Recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding with extended anticoagulation: the VTE-PREDICT risk score.

AIMS: Deciding to stop or continue anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) after initial treatment is challenging, as individual risks of recurrence and bleeding are heterogeneous. The present study aimed to develop and externally validate models for predicting 5-year risks of recurrence and bleeding in patients with VTE without cancer who completed at least 3 months of initial treatment, which can be used to estimate individual absolute benefits and harms of extended anticoagulation. METHODS AND RESULTS: Competing risk-adjusted models were derived to predict recurrent VTE and clinically relevant bleeding (non-major and major) using 14 readily available patient characteristics. The models were derived from combined individual patient data from the Bleeding Risk Study, Hokusai-VTE, PREFER-VTE, RE-MEDY, and RE-SONATE (n = 15,141, 220 recurrences, 189 bleeding events). External validity was assessed in the Danish VTE cohort, EINSTEIN-CHOICE, GARFIELD-VTE, MEGA, and Tromsø studies (n = 59 257, 2283 recurrences, 3335 bleeding events). Absolute treatment effects were estimated by combining the models with hazard ratios from trials and meta-analyses. External validation in different settings showed agreement between predicted and observed risks up to 5 years, with C-statistics ranging from 0.48-0.71 (recurrence) and 0.61-0.68 (bleeding). In the Danish VTE cohort, 5-year risks ranged from 4% to 19% for recurrent VTE and 1% -19% for bleeding. CONCLUSION: The VTE-PREDICT risk score can be applied to estimate the effect of extended anticoagulant treatment for individual patients with VTE and to support shared decision-making.

External validation of the SI2NCAL2C score for outcomes following cerebral venous thrombosis.

OBJECTIVES: Prognostication for cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) remains difficult. We sought to validate the SI2NCAL2C score in an international cohort. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The SI2NCAL2C score was originally developed to predict poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 3-6) at 6 months, and mortality at 30 days and 1 year using data from the International CVT Consortium. The SI2NCAL2C score uses 9 variables: the absence of any female-sex-specific risk factors, intracerebral hemorrhage, central nervous system infection, focal neurological deficits, coma, age, lower level of hemoglobin, higher level of glucose, and cancer. The ACTION-CVT study was an international retrospective study that enrolled consecutive patients across 27 centers. The poor outcome score was validated using 90-day mRS due to lack of follow-up at the 6-month time-point in the ACTION-CVT cohort. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plots. Missing data were imputed using the additive regression and predictive mean matching methods. Bootstrapping was performed with 1000 iterations. RESULTS: Mortality data were available for 950 patients and poor outcome data were available for 587 of 1,025 patients enrolled in ACTION-CVT. Compared to the International CVT Consortium, the ACTION-CVT cohort was older, less often female, and with milder clinical presentation. Mortality was 2.5% by 30 days and 6.0% by one year. At 90-days, 16.7% had a poor outcome. The SI2NCAL2C score had an AUC of 0.74 [95% CI 0.69-0.79] for 90-day poor outcome, 0.72 [0.60-0.82] for mortality by 30 days, and 0.82 [0.76-0.88] for mortality by one year. CONCLUSIONS: The SI2NCAL2C score had acceptable to good performance in an international external validation cohort. The SI2NCAL2C score warrants additional validation studies in diverse populations and clinical implementation studies.

A scoring tool to predict mortality and dependency after cerebral venous thrombosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: A prognostic score was developed to predict dependency and death after cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) to identify patients for targeted therapy in future clinical trials. METHODS: Data from the International CVT Consortium were used. Patients with pre-existent functional dependency were excluded. Logistic regression was used to predict poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale score 3-6) at 6 months and Cox regression to predict 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality. Potential predictors derived from previous studies were selected with backward stepwise selection. Coefficients were shrunk using ridge regression to adjust for optimism in internal validation. RESULTS: Of 1454 patients with CVT, the cumulative number of deaths was 44 (3%) and 70 (5%) for 30 days and 1 year, respectively. Of 1126 patients evaluated regarding functional outcome, 137 (12%) were dependent or dead at 6 months. From the retained predictors for both models, the SI2 NCAL2 C score was derived utilizing the following components: absence of female-sex-specific risk factor, intracerebral hemorrhage, infection of the central nervous system, neurological focal deficits, coma, age, lower level of hemoglobin (g/l), higher level of glucose (mmol/l) at admission, and cancer. C-statistics were 0.80 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.75-0.84), 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.88) and 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.88) for the poor outcome, 30-day and 1-year mortality model, respectively. Calibration plots indicated a good model fit between predicted and observed values. The SI2 NCAL2 C score calculator is freely available at www.cerebralvenousthrombosis.com. CONCLUSIONS: The SI2 NCAL2 C score shows adequate performance for estimating individual risk of mortality and dependency after CVT but external validation of the score is warranted.

The effect of physician training and patient education on the discussion of care decisions at the internal medicine outpatient clinic.

BACKGROUND: Care decision discussions are intended to align treatment with the patient's wishes, goals and values. To overcome the numerous barriers to such discussions, physicians as well as patients need tailored support. We evaluate the effect of a physicians' training and a conversation aid for patients about care decisions on patient and physician outcomes. METHODS: At the internal medicine outpatient clinic of the University Medical Centre Utrecht, a 1:1 randomized, parallel-group study (patient conversation aid) was combined with a pre-post intervention (physicians' training) design. Primary outcome was patient satisfaction, secondary outcomes were patient-doctor relationship, shared-decision-making, doctor preparedness and patient appreciation of the conversation aid. RESULTS: Between October 2018 and February 2020 11 physicians (36% residents, 73% female) and 185 patients (median age 58 years (interquartile range (IQR) 50-68), 60% male) participated. Only 28% of the patients reported a care decision discussion during the consultation. We found no effect of the interventions on patient satisfaction (effect sizes -0.14 (95% confidence interval (CI) -0.56-0.27) for conversation aid; 0.04 (95% CI -0.40-0.48) for physician's training), nor on the patient-doctor relationship or shared-decision-making. However, physicians felt more prepared to discuss care decisions after training (median 3 (IQR 1-4) vs 1 (IQR 0-3), p = 0.015). Patients assessed the conversation aid informative and gave an overall mark of median 7 (IQR 7-8). CONCLUSIONS: First steps towards fruitful discussions about care decisions were made: patients considered the conversation aid informative and physicians felt better prepared to discuss care decisions after training. The low number of care decision conversations patients reported shows exactly how important it is to focus on interventions that facilitate these discussions, for both the patient and physician. Further work needs to be done to establish the best way to empower patients and physicians. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Dutch trial register, trial 6998 (NTR 7188), registered 04/05/2018, https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/6998 .

The Prognostic Value of Syncope on Mortality in Patients With Pulmonary Embolism: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Syncope is a presenting symptom in 10% to 20% of patients with pulmonary embolism. We perform a meta-analysis to clarify the prognostic value of syncope on short-term mortality in pulmonary embolism patients and its association with hemodynamic instability. METHODS: PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library were searched up until January 7, 2020. Studies reporting inhospital or 30-day mortality of adults with pulmonary embolism with and without syncope were included. Quality of included studies was evaluated with the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. Meta-analysis was conducted to derive pooled odds ratios (ORs) and risk differences for the relation of syncope with mortality and hemodynamic instability. To study the influence of hemodynamic instability on the association between syncope and mortality, meta-regression was performed. RESULTS: Search and selection resulted in 26 studies, of which 20 were pooled, involving 9,419 of 335,120 patients (3%) with syncope. Syncope was associated with higher mortality (OR 1.82; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14 to 2.90; I2 88%; risk difference 4% [95% CI 1% to 8%]) and higher prevalence of hemodynamic instability (OR 4.36; 95% CI 2.27 to 8.37; I2 93%; risk difference 12% [95% CI 7% to 18%]). OR for mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism with syncope versus without it was higher in the presence of a larger difference in hemodynamic instability between groups (coefficient 0.05; 95% CI 0.01 to 0.09). CONCLUSION: The association between syncope and short-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism is explained by a difference in hemodynamic instability. This emphasizes the importance of risk stratification by hemodynamic status in pulmonary embolism patients with and without syncope.

Qualitative experiences, values, and decisional needs of patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism who suffer bleeding-"This pill will keep you alive tonight".

Background: Contemporary guidelines recommend extended-duration anticoagulation among patients with a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE). Little is known about whether this recommendation aligns with patient values after a bleeding complication. Objectives: To explore the experiences, values, and decisional needs of patients with unprovoked VTE related to extended-duration treatment after an anticoagulant-associated bleed. Methods: In this descriptive, qualitative study, face to face online semistructured interviews were conducted with patients with unprovoked VTE who had experienced bleeding and continued anticoagulant treatment in one academic hospital in Canada. Data were analyzed using directed content analysis to identify themes. Themes were mapped onto the Ottawa Decisional Support Framework to identify decisional needs. Results: Between September and December 2021, 14 patients were interviewed (age 41-69 years; 9 females). Many patients were not aware of the option to stop anticoagulation and had limited understanding of the decision about treatment duration. Despite the negative quality-of-life impact of clinically relevant bleeding during VTE treatment, the majority continued anticoagulation due to emotional trauma of VTE diagnosis, a perception that bleeding would be more manageable than VTE recurrence, a desire to maintain a connection to subspecialty care or non-VTE related benefits (eg, cancer diagnosis, protection from COVID-19). Patients' decisional needs included lack of choice awareness, inadequate support for participation, lack of personalized risk stratification, and inadequate information on monitoring and managing heavy menstrual bleeding. Conclusion: Despite the impact of anticoagulant-associated bleeding on quality of life, patients preferred continuing with anticoagulation for reasons extending beyond secondary VTE prevention. Effective decision-support interventions are needed to address unmet decisional needs.

Balancing risks of recurrent venous thromboembolism and bleeding with extended anticoagulation: a decision analysis.

Background: A decision to stop or continue anticoagulation after 3 months of anticoagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) should be made by weighing individual risks of recurrence and bleeding. Objectives: To determine the optimal ratio of recurrence risk reduction to increase the risk of bleeding in terms of maximizing quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. Methods: Using a microsimulation model, outcomes within 5 years were simulated after assigning extended treatment if absolute recurrence risk reduction outweighed absolute increase in clinically relevant bleeding risk (International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis definition), weighted by a certain ratio. Data were simulated based on the Bleeding Risk Study, a prospective cohort including patients after ≥3 months of anticoagulation for unprovoked VTE or provoked VTE with history of VTE. The VTE-PREDICT risk score was used to estimate 5-year risks of recurrent VTE and clinically relevant bleeding. Results: Among 10,000 individuals (mean age, 60.2 years, 36% female), the ratio of 0.90 (95% CI, 0.51-3.40; ie, bleeding is considered 0.90 the severity of recurrent VTE), with 99% of patients assigned extended anticoagulation, was considered optimal and resulted in 93 (95% CI, -23 to 203) additional QALYs compared with the least favorable ratio (5.10, 0% extended anticoagulation). At the optimal ratio, treatment based on VTE-PREDICT yielded 44 (95% CI, -69 to 157) additional QALYs versus standard of care. Conclusion: With the current evidence, the optimal ratio between relevant bleeding risk and absolute recurrence risk reduction remains uncertain. Our results confirm that clinical equipoise exists regarding the decision to stop or continue anticoagulation after initial VTE treatment, emphasizing the importance of shared decision-making.

Redefining clinical venous thromboembolism phenotypes: a novel approach using latent class analysis.

BACKGROUND: Patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) are commonly classified by the presence or absence of provoking factors at the time of VTE to guide treatment decisions. This approach may not capture the heterogeneity of the disease and its prognosis. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate clinically important novel phenotypic clusters among patients with VTE without cancer and to explore their association with anticoagulant treatment and clinical outcomes. METHODS: Latent class analysis was performed with 18 baseline clinical variables in 3062 adult patients with VTE without active cancer participating in PREFER in VTE, a noninterventional disease registry. The derived latent classes were externally validated in a post hoc analysis of Hokusai-VTE (n = 6593), a randomized trial comparing edoxaban with warfarin. The associations between cluster membership and anticoagulant treatment, recurrent VTE, bleeding, and mortality after initial treatment were studied. RESULTS: The following 5 clusters were identified: young men cluster (n = 1126, 37%), young women cluster (n = 215, 7%), older people cluster (n = 1106, 36%), comorbidity cluster (n = 447, 15%), and history of venous thromboembolism cluster (n = 168, 5%). Patient characteristics varied by age, sex, medical history, and treatment patterns. Consistent clusters were evident on external validation. In Cox proportional hazard models, recurrence risk was lower in the young women cluster (hazard ratio [HR], 0.27; 95% CI, 0.12-0.61) compared with the comorbidity cluster, after adjusting for extended anticoagulation. The risk of bleeding was lower in young men, young women, and older people clusters (HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.38-0.66; HR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.11-0.46; and HR, 0.55; 95% CI 0.41-0.73, respectively). CONCLUSION: The heterogeneity of VTE cases extends beyond the distinction between provoked and unprovoked VTE.

Deciding on Treatment Duration for Unprovoked Venous Thromboembolism: What is Important to Patients?

BACKGROUND: After 3 months of anticoagulation for unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE), a decision must be made to stop or continue indefinitely by weighing risks of recurrence and bleeding through shared decision-making (SDM). Despite the importance of patient involvement, patients' perspectives on treatment duration are understudied. AIM: To describe the knowledge of VTE and anticoagulation, need for education, perception of risks and benefits of extended treatment, and factors influencing patient's preference to stop or continue treatment after unprovoked VTE. METHODS: Semistructured interviews were conducted between May 2019 and August 2020 with adults with unprovoked VTE in one university hospital and one general hospital. Interviews were audio-recorded and transcribed verbatim. Data were analyzed using conventional content analysis. RESULTS: Eighteen patients were interviewed (median age 64, range: 32-83 years). Three major themes were identified: diagnosis and initial treatment, SDM, and perception of treatment. Education, knowledge, coping, and attitude toward health care suffused major themes. The impact of VTE on daily life varied between individuals, as did the preferred extent of SDM. Overall, patients who felt involved and informed were more satisfied with received care, more aware of risks and benefits of treatment, and more likely to be treatment adherent. Generally, patients were more concerned with risk of recurrent VTE than with risk of bleeding during anticoagulation. We identified a multitude of aspects important to patients when deciding to stop or continue anticoagulation. CONCLUSION: Sufficient information and an individualized extent of SDM are of crucial importance for patients when deciding on treatment duration after unprovoked VTE.

Estimating Bleeding Risk in Patients with Cancer-Associated Thrombosis: Evaluation of Existing Risk Scores and Development of a New Risk Score.

BACKGROUND: Bleeding risk is highly relevant for treatment decisions in cancer-associated thrombosis (CAT). Several risk scores exist, but have never been validated in patients with CAT and are not recommended for practice. OBJECTIVES: To compare methods of estimating clinically relevant (major and clinically relevant nonmajor) bleeding risk in patients with CAT: (1) existing risk scores for bleeding in venous thromboembolism, (2) pragmatic classification based on cancer type, and (3) new prediction model. METHODS: In a posthoc analysis of the Hokusai VTE Cancer study, a randomized trial comparing edoxaban with dalteparin for treatment of CAT, seven bleeding risk scores were externally validated (ACCP-VTE, HAS-BLED, Hokusai, Kuijer, Martinez, RIETE, and VTE-BLEED). The predictive performance of these scores was compared with a pragmatic classification based on cancer type (gastrointestinal; genitourinary; other) and a newly derived competing risk-adjusted prediction model based on clinical predictors for clinically relevant bleeding within 6 months after CAT diagnosis with nonbleeding-related mortality as the competing event ("CAT-BLEED"). RESULTS: Data of 1,046 patients (149 events) were analyzed. Predictive performance of existing risk scores was poor to moderate (C-statistics: 0.50-0.57; poor calibration). Internal validation of the pragmatic classification and "CAT-BLEED" showed moderate performance (respective C-statistics: 0.61; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.56-0.66, and 0.63; 95% CI 0.58-0.68; good calibration). CONCLUSION: Existing risk scores for bleeding perform poorly after CAT. Pragmatic classification based on cancer type provides marginally better estimates of clinically relevant bleeding risk. Further improvement may be achieved with "CAT-BLEED," but this requires external validation in practice-based settings and with other DOACs and its clinical usefulness is yet to be demonstrated.

Upper Extremity Deep Vein Thrombosis and Asymptomatic Vein Occlusion in Patients With Transvenous Leads: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Aims: The presence of transvenous leads for cardiac device therapy may increase the risk of venous thromboembolisms. The epidemiology of these complications has not yet been determined systematically. Therefore, this study aims to determine (I) the incidence of symptomatic upper extremity deep vein thrombosis (UEDVT) and (II) the prevalence of asymptomatic upper extremity vein occlusion in patients with transvenous leads, both after the initial 2 months following lead implantation. Methods: PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library were searched until March 31, 2020 to identify studies reporting incidence of UEDVT and prevalence of asymptomatic vein occlusion after the initial 2 months after implantation in adult patients with transvenous leads. Incidence per 100 patient years of follow-up (PY) and proportions (%) were calculated to derive pooled estimates of incidence and prevalence. Results: Search and selection yielded 20 and 24 studies reporting on UEDVT and asymptomatic vein occlusion, respectively. The overall pooled incidence of UEDVT was 0.9 (95% CI 0.5-1.4) per 100PY after 2 months after lead implantation. High statistical heterogeneity was present among studies (I2 = 82.4%; P = < 0.001) and only three studies considered to be at low risk of bias. The overall pooled prevalence of asymptomatic upper extremity vein occlusion was 8.6% (95% CI 6.0-11.5) with high heterogeneity (I2 = 81.4%; P = <0.001). Meta-regression analysis showed more leads to be associated with a higher risk of UEDVT. Conclusion: Transvenous leads are an important risk factor for symptomatic UEDVT, which may occur up to multiple years after initial lead implantation. Existing data on UEDVT after lead implantation is mostly of poor quality, which emphasizes the need for high quality prospective research. Asymptomatic vein occlusion is present in a substantial proportion of patients and may complicate any future lead addition. Clinical Trial Registration: (URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42020178136, Identifier: PROSPERO 2020 CRD42020178136).

Prediction models for recurrence and bleeding in patients with venous thromboembolism: A systematic review and critical appraisal.

INTRODUCTION: Prediction models for recurrence and bleeding are infrequently used when deciding on anticoagulant treatment duration after venous thromboembolism (VTE) due to concerns about performance and validity. Our aim was to critically appraise these models by systematically summarizing data from derivation and validation studies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: MEDLINE and CENTRAL were searched until November 15th, 2019. Studies on prediction models for recurrence or bleeding after at least 3 months of anticoagulation in adult patients with VTE were included. The PROBAST, ROBINS-I and RoB2 tools were used to assess risk of bias and applicability. RESULTS: Selection yielded 18 studies evaluating 8 models for recurrence (7 on development; 9 on validation; 1 update). Generally, models for recurrent VTE appeared to perform poorly to moderately in external validation studies (C-statistics 0.39-0.66, one 0.83). However, impact studies show that HERDOO2 and Vienna prediction model may identify patients with unprovoked VTE at low recurrence risk. Sixteen studies evaluating 14 models for anticoagulation-related bleeding were identified (7 on development; 9 on validation). Although some models seemed promising in development studies, their predictive performance was poor to moderate in external validation (C-statistics 0.52-0.71). All but 3 studies were considered at high risk of bias, mainly due to limitations in the statistical analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Prognostic models for recurrence and anticoagulation-related bleeding risk often have important methodological limitations and insufficient predictive accuracy. These findings do not support their use in clinical practice to weigh risks of recurrence and bleeding when deciding on continuing anticoagulation after initial treatment of VTE.

Short-term versus extended anticoagulant treatment for unprovoked venous thromboembolism: A survey on guideline adherence and physicians' considerations.

BACKGROUND: In patients with unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE), anticoagulant treatment duration should be decided by weighing bleeding risk versus risk of recurrent VTE, considering patient's preference. Because both risks differ between individuals, this recommendation presumably leads to wide variation in clinical management. OBJECTIVES: To identify physician's considerations when deciding between short-term and extended anticoagulation and to assess how current guidelines are put to practice. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An online, 33-item survey was developed, containing questions on clinical management, considerations regarding treatment duration, risk scores, information tools and shared decision-making. It was distributed to internists, pulmonologists and residents treating patients with VTE in the Netherlands. RESULTS: 69 internists and 73 pulmonologists including 24 residents participated in the survey. Extended treatment was preferred by 73% (104/142) of participants. Most important reasons for extended treatment were, in descending order: patient's preference, active malignancy, low estimated bleeding risk, history of VTE and hemodynamic instability during previous VTE. Most important reasons for short-term treatment were frequent falls, history of major bleeding, previous bleeding during anticoagulation, patient's preference and thrombocytopenia. Although existing risk scores are infrequently used, physicians express their need for scores combining risks of recurrence and bleeding to aid individualized decision-making. CONCLUSION: Our results confirm a wide variety of considerations regarding treatment duration in patients with unprovoked VTE. Although most participants followed guidelines' recommendations to prescribe indefinite treatment in absence of contraindications, rationale is not always supported by evidence. A clinical decision tool to estimate and weigh risks of recurrence and bleeding is warranted.

Local Ultrasound-Facilitated Thrombolysis in High-Risk Pulmonary Embolism: First Dutch Experience.

PURPOSE: To provide insight into the current use and results of ultrasound-facilitated catheter-directed thrombolysis (USAT) in patients with high-risk pulmonary embolism (PE). INTRODUCTION: Systemic thrombolysis is an effective treatment for hemodynamically unstable, high-risk PE, but is associated with bleeding complications. USAT is thought to reduce bleeding and is therefore advocated in patients with high-risk PE and contraindications for systemic thrombolysis. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of all patients who underwent USAT for high-risk PE in the Netherlands from 2010 to 2017. Characteristics and outcomes were analyzed. Primary outcomes were major (including intracranial and fatal) bleeding and all-cause mortality after 1 month. Secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality and recurrent venous thromboembolism within 3 months. RESULTS: 33 patients underwent USAT for high-risk PE. Major bleeding occurred in 12 patients (36%, 95% CI 22-53), including 1 intracranial and 3 fatal bleeding. All-cause mortality after 1 month was 48% (16/33, 95% CI 31-66). All-cause mortality after 3 months was 50% (16/32, 95% CI 34-66), recurrent venous thromboembolism occurred in 1 patient (1/32, 3%, 95% CI 1-16). CONCLUSIONS: This study was the first to describe characteristics and outcomes after USAT in a study population of patients with high-risk PE only, an understudied population. Although USAT is considered a relatively safe treatment option, our results illustrate that at least caution is needed in critically ill patients with high-risk PE. Further research in patients with high-risk PE is warranted to guide patient selection.