Differences in Risk of Alzheimer's Disease Following Later-Life Traumatic Brain Injury in Veteran and Civilian Populations.

OBJECTIVE: To directly compare the effect of incident age 68+ traumatic brain injury (TBI) on the risk of diagnosis of clinical Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the general population of older adults, and between male veterans and nonveterans; to assess how this effect changes with time since TBI. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling traditional Medicare beneficiaries 68 years or older from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). DESIGN: Fine-Gray models combined with inverse-probability weighting were used to identify associations between incident TBI, post-TBI duration, and TBI treatment intensity, with a diagnosis of clinical AD dementia. The study included 16 829 older adults followed over the 1991-2015 period. For analyses of veteran-specific risks, 4281 veteran males and 3093 nonveteran males were identified. Analysis of veteran females was unfeasible due to the age structure of the population. Information on occurrence(s) of TBI, and onset of AD and risk-related comorbidities was constructed from individual-level HRS-linked Medicare claim records while demographic and socioeconomic risk factors were based on the survey data. RESULTS: Later-life TBI was strongly associated with increased clinical AD risk in the full sample (pseudo-hazard ratio [HR]: 3.22; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.57-4.05) and in veteran/nonveteran males (HR: 5.31; CI: 3.42-7.94), especially those requiring high-intensity/duration care (HR: 1.58; CI: 1.29-1.91). Effect magnitude decreased with time following TBI (HR: 0.72: CI: 0.68-0.80). CONCLUSION: Later-life TBI was strongly associated with increased AD risk, especially in those requiring high-intensity/duration care. Effect magnitude decreased with time following TBI. Univariate analysis showed no differences in AD risk between veterans and nonveterans, while the protective effect associated with veteran status in Fine-Gray models was largely due to differences in demographics, socioeconomics, and morbidity. Future longitudinal studies incorporating diagnostic procedures and documentation quantifying lifetime TBI events are necessary to uncover pathophysiological mediating and/or moderating mechanisms between TBI and AD.

Epidemiology of geographic disparities in heart failure among US older adults: a Medicare-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: There are prominent geographic disparities in the life expectancy (LE) of older US adults between the states with the highest (leading states) and lowest (lagging states) LE and their causes remain poorly understood. Heart failure (HF) has been proposed as a major contributor to these disparities. This study aims to investigate geographic disparities in HF outcomes between the leading and lagging states. METHODS: The study was a secondary data analysis of HF outcomes in older US adults aged 65+, using Center for Disease Control and Prevention sponsored Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database and a nationally representative 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries over 2000-2017. Empiric estimates of death certificate-based mortality from HF as underlying cause of death (CBM-UCD)/multiple cause of death (CBM-MCD); HF incidence-based mortality (IBM); HF incidence, prevalence, and survival were compared between the leading and lagging states. Cox regression was used to investigate the effect of residence in the lagging states on HF incidence and survival. RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2017, HF mortality rates (per 100,000) were higher in the lagging states (CBM-UCD: 188.5-248.6; CBM-MCD: 749.4-965.9; IBM: 2656.0-2978.4) than that in the leading states (CBM-UCD: 79.4-95.6; CBM-MCD: 441.4-574.1; IBM: 1839.5-2138.1). Compared to their leading counterparts, lagging states had higher HF incidence (2.9-3.9% vs. 2.2-2.9%), prevalence (15.6-17.2% vs. 11.3-13.0%), and pre-existing prevalence at age 65 (5.3-7.3% vs. 2.8-4.1%). The most recent rates of one- (77.1% vs. 80.4%), three- (59.0% vs. 60.7%) and five-year (45.8% vs. 49.8%) survival were lower in the lagging states. A greater risk of HF incidence (Adjusted Hazards Ratio, AHR [95%CI]: 1.29 [1.29-1.30]) and death after HF diagnosis (AHR: 1.12 [1.11-1.13]) was observed for populations in the lagging states. The study also observed recent increases in CBMs and HF incidence, and declines in HF prevalence, prevalence at age 65 and survival with a decade-long plateau stage in IBM in both leading and lagging states. CONCLUSION: There are substantial geographic disparities in HF mortality, incidence, prevalence, and survival across the U.S.: HF incidence, prevalence at age 65 (age of Medicare enrollment), and survival of patients with HF contributed most to these disparities. The geographic disparities and the recent increase in incidence and decline in survival underscore the importance of HF prevention strategies.

Partitioning of time trends in prevalence and mortality of lung cancer.

BACKGROUND: Time trends of lung cancer prevalence and mortality are the result of three competing processes: changes in the incidence rate, stage-specific survival, and ascertainment at early stages. Improvements in these measures act concordantly to improve disease-related mortality, but push the prevalence rate in opposite directions making a qualitative interpretation difficult. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the relative contributions of these components to changes in lung cancer prevalence and mortality. METHODS: Partitioning of prevalence and mortality trends into their components using SEER data for 1973-2013. RESULTS: The prevalence of lung cancer increases for females and decreases for males. In 1998, the former was due to increased incidence (45%-50% of total trend), improved survival (40%-45%), and increased ascertainment at early stages (10%-15%). In males, a rapidly declining incidence rate overpowered the effects of survival and ascertainment resulting in an overall decrease in prevalence over time. Trends in lung cancer mortality are determined by incidence during 1993-2002 with noticeable contribution of survival after 2002. CONCLUSION: Lung cancer incidence was the main driving force behind trends in prevalence and mortality. Improved survival played essential role from 2000 onwards. Trends in stage ascertainment played a small but adverse role. Our results suggest that further improvement in lung cancer mortality can be achieved through advances in early stage ascertainment, especially for males, and that in spite of success in treatment, adenocarcinoma continues to exhibit adverse trends (especially in female incidence) and its role among other histology-specific lung cancers will increase in the near future.

Pleiotropic Associations of Allelic Variants in a 2q22 Region with Risks of Major Human Diseases and Mortality.

Gaining insights into genetic predisposition to age-related diseases and lifespan is a challenging task complicated by the elusive role of evolution in these phenotypes. To gain more insights, we combined methods of genome-wide and candidate-gene studies. Genome-wide scan in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study (N = 9,573) was used to pre-select promising loci. Candidate-gene methods were used to comprehensively analyze associations of novel uncommon variants in Caucasians (minor allele frequency~2.5%) located in band 2q22.3 with risks of coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure (HF), stroke, diabetes, cancer, neurodegenerative diseases (ND), and mortality in the ARIC study, the Framingham Heart Study (N = 4,434), and the Health and Retirement Study (N = 9,676). We leveraged the analyses of pleiotropy, age-related heterogeneity, and causal inferences. Meta-analysis of the results from these comprehensive analyses shows that the minor allele increases risks of death by about 50% (p = 4.6×10-9), CHD by 35% (p = 8.9×10-6), HF by 55% (p = 9.7×10-5), stroke by 25% (p = 4.0×10-2), and ND by 100% (p = 1.3×10-3). This allele also significantly influences each of two diseases, diabetes and cancer, in antagonistic fashion in different populations. Combined significance of the pleiotropic effects was p = 6.6×10-21. Causal mediation analyses show that endophenotypes explained only small fractions of these effects. This locus harbors an evolutionary conserved gene-desert region with non-coding intergenic sequences likely involved in regulation of protein-coding flanking genes ZEB2 and ACVR2A. This region is intensively studied for mutations causing severe developmental/genetic disorders. Our analyses indicate a promising target region for interventions aimed to reduce risks of many major human diseases and mortality.

Effect of Prior Anti-VEGF Injections on the Risk of Retained Lens Fragments and Endophthalmitis after Cataract Surgery in the Elderly.

PURPOSE: To investigate the effect of prior intravitreal anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) injections on surgical and postoperative complication rates associated with cataract surgery in a nationally representative longitudinal sample of elderly persons. DESIGN: Retrospective, longitudinal cohort analysis. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 203 643 Medicare beneficiaries who underwent cataract surgery from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2013. METHODS: By using the 5% sample of Medicare claims data, the study assessed risks of 3 adverse outcomes after receipt of cataract surgery for beneficiaries with a history of intravitreal injections. Risks of these outcomes in beneficiaries with a history of intravitreal injections relative to those without were calculated using the Cox proportional hazard model. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was the risk of subsequent removal of retained lens fragments (RLFs) within 28 days after cataract surgery. Secondary outcomes were a new diagnosis of acute (<40 days) or delayed-onset (40+ days) endophthalmitis and risk of a new primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) diagnosis within 365 days after cataract surgery. RESULTS: Prior intravitreal anti-VEGF injections were associated with a significantly increased risk of subsequent RLF removal within 28 days after cataract surgery (hazard ratio [HR], 2.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19-4.30). Prior injections were also associated with increased risk of both acute (HR, 2.29; 95% CI, 1.001-5.22) and delayed-onset endophthalmitis (HR, 3.65; 95% CI, 1.65-8.05). Prior injections were not a significant indicator of increased risk of a new POAG diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: A history of intravitreal injections may be a risk factor for cataract surgery-related intraoperative complications and endophthalmitis. Given the frequency of intravitreal injections and cataract surgery, increased preoperative assessment, additional intraoperative caution, and postoperative vigilance are recommended in patients with a history of intravitreal injections undergoing cataract extraction.

Introducing Anti-Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Therapies for AMD Did Not Raise Risk of Myocardial Infarction, Stroke, and Death.

PURPOSE: To assess the effect of availability of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) therapy on mortality and hospitalizations for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and stroke over a 5-year follow-up period in United States Medicare beneficiaries newly diagnosed with exudative age-related macular degeneration (AMD) in 2006 compared with control groups consisting of beneficiaries (1) newly diagnosed with exudative AMD at a time when anti-VEGF therapy was not possible and (2) newly diagnosed with nonexudative AMD. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: Beneficiaries newly diagnosed with exudative and nonexudative AMD in 2000 and 2006 selected from a random longitudinal sample of Medicare 5% claims and enrollment files. METHODS: Beneficiaries with a first diagnosis of exudative AMD in 2006 were the treatment group; beneficiaries newly diagnosed with exudative AMD in 2000 or nonexudative AMD in 2000 or 2006 were control groups. To deal with potential selection bias, we designed an intent-to-treat study, which controlled for nonadherence to prescribed regimens. The treatment group consisted of patients with clinically appropriate characteristics to receive anti-VEGF injections given that the therapy is available, bypassing the need to monitor whether treatment was actually received. Control groups consisted of patients with clinically appropriate characteristics but first diagnosed at a time when the therapy was unavailable (2000) and similar patients but for whom the therapy was not clinically indicated (2000, 2006). We used a Cox proportional hazard model. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause mortality and hospitalization for AMI and stroke during follow-up. RESULTS: No statistically significant changes in probabilities of death and hospitalizations for AMI and stroke within a 5-year follow-up period were identified in exudative AMD beneficiaries newly diagnosed in 2006, the beginning of widespread anti-VEGF use, compared with 2000. As an alternative to our main analysis, which excluded beneficiaries from nonexudative AMD group who received anti-VEGF therapies during follow-up, we performed a sensitivity analysis with this group of individuals reincluded (11% of beneficiaries newly diagnosed with nonexudative AMD in 2006). Results were similar. CONCLUSIONS: Introduction of anti-VEGF agents in 2006 for treating exudative AMD has not posed a threat of increased risk of AMI, stroke, or all-cause mortality.

How the effects of aging and stresses of life are integrated in mortality rates: insights for genetic studies of human health and longevity.

Increasing proportions of elderly individuals in developed countries combined with substantial increases in related medical expenditures make the improvement of the health of the elderly a high priority today. If the process of aging by individuals is a major cause of age related health declines then postponing aging could be an efficient strategy for improving the health of the elderly. Implementing this strategy requires a better understanding of genetic and non-genetic connections among aging, health, and longevity. We review progress and problems in research areas whose development may contribute to analyses of such connections. These include genetic studies of human aging and longevity, the heterogeneity of populations with respect to their susceptibility to disease and death, forces that shape age patterns of human mortality, secular trends in mortality decline, and integrative mortality modeling using longitudinal data. The dynamic involvement of genetic factors in (i) morbidity/mortality risks, (ii) responses to stresses of life, (iii) multi-morbidities of many elderly individuals, (iv) trade-offs for diseases, (v) genetic heterogeneity, and (vi) other relevant aging-related health declines, underscores the need for a comprehensive, integrated approach to analyze the genetic connections for all of the above aspects of aging-related changes. The dynamic relationships among aging, health, and longevity traits would be better understood if one linked several research fields within one conceptual framework that allowed for efficient analyses of available longitudinal data using the wealth of available knowledge about aging, health, and longevity already accumulated in the research field.

Causes of the change in the rates of mortality and severe complications of diabetes mellitus: 1992-2012.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the causes of the changes in the rates of mortality and select severe complications of diabetes mellitus, type 2 (T2D) among the elderly between 1992 and 2012. RESEARCH DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study design based on Medicare 5% administrative claims data from 1992 to 2012 was used. Traditional fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries, age 65 and older, diagnosed with T2D and living in the United States between 1992 and 2012 were included in the study. Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition was used to quantify the potential causes of the change in the rates of death, congestive heart failure and/or acute myocardial infarction, stroke, amputation of lower extremity and end-stage renal disease between 1992 and 2012. RESULTS: The number of beneficiaries in the analysis sample diagnosed with T2D increased from 152,191 in 1992 to 289,443 in 2012. Over the same time period, rates of mortality decreased by 1.2, congestive heart failure and/or acute myocardial infarction by 2.6, stroke by 1.6, amputation by 0.6 while rates of end-stage renal disease increased by 1.5 percentage points. Improvements in the management of precursor conditions and utilization of recommended healthcare services, not population composition, were the primary causes of the change. CONCLUSIONS: With the exception of end-stage renal disease, outcomes among Medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with T2D improved. Analysis suggests that persons diagnosed with T2D are living longer with fewer severe complications. Much of the improvement in outcomes likely reflects more regular contact with health professionals and better management of care.

Effect of diabetes mellitus on giant cell arteritis.

BACKGROUND: To determine if Type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) is protective against giant cell arteritis (GCA) and to estimate the incidence of GCA diagnosis from Medicare claims. METHODS: Medicare 5% claims files from 1991 to 2011 were used to identify beneficiaries diagnosed with DM, but not GCA, within a 3-year ascertainment period. Propensity score matching was used to define a control group of nondiabetics with comparable demographic covariates. Competing risk regression was then used to assess the impact of DM diagnosis on GCA diagnosis. To allow for a 3-year ascertainment period, the analysis sample was limited to beneficiaries older than 68 years at baseline. RESULTS: A total of 151,041 beneficiaries diagnosed with DM were matched to an equal number of controls. Mean study follow-up was 67.75 months. GCA was diagnosed among 1116 beneficiaries with DM (0.73%) vs 465 (0.30%) controls. The risk of receiving a GCA diagnosis among patients with DM was increased by 100% (subhazard ratio, 2.00; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-2.25). The annual incidence of GCA diagnosis among claims for US Medicare beneficiaries older than 68 years old was 93 in 100,000. CONCLUSIONS: A DM diagnosis is not protective against a GCA diagnosis in the Medicare population. Our data suggest that a DM diagnosis increases the risk of GCA diagnosis within 5.7 years for Medicare beneficiaries older than 68 years.

Relation between BMI and diabetes mellitus and its complications among US older adults.

OBJECTIVES: This study examined relations between elevated body mass index (BMI) and time to diagnosis with type 2 diabetes mellitus and its complications among older adults in the United States. METHODS: Data came from the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, 1991-2010. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess relations between excess BMI at the first Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey interview and time to diabetes mellitus diagnosis, complications, and insulin dependence among Medicare beneficiaries, older than 65 years of age with no prior diabetes mellitus diagnosis, and who were not enrolled in Medicare Advantage (N = 14,657). RESULTS: Among individuals diagnosed as having diabetes mellitus, elevated BMIs were associated with a progressively higher risk of complications from diabetes mellitus. For women with a BMI ≥40, the risk of insulin dependence (hazard ratio [HR] 3.57; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.36-5.39) was twice that for women with 25 ≤ BMI < 27.5 (HR 1.77; 95% CI 1.33-2.33). A similar pattern was observed in risk of cardiovascular (25 ≤ BMI < 27.5: HR 1.34; 95% CI 1.15-1.54; BMI ≥40: HR 2.45; 95% CI 1.92-3.11), cerebrovascular (25 ≤ BMI < 27.5: HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.06-1.57; BMI ≥40: HR 2.00; 95% CI 1.42-2.81), renal (25 ≤ BMI < 27.5: HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.04-1.63; BMI ≥40: HR 2.23; 95% CI 1.54-3.22), and lower extremity complications (25 ≤ BMI < 27.5: HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.22-1.61; BMI ≥40: HR 2.95; 95% CI 2.35-3.69). CONCLUSIONS: Any increase in BMI above normal weight levels is associated with an increased risk of being diagnosed as having complications of diabetes mellitus. For men, the increased risk of these complications occurred at higher BMI levels than in women. Ocular complications occurred at higher BMI levels than other complication types in both men and women.

Gaps in receipt of regular eye examinations among medicare beneficiaries diagnosed with diabetes or chronic eye diseases.

OBJECTIVE: To examine a wide range of factors associated with regular eye examination receipt among elderly individuals diagnosed with glaucoma, age-related macular degeneration, or diabetes mellitus (DM). DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of Medicare claims linked to survey data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). PARTICIPANTS: The sample consisted of 2151 Medicare beneficiaries who responded to the HRS. METHODS: Medicare beneficiaries with ≥ 1 of the 3 study diagnoses were identified by diagnosis codes and merged with survey information. The same individuals were followed for 5 years divided into four 15-month periods. Predictors of the number of periods with an eye examination evaluated were beneficiary demographic characteristics, income, health, cognitive and physical function, health behaviors, subjective beliefs about longevity, the length of the individual's financial planning horizon, supplemental health insurance coverage, eye disease diagnoses, and low vision/blindness at baseline. We performed logit analysis of the number of 15-month periods in which beneficiaries received an eye examination. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome measure was the number of 15-month periods with an eye examination. RESULTS: One third of beneficiaries with the study's chronic diseases saw an eye care provider in all 4 follow-up periods despite having Medicare. One quarter only obtained an eye examination at most during 1 of the four 15-month follow-up periods. Among the 3 groups of patients studied, utilization was particularly low for persons with diagnosed DM and no eye complications. Age, marriage, education, and a higher score on the Charlson index were associated with more periods with an eye examination. Male gender, being limited in instrumental activities of daily living at baseline, distance to the nearest ophthalmologist, and low cognitive function were associated with a reduction in frequency of eye examinations. CONCLUSIONS: Rates of eye examinations for elderly persons with DM or frequently occurring eye diseases, especially for DM, remain far below recommended levels in a nationally representative sample of persons with health insurance coverage. Several factors, including limited physical and cognitive function and greater distance to an ophthalmologist, but not health insurance coverage, account for variation in regular use.

Genome-Related Mechanisms Contributing to Differences in Alzheimer's Disease Incidence Between White and Black Older US Adults.

In this manuscript, we leverage a modified GWAS algorithm adapted for use with multidimensional Cox models and data from the Health and Retirement Study to explore how genetic variation influences the size of the disparity in Alzheimer's disease (AD) incidence between older Black and White US adults. We identified four loci that were associated with higher AD incidence levels in older Black adults: (1) rs11077034 (hazard ratio (HR), 4.98) from the RBFOX1 gene; (2) rs7144494 (HR, 1.68) from the HISLA gene; (3) rs7660552 (HR, 3.07) from the SLC25A4 gene; and (4) rs12599485 (HR, 3.181) from the NIP30 gene. The RBFOX1, HISLA, SLC25A4, and NIP30 genes are known to be associated with AD (RBFOX1, NIP30) directly, and also influence the risk of AD risk-related morbidities such as hypertension (RBFOX1, SLC25A4), depression (SLC25A4), and certain cancers (HISLA, SLC25A4). A likely disparity-generating mechanism may lie in endocytosis and abnormal tissue growing mechanisms, depending on inherited gene mutations and the structure of proxies as well as gene-environment interactions with other risk factors such as lifestyle, education level, and access to adequate medical services.

Graves disease is associated with increased risk of clinical Alzheimer's disease: evidence from the Medicare system.

BACKGROUND: Identification of modifiable risk factors for Alzheimer's Disease (AD) onset is an important aspect of controlling the burden imposed by this disease on an increasing number of older U.S. adults. Graves disease (GD), the most common cause of hyperthyroidism in the U.S., has been hypothesized to be associated with increased AD risk, but there is no consensus. In this study, we explore the link between GD and risk of clinical AD. METHODS: Cox and Fine-Grey models were applied to a retrospective propensity-score-matched cohort of 19,798 individuals with GD drawn from a nationally representative 5% sample of U.S. Medicare beneficiaries age 65 + over the 1991-2020 period. RESULTS: Results showed that the presence of GD was associated with a higher risk of AD (Hazard Ratio [HR]:1.19; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]:1.13-1.26). Competing risk estimates were consistent with these findings (HR:1.14; CI:1.08-1.20) with the magnitude of associated risk varying across subgroups: Male (HR:1.25; CI:1.07-1.47), Female (HR:1.09; CI:1.02-1.16), White (HR:1.11; CI:1.03-1.19), and Black (HR:1.23; CI:1.02-1.49). CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate a robust and consistent association between a diagnosis of GD and a subsequent diagnosis of AD in later stages of life. The precise biological pathways that could potentially connect these two conditions remain unclear as is the role of treatment in this relationship. Replications of these findings on datasets with both biomarkers and laboratory test results, especially in underrepresented groups is vital.

Associations of infections and vaccines with Alzheimer's disease point to a role of compromised immunity rather than specific pathogen in AD.

INTRODUCTION: Diverse pathogens (viral, bacterial, fungal) have been associated with Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related traits in various studies. This suggests that compromised immunity, rather than specific microbes, may play a role in AD by increasing an individual's vulnerability to various infections, which could contribute to neurodegeneration. If true, then vaccines that have heterologous effects on immunity, extending beyond protection against the targeted disease, may hold a potential for AD prevention. METHODS: We evaluated the associations of common adult infections (herpes simplex, zoster (shingles), pneumonia, and recurrent mycoses), and vaccinations against shingles and pneumonia, with the risks of AD and other dementias in a pseudorandomized sample of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). RESULTS: Shingles, pneumonia and mycoses, diagnosed between ages 65 and 75, were all associated with significantly increased risk of AD later in life, by 16 %-42 %. Pneumococcal and shingles vaccines administered between ages 65-75 were both associated with a significantly lower risk of AD, by 15 %-21 %. These effects became less pronounced when AD was combined with other dementias. DISCUSSION: Our findings suggest that both the pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine and the live attenuated zoster vaccine can offer significant protection against AD. It remains to be determined if non-live shingles vaccine has a similar beneficial effect on AD. This study also found significant associations of various infections with the risk of AD, but not with the risks of other dementias. This indicates that vulnerability to infections may play a more significant role in AD than in other types of dementia, which warrants further investigation.

Patterns of Aging Changes in Bodyweight May Predict Alzheimer's Disease.

Relationships between patterns of aging-changes in bodyweight and AD are not fully understood. We compared mean age-trajectories of weight between those who did and did not develop late-onset-AD, and evaluated impact of age at maximum weight (AgeMax), and slope of decline in weight, on AD risk. Women with late-onset-AD had lower weight three or more decades before AD onset, and ∼10 years younger AgeMax, compared to AD-free women. APOE4 carriers had younger AgeMax and steeper slope. Older AgeMax and flatter slope predicted lower AD risk. Premature decline in weight could be a sign of accelerated physical aging contributing to AD.

The Construction of a Multidomain Risk Model of Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias.

BACKGROUND: Alzheimer's disease (AD) and related dementia (ADRD) risk is affected by multiple dependent risk factors; however, there is no consensus about their relative impact in the development of these disorders. OBJECTIVE: To rank the effects of potentially dependent risk factors and identify an optimal parsimonious set of measures for predicting AD/ADRD risk from a larger pool of potentially correlated predictors. METHODS: We used diagnosis record, survey, and genetic data from the Health and Retirement Study to assess the relative predictive strength of AD/ADRD risk factors spanning several domains: comorbidities, demographics/socioeconomics, health-related behavior, genetics, and environmental exposure. A modified stepwise-AIC-best-subset blanket algorithm was then used to select an optimal set of predictors. RESULTS: The final predictive model was reduced to 10 features for AD and 19 for ADRD; concordance statistics were about 0.85 for one-year and 0.70 for ten-year follow-up. Depression, arterial hypertension, traumatic brain injury, cerebrovascular diseases, and the APOE4 proxy SNP rs769449 had the strongest individual associations with AD/ADRD risk. AD/ADRD risk-related co-morbidities provide predictive power on par with key genetic vulnerabilities. CONCLUSION: Results confirm the consensus that circulatory diseases are the main comorbidities associated with AD/ADRD risk and show that clinical diagnosis records outperform comparable self-reported measures in predicting AD/ADRD risk. Model construction algorithms combined with modern data allows researchers to conserve power (especially in the study of disparities where disadvantaged groups are often grossly underrepresented) while accounting for a high proportion of AD/ADRD-risk-related population heterogeneity stemming from multiple domains.

Expanding the scope of health disparities research in Alzheimer's disease and related dementias: Recommendations from the "Leveraging Existing Data and Analytic Methods for Health Disparities Research Related to Aging and Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias" Workshop Series.

Topics discussed at the "Leveraging Existing Data and Analytic Methods for Health Disparities Research Related to Aging and Alzheimer's Disease and Related Dementias" workshop, held by Duke University and the Alzheimer's Association with support from the National Institute on Aging, are summarized.  Ways in which existing data resources paired with innovative applications of both novel and well-known methodologies can be used to identify the effects of multi-level societal, community, and individual determinants of race/ethnicity, sex, and geography-related health disparities in Alzheimer's disease and related dementia are proposed.  Current literature on the population analyses of these health disparities is summarized with a focus on identifying existing gaps in knowledge, and ways to mitigate these gaps using data/method combinations are discussed at the workshop.  Substantive and methodological directions of future research capable of advancing health disparities research related to aging are formulated.

Graves Disease is Associated with Increased Risk of Clinical Alzheimer's Disease: Evidence from the Medicare System.

Background: Identification of modifiable risk factors for Alzheimer's Disease (AD) onset is an important aspect of controlling the burden imposed by this disease on an increasing number of older U.S. adults. Graves disease (GD), the most common cause of hyperthyroidism in the U.S., has been hypothesized to be associated with increased AD risk, but there is no consensus. In this study, we explore the link between GD and risk of clinical AD. Methods: Cox and Fine-Grey models were applied to a retrospective propensity-score-matched cohort of 15,505 individuals with GD drawn from a nationally representative 5% sample of U.S. Medicare beneficiaries age 65 + over the 1991-2017 period. Results: Results showed that the presence of GD was associated with a higher risk of AD (Hazard Ratio [HR]:1.15; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]:1.07-1.23). Magnitude of associated risk varied across subgroups: Males (HR:1.19; CI:1.01-1.41), Females (HR:1.09; CI:1.02-1.18), Whites (HR:1.13; CI:1.04-1.20), Blacks (HR:1.33; CI:1.04-1.20). Competing risk estimates were consistent with these findings. Conclusions: A potential mechanism connecting GD and AD may involve shared etiological factors between the two diseases. Although replication of our findings is needed, they suggest that GD prevention and treatment may contribute to reducing the burden of AD in U.S. older adults.

Understanding Alzheimer's disease in the context of aging: Findings from applications of stochastic process models to the Health and Retirement Study.

There is growing literature on applications of biodemographic models, including stochastic process models (SPM), to studying regularities of age dynamics of biological variables in relation to aging and disease development. Alzheimer's disease (AD) is especially good candidate for SPM applications because age is a major risk factor for this heterogeneous complex trait. However, such applications are largely lacking. This paper starts filling this gap and applies SPM to data on onset of AD and longitudinal trajectories of body mass index (BMI) constructed from the Health and Retirement Study surveys and Medicare-linked data. We found that APOE e4 carriers are less robust to deviations of trajectories of BMI from the optimal levels compared to non-carriers. We also observed age-related decline in adaptive response (resilience) related to deviations of BMI from optimal levels as well as APOE- and age-dependence in other components related to variability of BMI around the mean allostatic values and accumulation of allostatic load. SPM applications thus allow revealing novel connections between age, genetic factors and longitudinal trajectories of risk factors in the context of AD and aging creating new opportunities for understanding AD development, forecasting trends in AD incidence and prevalence in populations, and studying disparities in those.

Associations of infections and vaccines with Alzheimer's disease point to a major role of compromised immunity rather than specific pathogen in AD.

INTRODUCTION: Diverse pathogens (viral, bacterial, fungal) have been linked to Alzheimer's disease (AD) indicating a possibility that the culprit may be compromised immunity rather than particular microbe. If true, then vaccines with broad beneficial effects on immunity might be protective against AD. METHODS: We estimated associations of common adult infections, including herpes simplex, zoster (shingles), pneumonia, and recurrent mycoses, as well as vaccinations against shingles and pneumonia, with the risk of AD in a pseudorandomized sample of the Health and Retirement Study. RESULTS: Shingles, pneumonia, and mycoses diagnosed between ages 65-75, were all associated with higher risk of AD later in life, by 16%-42%. Pneumococcal and shingles vaccines received between ages 65-75 both lowered the risk of AD, by 15%-21%. DISCUSSION: Our results support the idea that the connection between AD and infections involves compromised immunity rather than specific pathogen. We discuss mechanisms by which the declining immune surveillance may promote AD, and the role of biological aging in it. Repurposing of vaccines with broad beneficial effects on immunity could be a reasonable approach to AD prevention. Pneumococcal and zoster vaccines are promising candidates for such repurposing.