Use of ambiguous detections to improve estimates from species distribution models.

As large carnivores recover throughout Europe, their distribution needs to be studied to determine their conservation status and assess the potential for human-carnivore conflicts. However, efficient monitoring of many large carnivore species is challenging due to their rarity, elusive behavior, and large home ranges. Their monitoring can include opportunistic sightings from citizens in addition to designed surveys. Two types of detection errors may occur in such monitoring schemes: false negatives and false positives. False-negative detections can be accounted for in species distribution models (SDMs) that deal with imperfect detection. False-positive detections, due to species misidentification, have rarely been accounted for in SDMs. Generally, researchers use ad hoc data-filtering methods to discard ambiguous observations prior to analysis. These practices may discard valuable ecological information on the distribution of a species. We investigated the costs and benefits of including data types that may include false positives rather than discarding them for SDMs of large carnivores. We used a dynamic occupancy model that simultaneously accounts for false negatives and positives to jointly analyze data that included both unambiguous detections and ambiguous detections. We used simulations to compare the performances of our model with a model fitted on unambiguous data only. We tested the 2 models in 4 scenarios in which parameters that control false-positive detections and true detections varied. We applied our model to data from the monitoring of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in the European Alps. The addition of ambiguous detections increased the precision of parameter estimates. For the Eurasian lynx, incorporating ambiguous detections produced more precise estimates of the ecological parameters and revealed additional occupied sites in areas where the species is likely expanding. Overall, we found that ambiguous data should be considered when studying the distribution of large carnivores through the use of dynamic occupancy models that account for misidentification.

Rehabilitation and release of orphaned Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in Europe: Implications for management and conservation.

Rehabilitation of injured or immature individuals has become an increasingly used conservation and management tool. However, scientific evaluation of rehabilitations is rare, raising concern about post-release welfare as well as the cost-effectiveness of spending scarce financial resources. Over the past 20 years, events of juvenile Eurasian lynx presumably orphaned have been observed in many European lynx populations. To guide the management of orphaned lynx, we documented survival, rehabilitation and fate after the release and evaluated the potential relevance of lynx orphan rehabilitation for population management and conservation implications. Data on 320 orphaned lynx was collected from 1975 to 2022 from 13 countries and nine populations. The majority of orphaned lynx (55%) were taken to rehabilitation centres or other enclosures. A total of 66 orphans were released back to nature. The portion of rehabilitated lynx who survived at least one year after release was 0.66. Release location was the best predictor for their survival. Of the 66 released lynx, ten have reproduced at least once (8 females and 2 males). Conservation implications of rehabilitation programmes include managing genetic diversity in small, isolated populations and reintroducing species to historical habitats. The lynx is a perfect model species as most reintroduced populations in Central Europe show significantly lower observed heterozygosity than most of the autochthonous populations, indicating that reintroduction bottlenecks, isolation and post-release management have long-term consequences on the genetic composition of populations. The release of translocated orphans could be a valuable contribution to Eurasian lynx conservation in Europe. It is recommended to release orphans at the distribution edge or in the frame of reintroduction projects instead of a release in the core area of a population where it is not necessary from a demographic and genetic point of view. Rehabilitation programmes can have conservation implications that extend far beyond individual welfare benefits.

Transboundary Monitoring of the Wolf Alpine Population over 21 Years and Seven Countries.

Wolves have large spatial requirements and their expansion in Europe is occurring over national boundaries, hence the need to develop monitoring programs at the population level. Wolves in the Alps are defined as a functional population and management unit. The range of this wolf Alpine population now covers seven countries: Italy, France, Austria, Switzerland, Slovenia, Liechtenstein and Germany, making the development of a joint and coordinated monitoring program particularly challenging. In the framework of the Wolf Alpine Group (WAG), researchers developed uniform criteria for the assessment and interpretation of field data collected in the frame of different national monitoring programs. This standardization allowed for data comparability across borders and the joint evaluation of distribution and consistency at the population level. We documented the increase in the number of wolf reproductive units (packs and pairs) over 21 years, from 1 in 1993-1994 up to 243 units in 2020-2021, and examined the pattern of expansion over the Alps. This long-term and large-scale approach is a successful example of transboundary monitoring of a large carnivore population that, despite administrative fragmentation, provides robust indexes of population size and distribution that are of relevance for wolf conservation and management at the transnational Alpine scale.

Long-term changes in habitat selection and prey spectrum in a reintroduced Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) population in Switzerland.

When wild-caught Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) from the Slovak Carpathian Mountains were reintroduced to Central Switzerland in the early 1970s and spread through the north-western Swiss Alps (NWA), they faced a largely unfamiliar landscape with strongly fragmented forests, high elevations, and intense human land use. For more than 30 years, radio-collared lynx have been monitored during three different project periods (in the 1980s, 1990s, and 2010s). Our study explored, how lynx over generations have learned to adjust to the alpine environment. We predicted that (1) lynx nowadays select more strongly for open habitats, higher elevations, and steep slopes compared to the early stages of recolonization and that (2) consequently, there were significant changes in the Eurasian lynx' prey spectrum. To test our predictions, we analyzed telemetry data (VHF, GPS) of 13 adult resident lynx in the NWA over 35 years, using Resource Selection Functions. Furthermore, we compared kills recorded from different individuals inhabiting the same region during three project periods. In general, lynx preferred forested areas, but over the years, they avoided open habitat less. Compared to the early stage of the recolonization, lynx in the most recent project period selected for higher elevations and the proportion of chamois in their prey spectrum surmounted that of roe deer. Potential driving factors for the observed changes could be increasing tolerance to human presence, intraspecific competition, or fitness benefits through exploitation of new resources. Long-term studies like ours provide important insight into how animals can respond to sudden environmental changes, e.g., in the course of translocations into new areas or anthropogenic alterations of their habitats.

Timing and synchrony of birth in Eurasian lynx across Europe.

The ecology and evolution of reproductive timing and synchrony have been a topic of great interest in evolutionary ecology for decades. Originally motivated by questions related to behavioral and reproductive adaptation to environmental conditions, the topic has acquired new relevance in the face of climate change. However, there has been relatively little research on reproductive phenology in mammalian carnivores. The Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) occurs across the Eurasian continent, covering three of the four main climate regions of the world. Thus, their distribution includes a large variation in climatic conditions, making it an ideal species to explore reproductive phenology. Here, we used data on multiple reproductive events from 169 lynx females across Europe. Mean birth date was May 28 (April 23 to July 1), but was ~10 days later in northern Europe than in central and southern Europe. Birth dates were relatively synchronized across Europe, but more so in the north than in the south. Timing of birth was delayed by colder May temperatures. Severe and cold weather may affect neonatal survival via hypothermia and avoiding inclement weather early in the season may select against early births, especially at northern latitudes. Overall, only about half of the kittens born survived until onset of winter but whether kittens were born relatively late or early did not affect kitten survival. Lynx are strict seasonal breeders but still show a degree of flexibility to adapt the timing of birth to surrounding environmental conditions. We argue that lynx give birth later when exposed to colder spring temperatures and have more synchronized births when the window of favorable conditions for raising kittens is shorter. This suggests that lynx are well adapted to different environmental conditions, from dry and warm climates to alpine, boreal, and arctic climates. This variation in reproductive timing will be favorable in times of climate change, as organisms with high plasticity are more likely to adjust to new environmental conditions.

Spatial capture-recapture with multiple noninvasive marks: An application to camera-trapping data of the European wildcat (Felis silvestris) using R package multimark.

In Switzerland, the European wildcat (Felis silvestris), a native felid, is protected by national law. In recent decades, the wildcat has slowly returned to much of its original range and may have even expanded into new areas that were not known to be occupied before. For the implementation of efficient conservation actions, reliable information about the status and trend of population size and density is crucial. But so far, only one reliable estimate of density in Switzerland was produced in the northern Swiss Jura Mountains. Wildcats are relatively rare and elusive, but camera trapping has proven to be an effective method for monitoring felids. We developed and tested a monitoring protocol using camera trapping in the northern Jura Mountains (cantons of Bern and Jura) in an area of 100 km2. During 60 days, we obtained 105 pictures of phenotypical wildcats of which 98 were suitable for individual identification. We identified 13 individuals from both sides and, additionally, 5 single right-sided flanks and 3 single left-sided flanks that could not be matched to unique individuals. We analyzed the camera-trap data using the R package multimark, which has been extended to include a novel spatial capture-recapture model for encounter histories that include multiple "noninvasive" marks, such as bilaterally asymmetrical left- and right-sided flanks, that can be difficult (or impossible) to reliably match to individuals. Here, we present this model in detail for the first time. Based on a "semi-complete" data likelihood, the model is less computationally demanding than Bayesian alternatives that rely on a data-augmented complete data likelihood. The spatially explicit capture-recapture model estimated a wildcat density (95% credible interval) of 26 (17-36) per 100 km2 suitable habitat. Our integrated model produced higher abundance and density estimates with improved precision compared to single-sided analyses, suggesting spatially explicit capture-recapture methods with multiple "noninvasive" marks can improve our ability to monitor wildcat population status.

Spatial density estimates of Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in the French Jura and Vosges Mountains.

Obtaining estimates of animal population density is a key step in providing sound conservation and management strategies for wildlife. For many large carnivores however, estimating density is difficult because these species are elusive and wide-ranging. Here, we focus on providing the first density estimates of the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) in the French Jura and Vosges mountains. We sampled a total of 413 camera trapping sites (with two cameras per site) between January 2011 and April 2016 in seven study areas across seven counties of the French Jura and Vosges mountains. We obtained 592 lynx detections over 19,035 trap days in the Jura mountains and 0 detection over 6,804 trap days in the Vosges mountains. Based on coat patterns, we identified a total number of 92 unique individuals from photographs, including 16 females, 13 males, and 63 individuals of unknown sex. Using spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models, we estimated abundance in the study areas between 5 (SE = 0.1) and 29 (0.2) lynx and density between 0.24 (SE = 0.02) and 0.91 (SE = 0.03) lynx per 100 km2. We also provide a comparison with nonspatial density estimates and discuss the observed discrepancies. Our study is yet another example of the advantage of combining SCR methods and noninvasive sampling techniques to estimate density for elusive and wide-ranging species, like large carnivores. While the estimated densities in the French Jura mountains are comparable to other lynx populations in Europe, the fact that we detected no lynx in the Vosges mountains is alarming. Connectivity should be encouraged between the French Jura mountains, the Vosges mountains, and the Palatinate Forest in Germany where a reintroduction program is currently ongoing. Our density estimates will help in setting a baseline conservation status for the lynx population in France.

Spatiotemporal spread of sarcoptic mange in the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) in Switzerland over more than 60 years: lessons learnt from comparative analysis of multiple surveillance tools.

BACKGROUND: Sarcoptic mange is a contagious skin disease of wild and domestic mammals caused by the mite Sarcoptes scabiei. Reports of sarcoptic mange in wildlife increased worldwide in the second half of the 20th century, especially since the 1990s. The aim of this study was to provide new insights into the epidemiology of mange by (i) documenting the emergence of sarcoptic mange in the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) in the last decades in Switzerland; and (ii) describing its spatiotemporal spread combining data obtained through different surveillance methods. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of archived material together with prospective data collection delivered a large dataset from the 19th century to 2018. Methods included: (i) a review of historical literature; (ii) screening of necropsy reports from general health surveillance (1958-2018); (iii) screening of data on mange (1968-1992) collected during the sylvatic rabies eradication campaign; (iv) a questionnaire survey (<1980-2017) and (v) evaluation of camera-trap bycatch data (2005-2018). RESULTS: Sarcoptic mange in red foxes was reported as early as 1835 in Switzerland. The first case diagnosed in the framework of the general health surveillance was in 1959. Prior to 1980, sarcoptic mange occurred in non-adjacent surveillance districts scattered all over the country. During the period of the rabies epidemic (1970s-early 1990s), the percentage of foxes tested for rabies with sarcoptic mange significantly decreased in subregions with rabies, whereas it remained high in the few rabies-free subregions. Sarcoptic mange re-emerged in the mid-1990s and continuously spread during the 2000-2010s, to finally extend to the whole country in 2017. The yearly prevalence of mange in foxes estimated by camera-trapping ranged from 0.1-12%. CONCLUSIONS: Sarcoptic mange has likely been endemic in Switzerland as well as in other European countries at least since the mid-19th century. The rabies epidemics seem to have influenced the pattern of spread of mange in several locations, revealing an interesting example of disease interaction in free-ranging wildlife populations. The combination of multiple surveillance tools to study the long-term dynamics of sarcoptic mange in red foxes in Switzerland proved to be a successful strategy, which underlined the usefulness of questionnaire surveys.

Scent-marking behaviour and social dynamics in a wild population of Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx.

Scent-marking is widespread among mammals and has been observed in many felid species. Although the behaviour is well-described, little is known about its function in wild felid populations. We investigated patterns of scent-marking and its role in intra- and intersexual communication among resident and non-resident Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx by observing interactions among wild lynx at natural marking sites by means of infrared camera traps. Marking activity of resident animals showed a peak during the mating season and was lowest during the time when females gave birth and lactated. Both sexes scent-marked, but male lynx visited marking sites much more often than females and marked relatively more often when visiting a site. Most visits to marking sites were by residents but we also observed scent-marking by non-residents. Juveniles were never observed marking. We found no evidence of lynx regularly renewing scent-marks after a certain 'expiry date' but the presence of a strange scent-mark triggered over-marking. Males responded similarly to the presence of another individual's scent-mark, irrespective of whether it was the top- or the underlying scent-mark in a mixture of scent-marks they encountered. Our results suggest that marking sites could serve as 'chemical bulletin boards', where male lynx advertise their presence and gain information on ownership relationships in a given area. Females placed their urine marks on top of the ones left by resident males, but further studies are needed to explain the functions of over-marking in females.

Optimizing the size of the area surveyed for monitoring a Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) population in the Swiss Alps by means of photographic capture-recapture.

We studied the influence of surveyed area size on density estimates by means of camera-trapping in a low-density felid population (1-2 individuals/100 km(2) ). We applied non-spatial capture-recapture (CR) and spatial CR (SCR) models for Eurasian lynx during winter 2005/2006 in the northwestern Swiss Alps by sampling an area divided into 5 nested plots ranging from 65 to 760 km(2) . CR model density estimates (95% CI) for models M0 and Mh decreased from 2.61 (1.55-3.68) and 3.6 (1.62-5.57) independent lynx/100 km(2) , respectively, in the smallest to 1.20 (1.04-1.35) and 1.26 (0.89-1.63) independent lynx/100 km(2) , respectively, in the largest area surveyed. SCR model density estimates also decreased with increasing sampling area but not significantly. High individual range overlaps in relatively small areas (the edge effect) is the most plausible reason for this positive bias in the CR models. Our results confirm that SCR models are much more robust to changes in trap array size than CR models, thus avoiding overestimation of density in smaller areas. However, when a study is concerned with monitoring population changes, large spatial efforts (area surveyed ≥760 km(2) ) are required to obtain reliable and precise density estimates with these population densities and recapture rates.