Association of Obesity, Diabetes, and Risk of Tuberculosis: Two Population-Based Cohorts.

Background: Mounting data have revealed that body mass index (BMI) is inversely associated with risk of active tuberculosis. The inverse association presents a "paradox" with regard to diabetes, because obesity is a major determinant of diabetes, and diabetes is a well-known risk factor for tuberculosis. Methods: We conducted 2 population-based cohort studies involving 167392 participants. The main exposure was BMI and diabetes ascertained at baseline. Occurrence of incident tuberculosis was ascertained from Taiwan's National Tuberculosis Registry. We conducted a causal mediation analysis and a joint effects analysis to characterize the relationship between BMI, diabetes, and tuberculosis. Results: During a median of >7 years of follow-up, 491 individuals developed incident tuberculosis. Compared with normal-weight individuals, obese individuals (>30 kg/m2) had a 67% (95% confidence interval [CI], -3% to -90%) and 64% (31%-81%) reduction in tuberculosis hazard in the 2 cohorts. In the causal mediation analysis, obesity had a harmful effect on tuberculosis mediated through diabetes (0.8% and 2.7% increased odds in the 2 cohorts, respectively) but had a strongly protective effect not mediated through diabetes (72% and 67% decreased odds, respectively). Individuals who were simultaneously obese and diabetic had a lower but statistically insignificant risk of tuberculosis (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.30; 95% CI, .08-1.22) compared with nondiabetic normal-weight individuals. Conclusions: Our analyses revealed that the relationship between obesity, diabetes, and risk of tuberculosis was complex and nonlinear. Better understanding of the interplay between host metabolism and tuberculosis immunology may lead to novel therapeutic or preventive strategies.

Diabetes and obesity and risk of pyogenic liver abscess.

Few literatures discussed the relationship of glycemic control and body mass index (BMI) with the risk of pyogenic liver abscess. We conducted a population-based cohort study using participants of a community-based health screening program in Taiwan from 2005 to 2008 (n = 125,865). Information on fasting plasma glucose (FPG), BMI, and other potential risk factors of liver abscess were collected at baseline. Incidence of pyogenic liver abscess was ascertained using inpatient records from the National Health Insurance database. During a median 8.6 years of followed up, 192 incident cases of pyogenic liver abscess were reported. The incidence rate of pyogenic liver abscess was 70.2 and 14.7 per 100,000 in the diabetic and non-diabetic population respectively. In multivariable Cox regression analysis, the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 2.18 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-3.90) in patients with diabetes with good glycemic control (FPG ≤ 130 mg/dl) and 3.34 (95% CI 2.37-4.72) in those with poor glycemic control (FPG > 130 mg/dl), when compared with non-diabetics. In the dose-response analysis, the risk of liver abscess increased monotonically with increasing FPG. After adjusting for diabetes and other comorbidities, overweight (25 ≤ BMI < 30) (adjusted HR: 1.43, 95% CI 1.05-1.95) and obese (BMI ≥ 30) (adjusted HR: 1.75, 95% CI 1.09-2.81) populations had a higher risk of liver abscess when compared to people with normal weight. Diabetes, especially poorly controlled disease, and high BMI were associated with higher risk of pyogenic liver abscess. Improving glycemic control and weight reduction may reduce the risk of developing pyogenic liver abscess.

Feasibility of achieving the 2025 WHO global tuberculosis targets in South Africa, China, and India: a combined analysis of 11 mathematical models.

BACKGROUND: The post-2015 End TB Strategy proposes targets of 50% reduction in tuberculosis incidence and 75% reduction in mortality from tuberculosis by 2025. We aimed to assess whether these targets are feasible in three high-burden countries with contrasting epidemiology and previous programmatic achievements. METHODS: 11 independently developed mathematical models of tuberculosis transmission projected the epidemiological impact of currently available tuberculosis interventions for prevention, diagnosis, and treatment in China, India, and South Africa. Models were calibrated with data on tuberculosis incidence and mortality in 2012. Representatives from national tuberculosis programmes and the advocacy community provided distinct country-specific intervention scenarios, which included screening for symptoms, active case finding, and preventive therapy. FINDINGS: Aggressive scale-up of any single intervention scenario could not achieve the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets in any country. However, the models projected that, in the South Africa national tuberculosis programme scenario, a combination of continuous isoniazid preventive therapy for individuals on antiretroviral therapy, expanded facility-based screening for symptoms of tuberculosis at health centres, and improved tuberculosis care could achieve a 55% reduction in incidence (range 31-62%) and a 72% reduction in mortality (range 64-82%) compared with 2015 levels. For India, and particularly for China, full scale-up of all interventions in tuberculosis-programme performance fell short of the 2025 targets, despite preventing a cumulative 3·4 million cases. The advocacy scenarios illustrated the high impact of detecting and treating latent tuberculosis. INTERPRETATION: Major reductions in tuberculosis burden seem possible with current interventions. However, additional interventions, adapted to country-specific tuberculosis epidemiology and health systems, are needed to reach the post-2015 End TB Strategy targets at country level. FUNDING: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.

Cost-effectiveness and resource implications of aggressive action on tuberculosis in China, India, and South Africa: a combined analysis of nine models.

BACKGROUND: The post-2015 End TB Strategy sets global targets of reducing tuberculosis incidence by 50% and mortality by 75% by 2025. We aimed to assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness of strategies to achieve these targets in China, India, and South Africa. METHODS: We examined intervention scenarios developed in consultation with country stakeholders, which scaled up existing interventions to high but feasible coverage by 2025. Nine independent modelling groups collaborated to estimate policy outcomes, and we estimated the cost of each scenario by synthesising service use estimates, empirical cost data, and expert opinion on implementation strategies. We estimated health effects (ie, disability-adjusted life-years averted) and resource implications for 2016-35, including patient-incurred costs. To assess resource requirements and cost-effectiveness, we compared scenarios with a base case representing continued current practice. FINDINGS: Incremental tuberculosis service costs differed by scenario and country, and in some cases they more than doubled existing funding needs. In general, expansion of tuberculosis services substantially reduced patient-incurred costs and, in India and China, produced net cost savings for most interventions under a societal perspective. In all three countries, expansion of access to care produced substantial health gains. Compared with current practice and conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds, most intervention approaches seemed highly cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: Expansion of tuberculosis services seems cost-effective for high-burden countries and could generate substantial health and economic benefits for patients, although substantial new funding would be required. Further work to determine the optimal intervention mix for each country is necessary. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.