Vulnerability to extreme heat by socio-demographic characteristics and area green space among the elderly in Michigan, 1990-2007.

OBJECTIVES: We examined how individual and area socio-demographic characteristics independently modified the extreme heat (EH)-mortality association among elderly residents of 8 Michigan cities, May-September, 1990-2007. METHODS: In a time-stratified case-crossover design, we regressed cause-specific mortality against EH (indicator for 4-day mean, minimum, maximum or apparent temperature above 97th or 99 th percentiles). We examined effect modification with interactions between EH and personal marital status, age, race, sex and education and ZIP-code percent "non-green space" (National Land Cover Dataset), age, race, income, education, living alone, and housing age (U.S. Census). RESULTS: In models including multiple effect modifiers, the odds of cardiovascular mortality during EH (99 th percentile threshold) vs. non-EH were higher among non-married individuals (1.21, 95% CI=1.14-1.28 vs. 0.98, 95% CI=0.90-1.07 among married individuals) and individuals in ZIP codes with high (91%) non-green space (1.17, 95% CI=1.06-1.29 vs. 0.98, 95% CI=0.89-1.07 among individuals in ZIP codes with low (39%) non-green space). Results suggested that housing age may also be an effect modifier. For the EH-respiratory mortality association, the results were inconsistent between temperature metrics and percentile thresholds of EH but largely insignificant. CONCLUSIONS: Green space, housing and social isolation may independently enhance elderly peoples' heat-related cardiovascular mortality vulnerability. Local adaptation efforts should target areas and populations at greater risk.

Staying cool in a changing climate: Reaching vulnerable populations during heat events.

The frequency and intensity of hot weather events are expected to increase globally, threatening human health, especially among the elderly, poor, and chronically ill. Current literature indicates that emergency preparedness plans, heat health warning systems, and related interventions may not be reaching or supporting behavior change among those most vulnerable in heat events. Using a qualitative multiple case study design, we comprehensively examined practices of these populations to stay cool during hot weather ("cooling behaviors") in four U.S. cities with documented racial/ethnic and socio-economic disparities and diverse heat preparedness strategies: Phoenix, Arizona; Detroit, Michigan; New York City, New York; and Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Based on semi-structured in-depth interviews we conducted with 173 community members and organizational leaders during 2009-2010, we assessed why vulnerable populations do or do not participate in health-promoting behaviors at home or in their community during heat events, inquiring about perceptions of heat-related threats and vulnerability and the role of social support. While vulnerable populations often recognize heat's potential health threats, many overlook or disassociate from risk factors or rely on experiences living in or visiting warmer climates as a protective factor. Many adopt basic cooling behaviors, but unknowingly harmful behaviors such as improper use of fans and heating and cooling systems are also adopted. Decision-making related to commonly promoted behaviors such as air conditioner use and cooling center attendance is complex, and these resources are often inaccessible financially, physically, or culturally. Interviewees expressed how interpersonal, intergenerational relationships are generally but not always protective, where peer relationships are a valuable mechanism for facilitating cooling behaviors among the elderly during heat events. To prevent disparities in heat morbidity and mortality in an increasingly changing climate, we note the implications of local context, and we broadly inform heat preparedness plans, interventions, and messages by sharing the perspectives and words of community members representing vulnerable populations and leaders who work most closely with them.

Climate change and health: indoor heat exposure in vulnerable populations.

INTRODUCTION: Climate change is increasing the frequency of heat waves and hot weather in many urban environments. Older people are more vulnerable to heat exposure but spend most of their time indoors. Few published studies have addressed indoor heat exposure in residences occupied by an elderly population. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationship between outdoor and indoor temperatures in homes occupied by the elderly and determine other predictors of indoor temperature. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We collected hourly indoor temperature measurements of 30 different homes; outdoor temperature, dewpoint temperature, and solar radiation data during summer 2009 in Detroit, MI. We used mixed linear regression to model indoor temperatures' responsiveness to weather, housing and environmental characteristics, and evaluated our ability to predict indoor heat exposures based on outdoor conditions. RESULTS: Average maximum indoor temperature for all locations was 34.85°C, 13.8°C higher than average maximum outdoor temperature. Indoor temperatures of single family homes constructed of vinyl paneling or wood siding were more sensitive than brick homes to outdoor temperature changes and internal heat gains. Outdoor temperature, solar radiation, and dewpoint temperature predicted 38% of the variability of indoor temperatures. CONCLUSIONS: Indoor exposures to heat in Detroit exceed the comfort range among elderly occupants, and can be predicted using outdoor temperatures, characteristics of the housing stock and surroundings to improve heat exposure assessment for epidemiological investigations. Weatherizing homes and modifying home surroundings could mitigate indoor heat exposure among the elderly.

Geostatistical exploration of spatial variation of summertime temperatures in the Detroit metropolitan region.

BACKGROUND: Because of the warming climate urban temperature patterns have been receiving increased attention. Temperature within urban areas can vary depending on land cover, meteorological and other factors. High resolution satellite data can be used to understand this intra-urban variability, although they have been primarily studied to characterize urban heat islands at a larger spatial scale. OBJECTIVE: This study examined whether satellite-derived impervious surface and meteorological conditions from multiple sites can improve characterization of spatial variability of temperature within an urban area. METHODS: Temperature was measured at 17 outdoor sites throughout the Detroit metropolitan area during the summer of 2008. Kriging and linear regression were applied to daily temperatures and secondary information, including impervious surface and distance-to-water. Performance of models in predicting measured temperatures was evaluated by cross-validation. Variograms derived from several scenarios were compared to determine whether high-resolution impervious surface information could capture fine-scale spatial structure of temperature in the study area. RESULTS: Temperatures measured at the sites were significantly different from each other, and all kriging techniques generally performed better than the two linear regression models. Impervious surface values and distance-to-water generally improved predictions slightly. Restricting models to days with lake breezes and with less cloud cover also somewhat improved the predictions. In addition, incorporating high-resolution impervious surface information into cokriging or universal kriging enhanced the ability to characterize fine-scale spatial structure of temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Meteorological and satellite-derived data can better characterize spatial variability in temperature across a metropolitan region. The data sources and methods we used can be applied in epidemiological studies and public health interventions to protect vulnerable populations from extreme heat events.

Survey of county-level heat preparedness and response to the 2011 summer heat in 30 U.S. States.

BACKGROUND: Adapting to extreme heat is becoming more critical as our climate changes. Previous research reveals that very few communities in the United States have programs to sufficiently prevent health problems during hot weather. OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to examine county-level local heat preparedness and response in 30 U.S. states following the unusually hot summer of 2011. METHODS: Using a multimodal survey approach, we invited local health and emergency response departments from 586 counties to participate in the largest survey to date of heat preparedness and response in the United States. County-level responses were pooled into national and regional-level summaries. Logistic regressions modeled associations between heat planning/response and county characteristics, including population, poverty rates, typical summer weather, and 2011 summer weather. RESULTS: Of 586 counties, 190 (32%) responded to the survey. Only 40% of these counties had existing heat plans. The most common heat responses were communication about heat, outreach, and collaborations with other organizations. Both heat preparedness and heat response were, on average, more extensive in counties with higher populations, lower poverty rates, and lower percentages of older people. Heat response was generally more extensive in counties with heat plans. CONCLUSIONS: Most responding counties were underprepared for extreme heat in 2011 and lacked a formal response plan. Because counties with heat plans were more likely to act to prevent adverse heat impacts to residents, local health departments should consider adopting such plans, especially because increased extreme heat is anticipated with further climate change.

Strategies to reduce the harmful effects of extreme heat events: a four-city study.

Extreme heat events (EHEs) are becoming more intense, more frequent and longer lasting in the 21st century. These events can disproportionately impact the health of low-income, minority, and urban populations. To better understand heat-related intervention strategies used by four U.S. cities, we conducted 73 semi-structured interviews with government and non-governmental organization leaders representing public health, general social services, emergency management, meteorology, and the environmental planning sectors in Detroit, MI; New York City, NY; Philadelphia, PA and Phoenix, AZ-cities selected for their diverse demographics, climates, and climate adaptation strategies. We identified activities these leaders used to reduce the harmful effects of heat for residents in their city, as well as the obstacles they faced and the approaches they used to evaluate these efforts. Local leaders provided a description of how local context (e.g., climate, governance and city structure) impacted heat preparedness. Despite the differences among study cities, political will and resource access were critical to driving heat-health related programming. Upon completion of our interviews, we convened leaders in each city to discuss these findings and their ongoing efforts through day-long workshops. Our findings and the recommendations that emerged from these workshops could inform other local or national efforts towards preventing heat-related morbidity and mortality.

Validating satellite-derived land surface temperature with in situ measurements: a public health perspective.

BACKGROUND: Land surface temperature (LST) and percent surface imperviousness (SI), both derived from satellite imagery, have been used to characterize the urban heat island effect, a phenomenon in which urban areas are warmer than non-urban areas. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the correlations between LSTs and SI images with actual temperature readings from a ground-based network of outdoor monitors. METHODS: We evaluated the relationships among a) LST calculated from a 2009 summertime satellite image of the Detroit metropolitan region, Michigan; b) SI from the 2006 National Land Cover Data Set; and c) ground-based temperature measurements monitored during the same time period at 19 residences throughout the Detroit metropolitan region. Associations between these ground-based temperatures and the average LSTs and SI at different radii around the point of the ground-based temperature measurement were evaluated at different time intervals. Spearman correlation coefficients and corresponding p-values were calculated. RESULTS: Satellite-derived LST and SI values were significantly correlated with 24-hr average and August monthly average ground temperatures at all but two of the radii examined (100 m for LST and 0 m for SI). Correlations were also significant for temperatures measured between 0400 and 0500 hours for SI, except at 0 m, but not LST. Statistically significant correlations ranging from 0.49 to 0.91 were observed between LST and SI. CONCLUSIONS: Both SI and LST could be used to better understand spatial variation in heat exposures over longer time frames but are less useful for estimating shorter-term, actual temperature exposures, which can be useful for public health preparedness during extreme heat events.

Assessing heat-adaptive behaviors among older, urban-dwelling adults.

OBJECTIVES: Health studies have shown that the elderly are at a greater risk to extreme heat. The frequency and intensity of summer heat waves will continue to increase as a result of climate change. It is important that we understand the environmental and structural factors that increase heat vulnerability, as well as examine the behaviors used by the elderly to adapt to hot indoor temperatures. STUDY DESIGN: From June 1 to August 31, 2009, residents in 29 homes in Detroit, MI, kept an hourly log of eight heat-adaptive behaviors: opening windows/doors, turning fans or the air conditioner on, changing clothes, taking a shower, going to the basement, the porch/yard, or leaving the house. Percentages of hourly behavior were calculated, overall and stratified by housing type and percent surface imperviousness. The frequency of behavior use, as a result of indoor and outdoor predetermined temperature intervals was compared to a reference temperature range of 21.1-23.8°C. RESULTS: The use of all adaptive behaviors, except going to the porch or yard, was significantly associated with indoor temperature. Non-mechanical adaptations such as changing clothes, taking showers, and going outside or to the basement were rarely used. Residents living in high-rises and highly impervious areas reported a higher use of adaptive behaviors. The odds of leaving the house significantly increased as outdoor temperature increased. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that the full range of heat adaptation measures may be underused by the elderly and public health interventions need to focus on outreach to these populations.

Preventing cold-related morbidity and mortality in a changing climate.

Winter weather patterns are anticipated to become more variable with increasing average global temperatures. Research shows that excess morbidity and mortality occurs during cold weather periods. We critically reviewed evidence relating temperature variability, health outcomes, and adaptation strategies to cold weather. Health outcomes included cardiovascular-, respiratory-, cerebrovascular-, and all-cause morbidity and mortality. Individual and contextual risk factors were assessed to highlight associations between individual- and neighborhood-level characteristics that contribute to a person's vulnerability to variability in cold weather events. Epidemiologic studies indicate that the populations most vulnerable to variations in cold winter weather are the elderly, rural and, generally, populations living in moderate winter climates. Fortunately, cold-related morbidity and mortality are preventable and strategies exist for protecting populations from these adverse health outcomes. We present a range of adaptation strategies that can be implemented at the individual, building, and neighborhood level to protect vulnerable populations from cold-related morbidity and mortality. The existing research justifies the need for increased outreach to individuals and communities for education on protective adaptations in cold weather. We propose that future climate change adaptation research couple building energy and thermal comfort models with epidemiological data to evaluate and quantify the impacts of adaptation strategies.

Preventing heat-related morbidity and mortality: new approaches in a changing climate.

Due to global climate change, the world will, on average, experience a higher number of heat waves, and the intensity and length of these heat waves is projected to increase. Knowledge about the implications of heat exposure to human health is growing, with excess mortality and illness occurring during hot weather in diverse regions. Certain groups, including the elderly, the urban poor, and those with chronic health conditions, are at higher risk. Preventive actions include: establishing heat wave warning systems; making cool environments available (through air conditioning or other means); public education; planting trees and other vegetation; and modifying the built environment to provide proper ventilation and use materials and colors that reduce heat build-up and optimize thermal comfort. However, to inspire local prevention activities, easily understood information about the strategies' benefits needs to be incorporated into decision tools. Integrating heat health information into a comprehensive adaptation planning process can alert local decision-makers to extreme heat risks and provide information necessary to choose strategies that yield the largest health improvements and cost savings. Tools to enable this include web-based programs that illustrate effective methods for including heat health in comprehensive local-level adaptation planning; calculate costs and benefits of several activities; maps showing zones of high potential heat exposure and vulnerable populations in a local area; and public awareness materials and training for implementing preventive activities. A new computer-based decision tool will enable local estimates of heat-related health effects and potential savings from implementing a range of prevention strategies.