Diagnostic accuracy of cross-sectional and endoscopic imaging in ampullary tumours: systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Differentiation between adenomas and carcinomas of the ampulla of Vater is crucial for therapy and prognosis. This was a systematic review of the literature on the accuracy of diagnostic modalities used to differentiate between benign and malignant ampullary tumours. METHODS: A literature search was conducted in PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Library. Studies were included if they reported diagnostic test accuracy information among benign and malignant ampullary tumours, and used pathological diagnosis as the reference standard. Risk of bias was assessed using Quality Assessment on Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) 2 and QUADAS-C. RESULTS: Ten studies comprising 397 patients were included. Frequently studied modalities were (CT; 2 studies), endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS; 3 studies), intraductal ultrasonography (IDUS; 2 studies), and endoscopic forceps biopsy (3 studies). For CT, the reported sensitivity for detecting ampullary carcinoma was 44 and 95%, and the specificity 58 and 60%. For EUS, the sensitivity ranged from 63 to 89% and the specificity between 50 and 100%. A sensitivity of 88 and 100% was reported for IDUS, with a specificity of 75 and 93%. For forceps biopsy, the sensitivity ranged from 20 to 91%, and the specificity from 75 to 86%. The overall risk of bias was scored as moderate to poor. Data were insufficient for meta-analysis. CONCLUSION: To differentiate benign from malignant ampullary tumours, EUS and IDUS seem to be the best diagnostic modalities. Sufficient high-quality evidence, however, is lacking.

Real-world evidence of adjuvant gemcitabine plus capecitabine vs gemcitabine monotherapy for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

The added value of capecitabine to adjuvant gemcitabine monotherapy (GEM) in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) was shown by the ESPAC-4 trial. Real-world data on the effectiveness of gemcitabine plus capecitabine (GEMCAP), in patients ineligible for mFOLFIRINOX, are lacking. Our study assessed whether adjuvant GEMCAP is superior to GEM in a nationwide cohort. Patients treated with adjuvant GEMCAP or GEM after resection of PDAC without preoperative treatment were identified from The Netherlands Cancer Registry (2015-2019). The primary outcome was overall survival (OS), measured from start of chemotherapy. The treatment effect of GEMCAP vs GEM was adjusted for sex, age, performance status, tumor size, lymph node involvement, resection margin and tumor differentiation in a multivariable Cox regression analysis. Secondary outcome was the percentage of patients who completed the planned six adjuvant treatment cycles. Overall, 778 patients were included, of whom 21.1% received GEMCAP and 78.9% received GEM. The median OS was 31.4 months (95% CI 26.8-40.7) for GEMCAP and 22.1 months (95% CI 20.6-25.0) for GEM (HR: 0.71, 95% CI 0.56-0.90; logrank P = .004). After adjustment for prognostic factors, survival remained superior for patients treated with GEMCAP (HR: 0.73, 95% CI 0.57-0.92, logrank P = .009). Survival with GEMCAP was superior to GEM in most subgroups of prognostic factors. Adjuvant chemotherapy was completed in 69.5% of the patients treated with GEMCAP and 62.7% with GEM (P = .11). In this nationwide cohort of patients with PDAC, adjuvant GEMCAP was associated with superior survival as compared to GEM monotherapy and number of cycles was similar.

High procalcitonin levels associated with increased intensive care unit admission and mortality in patients with a COVID-19 infection in the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Patients with a severe COVID-19 infection often require admission at an intensive care unit (ICU) when they develop acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Hyperinflammation plays an important role in the development of ARDS in COVID-19. Procalcitonin (PCT) is a biomarker which may be a predictor of hyperinflammation. When patients with COVID-19 are in the emergency department (ED), elevated PCT levels could be associated with severe COVID-19 infections. The goal of this study is to investigate the association between PCT levels and severe COVID-19 infections in the ED. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study including patients with a confirmed COVID-19 infection who visited the ED of Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, between March and December 2020. The primary outcome was a severe COVID-19 infection, which was defined as patients who required ICU admission, all cause in-hospital mortality and mortality within 30 days after hospital discharge. PCT levels were measured during the ED visit. We used logistic regression to calculate the odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) and corresponding area under the curve (AUC) of PCT on a severe COVID-19 infection, adjusting for bacterial coinfections, age, sex, comorbidities, C-reactive protein (CRP) and D-dimer. RESULTS: A total of 332 patients were included in the final analysis of this study, of which 105 patients reached the composite outcome of a severe COVID-19 infection. PCT showed an unadjusted OR of 4.19 (95%CI: 2.52-7.69) on a severe COVID-19 infection with an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.76-0.87). Corrected for bacterial coinfection, the OR of PCT was 4.05 (95% CI: 2.45-7.41). Adjusted for sex, bacterial coinfection, age any comorbidity, CRP and D-dimer, elevated PCT levels were still significantly associated with a severe COVID-19 infection with an adjusted OR of 2.11 (95% CI: 1.36-3.61). The AUC of this multivariable model was 0.85 (95%CI: 0.81-0.90). CONCLUSION: High PCT levels are associated with high rates of severe COVID-19 infections in patients with a COVID-19 infection in the ED. The routine measurement of PCT in patients with a COVID-19 infection in the ED may assist physicians in the clinical decision making process regarding ICU disposition.

Treatment and overall survival of four types of non-metastatic periampullary cancer: nationwide population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Periampullary adenocarcinoma consists of pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC), distal cholangiocarcinoma (DC), ampullary cancer (AC), and duodenal adenocarcinoma (DA). The aim of this study was to assess treatment modalities and overall survival by tumor origin. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with non-metastatic periampullary cancer in 2012-2018 were identified from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. OS was studied with Kaplan-Meier analysis and multivariable Cox regression analyses, stratified by origin. RESULTS: Among the 8758 patients included, 68% had PDAC, 13% DC, 12% AC, and 7% DA. Resection was performed in 35% of PDAC, 56% of DC, 70% of AC, and 59% of DA. Neoadjuvant and/or adjuvant therapy was administered in 22% of PDAC, 7% of DC, 7% of AC, and 12% of DA. Three-year OS was highest for AC (37%) and DA (34%), followed by DC (21%) and PDAC (11%). Adjuvant therapy was associated with improved OS among PDAC (HR = 0.62; 95% CI 0.55-0.69) and DC (HR = 0.69; 95% CI 0.48-0.98), but not AC (HR = 0.87; 95% CI 0.62-1.22) and DA (HR = 0.85; 95% CI 0.48-1.50). CONCLUSION: This retrospective study identified considerable differences in treatment modalities and OS between the four periampullary cancer origins in daily clinical practice. An improved OS after adjuvant chemotherapy could not be demonstrated in patients with AC and DA.

Duration of antibiotic treatment using procalcitonin-guided treatment algorithms in older patients: a patient-level meta-analysis from randomized controlled trials.

BACKGROUND: Older patients have a less pronounced immune response to infection, which may also influence infection biomarkers. There is currently insufficient data regarding clinical effects of procalcitonin (PCT) to guide antibiotic treatment in older patients. OBJECTIVE AND DESIGN: We performed an individual patient data meta-analysis to investigate the association of age on effects of PCT-guided antibiotic stewardship regarding antibiotic use and outcome. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: We had access to 9,421 individual infection patients from 28 randomized controlled trials comparing PCT-guided antibiotic therapy (intervention group) or standard care. We stratified patients according to age in four groups (<75 years [n = 7,079], 75-80 years [n = 1,034], 81-85 years [n = 803] and >85 years [n = 505]). The primary endpoint was the duration of antibiotic treatment and the secondary endpoints were 30-day mortality and length of stay. RESULTS: Compared to control patients, mean duration of antibiotic therapy in PCT-guided patients was significantly reduced by 24, 22, 26 and 24% in the four age groups corresponding to adjusted differences in antibiotic days of -1.99 (95% confidence interval [CI] -2.36 to -1.62), -1.98 (95% CI -2.94 to -1.02), -2.20 (95% CI -3.15 to -1.25) and - 2.10 (95% CI -3.29 to -0.91) with no differences among age groups. There was no increase in the risk for mortality in any of the age groups. Effects were similar in subgroups by infection type, blood culture result and clinical setting (P interaction >0.05). CONCLUSIONS: This large individual patient data meta-analysis confirms that, similar to younger patients, PCT-guided antibiotic treatment in older patients is associated with significantly reduced antibiotic exposures and no increase in mortality.

Relationship Between Quality of Life and Survival in Patients With Pancreatic and Periampullary Cancer: A Multicenter Cohort Analysis.

BACKGROUND: A relationship between quality of life (QoL) and survival has been shown for several types of cancer, mostly in clinical trials with highly selected patient groups. The relationship between QoL and survival for patients with pancreatic or periampullary cancer is unclear. METHODS: This study analyzed QoL data from a prospective multicenter patient-reported outcome registry in patients with pancreatic or periampullary carcinoma registered in the nationwide Netherlands Cancer Registry (2015-2018). Baseline and delta QoL, between baseline and 3-month follow-up, were assessed with the Happiness, EORTC Quality of Life Questionnaire-Core 30 (QLQ-C30), and QLQ-PAN26 questionnaires. The relationship between QoL and survival was assessed using Cox regression models, and additional prognostic value of separate items was assessed using Nagelkerke R2 (explained variance). RESULTS: For the baseline and delta analyses, 233 and 148 patients were available, respectively. Most were diagnosed with pancreatic adenocarcinoma (n=194; 83.3%) and had stage III disease (n=77; 33.0%), with a median overall survival of 13.6 months. Multivariate analysis using baseline scores indicated several scales to be of prognostic value for the total cohort (ie, happiness today, role functioning, diarrhea, pancreatic pain, and body image; hazard ratios all P<.05) and for patients without resection (ie, overall satisfaction with life, physical and cognitive functioning, QLQ-C30 summary score, fatigue, pain, constipation, diarrhea, and body image; hazard ratios all P<.05). Except for diarrhea, all QoL items accounted for >5% of the additional explained variance and were of added prognostic value. Multivariate analysis using delta QoL revealed that only constipation was of prognostic value for the total cohort, whereas no association with survival was found for subgroups with or without resection. CONCLUSIONS: In a multicenter cohort of patients with pancreatic or periampullary carcinoma, QoL scores predicted survival regardless of patient, tumor, and treatment characteristics. QoL scores may thus be used for shared decision-making regarding disease management and treatment choice.

Association of kidney function with effectiveness of procalcitonin-guided antibiotic treatment: a patient-level meta-analysis from randomized controlled trials.

Objectives: Patients with impaired kidney function have a significantly slower decrease of procalcitonin (PCT) levels during infection. Our aim was to study PCT-guided antibiotic stewardship and clinical outcomes in patients with impairments of kidney function as assessed by creatinine levels measured upon hospital admission. Methods: We pooled and analyzed individual data from 15 randomized controlled trials who were randomly assigned to receive antibiotic therapy based on a PCT-algorithms or based on standard of care. We stratified patients on the initial glomerular filtration rate (GFR, ml/min/1.73 m2) in three groups (GFR >90 [chronic kidney disease; CKD 1], GFR 15-89 [CKD 2-4] and GFR<15 [CKD 5]). The main efficacy and safety endpoints were duration of antibiotic treatment and 30-day mortality. Results: Mean duration of antibiotic treatment was significantly shorter in PCT-guided (n=2,492) compared to control patients (n=2,510) (9.5-7.6 days; adjusted difference in days -2.01 [95% CI, -2.45 to -1.58]). CKD 5 patients had overall longer treatment durations, but a 2.5-day reduction in treatment duration was still found in patients receiving in PCT-guided care (11.3 vs. 8.6 days [95% CI -3.59 to -1.40]). There were 397 deaths in 2,492 PCT-group patients (15.9%) compared to 460 deaths in 2,510 control patients (18.3%) (adjusted odds ratio, 0.88 [95% CI 0.78 to 0.98)]. Effects of PCT-guidance on antibiotic treatment duration and mortality were similar in subgroups stratified by infection type and clinical setting (p interaction >0.05). Conclusions: This individual patient data meta-analysis confirms that the use of PCT in patients with impaired kidney function, as assessed by admission creatinine levels, is associated with shorter antibiotic courses and lower mortality rates.

Cost-effectiveness of procalcitonin testing to guide antibiotic treatment duration in critically ill patients: results from a randomised controlled multicentre trial in the Netherlands.

BACKGROUND: Procalcitonin (PCT) testing can help in safely reducing antibiotic treatment duration in intensive care patients with sepsis. However, the cost-effectiveness of such PCT guidance is not yet known. METHODS: A trial-based analysis was performed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of PCT guidance compared with standard of care (without PCT guidance). Patient-level data were used from the SAPS trial in which 1546 patients were randomised. This trial was performed in the Netherlands, which is a country with, on average, low antibiotic use and a short duration of hospital stay. As quality of life among sepsis survivors was not measured during the SAPS, this was derived from a Dutch follow-up study. Outcome measures were (1) incremental direct hospital cost and (2) incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from a healthcare perspective over a one-year time horizon. Uncertainty in outcomes was assessed with bootstrapping. RESULTS: Mean in-hospital costs were €46,081/patient in the PCT group compared with €46,146/patient with standard of care (i.e. - €65 (95% CI - €6314 to €6107); - 0.1%). The duration of the first course of antibiotic treatment was lower in the PCT group with 6.9 vs. 8.2 days (i.e. - 1.2 days (95% CI - 1.9 to - 0.4), - 14.8%). This was accompanied by lower in-hospital mortality of 21.8% vs. 29.8% (absolute decrease 7.9% (95% CI - 13.9% to - 1.8%), relative decrease 26.6%), resulting in an increase in mean QALYs/patient from 0.47 to 0.52 (i.e. + 0.05 (95% CI 0.00 to 0.10); + 10.1%). However, owing to high costs among sepsis survivors, healthcare costs over a one-year time horizon were €73,665/patient in the PCT group compared with €70,961/patient with standard of care (i.e. + €2704 (95% CI - €4495 to €10,005), + 3.8%), resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €57,402/QALY gained. Within this time frame, the probability of PCT guidance being cost-effective was 64% at a willingness-to-pay threshold of €80,000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Although the impact of PCT guidance on total healthcare-related costs during the initial hospitalisation episode is likely negligible, the lower in-hospital mortality may lead to a non-significant increase in costs over a one-year time horizon. However, since uncertainty remains, it is recommended to investigate the long-term cost-effectiveness of PCT guidance, from a societal perspective, in different countries and settings.

Effect of procalcitonin-guided antibiotic treatment on clinical outcomes in intensive care unit patients with infection and sepsis patients: a patient-level meta-analysis of randomized trials.

BACKGROUND: The clinical utility of serum procalcitonin levels in guiding antibiotic treatment decisions in patients with sepsis remains unclear. This patient-level meta-analysis based on 11 randomized trials investigates the impact of procalcitonin-guided antibiotic therapy on mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with infection, both overall and stratified according to sepsis definition, severity, and type of infection. METHODS: For this meta-analysis focusing on procalcitonin-guided antibiotic management in critically ill patients with sepsis of any type, in February 2018 we updated the database of a previous individual patient data meta-analysis which was limited to patients with respiratory infections only. We used individual patient data from 11 trials that randomly assigned patients to receive antibiotics based on procalcitonin levels (the "procalcitonin-guided" group) or the current standard of care (the "controls"). The primary endpoint was mortality within 30 days. Secondary endpoints were duration of antibiotic treatment and length of stay. RESULTS: Mortality in the 2252 procalcitonin-guided patients was significantly lower compared with the 2230 control group patients (21.1% vs 23.7%; adjusted odds ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.8 to 0.99; p = 0.03). These effects on mortality persisted in a subgroup of patients meeting the sepsis 3 definition and based on the severity of sepsis (assessed on the basis of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, occurrence of septic shock or renal failure, and need for vasopressor or ventilatory support) and on the type of infection (respiratory, urinary tract, abdominal, skin, or central nervous system), with interaction for each analysis being > 0.05. Procalcitonin guidance also facilitated earlier discontinuation of antibiotics, with a reduction in treatment duration (9.3 vs 10.4 days; adjusted coefficient -1.19 days, 95% CI -1.73 to -0.66; p <  0.001). CONCLUSION: Procalcitonin-guided antibiotic treatment in ICU patients with infection and sepsis patients results in improved survival and lower antibiotic treatment duration.

Procalcitonin to initiate or discontinue antibiotics in acute respiratory tract infections.

BACKGROUND: Acute respiratory infections (ARIs) comprise of a large and heterogeneous group of infections including bacterial, viral, and other aetiologies. In recent years, procalcitonin (PCT), a blood marker for bacterial infections, has emerged as a promising tool to improve decisions about antibiotic therapy (PCT-guided antibiotic therapy). Several randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have demonstrated the feasibility of using procalcitonin for starting and stopping antibiotics in different patient populations with ARIs and different settings ranging from primary care settings to emergency departments, hospital wards, and intensive care units. However, the effect of using procalcitonin on clinical outcomes is unclear. This is an update of a Cochrane review and individual participant data meta-analysis first published in 2012 designed to look at the safety of PCT-guided antibiotic stewardship. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this systematic review based on individual participant data was to assess the safety and efficacy of using procalcitonin for starting or stopping antibiotics over a large range of patients with varying severity of ARIs and from different clinical settings. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), which contains the Cochrane Acute Respiratory Infections Group's Specialised Register, MEDLINE, and Embase, in February 2017, to identify suitable trials. We also searched ClinicalTrials.gov to identify ongoing trials in April 2017. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included RCTs of adult participants with ARIs who received an antibiotic treatment either based on a procalcitonin algorithm (PCT-guided antibiotic stewardship algorithm) or usual care. We excluded trials if they focused exclusively on children or used procalcitonin for a purpose other than to guide initiation and duration of antibiotic treatment. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two teams of review authors independently evaluated the methodology and extracted data from primary studies. The primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and treatment failure at 30 days, for which definitions were harmonised among trials. Secondary endpoints were antibiotic use, antibiotic-related side effects, and length of hospital stay. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using multivariable hierarchical logistic regression adjusted for age, gender, and clinical diagnosis using a fixed-effect model. The different trials were added as random-effects into the model. We conducted sensitivity analyses stratified by clinical setting and type of ARI. We also performed an aggregate data meta-analysis. MAIN RESULTS: From 32 eligible RCTs including 18 new trials for this 2017 update, we obtained individual participant data from 26 trials including 6708 participants, which we included in the main individual participant data meta-analysis. We did not obtain individual participant data for four trials, and two trials did not include people with confirmed ARIs. According to GRADE, the quality of the evidence was high for the outcomes mortality and antibiotic exposure, and quality was moderate for the outcomes treatment failure and antibiotic-related side effects.Primary endpoints: there were 286 deaths in 3336 procalcitonin-guided participants (8.6%) compared to 336 in 3372 controls (10.0%), resulting in a significantly lower mortality associated with procalcitonin-guided therapy (adjusted OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.99, P = 0.037). We could not estimate mortality in primary care trials because only one death was reported in a control group participant. Treatment failure was not significantly lower in procalcitonin-guided participants (23.0% versus 24.9% in the control group, adjusted OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.01, P = 0.068). Results were similar among subgroups by clinical setting and type of respiratory infection, with no evidence for effect modification (P for interaction > 0.05). Secondary endpoints: procalcitonin guidance was associated with a 2.4-day reduction in antibiotic exposure (5.7 versus 8.1 days, 95% CI -2.71 to -2.15, P < 0.001) and lower risk of antibiotic-related side effects (16.3% versus 22.1%, adjusted OR 0.68, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.82, P < 0.001). Length of hospital stay and intensive care unit stay were similar in both groups. A sensitivity aggregate-data analysis based on all 32 eligible trials showed similar results. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: This updated meta-analysis of individual participant data from 12 countries shows that the use of procalcitonin to guide initiation and duration of antibiotic treatment results in lower risks of mortality, lower antibiotic consumption, and lower risk for antibiotic-related side effects. Results were similar for different clinical settings and types of ARIs, thus supporting the use of procalcitonin in the context of antibiotic stewardship in people with ARIs. Future high-quality research is needed to confirm the results in immunosuppressed patients and patients with non-respiratory infections.

Exploring the Impact of Model-Informed Precision Dosing on Procalcitonin Concentrations in Critically Ill Patients: A Secondary Analysis of the DOLPHIN Trial.

Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) might be used to optimize antibiotic treatment. Procalcitonin (PCT) is a biomarker for severity of infection and response to antibiotic treatment. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of MIPD on the course of PCT and to investigate the association of PCT with pharmacodynamic target (PDT) attainment in critically ill patients. This is a secondary analysis of the DOLPHIN trial, a multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial. Patients with a PCT value available at day 1 (T1), day 3 (T3), or day 5 (T5) after randomisation were included. The primary outcome was the absolute difference in PCT concentration at T1, T3, and T5 between the MIPD and the standard dosing group. In total, 662 PCT concentrations from 351 critically ill patients were analysed. There was no statistically significant difference in PCT concentration between the trial arms at T1, T3, or T5. The median PCT concentration was highest in patients who exceeded 10× PDT at T1 [13.15 ng/mL (IQR 5.43-22.75)]. In 28-day non-survivors and in patients that exceeded PDT at T1, PCT decreased significantly between T1 and T3, but plateaued between T3 and T5. PCT concentrations were not significantly different between patients receiving antibiotic treatment with or without MIPD guidance. The potential of PCT to guide antibiotic dosing merits further investigation.

Efficacy of Alkaline Phosphatase in Critically Ill Patients with COVID-19: A Multicentre Investigator-Initiated Double-Blind Randomised Placebo-Controlled Trial.

BACKGROUND: Efforts to identify therapies to treat hospitalised patients with COVID-19 are being continued. Alkaline phosphatase (AP) dephosphorylates pro-inflammatory adenosine triphosphate (ATP) into anti-inflammatory adenosine. METHODS: In a randomised controlled trial, we investigated the safety and efficacy of AP in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted to the ICU. AP or a placebo was administered for four days following admission to the ICU. The primary outcome was the duration of mechanical ventilation. Mortality in 28 days, acute kidney injury, need for reintubation, safety, and inflammatory markers relevant to the described high cytokine release associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection were the secondary outcomes. RESULTS: Between December 2020 and March 2022, 97 patients (of the intended 132) were included, of which 51 were randomised to AP. The trial was terminated prematurely based on meeting the threshold for futility. Compared to the placebo, AP did not affect the duration of mechanical ventilation (9.0 days vs. 9.3 days, p = 1.0). No safety issues were observed. After 28 days, mortality was 9 (18%) in the AP group versus 6 (13%) in the placebo group (p = 0.531). Additionally, no statistically significant differences between the AP and the placebo were observed for the other secondary outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Alkaline phosphatase (AP) therapy in COVID-19 ICU patients showed no significant benefits in this trial.

An in silico modeling approach to understanding the dynamics of the post-burn immune response.

Introduction: Burns are characterized by a massive and prolonged acute inflammation, which persists for up to months after the initial trauma. Due to the complexity of the inflammatory process, Predicting the dynamics of wound healing process can be challenging for burn injuries. The aim of this study was to develop simulation models for the post-burn immune response based on (pre)clinical data. Methods: The simulation domain was separated into blood and tissue compartments. Each of these compartments contained solutes and cell agents. Solutes comprise pro-inflammatory cytokines, anti-inflammatory cytokines and inflammation triggering factors. The solutes diffuse around the domain based on their concentration profiles. The cells include mast cells, neutrophils, and macrophages, and were modeled as independent agents. The cells are motile and exhibit chemotaxis based on concentrations gradients of the solutes. In addition, the cells secrete various solutes that in turn alter the dynamics and responses of the burn wound system. Results: We developed an Glazier-Graner-Hogeweg method-based model (GGH) to capture the complexities associated with the dynamics of inflammation after burn injuries, including changes in cell counts and cytokine levels. Through simulations from day 0 - 4 post-burn, we successfully identified key factors influencing the acute inflammatory response, i.e., the initial number of endothelial cells, the chemotaxis threshold, and the level of chemoattractants. Conclusion: Our findings highlight the pivotal role of the initial endothelial cell count as a key parameter for intensity of inflammation and progression of acute inflammation, 0 - 4 days post-burn.

Stop Antibiotics on guidance of Procalcitonin Study (SAPS): a randomised prospective multicenter investigator-initiated trial to analyse whether daily measurements of procalcitonin versus a standard-of-care approach can safely shorten antibiotic duration in intensive care unit patients--calculated sample size: 1816 patients.

BACKGROUND: Unnecessary long-term use of broad-spectrum antibiotics is linked to the emergence and selection of resistant bacteria, prolonged hospitalisation and increased costs. Several clinical trials indicate that the biomarker procalcitonin (PCT) can guide antibiotic therapy. Some of these trials have shown a promising reduction in the number of antibiotic prescriptions, duration of antibiotic therapy and even length of stay in the ICU, although their size and selection criteria limit their external validity. The objectives of the Stop Antibiotics on guidance of Procalcitonin Study (SAPS) are to evaluate whether daily PCT can improve "real-life" antibiotic use in Dutch ICU's by reduction of the duration of antibiotic treatment without an increase of recurrent infections and mortality. METHODS/DESIGN: Multicenter randomised controlled intervention trial. Powered for superiority of the primary efficacy endpoint and non-inferiority on the primary safety endpoints (non-inferiority margin is set on 8%). INCLUSION CRITERIA: (1) ICU-patients aged ≥18 years and (2) receiving antibiotics for a presumed or proven infection and (3) signed informed consent. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: (1) patients who require prolonged antibiotic therapy, (2) suffer from Mycobacterium tuberculosis, (3) cystic fibrosis, (4) viral or parasitic infections and (5) those that are severely immunocompromised or (6) moribund.The intervention consists solely of an advice to discontinue antibiotic treatment in case PCT has decreased by more than 80% of its peak level (relative stopping threshold) or decrease below a value of 0.5 ng/ml (absolute stopping threshold).The study hypothesis is that PCT-guided therapy is non-inferior to standard care based on implemented guidelines and local expertise, whilst reducing antibiotic usage. Computerised 1:1 randomisation will allocate 908 patients per arm. Arm 1: standard of care. Arm 2: procalcitonin-guided therapy. The primary efficacy endpoint is consumption of antibiotics expressed as the defined daily dosage and duration of antibiotic therapy expressed in days of therapy. This trial is designed to shorten antibiotics safely, therefore the primary safety endpoint is mortality measured at 28 day and 1 year. DISCUSSION: This will be the largest procalcitonin-guided antibiotic intervention trial in ICU setting thus far. Currently 1600 of the planned 1816 patients are randomised (November 2012). The first interim analysis has passed without any safety or futility issues. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Trial registration number at www.clinicaltrials.gov: Id. Nr. NCT01139489, at www.trialregister.nl: Id.nr. NTR1861.

The Complexity of the Post-Burn Immune Response: An Overview of the Associated Local and Systemic Complications.

Burn injury induces a complex inflammatory response, both locally and systemically, and is not yet completely unravelled and understood. In order to enable the development of accurate treatment options, it is of paramount importance to fully understand post-burn immunology. Research in the last decades describes insights into the prolonged and excessive inflammatory response that could exist after both severe and milder burn trauma and that this response differs from that of none-burn acute trauma. Persistent activity of complement, acute phase proteins and pro- and anti-inflammatory mediators, changes in lymphocyte activity, activation of the stress response and infiltration of immune cells have all been related to post-burn local and systemic pathology. This "narrative" review explores the current state of knowledge, focusing on both the local and systemic immunology post-burn, and further questions how it is linked to the clinical outcome. Moreover, it illustrates the complexity of post-burn immunology and the existing gaps in knowledge on underlying mechanisms of burn pathology.

Impact of reduced antibiotic treatment duration on antimicrobial resistance in critically ill patients in the randomized controlled SAPS-trial.

Background: In the previously reported SAPS trial (https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01139489), procalcitonin-guidance safely reduced the duration of antibiotic treatment in critically ill patients. We assessed the impact of shorter antibiotic treatment on antimicrobial resistance development in SAPS patients. Materials and methods: Cultures were assessed for the presence of multi-drug resistant (MDR) or highly resistant organisms (HRMO) and compared between PCT-guided and control patients. Baseline isolates from 30 days before to 5 days after randomization were compared with those from 5 to 30 days post-randomization. The primary endpoint was the incidence of new MDR/HRMO positive patients. Results: In total, 8,113 cultures with 96,515 antibiotic test results were evaluated for 439 and 482 patients randomized to the PCT and control groups, respectively. Disease severity at admission was similar for both groups. Median (IQR) durations of the first course of antibiotics were 6 days (4-10) and 7 days (5-11), respectively (p = 0.0001). Antibiotic-free days were 7 days (IQR 0-14) and 6 days (0-13; p = 0.05). Of all isolates assessed, 13% were MDR/HRMO positive and at baseline 186 (20%) patients were MDR/HMRO-positive. The incidence of new MDR/HRMO was 39 (8.9%) and 45 (9.3%) in PCT and control patients, respectively (p = 0.82). The time courses for MDR/HRMO development were also similar for both groups (p = 0.33). Conclusions: In the 921 randomized patients studied, the small but statistically significant reduction in antibiotic treatment in the PCT-group did not translate into a detectable change in antimicrobial resistance. Studies with larger differences in antibiotic treatment duration, larger study populations or populations with higher MDR/HRMO incidences might detect such differences.

Initial Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Viral Load Is Associated With Disease Severity: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background: We assessed the association between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral load and hospital admission, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and in-hospital mortality. Methods: All SARS-CoV-2-positive persons with a combined nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal swab that was collected between 17 March 2020 and 31 March 2021 in public health testing facilities were included. Results: From 20 207 SARS-CoV-2-positive persons, 310 (1.5%) were hospitalized within 30 days. High viral loads (crossing point [Cp] <25) were associated with an increased risk of hospitalization as compared to low viral loads (Cp >30), adjusted for age and sex (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.57 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.11-2.26]). The same association was seen for ICU admission (aOR, 7.06 [95% CI, 2.15-43.57]). The median [interquartile range] Cp value of the 17 patients who died in hospital was significantly lower compared to the 226 survivors (22.7 [3.4] vs 25.0 [5.2]). Conclusions: Higher initial SARS-CoV-2 viral load is associated with an increased risk of hospital admission, ICU admission, and in-hospital mortality. Our findings emphasize the added value of reporting SARS-CoV-2 viral load or cycle threshold/Cp values to identify persons who are at the highest risk of adverse outcomes such as hospital or ICU admission and who therefore may benefit from more intensive monitoring or early initiation of antiviral therapy.

The Future of Burn Care From a Complexity Science Perspective.

Health care is undergoing a profound technological and digital transformation and has become increasingly complex. It is important for burns professionals and researchers to adapt to these developments which may require new ways of thinking and subsequent new strategies. As Einstein has put it: "We must learn to see the world anew." The relatively new scientific discipline "Complexity science" can give more direction to this and is the metaphorical open door that should not go unnoticed in view of the burn care of the future. Complexity science studies "why the whole is more than the sum of the parts." It studies how multiple separate components interact with each other and their environment and how these interactions lead to "behavior of the system." Biological systems are always part of smaller and larger systems and exhibit the behavior of adaptivity, hence the name complex adaptive systems. From the perspective of complexity science, a severe burn injury is an extreme disruption of the "human body system." But this disruption also applies to the systems at the organ and cellular levels. All these systems follow the principles of complex systems. Awareness of the scaling process at multilevel helps to understand and manage the complex situation when dealing with severe burn cases. This paper aims to create awareness of the concept of complexity and to demonstrate the value and possibilities of complexity science methods and tools for the future of burn care through examples from preclinical, clinical, and organizational perspectives in burn care.

PD-1+ T-Cells Correlate with Nerve Fiber Density as a Prognostic Biomarker in Patients with Resected Perihilar Cholangiocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (pCCA) is a hepatobiliary malignancy, with a dismal prognosis. Nerve fiber density (NFD)-a novel prognostic biomarker-describes the density of small nerve fibers without cancer invasion and is categorized into high numbers and low numbers of small nerve fibers (high vs low NFD). NFD is different than perineural invasion (PNI), defined as nerve fiber trunks invaded by cancer cells. Here, we aim to explore differences in immune cell populations and survival between high and low NFD patients. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We applied multiplex immunofluorescence (mIF) on 47 pCCA patients and investigated immune cell composition in the tumor microenvironment (TME) of high and low NFD. Group comparison and oncological outcome analysis was performed. CD8+PD-1 expression was higher in the high NFD than in the low NFD group (12.24 × 10-6 vs. 1.38 × 10-6 positive cells by overall cell count, p = 0.017). High CD8+PD-1 expression was further identified as an independent predictor of overall (OS; Hazard ratio (HR) = 0.41; p = 0.031) and recurrence-free survival (RFS; HR = 0.40; p = 0.039). Correspondingly, the median OS was 83 months (95% confidence interval (CI): 18-48) in patients with high CD8+PD-1+ expression compared to 19 months (95% CI: 5-93) in patients with low CD8+PD-1+ expression (p = 0.018 log rank). Furthermore, RFS was significantly lower in patients with low CD8+PD-1+ expression (14 months (95% CI: 6-22)) compared to patients with high CD8+PD-1+ expression (83 months (95% CI: 17-149), p = 0.018 log rank). CONCLUSIONS: PD-1+ T-cells correlate with high NFD as a prognostic biomarker and predict good survival; the biological pathway needs to be investigated.