Predicting the Predicted: A Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Collision Cross-Section Prediction Models for Small Molecules.

The application of machine learning (ML) to -omics research is growing at an exponential rate owing to the increasing availability of large amounts of data for model training. Specifically, in metabolomics, ML has enabled the prediction of tandem mass spectrometry and retention time data. More recently, due to the advent of ion mobility, new ML models have been introduced for collision cross-section (CCS) prediction, but those have been trained with different and relatively small data sets covering a few thousands of small molecules, which hampers their systematic comparison. Here, we compared four existing ML-based CCS prediction models and their capacity to predict CCS values using the recently introduced METLIN-CCS data set. We also compared them with simple linear models and with ML models that used fingerprints as regressors. We analyzed the role of structural diversity of the data on which the ML models are trained with and explored the practical application of these models for metabolite annotation using CCS values. Results showed a limited capability of the existing models to achieve the necessary accuracy to be adopted for routine metabolomics analysis. We showed that for a particular molecule, this accuracy could only be improved when models were trained with a large number of structurally similar counterparts. Therefore, we suggest that current annotation capabilities will only be significantly altered with models trained with heterogeneous data sets composed of large homogeneous hubs of structurally similar molecules to those being predicted.

Machine Learning-Based Retention Time Prediction of Trimethylsilyl Derivatives of Metabolites.

In gas chromatography-mass spectrometry-based untargeted metabolomics, metabolites are identified by comparing mass spectra and chromatographic retention time with reference databases or standard materials. In that sense, machine learning has been used to predict the retention time of metabolites lacking reference data. However, the retention time prediction of trimethylsilyl derivatives of metabolites, typically analyzed in untargeted metabolomics using gas chromatography, has been poorly explored. Here, we provide a rationalized framework for machine learning-based retention time prediction of trimethylsilyl derivatives of metabolites in gas chromatography. We compared different machine learning paradigms, in addition to exploring the influence of the computational molecular structure representation to train the prediction models: fingerprint class and fingerprint calculation software. Our study challenged predicted retention time when using chemical ionization and electron impact ionization sources in simulated and real cases, demonstrating a good correct identity ranking capability by machine learning, despite observing a limited false identity filtering power in cases where a spectrum or a monoisotopic mass match to multiple candidates. Specifically, machine learning prediction yielded median absolute and relative retention index (relative retention time) errors of 37.1 retention index units and 2%, respectively. In addition, fingerprint class and fingerprint calculation software, as well as the molecular structural similarity between the training and test or real case sets, showed to be critical modulators of the prediction performance. Finally, we leveraged the structural similarity between the training and test or real case set to determine the probability that the prediction error is below a specific threshold. Overall, our study demonstrates that predicted retention time can provide insights into the true structure of unknown metabolites by ranking from the most to the least plausible molecular identity, and sets the guidelines to assess the confidence in metabolite identification using predicted retention time data.