Bayesian spatial analysis of socio-demographic factors influencing pregnancy termination and its residual geographic variation among ever-married women of reproductive age in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Unsafe pregnancy termination is a major public health concern among reproductive-aged women in many developing countries. This study evaluated the socio-demographic characteristics, as well as residual spatial correlation in pregnancy termination among Bangladeshi women. METHODS: Secondary data was obtained from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey for the survey year 2014. Data included 17,863 samples of ever-married women between the ages of 15-49 years, which is a national representative sample in Bangladesh. Bayesian spatial logistic regression was used to assess the associations between socio-demographic characteristics and pregnancy termination. We flexibly modeled the non-linear effects of the continuous covariates while accounting for residual spatial correlation at the district level. RESULTS: Our findings revealed that about 19% of the respondents in Bangladesh reported ever had a pregnancy terminated. The risk of pregnancy termination was higher among women who had been working, had a higher wealth index, were in a conjugal relationship, had no children, were older and started their cohabitation earlier. Residual spatial patterns revealed the areas at a higher risk of pregnancy termination, including Panchagarh, Habiganj, and Sylhet after adjusting for covariates. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of pregnancy termination remains considerably high in Bangladesh. The study revealed significant associations of women's age at survey time, age at first cohabitation, occupational status, socio-economic status, marital status and the total number of children ever born with reporting having a history of terminated pregnancy among Bangladeshi ever-married women. The identified socio-demographic characteristics and districts at an increased likelihood of pregnancy termination can inform localized intervention and prevention strategies to improve the reproductive healthcare of women in Bangladesh.

A Dynamic Model of Opioid Overdose Deaths in Canada during the Co-Occurring Opioid Overdose Crisis and COVID-19 Pandemic.

With over 40,000 opioid-related overdose deaths between January 2016 and June 2023, the opioid-overdose crisis is a significant public health concern for Canada. The opioid crisis arose from a complex system involving prescription opioid use, the use of prescription opioids not as prescribed, and non-medical opioid use. The increasing presence of fentanyl and its analogues in the illegal drugs supply has been an important driver of the crisis. In response to the overdose crisis, governments at the municipal, provincial/territorial, and federal levels have increased actions to address opioid-related harms. At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns emerged over how the pandemic context may impact the opioid overdose crisis. Using evidence from a number of sources, we developed a dynamic mathematical model of opioid overdose death to simulate possible trajectories of overdose deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. This model incorporates information on prescription opioid use, opioid use not as prescribed, non-medical opioid use, the level of fentanyl in the drug supply, and a measure of the proportion deaths preventable by new interventions. The simulated scenarios provided decision makers with insight into possible trajectories of the opioid crisis in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the potential of the crisis to take a turn for the worse under certain assumptions, and thus, informing planning during a period when surveillance data were not yet available. This model provides a starting point for future models, and through its development, we have identified important data and evidence gaps that need to be filled in order to inform future action.

Acceptability and Potential Impact of the #chatsafe Suicide Postvention Response Among Young People Who Have Been Exposed to Suicide: Pilot Study.

BACKGROUND: Young people are more likely to be affected by suicide contagion, and there are concerns about the role social media plays in the development and maintenance of suicide clusters or in facilitating imitative suicidal behavior. However, social media also presents an opportunity to provide real-time and age-appropriate suicide prevention information, which could be an important component of suicide postvention activities. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to test an intervention designed to equip young people to communicate safely online about suicide (#chatsafe) with a sample of young people who had recently been exposed to a suicide or suicide attempt, with a view to determining the role social media can play as part of a postvention response. METHODS: A sample of 266 young people from Australia, aged 16 to 25 years, were recruited to participate in the study. They were eligible if they had been exposed to a suicide or knew of a suicide attempt in the past 2 years. All participants received the #chatsafe intervention, which comprised 6 pieces of social media content that were sent to them weekly via direct message through Instagram, Facebook, or Snapchat. Participants were assessed on a range of outcome measures (social media use, willingness to intervene against suicide, internet self-efficacy, confidence, and safety when communicating about suicide on social media platforms) at baseline, immediately after the intervention, and at 4-week follow-up. RESULTS: After the 6-week #chatsafe intervention, participants reported substantial improvements in their willingness to intervene against suicide online, their internet self-efficacy, and their perceived confidence and safety when communicating about suicide online. Overall, the participants reported that it was appropriate to receive the #chatsafe intervention via social media, and no iatrogenic effects were recorded. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that it is safe and acceptable to disseminate suicide prevention information entirely via social media among young people who have recently been exposed to a suicide or suicide attempt. Interventions such as #chatsafe could potentially mitigate the risk of distress and future suicidal behavior in young people by improving the quality and safety of online communication about suicide and, as such, can be an important component of delivering a postvention response to young people.

A Pilot Case-Control Study of the Social Media Activity Following Cluster and Non-Cluster Suicides in Australia.

Social media may play a role in the "contagion" mechanism thought to underpin suicide clusters. Our pilot case-control study presented a novel methodological approach to examining whether Facebook activity following cluster and non-cluster suicides differed. We used a scan statistic to identify suicide cluster cases occurring in spatiotemporal clusters and matched each case to 10 non-cluster control suicides. We identified the Facebook accounts of 3/48 cluster cases and 20/480 non-cluster controls and their respective friends-lists and retrieved 48 posthumous posts and replies (text segments) referring to the deceased for the former and 606 for the latter. We examined text segments for "putatively harmful" and "putatively protective" content (e.g., discussion of the suicide method vs. messages discouraging suicidal acts). We also used concept mapping, word-emotion association, and sentiment analysis and gauged user reactions to posts using the reactions-to-posts ratio. We found no "putatively harmful" or "putatively protective" content following any suicides. However, "family" and "son" concepts were more common for cluster cases and "xx", "sorry" and "loss" concepts were more common for non-cluster controls, and there were twice as many surprise- and disgust-associated words for cluster cases. Posts pertaining to non-cluster controls were four times as receptive as those about cluster cases. We hope that the approach we have presented may help to guide future research to explain suicide clusters and social-media contagion.