Modeling T Cell Fate.

Many of the pathways that underlie the diversification of naive T cells into effector and memory subsets, and the maintenance of these populations, remain controversial. In recent years a variety of experimental tools have been developed that allow us to follow the fates of cells and their descendants. In this review we describe how mathematical models provide a natural language for describing the growth, loss, and differentiation of cell populations. By encoding mechanistic descriptions of cell behavior, models can help us interpret these new datasets and reveal the rules underpinning T cell fate decisions, both at steady state and during immune responses.

Site-specific development and progressive maturation of human tissue-resident memory T cells over infancy and childhood.

Infancy and childhood are critical life stages for generating immune memory to protect against pathogens; however, the timing, location, and pathways for memory development in humans remain elusive. Here, we investigated T cells in mucosal sites, lymphoid tissues, and blood from 96 pediatric donors aged 0-10 years using phenotypic, functional, and transcriptomic profiling. Our results revealed that memory T cells preferentially localized in the intestines and lungs during infancy and accumulated more rapidly in mucosal sites compared with blood and lymphoid organs, consistent with site-specific antigen exposure. Early life mucosal memory T cells exhibit distinct functional capacities and stem-like transcriptional profiles. In later childhood, they progressively adopt proinflammatory functions and tissue-resident signatures, coincident with increased T cell receptor (TCR) clonal expansion in mucosal and lymphoid sites. Together, our findings identify staged development of memory T cells targeted to tissues during the formative years, informing how we might promote and monitor immunity in children.

Longitudinal profiling of respiratory and systemic immune responses reveals myeloid cell-driven lung inflammation in severe COVID-19.

Immune response dynamics in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and their severe manifestations have largely been studied in circulation. Here, we examined the relationship between immune processes in the respiratory tract and circulation through longitudinal phenotypic, transcriptomic, and cytokine profiling of paired airway and blood samples from patients with severe COVID-19 relative to heathy controls. In COVID-19 airways, T cells exhibited activated, tissue-resident, and protective profiles; higher T cell frequencies correlated with survival and younger age. Myeloid cells in COVID-19 airways featured hyperinflammatory signatures, and higher frequencies of these cells correlated with mortality and older age. In COVID-19 blood, aberrant CD163+ monocytes predominated over conventional monocytes, and were found in corresponding airway samples and in damaged alveoli. High levels of myeloid chemoattractants in airways suggest recruitment of these cells through a CCL2-CCR2 chemokine axis. Our findings provide insights into immune processes driving COVID-19 lung pathology with therapeutic implications for targeting inflammation in the respiratory tract.

Why marginal CO2 emissions are not decreasing for US electricity: Estimates and implications for climate policy.

Marginal emissions of CO2 from the electricity sector are critical for evaluating climate policies that rely on shifts in electricity demand or supply. This paper provides estimates of marginal CO2 emissions from US electricity generation using the most recently available and comprehensive data. The estimates vary by region, hour of the day, and year to year over the last decade. We identify an important and somewhat counterintuitive finding: While average emissions have decreased substantially over the last decade (28% nationally), marginal emissions have increased (7% nationally). We show that underlying these trends is primarily a shift toward greater reliance on coal to satisfy marginal electricity use. We apply our estimates to an analysis of the Biden administration's target of having electric vehicles (EVs) make up 50% of new vehicle purchases by 2030. We find that, without significant and concurrent changes to the electricity sector, the increase in electricity emissions is likely to offset more than half of the emission reductions from having fewer gasoline-powered vehicles on the road. Moreover, using average rather than marginal emissions to predict the impacts significantly overestimates the emission benefits. Overall, we find that the promise of EVs for reducing emissions depends, to a large degree, on complementary policies that decarbonize both average and marginal emissions in the electricity sector.

Healthy dynamics of CD4 T cells may drive HIV resurgence in perinatally-infected infants on antiretroviral therapy.

In 2019 there were 490,000 children under five living with HIV. Understanding the dynamics of HIV suppression and rebound in this age group is crucial to optimizing treatment strategies and increasing the likelihood of infants achieving and sustaining viral suppression. Here we studied data from a cohort of 122 perinatally-infected infants who initiated antiretroviral treatment (ART) early after birth and were followed for up to four years. These data included longitudinal measurements of viral load (VL) and CD4 T cell numbers, together with information regarding treatment adherence. We previously showed that the dynamics of HIV decline in 53 of these infants who suppressed VL within one year were similar to those in adults. However, in extending our analysis to all 122 infants, we find that a deterministic model of HIV infection in adults cannot explain the full diversity in infant trajectories. We therefore adapt this model to include imperfect ART adherence and natural CD4 T cell decline and reconstitution processes in infants. We find that individual variation in both processes must be included to obtain the best fits. We also find that infants with faster rates of CD4 reconstitution on ART were more likely to experience resurgences in VL. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of combining mathematical modeling with clinical data to disentangle the role of natural immune processes and viral dynamics during HIV infection.

The natural history of naive T cells from birth to maturity.

Generating and maintaining a diverse repertoire of naive T cells is essential for protection against pathogens, and developing a mechanistic and quantitative description of the processes involved lies at the heart of our understanding of vertebrate immunity. Here, we review the biology of naive T cells from birth to maturity and outline how the integration of mathematical models and experiments has helped us to develop a full picture of their life histories.

Age is not just a number: Naive T cells increase their ability to persist in the circulation over time.

The processes regulating peripheral naive T-cell numbers and clonal diversity remain poorly understood. Conceptually, homeostatic mechanisms must fall into the broad categories of neutral (simple random birth-death models), competition (regulation of cell numbers through quorum-sensing, perhaps via limiting shared resources), adaptation (involving cell-intrinsic changes in homeostatic fitness, defined as net growth rate over time), or selection (involving the loss or outgrowth of cell populations deriving from intercellular variation in fitness). There may also be stably maintained heterogeneity within the naive T-cell pool. To distinguish between these mechanisms, we confront very general models of these processes with an array of experimental data, both new and published. While reduced competition for homeostatic stimuli may impact cell survival or proliferation in neonates or under moderate to severe lymphopenia, we show that the only mechanism capable of explaining multiple, independent experimental studies of naive CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell homeostasis in mice from young adulthood into old age is one of adaptation, in which cells act independently and accrue a survival or proliferative advantage continuously with their post-thymic age. However, aged naive T cells may also be functionally impaired, and so the accumulation of older cells via 'conditioning through experience' may contribute to reduced immune responsiveness in the elderly.

Tissue-Resident Memory T Cells in Mice and Humans: Towards a Quantitative Ecology.

In recent years, tissue-resident memory T cells (TRM) have emerged as essential components of immunological memory. Following antigenic challenge, TRM remain in nonlymphoid tissues and defend against re-exposure. Although accumulating evidence suggests important roles for TRM in mediating protective immunity, fundamental aspects of the population biology of TRM remain poorly understood. In this article, we discuss how results from different systems shed light on the ecological dynamics of TRM in mice and humans. We highlight the importance of dissecting processes contributing to TRM maintenance, and how these might vary across phenotypically and spatially heterogeneous subsets. We also discuss how the diversity of TRM communities within specific tissues may evolve under competition and in response to antigenic perturbation. Throughout, we illustrate how mathematical models can clarify inferences obtained from experimental data and help elucidate the homeostatic mechanisms underpinning the ecology of TRM populations.

ushr: Understanding suppression of HIV in R.

BACKGROUND: HIV/AIDS is responsible for the deaths of one million people every year. Although mathematical modeling has provided many insights into the dynamics of HIV infection, there is still a lack of accessible tools for researchers unfamiliar with modeling techniques to apply them to their own clinical data. RESULTS: Here we present ushr, a free and open-source R package that models the decline of HIV during antiretroviral treatment (ART) using a popular mathematical framework. ushr can be applied to longitudinal data of viral load measurements, and provides processing tools to prepare it for computational analysis. By mathematically fitting the data, important biological parameters can then be estimated, including the lifespans of short and long-lived infected cells, and the time to reach viral suppression below a defined detection threshold. The package also provides visualization and summary tools for fast assessment of model results. CONCLUSIONS: ushr enables researchers without a strong mathematical or computational background to model the dynamics of HIV using longitudinal clinical data. Increasing accessibility to such methods may facilitate quantitative analysis across a broader range of independent studies, so that greater insights on HIV infection and treatment dynamics may be gained.

Modeling the measles paradox reveals the importance of cellular immunity in regulating viral clearance.

Measles virus (MV) is a highly contagious member of the Morbillivirus genus that remains a major cause of childhood mortality worldwide. Although infection induces a strong MV-specific immune response that clears viral load and confers lifelong immunity, transient immunosuppression can also occur, leaving the host vulnerable to colonization from secondary pathogens. This apparent contradiction of viral clearance in the face of immunosuppression underlies what is often referred to as the 'measles paradox', and remains poorly understood. To explore the mechanistic basis underlying the measles paradox, and identify key factors driving viral clearance, we return to a previously published dataset of MV infection in rhesus macaques. These data include virological and immunological information that enable us to fit a mathematical model describing how the virus interacts with the host immune system. In particular, our model incorporates target cell depletion through infection of host immune cells-a hallmark of MV pathology that has been neglected from previous models. We find the model captures the data well, and that both target cell depletion and immune activation are required to explain the overall dynamics. Furthermore, by simulating conditions of increased target cell availability and suppressed cellular immunity, we show that the latter causes greater increases in viral load and delays to MV clearance. Overall, this signals a more dominant role for cellular immunity in resolving acute MV infection. Interestingly, we find contrasting dynamics dominated by target cell depletion when viral fitness is increased. This may have wider implications for animal morbilliviruses, such as canine distemper virus (CDV), that cause fatal target cell depletion in their natural hosts. To our knowledge this work represents the first fully calibrated within-host model of MV dynamics and, more broadly, provides a new platform from which to explore the complex mechanisms underlying Morbillivirus infection.

Suppression of Th1 Priming by TLR2 Agonists during Cutaneous Immunization Is Mediated by Recruited CCR2+ Monocytes.

Effective subunit vaccines require the incorporation of adjuvants that stimulate cells of the innate immune system to generate protective adaptive immune responses. Pattern recognition receptor agonists are a growing class of potential adjuvants that can shape the character of the immune response to subunit vaccines by directing the polarization of CD4 T cell differentiation to various functional subsets. In the current study, we applied a high-throughput in vitro screen to assess murine CD4 T cell polarization by a panel of pattern recognition receptor agonists. This identified lipopeptides with TLR2 agonist activity as exceptional Th1-polarizing adjuvants. In vivo, we demonstrated that i.v. administration of TLR2 agonists with Ag in mice replicated the findings from in vitro screening by promoting strong Th1 polarization. In contrast, TLR2 agonists inhibited priming of Th1 responses when administered cutaneously in mice. This route-specific suppression was associated with infiltrating CCR2+ cells in the skin-draining lymph nodes and was not uniquely dependent on any of the well characterized subsets of dendritic cells known to reside in the skin. We further demonstrated that priming of CD4 T cells to generate Th1 effectors following immunization with the Mycobacterium bovis bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) strain, a lipoprotein-rich bacterium recognized by TLR2, was dependent on the immunization route, with significantly greater Th1 responses with i.v. compared with intradermal administration of BCG. A more complete understanding of route-dependent TLR2 responses may be critical for informed design of novel subunit vaccines and for improvement of BCG and other vaccines based on live-attenuated organisms.

Identifying T Cell Receptors from High-Throughput Sequencing: Dealing with Promiscuity in TCRα and TCRß Pairing.

Characterisation of the T cell receptors (TCR) involved in immune responses is important for the design of vaccines and immunotherapies for cancer and autoimmune disease. The specificity of the interaction between the TCR heterodimer and its peptide-MHC ligand derives largely from the juxtaposed hypervariable CDR3 regions on the TCRα and TCRß chains, and obtaining the paired sequences of these regions is a standard for functionally defining the TCR. A brute force approach to identifying the TCRs in a population of T cells is to use high-throughput single-cell sequencing, but currently this process remains costly and risks missing small clones. Alternatively, CDR3α and CDR3ß sequences can be associated using their frequency of co-occurrence in independent samples, but this approach can be confounded by the sharing of CDR3α and CDR3ß across clones, commonly observed within epitope-specific T cell populations. The accurate, exhaustive, and economical recovery of TCR sequences from such populations therefore remains a challenging problem. Here we describe an algorithm for performing frequency-based pairing (alphabetr) that accommodates CDR3α- and CDR3ß-sharing, cells expressing two TCRα chains, and multiple forms of sequencing error. The algorithm also yields accurate estimates of clonal frequencies.

Temporal fate mapping reveals age-linked heterogeneity in naive T lymphocytes in mice.

Understanding how our T-cell compartments are maintained requires knowledge of their population dynamics, which are typically quantified over days to weeks using the administration of labels incorporated into the DNA of dividing cells. These studies present snapshots of homeostatic dynamics and have suggested that lymphocyte populations are heterogeneous with respect to rates of division and/or death, although resolving the details of such heterogeneity is problematic. Here we present a method of studying the population dynamics of T cells in mice over timescales of months to years that reveals heterogeneity in rates of division and death with respect to the age of the host at the time of thymic export. We use the transplant conditioning drug busulfan to ablate hematopoetic stem cells in young mice but leave the peripheral lymphocyte compartments intact. Following their reconstitution with congenically labeled (donor) bone marrow, we followed the dilution of peripheral host T cells by donor-derived lymphocytes for a year after treatment. Describing these kinetics with mathematical models, we estimate rates of thymic production, division and death of naive CD4 and CD8 T cells. Population-averaged estimates of mean lifetimes are consistent with earlier studies, but we find the strongest support for a model in which both naive T-cell pools contain kinetically distinct subpopulations of older host-derived cells with self-renewing capacity that are resistant to displacement by naive donor lymphocytes. We speculate that these incumbent cells are conditioned or selected for increased fitness through homeostatic expansion into the lymphopenic neonatal environment.

Damages and Expected Deaths Due to Excess NOx Emissions from 2009 to 2015 Volkswagen Diesel Vehicles.

We estimate the damages and expected deaths in the United States due to excess emissions of NOx from 2009 to 2015 Volkswagen diesel vehicles. Using data on vehicle registrations and a model of pollution transport and valuation, we estimate excess damages of $430 million and 46 excess expected deaths. Accounting for uncertainty about emissions gives a range for damages from $350 million to $500 million, and a range for excess expected deaths from 40 to 52. Our estimates incorporate significant local heterogeneity: for example, Minneapolis has the highest damages despite having fewer noncompliant vehicles than 13 other cities. Our estimated damages greatly exceed possible benefits from reduced CO2 emissions due to increased fuel economy.

Asymmetric thymocyte death underlies the CD4:CD8 T-cell ratio in the adaptive immune system.

It has long been recognized that the T-cell compartment has more CD4 helper than CD8 cytotoxic T cells, and this is most evident looking at T-cell development in the thymus. However, it remains unknown how thymocyte development so favors CD4 lineage development. To identify the basis of this asymmetry, we analyzed development of synchronized cohorts of thymocytes in vivo and estimated rates of thymocyte death and differentiation throughout development, inferring lineage-specific efficiencies of selection. Our analysis suggested that roughly equal numbers of cells of each lineage enter selection and found that, overall, a remarkable ∼75% of cells that start selection fail to complete the process. Importantly it revealed that class I-restricted thymocytes are specifically susceptible to apoptosis at the earliest stage of selection. The importance of differential apoptosis was confirmed by placing thymocytes under apoptotic stress, resulting in preferential death of class I-restricted thymocytes. Thus, asymmetric death during selection is the key determinant of the CD4:CD8 ratio in which T cells are generated by thymopoiesis.

Peripheral selection rather than thymic involution explains sudden contraction in naive CD4 T-cell diversity with age.

A diverse array of T cells is required for defense against pathogens. The naive CD4 T-cell repertoire reaches its peak diversity by early human adulthood and is maintained until older age. Surprisingly, around age 70, this diversity appears to plummet abruptly. A similar qualitative pattern holds for the CD4 T memory-cell population. We used mathematical models to explore different hypotheses for how such a loss of diversity might occur. The prevailing hypotheses suggest that the loss of diversity is due to a decline in emigration of cells from the thymus or a contraction in total number of cells. Our models reject these mechanisms because they yield only a gradual and minimal decline in the repertoire instead of the observed sudden and profound decrease later in life. We propose that an abrupt decline in the repertoire could be caused by the accumulation of mutations (defined here as any cell-intrinsic heritable event) that provide a short-term fitness advantage to a small number of T-cell clones (e.g., by an increased division rate or decreased death rate), with the person as a whole incurring the long-term cost of a decreased ability to fight infections.

Quantification of lymph node transit times reveals differences in antigen surveillance strategies of naive CD4+ and CD8+ T cells.

Naïve T cells continually recirculate between blood and secondary lymphoid organs, scanning dendritic cells (DC) for foreign antigen. Despite its importance for understanding how adaptive immune responses are efficiently initiated from rare precursors, a detailed quantitative analysis of this fundamental process has not been reported. Here we measure lymph node (LN) entry, transit, and exit rates for naïve CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cells, then use intravital imaging and mathematical modeling to relate cell-cell interaction dynamics to population behavior. Our studies reveal marked differences between CD4(+) vs. CD8(+) T cells. CD4(+) T cells recirculate more rapidly, homing to LNs more efficiently, traversing LNs twice as quickly, and spending ∼1/3 of their transit time interacting with MHCII on DC. In contrast, adoptively transferred CD8(+) T cells enter and leave the LN more slowly, with a transit time unaffected by the absence of MHCI molecules on host cells. Together, these data reveal an unexpectedly asymmetric role for MHC interactions in controlling CD4(+) vs. CD8(+) T lymphocyte recirculation, as well as distinct contributions of T cell receptor (TCR)-independent factors to the LN transit time, exposing the divergent surveillance strategies used by the two lymphocyte populations in scanning for foreign antigen.

The race for the prize: T-cell trafficking strategies for optimal surveillance.

The initiation of T-cell responses requires rare precursors to locate a draining lymph node (dLN) and encounter dendritic cells (DCs) presenting peptide-major histocompatibility complexes (pMHCs). To locate this needle in the haystack rapidly, T cells face an optimization problem-what is the most efficient trafficking strategy for surveillance and recirculation through blood? Two extremes are scanning low numbers of DCs per node with frequent recirculation, or meticulous surveillance with infrequent recirculation. Naive T cells also require stimulation by self-pMHCs. To enable efficient location of both foreign and self, has evolution settled on an optimum time for T cells to spend surveying each lymph node? Using a data-driven mathematical model, we show the most efficient strategy for detecting antigen in a dLN depends on its abundance. Detection of low-density antigen is optimized with systemically slow transit. In contrast, at high densities or if dLN egress is restricted, rapid transit through other nodes is optimal. We argue that blood-lymph recirculation dynamics facilitate a trade-off, and are consistent with dominant roles for the very early detection of rare foreign antigens in a dLN, and the efficient accumulation of signals from systemically distributed self-antigens.

Models of self-peptide sampling by developing T cells identify candidate mechanisms of thymic selection.

Conventional and regulatory T cells develop in the thymus where they are exposed to samples of self-peptide MHC (pMHC) ligands. This probabilistic process selects for cells within a range of responsiveness that allows the detection of foreign antigen without excessive responses to self. Regulatory T cells are thought to lie at the higher end of the spectrum of acceptable self-reactivity and play a crucial role in the control of autoimmunity and tolerance to innocuous antigens. While many studies have elucidated key elements influencing lineage commitment, we still lack a full understanding of how thymocytes integrate signals obtained by sampling self-peptides to make fate decisions. To address this problem, we apply stochastic models of signal integration by T cells to data from a study quantifying the development of the two lineages using controllable levels of agonist peptide in the thymus. We find two models are able to explain the observations; one in which T cells continually re-assess fate decisions on the basis of multiple summed proximal signals from TCR-pMHC interactions; and another in which TCR sensitivity is modulated over time, such that contact with the same pMHC ligand may lead to divergent outcomes at different stages of development. Neither model requires that T(conv) and T(reg) are differentially susceptible to deletion or that the two lineages need qualitatively different signals for development, as have been proposed. We find additional support for the variable-sensitivity model, which is able to explain apparently paradoxical observations regarding the effect of partial and strong agonists on T(conv) and T(reg) development.