Seabirds enhance coral reef productivity and functioning in the absence of invasive rats.

Biotic connectivity between ecosystems can provide major transport of organic matter and nutrients, influencing ecosystem structure and productivity1, yet the implications are poorly understood owing to human disruptions of natural flows2. When abundant, seabirds feeding in the open ocean transport large quantities of nutrients onto islands, enhancing the productivity of island fauna and flora3,4. Whether leaching of these nutrients back into the sea influences the productivity, structure and functioning of adjacent coral reef ecosystems is not known. Here we address this question using a rare natural experiment in the Chagos Archipelago, in which some islands are rat-infested and others are rat-free. We found that seabird densities and nitrogen deposition rates are 760 and 251 times higher, respectively, on islands where humans have not introduced rats. Consequently, rat-free islands had substantially higher nitrogen stable isotope (δ15N) values in soils and shrubs, reflecting pelagic nutrient sources. These higher values of δ15N were also apparent in macroalgae, filter-feeding sponges, turf algae and fish on adjacent coral reefs. Herbivorous damselfish on reefs adjacent to the rat-free islands grew faster, and fish communities had higher biomass across trophic feeding groups, with 48% greater overall biomass. Rates of two critical ecosystem functions, grazing and bioerosion, were 3.2 and 3.8 times higher, respectively, adjacent to rat-free islands. Collectively, these results reveal how rat introductions disrupt nutrient flows among pelagic, island and coral reef ecosystems. Thus, rat eradication on oceanic islands should be a high conservation priority as it is likely to benefit terrestrial ecosystems and enhance coral reef productivity and functioning by restoring seabird-derived nutrient subsidies from large areas of ocean.

The future of hyperdiverse tropical ecosystems.

The tropics contain the overwhelming majority of Earth's biodiversity: their terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems hold more than three-quarters of all species, including almost all shallow-water corals and over 90% of terrestrial birds. However, tropical ecosystems are also subject to pervasive and interacting stressors, such as deforestation, overfishing and climate change, and they are set within a socio-economic context that includes growing pressure from an increasingly globalized world, larger and more affluent tropical populations, and weak governance and response capacities. Concerted local, national and international actions are urgently required to prevent a collapse of tropical biodiversity.

Loss of coral reef growth capacity to track future increases in sea level.

Sea-level rise (SLR) is predicted to elevate water depths above coral reefs and to increase coastal wave exposure as ecological degradation limits vertical reef growth, but projections lack data on interactions between local rates of reef growth and sea level rise. Here we calculate the vertical growth potential of more than 200 tropical western Atlantic and Indian Ocean reefs, and compare these against recent and projected rates of SLR under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Although many reefs retain accretion rates close to recent SLR trends, few will have the capacity to track SLR projections under RCP4.5 scenarios without sustained ecological recovery, and under RCP8.5 scenarios most reefs are predicted to experience mean water depth increases of more than 0.5 m by 2100. Coral cover strongly predicts reef capacity to track SLR, but threshold cover levels that will be necessary to prevent submergence are well above those observed on most reefs. Urgent action is thus needed to mitigate climate, sea-level and future ecological changes in order to limit the magnitude of future reef submergence.

Macroalgae exhibit diverse responses to human disturbances on coral reefs.

Scientists and managers rely on indicator taxa such as coral and macroalgal cover to evaluate the effects of human disturbance on coral reefs, often assuming a universally positive relationship between local human disturbance and macroalgae. Despite evidence that macroalgae respond to local stressors in diverse ways, there have been few efforts to evaluate relationships between specific macroalgae taxa and local human-driven disturbance. Using genus-level monitoring data from 1205 sites in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, we assess whether macroalgae percent cover correlates with local human disturbance while accounting for factors that could obscure or confound relationships. Assessing macroalgae at genus level revealed that no genera were positively correlated with all human disturbance metrics. Instead, we found relationships between the division or genera of algae and specific human disturbances that were not detectable when pooling taxa into a single functional category, which is common to many analyses. The convention to use percent cover of macroalgae as an indication of local human disturbance therefore likely obscures signatures of local anthropogenic threats to reefs. Our limited understanding of relationships between human disturbance, macroalgae taxa, and their responses to human disturbances impedes the ability to diagnose and respond appropriately to these threats.

On the Challenges of Identifying Benthic Dominance on Anthropocene Coral Reefs.

The concept of dominance is frequently used to describe changes in rapidly reconfiguring ecosystems, but the definition of dominance can vary widely among studies. Using coral reefs as a model, we use extensive benthic composition data to explore how variability in applying dominance concepts can shape perceptions. We reveal that coral dominance is sensitive to the exclusion of key algal groups and the categorization of other benthic groups, with ramifications for detecting an ecosystem phase shift. For example, ignoring algal turf inflates the dominance of hard and soft corals in the benthic habitats underpinning reef ecosystems. We need a consensus on how dominance concepts are applied so that we can build a more comprehensive understanding of ecosystem shifts across a broad range of aquatic and terrestrial settings. For reefs, we highlight the benefits of comprehensive and inclusive surveys for evaluating and managing the altered ecosystem states that are emerging in the Anthropocene.

Global warming and recurrent mass bleaching of corals.

During 2015-2016, record temperatures triggered a pan-tropical episode of coral bleaching, the third global-scale event since mass bleaching was first documented in the 1980s. Here we examine how and why the severity of recurrent major bleaching events has varied at multiple scales, using aerial and underwater surveys of Australian reefs combined with satellite-derived sea surface temperatures. The distinctive geographic footprints of recurrent bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef in 1998, 2002 and 2016 were determined by the spatial pattern of sea temperatures in each year. Water quality and fishing pressure had minimal effect on the unprecedented bleaching in 2016, suggesting that local protection of reefs affords little or no resistance to extreme heat. Similarly, past exposure to bleaching in 1998 and 2002 did not lessen the severity of bleaching in 2016. Consequently, immediate global action to curb future warming is essential to secure a future for coral reefs.

Research priorities for the sustainability of coral-rich western Pacific seascapes.

Nearly a billion people depend on tropical seascapes. The need to ensure sustainable use of these vital areas is recognised, as one of 17 policy commitments made by world leaders, in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 ('Life below Water') of the United Nations. SDG 14 seeks to secure marine sustainability by 2030. In a time of increasing social-ecological unpredictability and risk, scientists and policymakers working towards SDG 14 in the Asia-Pacific region need to know: (1) How are seascapes changing? (2) What can global society do about these changes? and (3) How can science and society together achieve sustainable seascape futures? Through a horizon scan, we identified nine emerging research priorities that clarify potential research contributions to marine sustainability in locations with high coral reef abundance. They include research on seascape geological and biological evolution and adaptation; elucidating drivers and mechanisms of change; understanding how seascape functions and services are produced, and how people depend on them; costs, benefits, and trade-offs to people in changing seascapes; improving seascape technologies and practices; learning to govern and manage seascapes for all; sustainable use, justice, and human well-being; bridging communities and epistemologies for innovative, equitable, and scale-crossing solutions; and informing resilient seascape futures through modelling and synthesis. Researchers can contribute to the sustainability of tropical seascapes by co-developing transdisciplinary understandings of people and ecosystems, emphasising the importance of equity and justice, and improving knowledge of key cross-scale and cross-level processes, feedbacks, and thresholds.

Seabird diversity and biomass enhance cross-ecosystem nutrient subsidies.

Mobile consumers are key vectors of cross-ecosystem nutrients, yet have experienced population declines which threaten their ability to fill this role. Despite their importance and vulnerability, there is little information on how consumer biodiversity, in addition to biomass, influences the magnitude of nutrient subsidies. Here, we show that both biomass and diversity of seabirds enhanced the provisioning of nutrients across tropical islands and coral reefs, but their relative influence varied across systems. Seabird biomass was particularly important for terrestrial and near-shore subsidies and enhancing fish biomass, while seabird diversity was associated with nutrient subsidies further offshore. The positive effects of diversity were likely driven by high functional complementarity among seabird species in traits related to nutrient storage and provisioning. However, introduced rats and non-native vegetation reduced seabird biomass and diversity, with rats having a stronger effect on biomass and vegetation having a stronger effect on diversity. Accordingly, the restoration of cross-ecosystem nutrient flows provided by seabirds will likely be most successful when both stressors are removed, thus protecting both high biomass and diversity. Recognizing the importance of mobile consumer diversity and biomass, and their underlying drivers, is a necessary step to conserving these species and the ecosystem functions they provide.

Bright spots among the world's coral reefs.

Ongoing declines in the structure and function of the world's coral reefs require novel approaches to sustain these ecosystems and the millions of people who depend on them3. A presently unexplored approach that draws on theory and practice in human health and rural development is to systematically identify and learn from the 'outliers'­places where ecosystems are substantially better ('bright spots') or worse ('dark spots') than expected, given the environmental conditions and socioeconomic drivers they are exposed to. Here we compile data from more than 2,500 reefs worldwide and develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to generate expectations of how standing stocks of reef fish biomass are related to 18 socioeconomic drivers and environmental conditions. We identify 15 bright spots and 35 dark spots among our global survey of coral reefs, defined as sites that have biomass levels more than two standard deviations from expectations. Importantly, bright spots are not simply comprised of remote areas with low fishing pressure; they include localities where human populations and use of ecosystem resources is high, potentially providing insights into how communities have successfully confronted strong drivers of change. Conversely, dark spots are not necessarily the sites with the lowest absolute biomass and even include some remote, uninhabited locations often considered near pristine6. We surveyed local experts about social, institutional, and environmental conditions at these sites to reveal that bright spots are characterized by strong sociocultural institutions such as customary taboos and marine tenure, high levels of local engagement in management, high dependence on marine resources, and beneficial environmental conditions such as deep-water refuges. Alternatively, dark spots are characterized by intensive capture and storage technology and a recent history of environmental shocks. Our results suggest that investments in strengthening fisheries governance, particularly aspects such as participation and property rights, could facilitate innovative conservation actions that help communities defy expectations of global reef degradation.

Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs.

Climate-induced coral bleaching is among the greatest current threats to coral reefs, causing widespread loss of live coral cover. Conditions under which reefs bounce back from bleaching events or shift from coral to algal dominance are unknown, making it difficult to predict and plan for differing reef responses under climate change. Here we document and predict long-term reef responses to a major climate-induced coral bleaching event that caused unprecedented region-wide mortality of Indo-Pacific corals. Following loss of >90% live coral cover, 12 of 21 reefs recovered towards pre-disturbance live coral states, while nine reefs underwent regime shifts to fleshy macroalgae. Functional diversity of associated reef fish communities shifted substantially following bleaching, returning towards pre-disturbance structure on recovering reefs, while becoming progressively altered on regime shifting reefs. We identified threshold values for a range of factors that accurately predicted ecosystem response to the bleaching event. Recovery was favoured when reefs were structurally complex and in deeper water, when density of juvenile corals and herbivorous fishes was relatively high and when nutrient loads were low. Whether reefs were inside no-take marine reserves had no bearing on ecosystem trajectory. Although conditions governing regime shift or recovery dynamics were diverse, pre-disturbance quantification of simple factors such as structural complexity and water depth accurately predicted ecosystem trajectories. These findings foreshadow the likely divergent but predictable outcomes for reef ecosystems in response to climate change, thus guiding improved management and adaptation.

Recovery potential of the world's coral reef fishes.

Continuing degradation of coral reef ecosystems has generated substantial interest in how management can support reef resilience. Fishing is the primary source of diminished reef function globally, leading to widespread calls for additional marine reserves to recover fish biomass and restore key ecosystem functions. Yet there are no established baselines for determining when these conservation objectives have been met or whether alternative management strategies provide similar ecosystem benefits. Here we establish empirical conservation benchmarks and fish biomass recovery timelines against which coral reefs can be assessed and managed by studying the recovery potential of more than 800 coral reefs along an exploitation gradient. We show that resident reef fish biomass in the absence of fishing (B0) averages ∼1,000 kg ha(-1), and that the vast majority (83%) of fished reefs are missing more than half their expected biomass, with severe consequences for key ecosystem functions such as predation. Given protection from fishing, reef fish biomass has the potential to recover within 35 years on average and less than 60 years when heavily depleted. Notably, alternative fisheries restrictions are largely (64%) successful at maintaining biomass above 50% of B0, sustaining key functions such as herbivory. Our results demonstrate that crucial ecosystem functions can be maintained through a range of fisheries restrictions, allowing coral reef managers to develop recovery plans that meet conservation and livelihood objectives in areas where marine reserves are not socially or politically feasible solutions.

Gravity of human impacts mediates coral reef conservation gains.

Coral reefs provide ecosystem goods and services for millions of people in the tropics, but reef conditions are declining worldwide. Effective solutions to the crisis facing coral reefs depend in part on understanding the context under which different types of conservation benefits can be maximized. Our global analysis of nearly 1,800 tropical reefs reveals how the intensity of human impacts in the surrounding seascape, measured as a function of human population size and accessibility to reefs ("gravity"), diminishes the effectiveness of marine reserves at sustaining reef fish biomass and the presence of top predators, even where compliance with reserve rules is high. Critically, fish biomass in high-compliance marine reserves located where human impacts were intensive tended to be less than a quarter that of reserves where human impacts were low. Similarly, the probability of encountering top predators on reefs with high human impacts was close to zero, even in high-compliance marine reserves. However, we find that the relative difference between openly fished sites and reserves (what we refer to as conservation gains) are highest for fish biomass (excluding predators) where human impacts are moderate and for top predators where human impacts are low. Our results illustrate critical ecological trade-offs in meeting key conservation objectives: reserves placed where there are moderate-to-high human impacts can provide substantial conservation gains for fish biomass, yet they are unlikely to support key ecosystem functions like higher-order predation, which is more prevalent in reserve locations with low human impacts.

Early recovery dynamics of turbid coral reefs after recurring bleaching events.

The worlds' coral reefs are declining due to the combined effects of natural disturbances and anthropogenic pressures including thermal coral bleaching associated with global climate change. Nearshore corals are receiving increased anthropogenic stress from coastal development and nutrient run-off. Considering forecast increases in global temperatures, greater understanding of drivers of recovery on nearshore coral reefs following widespread bleaching events is required to inform management of local stressors. The west Pilbara coral reefs, with cross-shelf turbidity gradients coupled with a large nearby dredging program and recent history of repeated coral bleaching due to heat stress, represent an opportune location to study recovery from multiple disturbances. Mean coral cover at west Pilbara reefs was monitored from 2009 to 2018 and declined from 45% in 2009 to 5% in 2014 following three heat waves. Recruitment and juvenile abundance of corals were monitored from 2014 to 2018 and were combined with biological and physical data to identify which variables enhanced or hindered early-stage coral recovery of all hard corals and separately for the acroporids, the genera principally responsible for recovery in the short-term (<7 years). From 2014 to 2018, coral cover increased from 5 to 10% but recovery varied widely among sites (0-13%). Hard coral cover typically recovered most at shallower sites that had higher abundance of herbivorous fish, less macroalgae, and lower turbidity. Similarly, acroporid corals recovered most at sites with lower turbidity and macroalgal cover. Juvenile acroporid densities were a good indicator of recovery at least two years after they were recorded. However, recruitment to settlement tiles was not a good predictor of total coral or acroporid recovery. This study shows that coral recovery can be slower in areas of high turbidity and the rate may be reduced by local pressures, such as dredging. Management should focus on improving or maintaining local water quality to increase the likelihood of coral recovery under climate stress. Further, in turbid environments, juvenile coral density predicts early coral recovery better than recruits on tiles and may be a more cost-effective technique for monitoring recovery potential.

Seabird nutrient subsidies alter patterns of algal abundance and fish biomass on coral reefs following a bleaching event.

Cross-ecosystem nutrient subsidies play a key role in the structure and dynamics of recipient communities, but human activities are disrupting these links. Because nutrient subsidies may also enhance community stability, the effects of losing these inputs may be exacerbated in the face of increasing climate-related disturbances. Nutrients from seabirds nesting on oceanic islands enhance the productivity and functioning of adjacent coral reefs, but it is unknown whether these subsidies affect the response of coral reefs to mass bleaching events or whether the benefits of these nutrients persist following bleaching. To answer these questions, we surveyed benthic organisms and fishes around islands with seabirds and nearby islands without seabirds due to the presence of invasive rats. Surveys were conducted in the Chagos Archipelago, Indian Ocean, immediately before the 2015-2016 mass bleaching event and, in 2018, two years following the bleaching event. Regardless of the presence of seabirds, relative coral cover declined by 32%. However, there was a post-bleaching shift in benthic community structure around islands with seabirds, which did not occur around islands with invasive rats, characterized by increases in two types of calcareous algae (crustose coralline algae [CCA] and Halimeda spp.). All feeding groups of fishes were positively affected by seabirds, but only herbivores and piscivores were unaffected by the bleaching event and sustained the greatest difference in biomass between islands with seabirds versus those with invasive rats. By contrast, corallivores and planktivores, both of which are coral-dependent, experienced the greatest losses following bleaching. Even though seabird nutrients did not enhance community-wide resistance to bleaching, they may still promote recovery of these reefs through their positive influence on CCA and herbivorous fishes. More broadly, the maintenance of nutrient subsidies, via strategies including eradication of invasive predators, may be important in shaping the response of ecological communities to global climate change.

Thermal stress induces persistently altered coral reef fish assemblages.

Ecological communities are reorganizing in response to warming temperatures. For continuous ocean habitats this reorganization is characterized by large-scale species redistribution, but for tropical discontinuous habitats such as coral reefs, spatial isolation coupled with strong habitat dependence of fish species imply that turnover and local extinctions are more significant mechanisms. In these systems, transient marine heatwaves are causing coral bleaching and profoundly altering habitat structure, yet despite severe bleaching events becoming more frequent and projections indicating annual severe bleaching by the 2050s at most reefs, long-term effects on the diversity and structure of fish assemblages remain unclear. Using a 23-year time series spanning a thermal stress event, we describe and model structural changes and recovery trajectories of fish communities after mass bleaching. Communities changed fundamentally, with the new emergent communities dominated by herbivores and persisting for >15 years, a period exceeding realized and projected intervals between thermal stress events on coral reefs. Reefs which shifted to macroalgal states had the lowest species richness and highest compositional dissimilarity, whereas reefs where live coral recovered exceeded prebleaching fish richness, but remained dissimilar to prebleaching compositions. Given realized and projected frequencies of bleaching events, our results show that fish communities historically associated with coral reefs will not re-establish, requiring substantial adaptation by managers and resource users.

Trait structure and redundancy determine sensitivity to disturbance in marine fish communities.

Trait diversity is believed to influence ecosystem dynamics through links between organismal traits and ecosystem processes. Theory predicts that key traits and high trait redundancy-large species richness and abundance supporting the same traits-can buffer communities against environmental disturbances. While experiments and data from simple ecological systems lend support, large-scale evidence from diverse, natural systems under major disturbance is lacking. Here, using long-term data from both temperate (English Channel) and tropical (Seychelles Islands) fishes, we show that sensitivity to disturbance depends on communities' initial trait structure and initial trait redundancy. In both ecosystems, we found that increasing dominance by climatically vulnerable traits (e.g., small, fast-growing pelagics/corallivores) rendered fish communities more sensitive to environmental change, while communities with higher trait redundancy were more resistant. To our knowledge, this is the first study demonstrating the influence of trait structure and redundancy on community sensitivity over large temporal and spatial scales in natural systems. Our results exemplify a consistent link between biological structure and community sensitivity that may be transferable across ecosystems and taxa and could help anticipate future disturbance impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning.

Ecosystem regime shifts disrupt trophic structure.

Regime shifts between alternative stable ecosystem states are becoming commonplace due to the combined effects of local stressors and global climate change. Alternative states are characterized as substantially different in form and function from pre-disturbance states, disrupting the delivery of ecosystem services and functions. On coral reefs, regime shifts are typically characterized by a change in the benthic composition from coral to macroalgal dominance. Such fundamental shifts in the benthos are anticipated to impact associated fish communities that are reliant on the reef for food and shelter, yet there is limited understanding of how regime shifts propagate through the fish community over time, relative to initial or recovery conditions. This study addresses this knowledge gap using long-term data of coral reef regime shifts and recovery on Seychelles reefs following the 1998 mass bleaching event. It shows how trophic structure of the reef fish community becomes increasingly dissimilar between alternative reef ecosystem states (regime-shifted vs. recovering) with time since disturbance. Regime-shifted reefs developed a concave trophic structure, with increased biomass in base trophic levels as herbivorous species benefitted from increased algal resources. Mid trophic level species, including specialists such as corallivores, declined with loss of coral habitat, while biomass was retained in upper trophic levels by large-bodied, generalist invertivores. Recovering reefs also experienced an initial decline in mid trophic level biomass, but moved toward a bottom-heavy pyramid shape, with a wide range of feeding groups (e.g., planktivores, corallivores, omnivores) represented at mid trophic levels. Given the importance of coral reef fishes in maintaining the ecological function of coral reef ecosystems and their associated fisheries, understanding the effects of regime shifts on these communities is essential to inform decisions that enhance ecological resilience and economic sustainability.

Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories.

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to the long-term maintenance of coral-dominated tropical ecosystems, and has received considerable attention over the past two decades. Coral bleaching and associated mortality events, which are predicted to become more frequent and intense, can alter the balance of different elements that are responsible for coral reef growth and maintenance. The geomorphic impacts of coral mass mortality have received relatively little attention, particularly questions concerning temporal recovery of reef carbonate production and the factors that promote resilience of reef growth potential. Here, we track the biological carbonate budgets of inner Seychelles reefs from 1994 to 2014, spanning the 1998 global bleaching event when these reefs lost more than 90% of coral cover. All 21 reefs had positive budgets in 1994, but in 2005 budgets were predominantly negative. By 2014, carbonate budgets on seven reefs were comparable with 1994, but on all reefs where an ecological regime shift to macroalgal dominance occurred, budgets remained negative through 2014. Reefs with higher massive coral cover, lower macroalgae cover and lower excavating parrotfish biomass in 1994 were more likely to have positive budgets post-bleaching. If mortality of corals from the 2016 bleaching event is as severe as that of 1998, our predictions based on past trends would suggest that six of eight reefs with positive budgets in 2014 would still have positive budgets by 2030. Our results highlight that reef accretion and framework maintenance cannot be assumed from the ecological state alone, and that managers should focus on conserving aspects of coral reefs that support resilient carbonate budgets.

Fish wariness is a more sensitive indicator to changes in fishing pressure than abundance, length or biomass.

Identifying the most sensitive indicators to changes in fishing pressure is important for accurately detecting impacts. Biomass is thought to be more sensitive than abundance and length, while the wariness of fishes is emerging as a new metric. Periodically harvested closures (PHCs) that involve the opening and closing of an area to fishing are the most common form of fisheries management in the western Pacific. The opening of PHCs to fishing provides a unique opportunity to compare the sensitivity of metrics, such as abundance, length, biomass and wariness, to changes in fishing pressure. Diver-operated stereo video (stereo-DOV) provides data on fish behavior (using a proxy for wariness, minimum approach distance) simultaneous to abundance and length estimates. We assessed the impact of PHC protection and harvesting on the abundance, length, biomass, and wariness of target species using stereo-DOVs. This allowed a comparison of the sensitivity of these metrics to changes in fishing pressure across four PHCs in Fiji, where spearfishing and fish drives are common. Before PHCs were opened to fishing they consistently decreased the wariness of targeted species but were less likely to increase abundance, length, or biomass. Pulse harvesting of PHCs resulted in a rapid increase in the wariness of fishes but inconsistent impacts across the other metrics. Our results suggest that fish wariness is the most sensitive indicator of fishing pressure, followed by biomass, length, and abundance. The collection of behavioral data simultaneously with abundance, length, and biomass estimates using stereo-DOVs offers a cost-effective indicator of protection or rapid increases in fishing pressure. Stereo-DOVs can rapidly provide large amounts of behavioral data from monitoring programs historically focused on estimating abundance and length of fishes, which is not feasible with visual methods.

Influence of nursery microhabitats on the future abundance of a coral reef fish.

Species habitat associations are often complex, making it difficult to assess their influence on populations. Among coral reef fishes, habitat requirements vary among species and with ontogeny, but the relative importance of nursery and adult-preferred habitats on future abundances remain unclear. Moreover, adult populations may be influenced by recruitment of juveniles and assessments of habitat importance should consider relative effects of juvenile abundance. We conducted surveys across 16 sites and 200 km of reef to identify the microhabitat preferences of juveniles, sub-adults and adults of the damselfish Pomacentrus moluccensis Microhabitat preferences at different life-history stages were then combined with 6 years of juvenile abundance and microhabitat availability data to show that the availability of preferred juvenile microhabitat (corymbose corals) at the time of settlement was a strong predictor of future sub-adult and adult abundance. However, the influence of nursery microhabitats on future population size differed spatially and at some locations abundance of juveniles and adult microhabitat (branching corals) were better predictors of local populations. Our results demonstrate that while juvenile microhabitats are important nurseries, the abundance of coral-dependent fishes is not solely dependent on these microhabitats, especially when microhabitats are readily available or following large influxes of juveniles.