Part of a 5-year follow-up of a previously conducted randomised controlled trial. Methods 58 patients (70 tendons) were approached 5 years after the start of the heel-drop exercise programme according to Alfredson. At baseline and at 5-year follow-up, the validated Victorian Institute of Sports Assessment-Achilles (VISA-A) questionnaire score, pain status, alternative treatments received and ultrasonographic neovascularisation score were recorded. RESULTS: In 46 patients (58 tendons), the VISA-A score significantly increased from 49.2 at baseline to 83.6 after 5 years (p<0.001) and from the 1-year to 5-year follow-up from 75.0 to 83.4 (p<0.01). 39.7% of the patients were completely pain-free at follow-up and 48.3% had received one or more alternative treatments. The sagittal tendon thickness decreased from 8.05 mm (SD 2.1) at baseline to 7.50 mm (SD 1.6) at the 5-year follow-up (p=0.051). CONCLUSION: At 5-year follow-up, a significant increase of VISA-A score can be expected. After the 3-month Alfredson's heel-drop exercise programme, almost half of the patients had received other therapies. Although improvement of symptoms can be expected at long term, mild pain may remain.

Two year follow-up study of stressors and occupational stress in submariners.

BACKGROUND: Submariners are an occupational group within the Royal Navy (RN) who work in isolated and extreme conditions. This preliminary study forms part of a longitudinal study of occupational stress in the RN. AIMS: To compare stress prevalence in submariners with matched controls and to identify predictors of occupational stress in submariners over a 2 year follow-up period. METHODS: Participants completed a Work and Well-Being Questionnaire to measure occupational stressors and the General Health Questionnaire-12 (GHQ-12) to measure stress at time point 1, and a follow-up GHQ-12 2 years later. Demographically matched controls from the surface fleet of the RN were identified for each submariner. Regression models were developed for submariners and their controls to predict future stress at time point 2 using psychosocial predictors from time point 1. RESULTS: Participants comprised 144 submariners and 144 general service controls. There were no differences between submariners and their surface fleet counterparts in the prevalence of occupational stress. Nevertheless, different predictors for the development of stress were found between the two groups. For submariners, over-commitment and rank were the main predictors; whereas for controls, the predictors were length of service, body mass index and physical work. CONCLUSIONS: Submariners were not more likely to suffer from occupational stress than surface fleet controls in the RN. However, the psychosocial predictors of stress were significantly different for this RN specialist group, demonstrating the importance of developing individual models of stress for different occupational groups.