Precision medicine analysis of heterogeneity in individual-level treatment response to amyloid beta removal in early Alzheimer's disease.

INTRODUCTION: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurological disorder with variability in pathology and clinical progression. AD patients may differ in individual-level benefit from amyloid beta removal therapy. METHODS: Random forest models were applied to the EMERGE trial to create an individual-level treatment response (ITR) score which represents individual-level benefit of high-dose aducanumab relative to the placebo. This ITR score was used to test the existence of heterogeneity in treatment effect (HTE). RESULTS: We found statistical evidence of HTE in the Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes (CDR-SB;P =  0.034). The observed CDR-SB benefit was 0.79 points greater in the group with the top 25% of ITR score compared to the remaining 75% (P = 0.020). Of note, the highest treatment responders had lower hippocampal volume, higher plasma phosphorylated tau 181 and a shorter duration of clinical AD at baseline. DISCUSSION: This ITR analysis provides a proof of concept for precision medicine in future AD research and drug development. HIGHLIGHTS: Emerging trials have shown a population-level benefit from amyloid beta (Aß) removal in slowing cognitive decline in early Alzheimer's disease (AD). This work demonstrates significant heterogeneity of individual-level treatment effect of aducanumab in early AD. The greatest clinical responders to Aß removal therapy have a pattern of more severe neurodegenerative process.

Generating real-world evidence in Alzheimer's disease: Considerations for establishing a core dataset.

Ongoing assessment of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) in postapproval studies is important for mapping disease progression and evaluating real-world treatment effectiveness and safety. However, interpreting outcomes in the real world is challenging owing to variation in data collected across centers and specialties and greater heterogeneity of patients compared with trial participants. Here, we share considerations for observational postapproval studies designed to collect harmonized longitudinal data from individuals with mild cognitive impairment or mild dementia stage of disease who receive therapies targeting the underlying pathological processes of AD in routine practice. This paper considers key study design parameters, including proposed aims and objectives, study populations, approaches to data collection, and measures of cognition, functional abilities, neuropsychiatric status, quality of life, health economics, safety, and drug utilization. Postapproval studies that capture these considerations will be important to provide standardized data on AD treatment effectiveness and safety in real-world settings.

Serum neurofilament light levels in natalizumab-treated patients with multiple sclerosis who switch to extended interval dosing from every-4-week dosing in real-world clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: Serum levels of neurofilament light chain (sNfL) are a potentially useful biomarker for assessing the efficacy of multiple sclerosis (MS) treatments. OBJECTIVE: To compare levels of sNfL in patients with MS who switched from natalizumab every 4 weeks (Q4W) to extended interval dosing (EID) and patients who remained on Q4W dosing in real-world clinical practice. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of samples from patients treated with natalizumab from 2010 to 2015 at a single center in the United States. Levels of sNfL were compared in patients who stayed on Q4W dosing or who switched to EID (parallel-arm analyses) and during Q4W and EID periods in patients who switched to EID (pre- and post-switch analyses). RESULTS: The analysis included 139 patients (Q4W: n = 79; EID: n = 60). After adjustment, levels of sNfL did not significantly differ between patients who remained on Q4W dosing and those who switched to EID in parallel-arm analyses (adjusted Q4W-EID difference = 0.51 pg/mL; p = 0.60) or pre- and post-switch analyses (adjusted difference = 0.96 pg/mL; p = 0.10). CONCLUSION: These sNfL biomarker results suggest that the effectiveness of natalizumab is maintained in patients who switch from Q4W dosing to EID.

Glial fibrillary acidic protein and multiple sclerosis progression independent of acute inflammation.

BACKGROUND: The clinical relevance of serum glial fibrillary acidic protein (sGFAP) concentration as a biomarker of MS disability progression independent of acute inflammation has yet to be quantified. OBJECTIVE: To test whether baseline values and longitudinal changes in sGFAP concentration are associated with disability progression without detectable relapse of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) inflammatory activity in participants with secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS). METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed longitudinal sGFAP concentration and clinical outcome data from the Phase 3 ASCEND trial of participants with SPMS, with no detectable relapse or MRI signs of inflammatory activity at baseline nor during the study (n = 264). Serum neurofilament (sNfL), sGFAP, T2 lesion volume, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), Timed 25-Foot Walk (T25FW), 9-Hole Peg Test (9HPT), and composite confirmed disability progression (CDP) were measured. Linear and logistic regressions and generalized estimating equations were used in the prognostic and dynamic analyses. RESULTS: We found a significant cross-sectional association between baseline sGFAP and sNfL concentrations and T2 lesion volume. No or weak correlations between sGFAP concentration and changes in EDSS, T25FW, and 9HPT, or CDP were observed. CONCLUSION: Without inflammatory activity, changes in sGFAP concentration in participants with SPMS were neither associated with current nor predictive of future disability progression.

Effect of reduction in brain amyloid levels on change in cognitive and functional decline in randomized clinical trials: An instrumental variable meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Whether the reduction in brain amyloid beta (Aß) plaque alone may substantially slow cognitive and functional decline in patients with dementia or mild cognitive impairment due to Alzheimer's disease (AD) remains debated. METHODS: An instrumental variable meta-analysis was performed to infer the effect of change in positron emission tomography (PET)-measured Aß standardized uptake value ratio (SUVR) on cognitive and functional decline. RESULTS: Pooling data from 16 randomized trials demonstrates that each 0.1-unit decrease in PET Aß SUVR is associated with a reduction (95% confidence interval) by 0.09 (0.034-0.15), 0.33 (0.12-0.55), and 0.13 (0.017-0.24) point in the average change of the Clinical Dementia Rating-Sum of Boxes, the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognitive Subscale, and the Mini-Mental State Examination, respectively. DISCUSSION: This meta-analysis provides statistically significant evidence of a likely causal relationship between a reduction in Aß plaque and a reduction in cognitive and functional decline in patients with AD. HIGHLIGHTS: A widely cited meta-analysis article concluded amyloid beta reduction does not substantially improve cognition. We identified data inconsistencies in the initial publication and found new trial data. We repeated the meta-analysis after correcting data inconsistencies and adding new trial data. Updated results suggested statistically significant clinical benefit of amyloid beta reduction. Amyloid beta is a viable biological target for the treatment and prevention of AD.

The use and quality of reporting of propensity score methods in multiple sclerosis literature: A review.

BACKGROUND: Propensity score (PS) analyses are increasingly used in multiple sclerosis (MS) research, largely owing to the greater availability of large observational cohorts and registry databases. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the use and quality of reporting of PS methods in the recent MS literature. METHODS: We searched the PubMed database for articles published between January 2013 and July 2019. We restricted the search to comparative effectiveness studies of two disease-modifying therapies. RESULTS: Thirty-nine studies were included in the review, with most studies (62%) published within the past 3 years. All studies reported the list of covariates used for the PS model, but only 21% of studies mentioned how those covariates were selected. Most studies used PS matching (72%), followed by PS adjustment (18%), weighting (15%), and stratification (3%), with some overlap. Most studies using matching or weighting reported checking post-PS covariate imbalance (91%), although about 45% of these studies relied on p values from various statistical tests. Only 25% of studies using matching reported calculating robust standard errors for the PS analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The quality of reporting of PS methods in the MS literature is sub-optimal in general, and in some cases, inappropriate methods are used.

Recommendations for the use of propensity score methods in multiple sclerosis research.

BACKGROUND: With many disease-modifying therapies currently approved for the management of multiple sclerosis, there is a growing need to evaluate the comparative effectiveness and safety of those therapies from real-world data sources. Propensity score methods have recently gained popularity in multiple sclerosis research to generate real-world evidence. Recent evidence suggests, however, that the conduct and reporting of propensity score analyses are often suboptimal in multiple sclerosis studies. OBJECTIVES: To provide practical guidance to clinicians and researchers on the use of propensity score methods within the context of multiple sclerosis research. METHODS: We summarize recommendations on the use of propensity score matching and weighting based on the current methodological literature, and provide examples of good practice. RESULTS: Step-by-step recommendations are presented, starting with covariate selection and propensity score estimation, followed by guidance on the assessment of covariate balance and implementation of propensity score matching and weighting. Finally, we focus on treatment effect estimation and sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSION: This comprehensive set of recommendations highlights key elements that require careful attention when using propensity score methods.

Digital Devices for Assessing Motor Functions in Mobility-Impaired and Healthy Populations: Systematic Literature Review.

BACKGROUND: With the advent of smart sensing technology, mobile and wearable devices can provide continuous and objective monitoring and assessment of motor function outcomes. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to describe the existing scientific literature on wearable and mobile technologies that are being used or tested for assessing motor functions in mobility-impaired and healthy adults and to evaluate the degree to which these devices provide clinically valid measures of motor function in these populations. METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted by searching Embase, MEDLINE, CENTRAL (January 1, 2015, to June 24, 2020), the United States and European Union clinical trial registries, and the United States Food and Drug Administration website using predefined study selection criteria. Study selection, data extraction, and quality assessment were performed by 2 independent reviewers. RESULTS: A total of 91 publications representing 87 unique studies were included. The most represented clinical conditions were Parkinson disease (n=51 studies), followed by stroke (n=5), Huntington disease (n=5), and multiple sclerosis (n=2). A total of 42 motion-detecting devices were identified, and the majority (n=27, 64%) were created for the purpose of health care-related data collection, although approximately 25% were personal electronic devices (eg, smartphones and watches) and 11% were entertainment consoles (eg, Microsoft Kinect or Xbox and Nintendo Wii). The primary motion outcomes were related to gait (n=30), gross motor movements (n=25), and fine motor movements (n=23). As a group, sensor-derived motion data showed a mean sensitivity of 0.83 (SD 7.27), a mean specificity of 0.84 (SD 15.40), a mean accuracy of 0.90 (SD 5.87) in discriminating between diseased individuals and healthy controls, and a mean Pearson r validity coefficient of 0.52 (SD 0.22) relative to clinical measures. We did not find significant differences in the degree of validity between in-laboratory and at-home sensor-based assessments nor between device class (ie, health care-related device, personal electronic devices, and entertainment consoles). CONCLUSIONS: Sensor-derived motion data can be leveraged to classify and quantify disease status for a variety of neurological conditions. However, most of the recent research on digital clinical measures is derived from proof-of-concept studies with considerable variation in methodological approaches, and much of the reviewed literature has focused on clinical validation, with less than one-quarter of the studies performing analytical validation. Overall, future research is crucially needed to further consolidate that sensor-derived motion data may lead to the development of robust and transformative digital measurements intended to predict, diagnose, and quantify neurological disease state and its longitudinal change.

Temporal profile of serum neurofilament light in multiple sclerosis: Implications for patient monitoring.

OBJECTIVE: To understand how longitudinal serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) patterns can inform its use as a prognostic biomarker in multiple sclerosis (MS) and evaluate whether sNfL reflects MS disease activity and disease-modifying therapy usage. METHODS: This was a post hoc analysis of longitudinal data and samples from the ADVANCE trial (NCT00906399) of patients with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). sNfL was measured every 3 months for 2 years, then every 6 months for 4 years. Regression models explored how sNfL data predicted 4-year values of brain volume, expanded disability status scale score, and T2 lesions. sNfL levels were assessed in those receiving placebo, peginterferon beta-1a, and those with disease activity. RESULTS: Baseline sNfL was a predictor of 4-year brain atrophy and development of new T2 lesions. Clinical (p = 0.02) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) (p < 0.01) outcomes improved in those receiving peginterferon beta-1a whose sNfL decreased to <16 pg/mL after 12 months versus those whose sNfL remained ⩾16 pg/mL. Mean sNfL levels decreased in peginterferon beta-1a-treated patients and increased in placebo-treated patients (-9.5% vs. 6.8%; p < 0.01). sNfL was higher and more variable in patients with evidence of active MS. CONCLUSION: These data support sNfL as a prognostic and disease-monitoring biomarker for RRMS.

A proof-of-concept application of a novel scoring approach for personalized medicine in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Stratified medicine methodologies based on subgroup analyses are often insufficiently powered. More powerful personalized medicine approaches are based on continuous scores. OBJECTIVE: We deployed a patient-specific continuous score predicting treatment response in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). METHODS: Data from two independent randomized controlled trials (RCTs) were used to build and validate an individual treatment response (ITR) score, regressing annualized relapse rates (ARRs) on a set of baseline predictors. RESULTS: The ITR score for the combined treatment groups versus placebo detected differential clinical response in both RCTs. High responders in one RCT had a cross-validated ARR ratio of 0.29 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.13-0.55) versus 0.62 (95% CI = 0.47-0.83) for all other responders (heterogeneity p = 0.038) and were validated in the other RCT, with the corresponding ARR ratios of 0.31 (95% CI = 0.18-0.56) and 0.61 (95% CI = 0.47-0.79; heterogeneity p = 0.036). The strongest treatment effect modifiers were the Short Form-36 Physical Component Summary, age, Visual Function Test 2.5%, prior MS treatment and Expanded Disability Status Scale. CONCLUSION: Our modelling strategy detects and validates an ITR score and opens up avenues for building treatment response calculators that are also applicable in routine clinical practice.

Predicting disability progression in multiple sclerosis: Insights from advanced statistical modeling.

BACKGROUND: There is an unmet need for precise methods estimating disease prognosis in multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVE: Using advanced statistical modeling, we assessed the prognostic value of various clinical measures for disability progression. METHODS: Advanced models to assess baseline prognostic factors for disability progression over 2 years were applied to a pooled sample of patients from placebo arms in four different phase III clinical trials. least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and ridge regression, elastic nets, support vector machines, and unconditional and conditional random forests were applied to model time to clinical disability progression confirmed at 24 weeks. Sensitivity analyses for different definitions of a combined endpoint were carried out, and bootstrap was used to assess prediction model performance. RESULTS: A total of 1582 patients were included, of which 434 (27.4%) had disability progression in a combined endpoint over 2 years. Overall model discrimination performance was relatively poor (all C-indices ⩽ 0.65) across all models and across different definitions of progression. CONCLUSION: Inconsistency of prognostic factor importance ranking confirmed the relatively poor prediction ability of baseline factors in modeling disease progression in MS. Our findings underline the importance to explore alternative predictors as well as alternative definitions of commonly used endpoints.

Neurofilament light levels are associated with long-term outcomes in multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Neurofilament light chain (NfL) is a promising marker of disease activity/treatment response in multiple sclerosis (MS), although its predictive value for long-term clinical outcomes remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: We measured NfL from a phase 3 trial in relapsing-remitting MS and investigated its association with outcomes after 8 and 15 years. METHODS: NfL concentrations were measured by single molecule array assay in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) from MS patients (n = 235) in a 2-year randomized clinical trial (RCT) of intramuscular interferon ß-1a, and in serum (n = 164) from the extension study. RESULTS: Year 2 CSF and Year 3 serum NfL were associated with brain parenchymal fraction (BPF) change over 8 years (p < 0.0001, r = -0.46; p < 0.05. r = -0.36, respectively) and were predictive of reaching Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) ⩾ 6.0 at Year 8 (odds ratio (OR) (upper vs lower tertile) = 3.4; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2-9.9, p < 0.05; OR = 11.0, 95% CI = 2.0-114.6; p < 0.01, respectively). Serum NfL concentration (Year 4) was predictive of reaching EDSS score ⩾6.0 at 15 years (OR (upper vs lower tertile) = 4.9; 95% CI = 1.4-20.4; p < 0.05). NfL concentrations were complementary to 2-year BPF change in predicting long-term outcomes. CONCLUSION: Serum and CSF NfL concentrations were associated with long-term clinical outcomes in MS patients and are promising biomarkers for disease severity stratification supporting treatment decisions.

Outcomes of a randomized trial evaluating two approaches for promoting pharmacy-based referrals to the tobacco quitline.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the long-term impact of 2 promising intervention approaches to engage pharmacy personnel (pharmacists, technicians) in referring patients who want to quit smoking to the tobacco quitline. DESIGN: Randomized trial. SETTING: Community pharmacies in Connecticut (n = 32) and Washington (n = 32). INTERVENTION: Two intervention approaches were evaluated: academic detailing (AD), which involved on-site training for pharmacy staff about the quitline, versus mailed quitline materials (MM). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in the overall percentage of quitline registrants who reported hearing about the quitline from any pharmacy during the 6-month baseline monitoring period versus the 12-month intervention period, and between-group comparisons of a) the number of quitline registrants who reported hearing about the quitline from one of the study pharmacies during the 12-month intervention period, and b) the number of quitline cards and brochures distributed to patients during the first 6 months of the intervention period. RESULTS: The percentage of quitline callers who reported having heard about the quitline from a pharmacy increased significantly, from 2.2% during the baseline monitoring period to 3.8% during the 12-month intervention (P < 0.0001). In addition, comparisons controlled for seasonal effects also revealed significant increases in referrals. Across all 64 pharmacies, 10,013 quitline cards and 4755 brochures were distributed. The number of quitline cards distributed and the number registrants who reported hearing about the quitline from a pharmacy did not differ by intervention approach (AD vs. MM), although AD pharmacies distributed more quitline brochures (P = 0.022). CONCLUSION: Brief cessation interventions are feasible in community pharmacies, and the 2 approaches evaluated for engaging pharmacy personnel were similarly effective and collectively led to meaningful increases in the number and proportion of all patients who called the quitline. Involvement of community pharmacy personnel in tobacco cessation presents a significant opportunity to promote quitline services by connecting patients with an effective publicly available resource.

Tobacco cessation education for pharmacists: Face-to-face presentations versus live webinars.

OBJECTIVE To assess the perceived effectiveness of tobacco cessation continuing education for pharmacists in face-to-face presentation versus live webinar modalities. METHODS A continuing pharmacy education (CPE) activity, Do Ask, Do Tell: A Practical Approach to Smoking Cessation, was offered in face-to-face and live webinar modalities. Following the activity, participants completed a brief questionnaire that assessed the anticipated impact of the activity on their smoking cessation counseling practices. RESULTS Of the 1,088 CPE participants, 819 (75%) attended a face-to-face presentation and 269 (25%) participated in a live webinar. Posttraining self-rated ability to address tobacco use was similar between groups ( P = 0.38), and both the face-to-face and live webinar groups reported a significant difference between pre- and posttraining abilities ( P < 0.05 for both groups). Attendees of the face-to-face presentation reported higher likelihoods of providing each of the individual tasks required to provide an effective, brief tobacco cessation intervention ( P < 0.05 for each task). CONCLUSION These data suggest that more value exists in face-to-face education than live webinars when personal and interactive skills are the focus of the activity.

Temporal Relationship Between Serum Neurofilament Light Chain and Radiologic Disease Activity in Patients With Multiple Sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) levels correlate with multiple sclerosis (MS) disease activity, but the dynamics of this correlation are unknown. We evaluated the relationship between sNfL levels and radiologic MS disease activity through monthly assessments during the 24-week natalizumab treatment interruption period in RESTORE (NCT01071083). METHODS: In the RESTORE trial, participants with relapsing forms of MS who had received natalizumab for ≥12 months were randomized to either continue or stop natalizumab and followed with MRI and blood draws every 4 weeks to week 28 and again at week 52 The sNfL was measured, and its dynamics were correlated with the development of gadolinium-enhancing (Gd+) lesions. Log-linear trend in sNfL levels were modeled longitudinally using generalized estimating equations with robust variance estimator from baseline to week 28. RESULTS: Of 175 patients enrolled in RESTORE, 166 had serum samples for analysis. Participants with Gd+ lesions were younger (37.7 vs 43.1, p = 0.001) and had lower Expanded Disability Status Scale scores at baseline (2.7 vs 3.4, p = 0.017) than participants without Gd+ lesions. sNfL levels increased in participants with Gd+ lesions (n = 65) compared with those without (n = 101, mean change from baseline to maximum sNfL value, 12.1 vs 3.2 pg/mL, respectively; p = 0.003). As the number of Gd+ lesions increased, peak median sNfL change also increased by 1.4, 3.0, 4.3, and 19.6 pg/mL in the Gd+ lesion groups of 1 (n = 12), 2-3 (n = 18), 4-9 (n = 21), and ≥10 (n = 14) lesions, respectively. However, 46 of 65 (71%) participants with Gd+ lesions did not increase above the 95th percentile threshold of the group without Gd+ lesions. The initial increase of sNfL typically trailed the first observation of Gd+ lesions, and the peak increase in sNfL was a median [interquartile range] of 8 [0, 12] weeks after the first appearance of the Gd+ lesion. DISCUSSION: Although sNfL correlated with the presence of Gd+ lesions, most participants with Gd+ lesions did not have elevations in sNfL levels. These observations have implications for the use and interpretation of sNfL as a biomarker for monitoring MS disease activity in controlled trials and clinical practice.

Characterizing the 'feel-good experience' in multiple sclerosis patients treated with natalizumab or other therapies.

Aim: Patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) treated with natalizumab have anecdotally reported a 'feel-good experience' (FGE). The authors characterized the FGE using survey data from patients with RRMS treated with natalizumab or other disease-modifying therapies (other-DMT). Methods: Questionnaire data from RRMS patients who use MyMSTeam, an online patient social network, were analyzed. Results: The survey included 347 patients (95 natalizumab; 252 other-DMT). More natalizumab than other-DMT patients self-reported having an FGE (62.1 vs 44.8%; p = 0.001) as well as other physical, emotional and cognitive benefits. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that physical, emotional and cognitive benefits were more commonly reported by patients treated with natalizumab than those treated with other disease-modifying therapies and helps characterize patient-reported factors associated with the FGE.

Processing speed test: Results from a Japanese normative sample of healthy participants compared with a US normative sample.

BACKGROUND: The Processing Speed Test (PST), a validated iPad®-based cognitive screening test for MS, has been applied to the cognitive assessment of Japanese MS patients using US normative data. METHODS: To develop PST normative data from Japanese healthy volunteers and compare the PST score distribution between Japanese and US healthy volunteers, 254 healthy Japanese-speaking volunteers were enrolled and stratified by age (20-65 years). Potential participants with a Mini-Mental State Examination score < 27 were excluded. PST raw scores (total correct) were from the Japan cohort and compared with age-restricted US normative data and propensity score-matched data created by matching sex, age, and educational level from a published study of 428 healthy participants. PST score distributions and standardized z-scores were compared using t-test and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test statistics. RESULTS: The mean age of the Japan cohort was 44.1 years. The PST scores of Japanese volunteers were significantly different from those of the age-restricted (mean ± SD 61.8 ± 10.1 vs 53.7 ± 10.8; p < 0.001) and the propensity score-matched US cohort (62.1 ± 10.1 vs 53.3 ± 10.6; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Regression analyses centered on US normative data could underestimate disease severity in Japanese MS patients, suggesting that separate normative data should be considered for each population sample.

Methods for comparative effectiveness based on time to confirmed disability progression with irregular observations in multiple sclerosis.

Real-world data sources offer opportunities to compare the effectiveness of treatments in practical clinical settings. However, relevant outcomes are often recorded selectively and collected at irregular measurement times. It is therefore common to convert the available visits to a standardized schedule with equally spaced visits. Although more advanced imputation methods exist, they are not designed to recover longitudinal outcome trajectories and typically assume that missingness is non-informative. We, therefore, propose an extension of multilevel multiple imputation methods to facilitate the analysis of real-world outcome data that is collected at irregular observation times. We illustrate multilevel multiple imputation in a case study evaluating two disease-modifying therapies for multiple sclerosis in terms of time to confirmed disability progression. This survival outcome is derived from repeated measurements of the Expanded Disability Status Scale, which is collected when patients come to the healthcare center for a clinical visit and for which longitudinal trajectories can be estimated. Subsequently, we perform a simulation study to compare the performance of multilevel multiple imputation to commonly used single imputation methods. Results indicate that multilevel multiple imputation leads to less biased treatment effect estimates and improves the coverage of confidence intervals, even when outcomes are missing not at random.

Serum neurofilament light-chain levels and long-term treatment outcomes in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients: A post hoc analysis of the randomized CombiRx trial.

Background: CombiRx was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial in treatment-naive relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients randomized to intramuscular interferon beta-1a (IM IFN beta-1a), glatiramer acetate (GA), or both therapies. Objective: This analysis investigated changes in serum neurofilament light-chain (sNfL) levels in response to treatment and assessed baseline sNfL as a predictor of relapse. Methods: RRMS patients treated with IM IFN beta-1a 30 µg weekly + placebo (n = 159), GA 20 mg/mL daily + placebo (n = 172), or IM IFN beta-1a + GA (n = 344) were included. A linear mixed model compared sNfL values over time. Cox regression models analyzed baseline sNfL and gadolinium-enhancing (Gd+) lesions as predictors of relapse. Results: In all treatment arms, the proportion of patients with sNfL ≥16 pg/mL decreased significantly from baseline to 6 months and was maintained at 36 months. A significantly higher percentage of patients with both baseline sNfL ≥16 pg/mL and ≥1 Gd+ lesion experienced relapses within 90 days compared to patients with sNfL <16 pg/mL and/or no Gd+ lesions. Conclusion: sNfL levels were reduced within 6 months and remained low at 36 months. Results suggest that the combination of lesion activity and sNfL was a stronger predictor of relapse than either factor alone.