Referral to the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme and conversion from nondiabetic hyperglycaemia to type 2 diabetes mellitus in England: A matched cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: The NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (NDPP) is a behaviour change programme for adults who are at risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM): people with raised blood glucose levels, but not in the diabetic range, diagnosed with nondiabetic hyperglycaemia (NDH). We examined the association between referral to the programme and reducing conversion of NDH to T2DM. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Cohort study of patients attending primary care in England using clinical Practice Research Datalink data from 1 April 2016 (NDPP introduction) to 31 March 2020 was used. To minimise confounding, we matched patients referred to the programme in referring practices to patients in nonreferring practices. Patients were matched based on age (≥3 years), sex, and ≥365 days of NDH diagnosis. Random-effects parametric survival models evaluated the intervention, controlling for numerous covariates. Our primary analysis was selected a priori: complete case analysis, 1-to-1 practice matching, up to 5 controls sampled with replacement. Various sensitivity analyses were conducted, including multiple imputation approaches. Analysis was adjusted for age (at index date), sex, time from NDH diagnosis to index date, BMI, HbA1c, total serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, prescription of metformin, smoking status, socioeconomic status, a diagnosis of depression, and comorbidities. A total of 18,470 patients referred to NDPP were matched to 51,331 patients not referred to NDPP in the main analysis. Mean follow-up from referral was 482.0 (SD = 317.3) and 472.4 (SD = 309.1) days, for referred to NDPP and not referred to NDPP, respectively. Baseline characteristics in the 2 groups were similar, except referred to NDPP were more likely to have higher BMI and be ever-smokers. The adjusted HR for referred to NDPP, compared to not referred to NDPP, was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.73 to 0.87) (p < 0.001). The probability of not converting to T2DM at 36 months since referral was 87.3% (95% CI: 86.5% to 88.2%) for referred to NDPP and 84.6% (95% CI: 83.9% to 85.4%) for not referred to NDPP. Associations were broadly consistent in the sensitivity analyses, but often smaller in magnitude. As this is an observational study, we cannot conclusively address causality. Other limitations include the inclusion of controls from the other 3 UK countries, data not allowing the evaluation of the association between attendance (rather than referral) and conversion. CONCLUSIONS: The NDPP was associated with reduced conversion rates from NDH to T2DM. Although we observed smaller associations with risk reduction, compared to what has been observed in RCTs, this is unsurprising since we examined the impact of referral, rather than attendance or completion of the intervention.

The use and impact of digital COVID-19 tracking in adult social care: a prospective cohort study of care homes in Greater Manchester.

BACKGROUND: To support proactive care during the coronavirus pandemic, a digital COVID-19 symptom tracker was deployed in Greater Manchester (UK) care homes. This study aimed to understand what factors were associated with the post-uptake use of the tracker and whether the tracker had any effects in controlling the spread of COVID-19. METHODS: Daily data on COVID-19, tracker uptake and use, and other key indicators such as staffing levels, the number of staff self-isolating, availability of personal protective equipment, bed occupancy levels, and any problems in accepting new residents were analysed for 547 care homes across Greater Manchester for the period April 2020 to April 2021. Differences in tracker use across local authorities, types of care homes, and over time were assessed using correlated effects logistic regressions. Differences in numbers of COVID-19 cases in homes adopting versus not adopting the tracker were compared via event design difference-in-difference estimations. RESULTS: Homes adopting the tracker used it on 44% of days post-adoption. Use decreased by 88% after one year of uptake (odds ratio 0.12; 95% confidence interval 0.06-0.28). Use was highest in the locality initiating the project (odds ratio 31.73; 95% CI 3.76-268.05). Care homes owned by a chain had lower use (odds ratio 0.30; 95% CI 0.14-0.63 versus single ownership care homes), and use was not associated with COVID-19 or staffing levels. Tracker uptake had no impact on controlling COVID-19 spread. Staff self-isolating and local area COVID-19 cases were positively associated with lagged COVID-19 spread in care homes (relative risks 1.29; 1.2-1.4 and 1.05; 1.0-1.1, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The use of the COVID-19 symptom tracker in care homes was not maintained except in Locality 1 and did not appear to reduce the COVID-19 spread. COVID-19 cases in care homes were mainly driven by care home local-area COVID-19 cases and infections among the staff members. Digital deterioration trackers should be co-produced with care home staff, and local authorities should provide long-term support in their adoption and use.

A hospital-based independent domestic violence advisor service: demand and response during the Covid-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Recent UK policy has focussed on improving support for victims of domestic violence and abuse (DVA), in healthcare settings. DVA victims attending hospital are often at highest risk of harm, yet DVA support in hospitals has been inadequate. A targeted service supporting high risk DVA victims, was implemented at a hospital Trust in North West England. The service was provided by Independent Domestic Violence Advisors (IDVAs). This paper assesses the activity in the hospital-based IDVA service during the COVID-19 pandemicand addresses the research questions: What was the demand for the service? How did the service respond? What facilitated this response? METHODS: A mixed-methods study was undertaken. Quantitative data on referrals to the service were examined using simple descriptive statistics and compared to other DVA services. Semi-structured interviews were undertaken with IDVAs and other hospital staff involved with the service and the data subjected to thematic analysis. RESULTS: The quantitative analysis showed that referrals dropped at the start of lockdown, then increased and continued to rise; the qualitative findings reiterated this pattern. Referrals came from a range of departments across the Trust, with the majority from A&E. Pre-pandemic, the population supported by the service included higher proportions of males and people aged 40 and over than at other IDVA services; this continued during the pandemic. The qualitative findings indicated a flexible response during the pandemic, enabled by strong working relationships and by using workarounds. CONCLUSIONS: The hospital-based IDVAs provided an efficient, flexible serviceduring the COVID-19 pandemic. Referrals increased during the first lockdown and subsequent relaxing of restrictions. Locating the IDVAs within a team working across the organisation, and building good working relationships facilitated an effective disclosure and referral route, which endured through social restrictions. The IDVAs supported high-risk victims who may otherwise not have been identified in traditional community-based DVA settings during the pandemic. Hospital-based IDVA services can broaden access by supporting vulnerable, at risk populations whose needs may not be identified at other services.

Do different means of recording sexual orientation affect its relationship with health and wellbeing?

Analyses of an individual's sexual orientation over time are desirable for policy evaluations and in estimating causal effects. We explore whether accounting for those who change sexual orientation over two time points, to create a measure of fluidity, produces substantially different results compared to sexual orientation measured at one time point and extrapolated to subsequent survey waves. We use seven waves of the UK Household Longitudinal Study which asked sexual orientation identity questions at two time points: waves three (2011-2013) and nine (2017-2019). Using the relationship with sexual orientation and various health outcomes as an empirical example, via a correlated random effects estimation approach, we find that the infrequent reporting of sexual orientation could over-estimate the negative impact for lesbian, gay and "other" individuals and under-estimate the negative impact for bisexuals. We further test the feasibility of the fluidity measure by examining attrition by sexual orientation identity and find small but statistically significant probabilities of attrition. Correction for attrition bias through inverse probability weighting makes little difference to the results. These results highlight the importance of accounting for changes in sexual orientation in empirical analysis and that doing so is feasible.

Delayed transfers of care for older people: a wider perspective.

Delayed transfers of care (DTOC), often unhelpfully referred to as 'bed blocking', has become a byword for waste and inefficiency in healthcare systems throughout the world. An estimated 2.7 million bed days are occupied each year in England by older people no longer in need of acute treatment, estimated to cost £820 million (2014/15) in inpatient care. Policy and media attention have often been drawn to this narrative of financial waste, resulting in policy setting that directly targets the level of DTOC, but has done little to put patient health first. These figures and policies portray a misleading image of the delays as primarily of concern in terms of their financial burden on acute hospital care, with little consideration given to the quantification on patient health or wider societal impacts. In spite of the multi-factorial decision-making process that occurs for each patient discharge, current evaluation frameworks and national policy setting fail to reflect the complexity of the process. In this commentary, we interrogate the current approach to the quantification of the DTOC impact and explore how policies and evaluation methods can do more to reflect the true impact of the delays.

Presence of pathogenic copy number variants (CNVs) is correlated with socioeconomic status.

Socioeconomic status (SES) is a major determinant of health. We studied the Index of Multiple Deprivation Rank of 473 families with individuals with pathogenic autosomal copy number variants (CNVs) and known inheritance status. The IMDR distribution of families with pathogenic CNVs was significantly different from the general population. Families with inherited CNVs were significantly more likely to be living in areas of higher deprivation when compared with families that had individuals with de novo CNVs. These results provide unique insights into biological determinants of SES. As CNVs are relatively frequent in the general population, these results have important medical and policy consequences.

Increasing questionnaire response: evidence from a nested RCT within a longitudinal birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: High response rates are essential when questionnaires are used within research, as representativeness can affect the validity of studies and the ability to generalise the findings to a wider population. The study aimed to measure the response rate to questionnaires from a large longitudinal epidemiological study and sought to determine if any changes made throughout data collection had a positive impact on the response to questionnaires and addressed any imbalance in response rates by participants' levels of deprivation. METHODS: Data were taken from a prospective, comparative study, designed to examine the effects of the reintroduction of water fluoridation on children's oral health over a five-year period. Response rates were analysed for the first year of data collection. During this year changes were made to the questionnaire layout and cover letter to attempt to increase response rates. Additionally a nested randomised control trial compared the effect on response rates of three different reminders to complete questionnaires. RESULTS: Data were available for 1824 individuals. Sending the complete questionnaire again to non-responders resulted in the highest level of response (25%). A telephone call to participants was the only method that appeared to address the imbalance in deprivation, with a mean difference in deprivation score of 2.65 (95% CI -15.50 to 10.20) between the responders and non-responders. CONCLUSIONS: Initially, low response rates were recorded within this large, longitudinal study giving rise to concerns about non-response bias. Resending the entire questionnaire again was the most effective way of reminding participants to complete the questionnaire. As this is a less labour intensive method than for example, calling participants, more time can then be spent targeting groups who are underrepresented. In order to address these biases, data can be weighted in order to draw conclusions about the population.

Will the Need-Based Planning of Health Human Resources Currently Undertaken in Several Countries Lead to Excess Supply and Inefficiency? A Comment on Basu and Pak.

Basu and Pak (2014) argue that need-based workforce planning models would not maximize social welfare, and use of need-based models would result in inefficiency. They propose that planning be based on service utilization to incorporate preferences or other socioeconomic factors. We show that the analysis is based on inappropriate considerations of the nature of healthcare demand, a misrepresentation of need-based approaches and misunderstanding publicly funded healthcare system objectives. We explain how current levels of utilization emerge from workload and income interests of providers that underlie utilization-based models and are incompatible with public goals of maximizing health gains. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A pilot randomised controlled trial evaluating mini and conventional implant retained dentures on the function and quality of life of patients with an edentulous mandible.

BACKGROUND: Total tooth loss (edentulism) can be a debilitating condition, impacting on ability to chew, speak and interact with others. The most common treatment is with complete removable dentures, which may be successful, but in the lower jaw, bone resorption that worsens over time makes denture-wearing difficult. Two dental implants in the mandible to retain the lower denture has been advocated as the gold standard of treatment, but has not been universally provided due largely to financial constraints and also patient fear. Mini implants (MI) are cheaper and less invasive than conventional implants (CI), but may not have equivalent longevity. Therefore, it is unknown whether they represent a cost-effective treatment modality over time. The aim of this pilot randomised controlled trial was to assess the feasibility of carrying out a trial on this cohort of patients, and to inform the study design of a large multicentre trial. METHODS: Forty-six patients were randomly allocated to receive either two mini implants or two conventional implants in the mandible to retain their lower dentures. Quality of life (QoL) questionnaires, pain and anxiety scores, and an objective "gummy jelly" chewing test were carried out at multiple timepoints, along with detailed health economics information. Implants were placed one-stage, and an early loading protocol was utilised. Patients were reviewed 8 weeks post-placement, and finally at 6 months. Implant failure, recruitment and retention rates were recorded and analysed. RESULTS: The pilot study demonstrated that it is possible to recruit, randomise and retain edentulous (mainly elderly) patients for an implant trial. We recruited to target and retention rates were acceptable. The large number of questionnaires was onerous for participants to complete, but the distribution of scores and feedback from participants helped inform the choice of primary and secondary outcomes in a full trial. The chewing test was time-consuming and inconsistent. Implant failure rate was low (1/46). The data on indirect costs gathered at every visit was viewed as repetitive and unnecessary, as there was little or no change between visits. CONCLUSIONS: The pilot study has shown that acceptable recruitment and retention rates are achievable in this population of patients for this intervention. The results provide valuable information for selection of outcome variables and sample size calculations for future trials. TRIAL REGISTRATION: (ISRCTN): 87342238 Trial registration date: 05/07/2013.

Socioeconomic disparities in orthodontic treatment outcomes and expenditure on orthodontics in England's state-funded National Health Service: a retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to assess whether there are potential areas for efficiency improvements in the National Health Service (NHS) orthodontic service in North West England and to assess the socioeconomic status (SES)-related equity of the outcomes achieved by the NHS. METHODS: The study involved a retrospective analysis of 2008-2012 administrative data, and the study population comprised patients aged ≥10 who started NHS primary care orthodontic treatment in North West England in 2008. The proportions of treatments that were discontinued early and ended with residual need (based on post-treatment Index of Orthodontic Treatment Need [IOTN] scores that met or exceeded the NHS eligibility threshold of 3.6) and the associated NHS expenditure were calculated. In addition, the associations with SES were investigated using linear probability models. RESULTS: We found that 7.6% of treatments resulted in discontinuation (which was associated with an NHS annual expenditure of £2.3 m), and a further 19.4% (£5.9 m) had a missing outcome record. Furthermore, 5.2% of treatments resulted in residual need (£1.6 m), and a further 38.3% (£11.6 m) had missing IOTN data (due to either a missing outcome record or an incomplete IOTN outcome field in the record), which led to an annual NHS expenditure of £13.2 m (44% of the total expenditure) on treatments that are a potential source of inefficiency. Compared to the patients in the highest SES group, those in the lower SES groups were more likely both to discontinue treatment and to have residual need on treatment completion. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial inefficiencies were evident in the NHS orthodontic service, with 7.6% of treatments ending in discontinuation (£2.3 m) and 5.2% ending with residual need (£1.6 m). Over a third of cases had unreported IOTN outcome scores, which highlights the need to improve the outcome monitoring systems. In addition, the SES gradients indicate inequity in the orthodontic outcomes, with children from disadvantaged communities having poorer outcomes compared to their more affluent peers.

Associations between Extending Access to Primary Care and Emergency Department Visits: A Difference-In-Differences Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Health services across the world increasingly face pressures on the use of expensive hospital services. Better organisation and delivery of primary care has the potential to manage demand and reduce costs for hospital services, but routine primary care services are not open during evenings and weekends. Extended access (evening and weekend opening) is hypothesized to reduce pressure on hospital services from emergency department visits. However, the existing evidence-base is weak, largely focused on emergency out-of-hours services, and analysed using a before-and after-methodology without effective comparators. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Throughout 2014, 56 primary care practices (346,024 patients) in Greater Manchester, England, offered 7-day extended access, compared with 469 primary care practices (2,596,330 patients) providing routine access. Extended access included evening and weekend opening and served both urgent and routine appointments. To assess the effects of extended primary care access on hospital services, we apply a difference-in-differences analysis using hospital administrative data from 2011 to 2014. Propensity score matching techniques were used to match practices without extended access to practices with extended access. Differences in the change in "minor" patient-initiated emergency department visits per 1,000 population were compared between practices with and without extended access. Populations registered to primary care practices with extended access demonstrated a 26.4% relative reduction (compared to practices without extended access) in patient-initiated emergency department visits for "minor" problems (95% CI -38.6% to -14.2%, absolute difference: -10,933 per year, 95% CI -15,995 to -5,866), and a 26.6% (95% CI -39.2% to -14.1%) relative reduction in costs of patient-initiated visits to emergency departments for minor problems (absolute difference: -£767,976, -£1,130,767 to -£405,184). There was an insignificant relative reduction of 3.1% in total emergency department visits (95% CI -6.4% to 0.2%). Our results were robust to several sensitivity checks. A lack of detailed cost reporting of the running costs of extended access and an inability to capture health outcomes and other health service impacts constrain the study from assessing the full cost-effectiveness of extended access to primary care. CONCLUSIONS: The study found that extending access was associated with a reduction in emergency department visits in the first 12 months. The results of the research have already informed the decision by National Health Service England to extend primary care access across Greater Manchester from 2016. However, further evidence is needed to understand whether extending primary care access is cost-effective and sustainable.

The CATFISH study protocol: an evaluation of a water fluoridation scheme.

BACKGROUND: Tooth decay is the commonest disease of childhood. We have known for over 90 years that fluoride can prevent tooth decay; it is present in nearly all toothpastes and can be provided in mouthwashes, gels and varnishes. The oldest method of applying fluoride is via the water supply at a concentration of 1 part per million. The two most important reviews of water fluoridation in the United Kingdom (the York Review and MRC Report on water fluoridation and health) concluded that whilst there was evidence to suggest water fluoridation provided a benefit in caries reduction, there was a need to improve the evidence base in several areas. METHODS/DESIGN: This study will use a natural experiment to assess the incidence of caries in two geographical areas, one in which the water supply is returned to being fluoridated following a discontinuation of fluoridation and one that continues to have a non-fluoridated water supply. The oral health of two discrete study populations will be evaluated - those born 9 months after the water fluoridation was introduced, and those who were in their 1st year of school after the introduction of fluoridated water. Both populations will be followed prospectively for 5 years using a census approach in the exposed group along with matched numbers recruitment in a non-exposed control. Parents of the younger cohort will complete questionnaires every 6 months with child clinical examination at ages 3 and 5, whilst the older cohort will have clinical examinations only, at approximately 5, 7 and 11 years old. DISCUSSION: This project provides a unique opportunity to conduct a high quality evaluation of the reintroduction of a water fluoridation scheme, which satisfies the inclusion criteria stipulated by the York systematic review and can address the design issues identified in the MRC report. The research will make a major contribution to the understanding of the costs and effects of water fluoridation in the UK in the 21st Century. Its findings will help inform UK policy on this important public health intervention and may have a significant impact on public health policy in other developed countries. There is currently true equipoise in relation to the effectiveness of water fluoridation in contemporary populations and while the biological plausibility is well established, there is a need to examine impact on the changing epidemiological status of dental decay.

What Are the Economic Arguments for Mandating LGBT+ Health Training for Healthcare Providers? An Economic Evaluation of the Impacts of LGBT+ Health Training on Cervical Screening.

Background: Equitable access to healthcare is a priority of many healthcare systems, aiming to ensure access is driven by need and not minority groups such as those defined by sexual orientation. However, there are healthcare areas where inequity in access across sexual orientation groups is found that are not justified based on need. Mandated LGBTQ+-specific training of the healthcare workforce may help address some barriers of access for these groups. The study aims to understand the potential economic implications for mandated LGBTQ+-specific healthcare training on the healthcare system in England, UK to inform commissioning of training provision. Methods: Cervical cancer screening was used as an exemplar case where there appears to be inequity in access for different sexual orientation groups. A decision model was developed and analysed that considered the impacts of greater uptake of screening for lesbian and bisexual women due to LGBTQ+ training. Costs took the perspective of the healthcare system and outcomes modelled were cancer cases averted in a timeframe of 5 years. Results: Based on cervical cancer screening alone, where training costs are fully attributed to this service, training would likely result in fewer cancer cases detected in the lesbian and bisexual populations, though this comes at a modest increase in healthcare sector costs, with this increase largely reflecting a greater volume of screens. Training costs do not appear to be a major component of the cost implications. Conclusions: In resource-constrained systems with increasing pressures for efficiency savings, the opportunity cost of delivering training is a realistic component of the commissioning decision. The findings in this paper provide a signal that mandated LGBTQ+ training in healthcare could lead to potentially greater outcomes and in breaking down barriers of access and could also enable the healthcare system to provide more equitable access to healthcare.

Deprivation effects on length of stay and death of hospitalised COVID-19 patients in Greater Manchester.

Introduction: The World Health Organisation declared a global pandemic in March 2020. The impact of COVID-19 has not been felt equally by all regions and sections of society. The extent to which socio-demographic and deprivation factors have adversely impacted on outcomes is of concern to those looking to 'level-up' and decrease widening health inequalities. Objectives: In this paper we investigate the impact of deprivation on the outcomes for hospitalised COVID-19 patients in Greater Manchester during the first wave of the pandemic in the UK (30/12/19-2/1/21), controlling for proven risk factors from elsewhere in the literature. Methods: We fitted Negative Binomial and logistic regression models to NHS administrative data to investigate death from COVID in hospital and length of stay for surviving patients in a sample of adult patients admitted within Greater Manchester (N = 10,372, spell admission start dates from 30/12/2019 to 02/01/2021 inclusive). Results: Deprivation was associated with death risk for hospitalised patients but not with length of stay. Male sex, co-morbidities and older age was associated with higher death risk. Male sex and co-morbidities were associated with increased length of stay. Black and other ethnicities stayed longer in hospital than White and Asian patients. Period effects were detected in both models with death risk reducing over time, but the length of stay increasing. Conclusion: Deprivation is important for death risk; however, the picture is complex, and the results of this analysis suggest that the reported COVID related mortality and deprivation linked reductions in life expectancy, may have occurred in the community, rather than in acute settings. Highlights: Older age and male sex are predictive of longer hospital stays and higher death risk for hospitalised cases in this analysis.Deprivation is associated with death risk but not length of stay for hospitalised patients.Ethnicity is associated with length of stay, but not with death risk.There is a social gradient in health, but these data would suggest that once in the care of an NHS hospital in an acute health episode, outcomes are more equal.

Factors affecting the experience of joined-up, continuous primary care in the absence of relational continuity: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: There is an international trend towards the at-scale provision of primary care services, with such services often provided in different settings by a clinician unfamiliar to the patient. It is often assumed that, in the absence of relational continuity, any competent clinician can deliver joined-up, continuous care if they have access to clinical notes. AIM: To explore the factors that affect the potential for providing joined-up, continuous care in a system where care is delivered away from a patient's regular practice, by a different organisation and set of staff. DESIGN AND SETTING: Case studies of two extended-access providers in the north of England. METHOD: Case studies were carried out between September 2021 and January 2022 in two sites. Data collected included observations of patient-healthcare professional interactions, interviews with staff and patients, and documentation. Analysis took place using a constant comparison approach. Data were coded. A model of the factors affecting continuity was constructed. RESULTS: The potential for joined-up, continuous care appears dependent on staff, patient, and system factors. This includes diverse elements such as the attitude of clinicians to care coordination and the ability of an organisation to retain staff. CONCLUSION: Healthcare systems increasingly rely on the assumption that any competent clinician can deliver joined-up, continuous care if they have access to clinical notes. This appears not to be the case. This study presents a model of factors affecting the patient's experience of continuity. The model needs validating in in-hours general practice and other settings.

Is Economic Evaluation and Care Commissioning Focused on Achieving the Same Outcomes? Resource-Allocation Considerations and Challenges Using England as a Case Study.

Commissioning describes the process of contracting appropriate care services to address pre-identified needs through pre-agreed payment structures. Outcomes-based commissioning (i.e., paying services for pre-agreed outcomes) shares a common goal with economic evaluation: achieving value for money for relevant outcomes (e.g., health) achieved from a finite budget. We describe considerations and challenges as to the practical role of relevant outcomes for evaluation and commissioning, seeking to bridge a gap between economic evaluation evidence and care commissioning. We describe conceptual (e.g., what are 'relevant' outcomes) alongside practical considerations (e.g., quantifying and using relevant endpoint or surrogate outcomes) and pertinent issues when linking outcomes to commissioning-based payment mechanisms, using England as a case study. Economic evaluation often focuses on a single endpoint health-focused maximand, e.g., quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), whereas commissioning often focuses on activity-based surrogate outcomes (e.g., health monitoring), as easier-to-measure key performance indicators that are more acceptable (e.g., by clinicians) and amenable to being linked with payment structures. However, payments linked to endpoint and/or surrogate outcomes can lead to market inefficiencies; for example, when surrogates do not have the intended causal effect on endpoint outcomes or when service activity focuses on only people who can achieve prespecified payment-linked outcomes. Accounting for and explaining direct links from commissioners' payment structures to surrogate and then endpoint economic outcomes is a vital step to bridging a gap between economic evaluation approaches and commissioning. Decision-analytic models could aid this but they must be designed to account for relevant surrogate and endpoint outcomes, the payments assigned to such outcomes, and their interaction with the system commissioners purport to influence.

Economic evaluation of a water fluoridation scheme in Cumbria, UK.

OBJECTIVES: The addition of fluoride to community drinking water supplies has been a long-standing public health intervention to improve dental health. However, the evidence of cost-effectiveness in the UK currently lacks a contemporary focus, being limited to a period with higher incidence of caries. A water fluoridation scheme in West Cumbria, United Kingdom, provided a unique opportunity to study the contemporary impact of water fluoridation. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of water fluoridation over a 5-6 years follow-up period in two distinct cohorts: children exposed to water fluoridation in utero and those exposed from the age of 5. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness was summarized employing incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER, cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained). Costs included those from the National Health Service (NHS) and local authority perspective, encompassing capital and running costs of water fluoridation, as well as NHS dental activity. The measure of health benefit was the QALY, with utility determined using the Child Health Utility 9-Dimension questionnaire. To account for uncertainty, estimates of net cost and outcomes were bootstrapped (10 000 bootstraps) to generate cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and sensitivity analysis performed with alternative specifications. RESULTS: There were 306 participants in the birth cohort (189 and 117 in the non-fluoridated and fluoridated groups, respectively) and 271 in the older school cohort (159 and 112, respectively). In both cohorts, there was evidence of small gains in QALYs for the fluoridated group compared to the non-fluoridated group and reductions in NHS dental service cost that exceeded the cost of fluoridation. For both cohorts and across all sensitivity analyses, there were high probabilities (>62%) of water fluoridation being cost-effective with a willingness to pay threshold of £20 000 per QALY. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis provides current economic evidence that water fluoridation is likely to be cost-effective. The findings contribute valuable contemporary evidence in support of the economic viability of water fluoridation scheme.

The CATFISH study: An evaluation of a water fluoridation program in Cumbria, UK.

OBJECTIVES: The objective was to assess the effectiveness of a Water Fluoridation program on a contemporary population of children. METHODS: The study used a longitudinal prospective cohort design. In Cumbria, England, two groups of children were recruited and observed over a period of 5-6 years. The Birth Cohort consisted of families recruited from two hospitals in Cumbria where children were conceived after water fluoridation was reintroduced. The systemic and topical effects of community water fluoridation were evaluated in the Birth Cohort. The Older Cohort were approximately 5 years old and recruited from primary schools in Cumbria, shortly after water fluoridation was reintroduced. The predominantly topical effects of fluoridated water were evaluated in the Older Cohort. The primary outcome was the proportion of children with clinical evidence of caries experience in their primary (Birth Cohort) or permanent teeth (Older Cohort). Unadjusted and adjusted regression models were used for analysis. RESULTS: The final clinical examinations for the Birth Cohort involved 1444 participants (mean age 4.8 years), where 17.4% of children in the intervention group were found to have caries experience, compared to 21.4% in the control group. A beneficial effect of water fluoridation was observed adjusting for deprivation (a socioeconomic measure), sex, and age, (adjusted odds ratio 0.74 95% CI 0.55 to 0.98). The final Older Cohort clinical examinations involved 1192 participants (mean age 10.8 years) where 19.1% of children in the intervention group were found to have caries experience compared to 21.9% in the control group (adjusted odds ratio 0.80, 95% CI 0.58 to 1.09). For both the Birth Cohort and Older Cohort there was evidence of a beneficial effect on dmft/DMFT count (IRR 0.61, 95% CI 0.44, 0.86) and (IRR 0.69, 95% CI 0.52, 0.93) respectively. No conclusive proof was found to indicate that the effectiveness of water fluoridation differed across area deprivation quintiles. CONCLUSIONS: In the contemporary context of lower caries levels and widespread use of fluoride toothpaste, the impact of water fluoridation on the prevalence of caries was smaller than previous studies have reported. It is important to consider the clinical importance of the absolute reduction in caries prevalence against the use of other dental caries preventive measures.

Has the NHS national extended access scheme delivered its policy aims? A case study of two large scale extended access providers.

OBJECTIVES: In 2018, NHS England mandated that all patients in England should be able to access general practice services outside of ordinary hours. While some patients would access additional hours at their own practice, others would need supra-practice level provision - that is, they would be seen in a different location and by a different care team. The policy aim was to enhance patient access to care, with a particular focus on those who work during the day. This study examines (a) how supra-practice level provision of extended access appointments for general medical problems are operationalised and (b) whether the aims of the policy are being met. METHODS: This study presents qualitative comparative case studies of two contrasting service providers offering extended access. The data collected included 30 hours of clinician-patient observations, 25 interviews with staff, managers, and commissioners, 20 interviews with patients, organisational protocols/documentation, and routinely collected appointment data. Thematic analysis ran concurrently with data gathering and facilitated the iterative adaptation of data collection. RESULTS: Three cross-cutting themes were identified: extended access is being used to bolster a struggling primary care system, extended access provides a different service to in-hours general practice, and it is difficult for extended access to provide seamless care. CONCLUSIONS: Supra-practice access models can provide effective care for most patients with straightforward issues. When ongoing management of complex problems is required, this model of patient care can be problematic.

Could diabetes prevention programmes result in the widening of sociodemographic inequalities in type 2 diabetes? Comparison of survey and administrative data for England.

BACKGROUND: The NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (DPP) in England is a behavioural intervention for preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among people with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia (NDH). How this programme affects inequalities by age, sex, limiting illnesses or disability, ethnicity or deprivation is not known. METHODS: We used multinomial and binary logistic regression models to compare whether the population with NDH at different stages of the programme are representative of the population with NDH: stages include (1) prevalence of NDH (using survey data from UK Household Longitudinal Study (n=794) and Health Survey for England (n=1383)); (2) identification in primary care and offer of programme (using administrative data from the National Diabetes Audit (n=1 267 350)) and (3) programme participation (using programme provider records (n=98 024)). RESULTS: Predicted probabilities drawn from the regressions with demographics as each outcome and dataset identifier as predictors showed that younger adults (aged under 40) (4% of the population with NDH (95% CI 2.4% to 6.5%)) and older adults (aged 80 and above) (12% (95% CI 9.5% to 14.2%)) were slightly under-represented among programme participants (2% (95% CI 1.8% to 2.2%) and 8% (95% CI 7.8% to 8.2%) of programme participants, respectively). People living in deprived areas were under-represented in eight sessions (14% (95% CI 13.7% to 14.4%) vs 20% (95% CI 16.4% to 23.6%) in the general population). Ethnic minorities were over-represented among offers (35% (95% CI 35.1% to 35.6%) vs 13% (95% CI 9.1% to 16.4%) in general population), though the proportion dropped at the programme completion stage (19% (95% CI 18.5% to 19.5%)). CONCLUSION: The DPP has the potential to reduce ethnic inequalities, but may widen socioeconomic, age and limiting illness or disability-related inequalities in T2DM. While ethnic minority groups are over-represented at the identification and offer stages, efforts are required to support completion of the programme. Programme providers should target under-represented groups to ensure equitable access and narrow inequalities in T2DM.