[Surgical Safety of Elderly Hospitalized Patients Stratified by Age in General Surgery].

Objective To compare the surgical safety of elderly hospitalized patients in different age groups undergoing general surgery,and provide references for preoperative evaluation and treatment decision-making.Methods The inpatients ≥ 60 years old in the department of general surgery were selected from a national multi-center survey conducted from January to June in 2015 and from January to June in 2016.The patient characteristics and postoperative outcomes were described,and the risk factors for adverse postoperative outcomes of patients in different age groups were explored.Results The elderly patients (≥75 years old) accounted for 17.33%.The non-elderly patient (< 75 years old) group and the elderly patient (≥75 years old) group had significant differences in the proportions of patients with three or more chronical diseases (13.18% vs.5.36%,P<0.001),emergency surgery (16.64% vs.7.62%,P<0.001),American Society of Anesthesiologists score≥3 (48.68% vs.27.28%,P<0.001),and postoperative return to the intensive care unit(33.64% vs.12.00%,P<0.001).The occurrence of postoperative infectious complications showed no significant difference between the two age groups (7.29% vs.6.40%,P=0.410),while severe complications differed between the two groups (6.51% vs.2.60%,P<0.001).Besides,emergency surgery was a common independent risk factor for the two age groups.Conclusions Advanced age is not a contraindication to surgery of elderly patients.With consideration to patient's physical conditions and available surgical resources,elderly patients can still benefit from surgery.

Generating real-world evidence compatible with evidence from randomized controlled trials: a novel observational study design applicable to surgical transfusion research.

BACKGROUND: Numerous observational studies have revealed an increased risk of death and complications with transfusion, but this observation has not been confirmed in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). The "transfusion kills patients" paradox persists in real-world observational studies despite application of analytic methods such as propensity-score matching. We propose a new design to address this long-term existing issue, which if left unresolved, will be deleterious to the healthy generation of evidence that supports optimized transfusion practice. METHODS: In the new design, we stress three aspects for reconciling observational studies and RCTs on transfusion safety: (1) re-definition of the study population according to a stable hemoglobin range (gray zone of transfusion decision; 7.5-9.5 g/dL in this study); (2) selection of comparison groups according to a trigger value (last hemoglobin measurement before transfusion; nadir during hospital stay for control); (3) dealing with patient heterogeneity according to standardized mean difference (SMD) values. We applied the new design to hospitalized older patients (aged ≥60 years) undergoing general surgery at four academic/teaching hospitals. Four datasets were analyzed: a base population before (Base Match-) and after (Base Match+) propensity-score matching to simulate previous observational studies; a study population before (Study Match-) and after (Study Match+) propensity-score matching to demonstrate effects of our design. RESULTS: Of 6141 older patients, 662 (10.78%) were transfused and showed high heterogeneity compared with those not receiving transfusion, particularly regarding preoperative hemoglobin (mean: 11.0 vs. 13.5 g/dL) and intraoperative bleeding (≥500 mL: 37.9% vs. 2.1%). Patient heterogeneity was reduced with the new design; SMD of the two variables was reduced from approximately 100% (Base Match-) to 0% (Study Match+). Transfusion was related to a higher risk of death and complications in Base Match- (odds ratio [OR], 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.68, 1.86-3.86) and Base Match+ (2.24, 1.43-3.49), but not in Study Match- (0.77, 0.32-1.86) or Study Match+ (0.66, 0.23-1.89). CONCLUSIONS: We show how choice of study population and analysis could affect real-world study findings. Our results following the new design are in accordance with relevant RCTs, highlighting its value in accelerating the pace of transfusion evidence generation and generalization.

[Patterns of Perioperative Blood Transfusion in Patients with Blood Loss during Major Cardiac Surgery].

Objective To investigate the patterns of perioperative blood transfusion in patients with blood loss during major cardiac surgery,so as to provide data reference for rational and standardized blood use.Methods The adult patients(aged 18 years or above)who underwent vascular surgery,coronary artery bypass grafting surgery,heart valve surgery or surgery for congenital heart disease in a national multicenter(four large hospitals)survey in China,2015-2016 were included in this study.We described their baseline characteristics,postoperative outcomes,and in particular,bleeding and patterns of perioperative blood transfusion(autologous and allogeneic,the latter including red blood cells,plasma,and platelet,or a combination of these components).Results Autologous blood transfusion in operation accounted for the highest proportion(58.84%)in patients undergoing heart valve surgery.The patients undergoing vascular surgery had the largest autologous blood transfusion volume(722 ml)and the highest intraoperative transfusion proportion of allogeneic blood(53.28%),especially that of platelet(39.34%).Compared with the transfusion of red blood cells,the transfusion of other blood components showed concentrated time distribution,and the proportion of plasma transfusion was the highest one day post operation.With the increase in bleeding volume,combined transfusion presented increased proportion and became the dominant transfusion pattern.Conclusions The blood transfusion patterns varied significantly depending on different types of cardiac surgery,different perioperative stages,and different bleeding volumes.It is necessary to formulate the targeted transfusion practice scheme on the basis of understanding the current situation,so as to make better use of blood resources and improve the safety of transfusion.

Population-based projections of blood supply and demand, China, 2017-2036.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the long-term effect of the changing demography in China on blood supply and demand. METHODS: We developed a predictive model to estimate blood supply and demand during 2017-2036 in mainland China and in 31 province-level regions. Model parameters were obtained from World Population Prospects, China statistical yearbook 2016, China's report on blood safety and records from a large tertiary hospital. Our main assumptions were stable age-specific per capita blood supply and demand over time. FINDINGS: We estimated that the change in demographic structure between 2016 (baseline year) and 2036 would result in a 16.0% decrease in blood supply (from 43.2 million units of 200 mL to 36.3 million units) and a 33.1% increase in demand (from 43.2 million units to 57.5 million units). In 2036, there would be an estimated shortage of 21.2 million units. An annual increase in supply between 0.9% and 1.8% is required to maintain a balance in blood supply and demand. This increase is not enough for every region as regional differences will increase, e.g. a blood demand/supply ratio ≥ 1.45 by 2036 is predicted in regions with large populations older than 65 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that increasing donations by 4.0% annually by people aged 18-34 years or decreasing the overall blood discard rate from 5.0% to 2.0% would not offset but help reduce the blood shortage. CONCLUSION: Multidimensional strategies and tailored, coordinated actions are needed to deal with growing pressures on blood services because of China's ageing population.

Cost-effectiveness comparison of routine transfusion with restrictive and liberal transfusion strategies for surgical patients in China.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: A health industry standard recommending restrictive transfusion is to be in effect in China in April 2019. We aim to explore its potential economic and clinical impacts among surgical patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A decision tree model was applied to compare cost-effectiveness of current routine transfusion in China, a restrictive (transfusion at Hb < 8 g/dl or ischaemic symptoms) and a liberal (transfusion at Hb < 10 g/dl) strategy. Parameters were estimated from empirical data of 25 227 surgical inpatients aged ≥30 years in a multicenter study and supplemented by meta-analysis when necessary. Results are shown for cardio-cerebral-vascular (CCV) surgery and non-CCV (orthopaedics, general, thoracic) surgery separately. RESULTS: Per 10 000 patients in routine, restrictive, liberal transfusion scenarios, total spending (transfusion and length of stay related) was 7·67, 7·58 and 9·39 million CNY (1 CNY × 0.157 = 1 US dollar) for CCV surgery and 6·35, 6·70 and 8·09 million CNY for non-CCV surgery; infectious and severe complications numbered 354, 290, and 290 (CCV) and 315, 286, and 330 (non-CCV), respectively. Acceptability curves showed high probabilities for restrictive strategy to be cost-effective across a wide range of willingness-to-pay values. Such findings were mostly consistent in sensitivity and subgroup analyses except for patients with cardiac problems. CONCLUSION: We showed strong rationale, succeeding previous findings only in cardiac or joint procedures, to comply with the new standard as restrictive transfusion has high potential to save blood, secure safety, and is cost-effective for a wide spectrum of surgical patients. Experiences should be further summarized to pave the way towards individualized transfusion.

Key Issues in the Development of an Evidence-Based Stratified Surgical Patient Safety Improvement Information System: Experience From a Multicenter Surgical Safety Program.

Surgery is still far from being completely safe and reliable. Surgical safety has, therefore, been the focus of considerable attention over the last few decades, and there are a growing number of national drives to improve it. There are also a number of large surgical complication reporting systems and system-based interventions, both of which have made remarkable progress in the past two decades. These systems, however, have either mainly focused on reporting complications and played a limited role in guiding practice or have provided nonselective interventions to all patients, perhaps imposing unnecessary burdens on frontline medical staff. We have, therefore, developed an evidence-based stratified surgical safety information system based on a multicenter surgical safety improvement program. This study discusses some critical issues in the process of developing this information system, including (1) decisions about data gathering, (2) establishing and sharing knowledge, (3) developing functions for the system, (4) system implementation, and (5) evaluation and continuous improvement. Using examples drawn from the surgical safety improvement program, we have shown how this type of system can be fitted into day-to-day clinical practice and how it can guide medical practice by incorporating inherent patient-related risk and providing tailored interventions for patients with different levels of risk. We concluded that multidisciplinary collaboration, involving experts in health care (including senior staff in surgery, nursing, and anesthesia), data science, health care management, and health information technology, can help build an evidence-based stratified surgical patient safety improvement system. This can provide an information-intensified surgical safety learning platform and, therefore, benefit surgical patients by delivering tailored interventions and an integrated workflow.

Development and validation of an interpretable Markov-embedded multilabel model for predicting risks of multiple postoperative complications among surgical inpatients: a multicenter prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: When they encounter various highly related postoperative complications, existing risk evaluation tools that focus on single or any complications are inadequate in clinical practice. This seriously hinders complication management because of the lack of a quantitative basis. An interpretable multilabel model framework that predicts multiple complications simultaneously is urgently needed. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The authors included 50 325 inpatients from a large multicenter cohort (2014-2017). The authors separated patients from one hospital for external validation and randomly split the remaining patients into training and internal validation sets. A MARKov-EmbeDded (MARKED) multilabel model was proposed, and three models were trained for comparison: binary relevance, a fully connected network (FULLNET), and a deep neural network. Performance was mainly evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The authors interpreted the model using Shapley Additive Explanations. Complication-specific risk and risk source inference were provided at the individual level. RESULTS: There were 26 292, 6574, and 17 459 inpatients in the training, internal validation, and external validation sets, respectively. For the external validation set, MARKED achieved the highest average AUC (0.818, 95% CI: 0.771-0.864) across eight outcomes [compared with binary relevance, 0.799 (0.748-0.849), FULLNET, 0.806 (0.756-0.856), and deep neural network, 0.815 (0.765-0.866)]. Specifically, the AUCs of MARKED were above 0.9 for cardiac complications [0.927 (0.894-0.960)], neurological complications [0.905 (0.870-0.941)], and mortality [0.902 (0.867-0.937)]. Serum albumin, surgical specialties, emergency case, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, age, and sex were the six most important preoperative variables. The interaction between complications contributed more than the preoperative variables, and formed a hierarchical chain of risk factors, mild complications, and severe complications. CONCLUSION: The authors demonstrated the advantage of MARKED in terms of performance and interpretability. The authors expect that the identification of high-risk patients and the inference of the risk source for specific complications will be valuable for clinical decision-making.

Construction and evaluation of networks among multiple postoperative complications.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Postoperative complications confer an increased risk of reoperation, prolonged length of hospital stay, and increased mortality. Many studies have attempted to identify the complex associations among complications to preemptively interrupt their progression, but few studies have looked at complications as a whole to reveal and quantify their possible trajectories of progression. The main objective of this study was to construct and quantify the association network among multiple postoperative complications from a comprehensive perspective to elucidate the possible evolution trajectories. METHODS: In this study, a Bayesian network model was proposed to analyze the associations among 15 complications. Prior evidence and score-based hill-climbing algorithms were used to build the structure. The severity of complications was graded according to their connection to death, with the association between them quantified using conditional probabilities. The data of surgical inpatients used in this study were collected from four regionally representative academic/teaching hospitals in a prospective cohort study in China. RESULTS: In the network obtained, 15 nodes represented complications or death, and 35 arcs with arrows represented the directly dependent relationship between them. With three grades classified on that basis, the correlation coefficients of complications within grades increased with increased grade, ranging from -0.11 to -0.06, 0.16, and 0.21 to 0.4 in grade 1 to grade 3, respectively. Moreover, the probability of each complication in the network increased with the occurrence of any other complication, even mild complications. Most seriously, once cardiac arrest requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation occurs, the probability of death will be up to 88.1%. CONCLUSIONS: The present evolving network can facilitate the identification of strong associations among specific complications and provides a basis for the development of targeted measures to prevent further deterioration in high-risk patients.

Network prediction of surgical complication clusters: a prospective multicenter cohort study.

Complicated relationships exist in both occurrence and progression of surgical complications, which are difficult to account for using a separate quantitative method such as prediction or grading. Data of 51,030 surgical inpatients were collected from four academic/teaching hospitals in a prospective cohort study in China. The relationship between preoperative factors, 22 common complications, and death was analyzed. With input from 54 senior clinicians and following a Bayesian network approach, a complication grading, cluster-visualization, and prediction (GCP) system was designed to model pathways between grades of complication and preoperative risk factor clusters. In the GCP system, there were 11 nodes representing six grades of complication and five preoperative risk factor clusters, and 32 arcs representing a direct association. Several critical targets were pinpointed on the pathway. Malnourished status was a fundamental cause widely associated (7/32 arcs) with other risk factor clusters and complications. American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score ⩾3 was directly dependent on all other risk factor clusters and influenced all severe complications. Grade III complications (mainly pneumonia) were directly dependent on 4/5 risk factor clusters and affected all other grades of complication. Irrespective of grade, complication occurrence was more likely to increase the risk of other grades of complication than risk factor clusters.

Prediction of complications associated with general surgery using a Bayesian network.

BACKGROUND: Numerous attempts have been made to identify risk factors for surgery complications, but few studies have identified accurate methods of predicting complex outcomes involving multiple complications. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort study of general surgical inpatients who attended 4 regionally representative hospitals in China from January to June 2015 and January to June 2016. The risk factors were identified using logistic regression. A Bayesian network model, consisting of directed arcs and nodes, was used to analyze the relationships between risk factors and complications. Probability ratios for complications for a given node state relative to the baseline probability were calculated to quantify the potential effects of risk factors on complications or of complications on other complications. RESULTS: We recruited 19,223 participants and identified 21 nodes, representing 9 risk factors and 12 complications, and 55 direct relationships between these. Respiratory failure was at the center of the network, directly affected by 5 risk factors, and directly affected 7 complications. Cardiopulmonary resuscitation and sepsis or septic shock also directly affected death. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the ability of the network to predict complications was >0.7. Notably, the probability of other severe complications or death significantly increased when a severe complication occurred. Most importantly, there was a 141-fold higher risk of death when cardiopulmonary resuscitation was required. CONCLUSION: We have created a Bayesian network that displays how risk factors affect complications and their interrelationships and permits the accurate prediction of complications and the creation of appropriate preventive guidelines.

Expanding restrictive transfusion evidence in surgical practice: a multicentre, prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Findings of observational studies investigating the impact of transfusions are at odds with those of randomised controlled trials, raising concern that observational studies may be inappropriate to inform transfusion decisions. We examined whether observational data could replicate evidence from randomised controlled trials on restrictive transfusion in cardiac and orthopaedic surgery, and be generalised to broader specialties as well as to a lower haemoglobin transfusion threshold (7 g/dL). MATERIAL AND METHODS: A multicentre, prospective cohort study was performed at three representative regional hospitals in China between 2015 and 2016. Participants were surgical inpatients (≥18 years; hospital stay ≥24 h) in six specialties: cardiac, cerebral, vascular (CCV), and orthopaedic, general, thoracic (non-CCV). Patients with a stable haemoglobin (7-10 g/dL) constituted the primary analytic sample, while patients with ≥500 mL intra-operative bleeding were analysed separately to avoid haemoglobin instability. The association of transfusion with surgical outcomes (death, in-hospital complications) was evaluated. RESULTS: The transfusion rate was 10.7% in 36,607 patients (mean age, 52.5±14.3 years; 52.3% female). After restriction, stratification, and propensity score matching to reduce patients' heterogeneity, transfusion was unrelated to death (CCV: odds ratio [OR]=0.74, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.16-3.39; non-CCV: OR 0.83, 95% CI: 0.36-1.94) and the composite complication (CCV: OR 1.31, 95% CI: 0.63-2.72; non-CCV: OR=1.24, 95% CI: 0.81-1.90). The results were consistent in subgroups (elderly, coronary heart disease, malignant tumour, severe illness) and applicable to patients with significant bleeding after restoration of a stable haemoglobin. DISCUSSION: Transfusion at a stable haemoglobin concentration of 7-10 g/dL did not alter surgical outcomes. Our results show the feasibility of observational data to expand restrictive transfusion to broader specialties and a lower transfusion threshold in surgical practice.

Developing a toolbox for identifying when to engage senior surgeons in emergency general surgery: A multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Having a senior surgeon present for high-risk patients is an important safety measure in emergency surgery, but 24-h consultant cover is not efficient. We aimed to develop a user-friendly toolbox (risk identification, outcome prediction and patient stratification) to support when to involve a senior surgeon. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We included 11,901 general surgery patients (10.0% emergencies) in a multicenter prospective cohort in China (2015-2016). Patient information and surgeons' seniority were compared between emergency and elective surgery with the same procedure codes. Risk indicators common in these two surgical timings and specific to emergency surgery were identified, and their clinical importance was evaluated by a working group of 48 experienced surgeons. Predictive models for mortality and morbidity were built using logistic regression models. Stratification rules were created to balance patients' risk and surgeons' caseload with an Acute Call Team (ACT) model. RESULTS: Emergency patients had significantly higher risks of mortality (3.6% vs 0.6%) and morbidity (7.8% vs 4.3%) than elective patients, but disproportionally fewer senior surgeons (59.9% vs 91.4%) were present. Using three risk indicators (American Society of Anesthesiologists score, age, blood urea nitrogen), C-statistic (95% CI) for prediction of emergency mortality was high [0.90 (0.84-0.96)]. It was less complex but equally accurate as two existing and validated models (0.86 [0.79-0.93] and 0.86 [0.77-0.95]). Using five indicators, C-statistic (95% CI) was moderate for prediction of overall morbidity [0.77 (0.72-0.83)], but high for severe morbidity [0.92 (0.88-0.97)]. Based on stratification rules of the ACT model, patient mortality and morbidity were 0.5% and 5.3% in the low-risk stratum (composing 64.6% of emergency caseload), and 15.9% and 29.0% in the very high-risk stratum (6.9% of caseload). CONCLUSION: These findings show the practical feasibility of using a risk assessment tool to direct senior surgeons' involvement in emergency general surgery.

Effect of a risk-stratified intervention strategy on surgical complications: experience from a multicentre prospective study in China.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a risk-stratified intervention strategy and evaluate its effect on reducing surgical complications. DESIGN: A multicentre prospective study with preintervention and postintervention stages: period I (January to June 2015) to develop the intervention strategy and period II (January to June 2016) to evaluate its effectiveness. SETTING: Four academic/teaching hospitals representing major Chinese administrative and economic regions. PARTICIPANTS: All surgical (elective and emergent) inpatients aged ≥14 years with a minimum hospital stay of 24 hours, who underwent a surgical procedure requiring an anesthesiologist. INTERVENTIONS: Targeted complications were grouped into three categories (common, specific, serious) according to their incidence pattern, severity and preventability. The corresponding expert consensus-generated interventions, which focused on both regulating medical practices and managing inherent patient-related risks, were implemented in a patient-tailored way via an electronic checklist system. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: Primary outcomes were (1) in-hospital death/confirmed death within 30 days after discharge and (2) complications during hospitalisation. Secondary outcome was length of stay (LOS). RESULTS: We included 51 030 patients in this analysis (eligibility rate 87.7%): 23 413 during period I, 27 617 during period II. Patients' characteristics were comparable during the two periods. After adjustment, the mean number of overall complications per 100 patients decreased from 8.84 to 7.56 (relative change 14.5%; P<0.0001). Specifically, complication rates decreased from 3.96 to 3.65 (7.8%) for common complications (P=0.0677), from 0.50 to 0.36 (28.0%) for specific complications (P=0.0153) and from 3.64 to 2.88 (20.9%) for serious complications (P<0.0001). From period I to period II, there was a decreasing trend for mortality (from 0.64 to 0.53; P=0.1031) and median LOS (by 1 day; P=0.8293), without statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing a risk-stratified intervention strategy may be a target-sensitive, convenient means to improve surgical outcomes.

Protocol for a multicentre, multistage, prospective study in China using system-based approaches for consistent improvement in surgical safety.

INTRODUCTION: Surgical safety has emerged as a crucial global health issue in the past two decades. Although several safety-enhancing tools are available, the pace of large-scale improvement remains slow, especially in developing countries such as China. The present project (Modern Surgery and Anesthesia Safety Management System Construction and Promotion) aims to develop and validate system-based integrated approaches for reducing perioperative deaths and complications using a multicentre, multistage design. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The project involves collection of clinical and outcome information for 1 20 000 surgical inpatients at four regionally representative academic/teaching general hospitals in China during three sequential stages: preparation and development, effectiveness validation and improvement of implementation for promotion. These big data will provide the evidence base for the formulation, validation and improvement processes of a system-based stratified safety intervention package covering the entire surgical pathway. Attention will be directed to managing inherent patient risks and regulating medical safety behaviour. Information technology will facilitate data collection and intervention implementation, provide supervision mechanisms and guarantee transfer of key patient safety messages between departments and personnel. Changes in rates of deaths, surgical complications during hospitalisation, length of stay, system adoption and implementation rates will be analysed to evaluate effectiveness and efficiency. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the institutional review boards of Peking Union Medical College Hospital, First Hospital of China Medical University, Qinghai Provincial People's Hospital, Xiangya Hospital Central South University and the Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences. Study findings will be disseminated via peer-reviewed journals, conference presentations and patent papers.