Pan-Arctic soil moisture control on tundra carbon sequestration and plant productivity.

Long-term atmospheric CO2 concentration records have suggested a reduction in the positive effect of warming on high-latitude carbon uptake since the 1990s. A variety of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the reduced net carbon sink of northern ecosystems with increased air temperature, including water stress on vegetation and increased respiration over recent decades. However, the lack of consistent long-term carbon flux and in situ soil moisture data has severely limited our ability to identify the mechanisms responsible for the recent reduced carbon sink strength. In this study, we used a record of nearly 100 site-years of eddy covariance data from 11 continuous permafrost tundra sites distributed across the circumpolar Arctic to test the temperature (expressed as growing degree days, GDD) responses of gross primary production (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and ecosystem respiration (ER) at different periods of the summer (early, peak, and late summer) including dominant tundra vegetation classes (graminoids and mosses, and shrubs). We further tested GPP, NEE, and ER relationships with soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit to identify potential moisture limitations on plant productivity and net carbon exchange. Our results show a decrease in GPP with rising GDD during the peak summer (July) for both vegetation classes, and a significant relationship between the peak summer GPP and soil moisture after statistically controlling for GDD in a partial correlation analysis. These results suggest that tundra ecosystems might not benefit from increased temperature as much as suggested by several terrestrial biosphere models, if decreased soil moisture limits the peak summer plant productivity, reducing the ability of these ecosystems to sequester carbon during the summer.

Carbon uptake in Eurasian boreal forests dominates the high-latitude net ecosystem carbon budget.

Arctic-boreal landscapes are experiencing profound warming, along with changes in ecosystem moisture status and disturbance from fire. This region is of global importance in terms of carbon feedbacks to climate, yet the sign (sink or source) and magnitude of the Arctic-boreal carbon budget within recent years remains highly uncertain. Here, we provide new estimates of recent (2003-2015) vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco ), net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE; Reco - GPP), and terrestrial methane (CH4 ) emissions for the Arctic-boreal zone using a satellite data-driven process-model for northern ecosystems (TCFM-Arctic), calibrated and evaluated using measurements from >60 tower eddy covariance (EC) sites. We used TCFM-Arctic to obtain daily 1-km2 flux estimates and annual carbon budgets for the pan-Arctic-boreal region. Across the domain, the model indicated an overall average NEE sink of -850 Tg CO2 -C year-1 . Eurasian boreal zones, especially those in Siberia, contributed to a majority of the net sink. In contrast, the tundra biome was relatively carbon neutral (ranging from small sink to source). Regional CH4 emissions from tundra and boreal wetlands (not accounting for aquatic CH4 ) were estimated at 35 Tg CH4 -C year-1 . Accounting for additional emissions from open water aquatic bodies and from fire, using available estimates from the literature, reduced the total regional NEE sink by 21% and shifted many far northern tundra landscapes, and some boreal forests, to a net carbon source. This assessment, based on in situ observations and models, improves our understanding of the high-latitude carbon status and also indicates a continued need for integrated site-to-regional assessments to monitor the vulnerability of these ecosystems to climate change.

Lowering water table reduces carbon sink strength and carbon stocks in northern peatlands.

Peatlands at high latitudes have accumulated >400 Pg carbon (C) because saturated soil and cold temperatures suppress C decomposition. This substantial amount of C in Arctic and Boreal peatlands is potentially subject to increased decomposition if the water table (WT) decreases due to climate change, including permafrost thaw-related drying. Here, we optimize a version of the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems model (ORCHIDEE-PCH4) using site-specific observations to investigate changes in CO2 and CH4 fluxes as well as C stock responses to an experimentally manipulated decrease of WT at six northern peatlands. The unmanipulated control peatlands, with the WT <20 cm on average (seasonal max up to 45 cm) below the surface, currently act as C sinks in most years (58 ± 34 g C m-2  year-1 ; including 6 ± 7 g C-CH4 m-2  year-1 emission). We found, however, that lowering the WT by 10 cm reduced the CO2 sink by 13 ± 15 g C m-2  year-1 and decreased CH4 emission by 4 ± 4 g CH4 m-2  year-1 , thus accumulating less C over 100 years (0.2 ± 0.2 kg C m-2 ). Yet, the reduced emission of CH4 , which has a larger greenhouse warming potential, resulted in a net decrease in greenhouse gas balance by 310 ± 360 g CO2-eq  m-2  year-1 . Peatlands with the initial WT close to the soil surface were more vulnerable to C loss: Non-permafrost peatlands lost >2 kg C m-2 over 100 years when WT is lowered by 50 cm, while permafrost peatlands temporally switched from C sinks to sources. These results highlight that reductions in C storage capacity in response to drying of northern peatlands are offset in part by reduced CH4 emissions, thus slightly reducing the positive carbon climate feedbacks of peatlands under a warmer and drier future climate scenario.

Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties.

The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2 ) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990-2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2 ) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE -46 and -29 g C m-2  yr-1 , respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and -2 g C m-2  yr-1 ). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990-2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Phosphorus alleviation of nitrogen-suppressed methane sink in global grasslands.

Grassland ecosystems account for more than 10% of the global CH4 sink in soils. A 4-year field experiment found that addition of P alone did not affect CH4 uptake and experimental addition of N alone significantly suppressed CH4 uptake, whereas concurrent N and P additions suppressed CH4 uptake to a lesser degree. A meta-analysis including 382 data points in global grasslands corroborated these findings. Global extrapolation with an empirical modelling approach estimated that contemporary N addition suppresses CH4 sink in global grassland by 11.4% and concurrent N and P deposition alleviates this suppression to 5.8%. The P alleviation of N-suppressed CH4 sink is primarily attributed to substrate competition, defined as the competition between ammonium and CH4 for the methane mono-oxygenase enzyme. The N and P impacts on CH4 uptake indicate that projected increases in N and P depositions might substantially affect CH4 uptake and alter the global CH4 cycle.

Snow melt stimulates ecosystem respiration in Arctic ecosystems.

Cold seasons in Arctic ecosystems are increasingly important to the annual carbon balance of these vulnerable ecosystems. Arctic winters are largely harsh and inaccessible leading historic data gaps during that time. Until recently, cold seasons have been assumed to have negligible impacts on the annual carbon balance but as data coverage increases and the Arctic warms, the cold season has been shown to account for over half of annual methane (CH4 ) emissions and can offset summer photosynthetic carbon dioxide (CO2 ) uptake. Freeze-thaw cycle dynamics play a critical role in controlling cold season CO2 and CH4 loss, but the relationship has not been extensively studied. Here, we analyze freeze-thaw processes through in situ CO2 and CH4 fluxes in conjunction with soil cores for physical structure and porewater samples for redox biogeochemistry. We find a movement of water toward freezing fronts in soil cores, leaving air spaces in soils, which allows for rapid infiltration of oxygen-rich snow melt in spring as shown by oxidized iron in porewater. The snow melt period coincides with rising ecosystem respiration and can offset up to 41% of the summer CO2 uptake. Our study highlights this important seasonal process and shows spring greenhouse gas emissions are largely due to production from respiration instead of only bursts of stored gases. Further warming is projected to result in increases of snowpack and deeper thaws, which could increase this ecosystem respiration dominate snow melt period causing larger greenhouse gas losses during spring.

Increased high-latitude photosynthetic carbon gain offset by respiration carbon loss during an anomalous warm winter to spring transition.

Arctic and boreal ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon (C) budget, and whether they act as a future net C sink or source depends on climate and environmental change. Here, we used complementary in situ measurements, model simulations, and satellite observations to investigate the net carbon dioxide (CO2 ) seasonal cycle and its climatic and environmental controls across Alaska and northwestern Canada during the anomalously warm winter to spring conditions of 2015 and 2016 (relative to 2010-2014). In the warm spring, we found that photosynthesis was enhanced more than respiration, leading to greater CO2 uptake. However, photosynthetic enhancement from spring warming was partially offset by greater ecosystem respiration during the preceding anomalously warm winter, resulting in nearly neutral effects on the annual net CO2 balance. Eddy covariance CO2 flux measurements showed that air temperature has a primary influence on net CO2 exchange in winter and spring, while soil moisture has a primary control on net CO2 exchange in the fall. The net CO2 exchange was generally more moisture limited in the boreal region than in the Arctic tundra. Our analysis indicates complex seasonal interactions of underlying C cycle processes in response to changing climate and hydrology that may not manifest in changes in net annual CO2 exchange. Therefore, a better understanding of the seasonal response of C cycle processes may provide important insights for predicting future carbon-climate feedbacks and their consequences on atmospheric CO2 dynamics in the northern high latitudes.

Cold season emissions dominate the Arctic tundra methane budget.

Arctic terrestrial ecosystems are major global sources of methane (CH4); hence, it is important to understand the seasonal and climatic controls on CH4 emissions from these systems. Here, we report year-round CH4 emissions from Alaskan Arctic tundra eddy flux sites and regional fluxes derived from aircraft data. We find that emissions during the cold season (September to May) account for ≥ 50% of the annual CH4 flux, with the highest emissions from noninundated upland tundra. A major fraction of cold season emissions occur during the "zero curtain" period, when subsurface soil temperatures are poised near 0 °C. The zero curtain may persist longer than the growing season, and CH4 emissions are enhanced when the duration is extended by a deep thawed layer as can occur with thick snow cover. Regional scale fluxes of CH4 derived from aircraft data demonstrate the large spatial extent of late season CH4 emissions. Scaled to the circumpolar Arctic, cold season fluxes from tundra total 12 ± 5 (95% confidence interval) Tg CH4 y(-1), ∼ 25% of global emissions from extratropical wetlands, or ∼ 6% of total global wetland methane emissions. The dominance of late-season emissions, sensitivity to soil environmental conditions, and importance of dry tundra are not currently simulated in most global climate models. Because Arctic warming disproportionally impacts the cold season, our results suggest that higher cold-season CH4 emissions will result from observed and predicted increases in snow thickness, active layer depth, and soil temperature, representing important positive feedbacks on climate warming.

Spring photosynthetic onset and net CO2 uptake in Alaska triggered by landscape thawing.

The springtime transition to regional-scale onset of photosynthesis and net ecosystem carbon uptake in boreal and tundra ecosystems are linked to the soil freeze-thaw state. We present evidence from diagnostic and inversion models constrained by satellite fluorescence and airborne CO2 from 2012 to 2014 indicating the timing and magnitude of spring carbon uptake in Alaska correlates with landscape thaw and ecoregion. Landscape thaw in boreal forests typically occurs in late April (DOY 111 ± 7) with a 29 ± 6 day lag until photosynthetic onset. North Slope tundra thaws 3 weeks later (DOY 133 ± 5) but experiences only a 20 ± 5 day lag until photosynthetic onset. These time lag differences reflect efficient cold season adaptation in tundra shrub and the longer dehardening period for boreal evergreens. Despite the short transition from thaw to photosynthetic onset in tundra, synchrony of tundra respiration with snow melt and landscape thaw delays the transition from net carbon loss (at photosynthetic onset) to net uptake by 13 ± 7 days, thus reducing the tundra net carbon uptake period. Two global CO2 inversions using a CASA-GFED model prior estimate earlier northern high latitude net carbon uptake compared to our regional inversion, which we attribute to (i) early photosynthetic-onset model prior bias, (ii) inverse method (scaling factor + optimization window), and (iii) sparsity of available Alaskan CO2 observations. Another global inversion with zero prior estimates the same timing for net carbon uptake as the regional model but smaller seasonal amplitude. The analysis of Alaskan eddy covariance observations confirms regional scale findings for tundra, but indicates that photosynthesis and net carbon uptake occur up to 1 month earlier in evergreens than captured by models or CO2 inversions, with better correlation to above-freezing air temperature than date of primary thaw. Further collection and analysis of boreal evergreen species over multiple years and at additional subarctic flux towers are critically needed.

The uncertain climate footprint of wetlands under human pressure.

Significant climate risks are associated with a positive carbon-temperature feedback in northern latitude carbon-rich ecosystems, making an accurate analysis of human impacts on the net greenhouse gas balance of wetlands a priority. Here, we provide a coherent assessment of the climate footprint of a network of wetland sites based on simultaneous and quasi-continuous ecosystem observations of CO2 and CH4 fluxes. Experimental areas are located both in natural and in managed wetlands and cover a wide range of climatic regions, ecosystem types, and management practices. Based on direct observations we predict that sustained CH4 emissions in natural ecosystems are in the long term (i.e., several centuries) typically offset by CO2 uptake, although with large spatiotemporal variability. Using a space-for-time analogy across ecological and climatic gradients, we represent the chronosequence from natural to managed conditions to quantify the "cost" of CH4 emissions for the benefit of net carbon sequestration. With a sustained pulse-response radiative forcing model, we found a significant increase in atmospheric forcing due to land management, in particular for wetland converted to cropland. Our results quantify the role of human activities on the climate footprint of northern wetlands and call for development of active mitigation strategies for managed wetlands and new guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) accounting for both sustained CH4 emissions and cumulative CO2 exchange.

Microbial community structure and soil pH correspond to methane production in Arctic Alaska soils.

While there is no doubt that biogenic methane production in the Arctic is an important aspect of global methane emissions, the relative roles of microbial community characteristics and soil environmental conditions in controlling Arctic methane emissions remains uncertain. Here, relevant methane-cycling microbial groups were investigated at two remote Arctic sites with respect to soil potential methane production (PMP). Percent abundances of methanogens and iron-reducing bacteria correlated with increased PMP, while methanotrophs correlated with decreased PMP. Interestingly, α-diversity of the methanogens was positively correlated with PMP, while ß-diversity was unrelated to PMP. The ß-diversity of the entire microbial community, however, was related to PMP. Shannon diversity was a better correlate of PMP than Simpson diversity across analyses, while rarefied species richness was a weak correlate of PMP. These results demonstrate the following: first, soil pH and microbial community structure both probably control methane production in Arctic soils. Second, there may be high functional redundancy in the methanogens with regard to methane production. Third, iron-reducing bacteria co-occur with methanogens in Arctic soils, and iron-reduction-mediated effects on methanogenesis may be controlled by α- and ß-diversity. And finally, species evenness and rare species abundances may be driving relationships between microbial groups, influencing Arctic methane production.

Tundra water budget and implications of precipitation underestimation.

Difficulties in obtaining accurate precipitation measurements have limited meaningful hydrologic assessment for over a century due to performance challenges of conventional snowfall and rainfall gauges in windy environments. Here, we compare snowfall observations and bias adjusted snowfall to end-of-winter snow accumulation measurements on the ground for 16 years (1999-2014) and assess the implication of precipitation underestimation on the water balance for a low-gradient tundra wetland near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska (2007-2009). In agreement with other studies, and not accounting for sublimation, conventional snowfall gauges captured 23-56% of end-of-winter snow accumulation. Once snowfall and rainfall are bias adjusted, long-term annual precipitation estimates more than double (from 123 to 274 mm), highlighting the risk of studies using conventional or unadjusted precipitation that dramatically under-represent water balance components. Applying conventional precipitation information to the water balance analysis produced consistent storage deficits (79 to 152 mm) that were all larger than the largest actual deficit (75 mm), which was observed in the unusually low rainfall summer of 2007. Year-to-year variability in adjusted rainfall (±33 mm) was larger than evapotranspiration (±13 mm). Measured interannual variability in partitioning of snow into runoff (29% in 2008 to 68% in 2009) in years with similar end-of-winter snow accumulation (180 and 164 mm, respectively) highlights the importance of the previous summer's rainfall (25 and 60 mm, respectively) on spring runoff production. Incorrect representation of precipitation can therefore have major implications for Arctic water budget descriptions that in turn can alter estimates of carbon and energy fluxes.

Rapid leaf development drives the seasonal pattern of volatile organic compound (VOC) fluxes in a 'coppiced' bioenergy poplar plantation.

Leaves of fast-growing, woody bioenergy crops often emit volatile organic compounds (VOC). Some reactive VOC (especially isoprene) play a key role in climate forcing and may negatively affect local air quality. We monitored the seasonal exchange of VOC using the eddy covariance technique in a 'coppiced' poplar plantation. The complex interactions of VOC fluxes with climatic and physiological variables were also explored by using an artificial neural network (Self Organizing Map). Isoprene and methanol were the most abundant VOC emitted by the plantation. Rapid development of the canopy (and thus of the leaf area index, LAI) was associated with high methanol emissions and high rates of gross primary production (GPP) since the beginning of the growing season, while the onset of isoprene emission was delayed. The highest emissions of isoprene, and of isoprene photo-oxidation products (Methyl Vinyl Ketone and Methacrolein, iox ), occurred on the hottest and sunniest days, when GPP and evapotranspiration were highest, and formaldehyde was significantly deposited. Canopy senescence enhanced the exchange of oxygenated VOC. The accuracy of methanol and isoprene emission simulations with the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature increased by applying a function to modify their basal emission factors, accounting for seasonality of GPP or LAI.

Thermokarst landscape exhibits large nitrous oxide emissions in Alaska's coastal polygonal tundra.

Global atmospheric concentrations of nitrous oxide have been increasing over previous decades with emerging research suggesting the Arctic as a notable contributor. Thermokarst processes, increasing temperature, and changes in drainage can cause degradation of polygonal tundra landscape features resulting in elevated, well-drained, unvegetated soil surfaces that exhibit large nitrous oxide emissions. Here, we outline the magnitude and some of the dominant factors controlling variability in emissions for these thermokarst landscape features in the North Slope of Alaska. We measured strong nitrous oxide emissions during the growing season from unvegetated high centered polygons (median (mean) = 104.7 (187.7) µg N2O-N m-2 h-1), substantially higher than mean rates associated with Arctic tundra wetlands and of similar magnitude to unvegetated hotspots in peat plateaus and palsa mires. In the absence of vegetation, isotopic enrichment of 15N in these thermokarst features indicates a greater influence of microbial processes, (denitrification and nitrification) from barren soil. Findings reveal that the thermokarst features discussed here (~1.5% of the study area) are likely a notable source of nitrous oxide emissions, as inferred from chamber-based estimates. Growing season emissions, estimated at 16 (28) mg N2O-N ha-1 h-1, may be large enough to affect landscape-level greenhouse gas budgets.

Growing season and spatial variations of carbon fluxes of Arctic and boreal ecosystems in Alaska (USA).

To better understand the spatial and temporal dynamics of CO2 exchange between Arctic ecosystems and the atmosphere, we synthesized CO2 flux data, measured in eight Arctic tundra and five boreal ecosystems across Alaska (USA) and identified growing season and spatial variations of the fluxes and environmental controlling factors. For the period examined, all of the boreal and seven of the eight Arctic tundra ecosystems acted as CO2 sinks during the growing season. Seasonal patterns of the CO2 fluxes were mostly determined by air temperature, except ecosystem respiration (RE) of tundra. For the tundra ecosystems, the spatial variation of gross primary productivity (GPP) and net CO2 sink strength were explained by growing season length, whereas RE increased with growing degree days. For boreal ecosystems, the spatial variation of net CO2 sink strength was mostly determined by recovery of GPP from fire disturbance. Satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) was a better index to explain the spatial variations of GPP and NEE of the ecosystems in Alaska than were the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI). Multiple regression models using growing degree days, growing season length, and satellite-derived LAI explained much of the spatial variation in GPP and net CO2 exchange among the tundra and boreal ecosystems. The high sensitivity of the sink strength to growing season length indicated that the tundra ecosystem could increase CO2 sink strength under expected future warming, whereas ecosystem compositions associated with fire disturbance could play a major role in carbon release from boreal ecosystems.

Earlier snowmelt may lead to late season declines in plant productivity and carbon sequestration in Arctic tundra ecosystems.

Arctic warming is affecting snow cover and soil hydrology, with consequences for carbon sequestration in tundra ecosystems. The scarcity of observations in the Arctic has limited our understanding of the impact of covarying environmental drivers on the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems. In this study, we address some of these uncertainties through a novel record of 119 site-years of summer data from eddy covariance towers representing dominant tundra vegetation types located on continuous permafrost in the Arctic. Here we found that earlier snowmelt was associated with more tundra net CO2 sequestration and higher gross primary productivity (GPP) only in June and July, but with lower net carbon sequestration and lower GPP in August. Although higher evapotranspiration (ET) can result in soil drying with the progression of the summer, we did not find significantly lower soil moisture with earlier snowmelt, nor evidence that water stress affected GPP in the late growing season. Our results suggest that the expected increased CO2 sequestration arising from Arctic warming and the associated increase in growing season length may not materialize if tundra ecosystems are not able to continue sequestering CO2 later in the season.

Carbon response of tundra ecosystems to advancing greenup and snowmelt in Alaska.

The ongoing disproportionate increases in temperature and precipitation over the Arctic region may greatly alter the latitudinal gradients in greenup and snowmelt timings as well as associated carbon dynamics of tundra ecosystems. Here we use remotely-sensed and ground-based datasets and model results embedding snowmelt timing in phenology at seven tundra flux tower sites in Alaska during 2001-2018, showing that the carbon response to early greenup or delayed snowmelt varies greatly depending upon local climatic limits. Increases in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) due to early greenup were amplified at the higher latitudes where temperature and water strongly colimit vegetation growth, while NEP decreases due to delayed snowmelt were alleviated by a relief of water stress. Given the high likelihood of more frequent delayed snowmelt at higher latitudes, this study highlights the importance of understanding the role of snowmelt timing in vegetation growth and terrestrial carbon cycles across warming Arctic ecosystems.

Impact of fertiliser, water table, and warming on celery yield and CO2 and CH4 emissions from fenland agricultural peat.

Peatlands are globally important areas for carbon preservation; although covering only 3% of global land area, they store 30% of total soil carbon. Lowland peat soils can also be very productive for agriculture, but their cultivation requires drainage as most crops are intolerant of root-zone anoxia. This leads to the creation of oxic conditions in which organic matter becomes vulnerable to mineralisation. Given the demand for high quality agricultural land, 40% of the UK's peatlands have been drained for agricultural use. In this study we present the outcomes of a controlled environment experiment conducted on agricultural fen peat to examine possible trade-offs between celery growth (an economically important crop on the agricultural peatlands of eastern England) and emissions of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4)) at different temperatures (ambient and ambient +5 °C), water table levels (-30 cm, and -50 cm below the surface), and fertiliser use. Raising the water table from -50 cm to -30 cm depressed yields of celery, and at the same time decreased the entire ecosystem CO2 loss by 31%. A 5 °C temperature increase enhanced ecosystem emissions of CO2 by 25% and increased celery dry shoot weight by 23% while not affecting the shoot fresh weight. Fertiliser addition increased both celery yields and soil respiration by 22%. Methane emissions were generally very low and not significantly different from zero. Our results suggest that increasing the water table can lower emissions of greenhouse gases and reduce the rate of peat wastage, but reduces the productivity of celery. If possible, the water table should be raised to -30 cm before and after cultivation, and only decreased during the growing season, as this would reduce the overall greenhouse gas emissions and peat loss, potentially not affecting the production of vegetable crops.

Characterizing permafrost active layer dynamics and sensitivity to landscape spatial heterogeneity in Alaska.

An important feature of the Arctic is large spatial heterogeneity in active layer conditions, which is generally poorly represented by global models and can lead to large uncertainties in predicting regional ecosystem responses and climate feedbacks. In this study, we developed a spatially integrated modelling and analysis framework combining field observations, local scale (~ 50 m resolution) active layer thickness (ALT) and soil moisture maps derived from airborne low frequency (L+P-band) radar measurements, and global satellite environmental observations to investigate the ALT sensitivity to recent climate trends and landscape heterogeneity in Alaska. Modelled ALT results show good correspondence with in situ measurements in higher permafrost probability (PP ≥ 70%) areas (n = 33, R = 0.60, mean bias = 1.58 cm, RMSE = 20.32 cm), but with larger uncertainty in sporadic and discontinuous permafrost areas. The model results also reveal widespread ALT deepening since 2001, with smaller ALT increases in northern Alaska (mean trend = 0.32 ± 1.18 cm yr-1) and much larger increases (> 3 cm yr-1) across interior and southern Alaska. The positive ALT trend coincides with regional warming and a longer snow-free season (R = 0.60 ± 0.32). A spatially integrated analysis of the radar retrievals and model sensitivity simulations demonstrated that uncertainty in the spatial and vertical distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) was the largest factor affecting modeled ALT accuracy, while soil moisture played a secondary role. Potential improvements in characterizing SOC heterogeneity, including better spatial sampling of soil conditions and advances in remote sensing of SOC and soil moisture, will enable more accurate predictions of active layer conditions and refinement of the modelling framework across a larger domain.