Childhood vaccine purchase costs in the public sector: past trends, future expectations.

OBJECTIVES: We examined recent public-sector trends in childhood vaccine costs and estimated future costs. METHODS: We used public-sector price data to calculate vaccine purchase cost per child for children aged 0 to 6 years from 1975 to 2001. We fit a linear regression model to historical data and then used it to project costs per child from 2002 to 2020, adjusted to 2001 US dollars. RESULTS: Controlling for inflation, the cost of vaccine purchase per child climbed from $10 in 1975 to $385 in 2001. The cost of vaccine purchase in the year 2020 following recommendation of 7 additional vaccines is estimated to be $1225 per child (95% confidence interval = $891, $1559). CONCLUSIONS: The cost per child for recommended vaccines at public-sector prices may triple over the next 2 decades. These projections have implications for vaccine financing at federal and state levels.