HIV care cost in England: a cross-sectional analysis of antiretroviral treatment and the impact of generic introduction.

OBJECTIVES: Reliable and timely HIV care cost estimates are important for policy option appraisals of HIV treatment and prevention strategies. As HIV clinical management and outcomes have changed, we aimed to update profiles of antiretroviral (ARV) usage pattern, patent/market exclusivity details and management costs in adults (≥ 18 years old) accessing HIV specialist care in England. METHODS: The data reported quarterly to the HIV and AIDS Reporting System in England was used to identify ARV usage pattern, and were combined with British National Formulary (BNF) prices, non-ARV care costs and patent/market exclusivity information to generate average survival-adjusted lifetime care costs. The cumulative budget impact from 2018 to the year in which all current ARVs were expected to lose market exclusivity was calculated for a hypothetical 85 000 (± 5000) person cohort, which provided an illustration of potential financial savings afforded by bioequivalent generic switches. Price scenarios explored BNF70 (September 2015) prices and generics at 10/20/30/50% of proprietary prices. The analyses took National Health Service (NHS) England's perspective (as the payer), and results are presented in 2016/2017 British pounds. RESULTS: By 2033, most currently available ARVs would lose market exclusivity; that is, generics could be available. Average per person lifetime HIV cost was ~£200 000 (3.5% annual discount) or ~£400 000 (undiscounted), reducing to ~£70 000 (3.5% annual discount; ~£120 000 undiscounted) with the use of generics (assuming that generics cost 10% of proprietary prices). The cumulative budget to cover 85 000 (± 5000) persons for 16 years (2018-2033) was £10.5 (± 0.6) billion, reducing to £3.6 (± 0.2) billion with the use of generics. CONCLUSIONS: HIV management costs are high but financial efficiency could be improved by optimizing generic use for treatment and prevention to mitigate the high cost of lifelong HIV treatment. Earlier implementation of generics as they become available offers the potential to maximize the scale of the financial savings.

Inequalities in zoster disease burden: a population-based cohort study to identify social determinants using linked data from the U.K. Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

BACKGROUND: Zoster vaccination was introduced in England in 2013, where tackling health inequalities is a statutory requirement. However, specific population groups with higher zoster burden remain largely unidentified. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate health inequalities in zoster disease burden prior to zoster vaccine introduction in England. METHODS: This population-based cohort study used anonymized U.K. primary care data linked to hospitalization and deprivation data. Individuals aged ≥ 65 years without prior zoster history (N = 862 470) were followed from 1 September 2003 to 31 August 2013. Poisson regression was used to obtain adjusted rate ratios (ARRs) for the association of sociodemographic factors (ethnicity, immigration status, individuals' area-level deprivation, care home residence, living arrangements) with first zoster episode. Possible mediation by comorbidities and immunosuppressive medications was also assessed. RESULTS: There were 37 014 first zoster episodes, with an incidence of 8·79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 8·70-8·88] per 1000 person-years at risk. In multivariable analyses, factors associated with higher zoster rates included care home residence (10% higher vs. those not in care homes), being a woman (16% higher vs. men), nonimmigrants (~30% higher than immigrants) and white ethnicity (for example, twice the rate compared with those of black ethnicity). Zoster incidence decreased slightly with increasing deprivation (ARR most vs. least deprived 0·96 (95% CI 0·92-0·99) and among those living alone (ARR 0·96, 95% CI 0·94-0·98). Mediating variables made little difference to the ARR of social factors but were themselves associated with increased zoster burden (ARR varied from 1·11 to 3·84). CONCLUSIONS: The burden of zoster was higher in specific sociodemographic groups. Further study is needed to ascertain whether these individuals are attending for zoster vaccination.

The changing epidemiology of varicella and herpes zoster in Hong Kong before universal varicella vaccination in 2014.

In Hong Kong, universal varicella vaccination started in July 2014. Before this, children could receive varicella vaccine via the private market. We analysed the epidemiology of varicella and zoster before universal vaccination. We estimated varicella vaccination coverage through surveys in preschool children. We estimated the burden of varicella and zoster with varicella notifications from 1999/00 to 2013/14, Accident and Emergency Department (A&E) attendance and inpatient admissions to public hospitals from 2004/05 to 2013/14. We fitted a catalytic model to serological data on antibodies against varicella-zoster virus to estimate the force of infection. We found that varicella vaccination coverage gradually increased to about 50% before programme inception. In children younger than 5 years, the annual rate of varicella notifications, varicella admission and zoster A&E attendance generally declined. The annual notification, A&E attendance and hospitalisation rate of varicella and zoster generally increased for individuals between 10 and 59 years old. Varicella serology indicated an age shift during the study period towards a higher proportion of infections in slightly older individuals, but the change was most notable before vaccine licensure. In conclusion, we observed a shift in the burden of varicella to slightly older age groups with a corresponding increase in incidence but it cannot necessarily be attributed to private market vaccine coverage alone. Increasing varicella vaccination uptake in the private market might affect varicella transmission and epidemiology, but not to the level of interrupting transmission.

The cost of hospital care for management of invasive group A streptococcal infections in England.

The objective of this study was to estimate the direct financial costs of hospital care for management of invasive group A streptococcal (GAS) infections using hospital records for cases diagnosed in England. We linked laboratory-confirmed cases (n = 3696) identified through national surveillance to hospital episode statistics and reimbursement codes. From these codes we estimated the direct hospital costs of admissions. Almost all notified invasive GAS cases (92% of 3696) were successfully matched to a primary hospital admission. Of these, secondary admissions (within 30 days of primary admission) were further identified for 593 (17%). After exclusion of nosocomial cases (12%), the median costs of primary and secondary hospital admissions were estimated by subgroup analysis as £1984-£2212 per case, totalling £4·43-£6·34 million per year in England. With adjustment for unmatched cases this equated to £4·84-£6·93 million per year. Adults aged 16-64 years accounted for 48% of costs but only 40% of cases, largely due to an increased number of surgical procedures. The direct costs of hospital admissions for invasive GAS infection are substantial. These estimated costs will contribute to a full assessment of the total economic burden of invasive GAS infection as a means to assess potential savings through prevention measures.

The daily updated Dutch national database on COVID-19 epidemiology, vaccination and sewage surveillance.

The Dutch national open database on COVID-19 has been incrementally expanded since its start on 30 April 2020 and now includes datasets on symptoms, tests performed, individual-level positive cases and deaths, cases and deaths among vulnerable populations, settings of transmission, hospital and ICU admissions, SARS-CoV-2 variants, viral loads in sewage, vaccinations and the effective reproduction number. This data is collected by municipal health services, laboratories, hospitals, sewage treatment plants, vaccination providers and citizens and is cleaned, analysed and published, mostly daily, by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) in the Netherlands, using automated scripts. Because these datasets cover the key aspects of the pandemic and are available at detailed geographical level, they are essential to gain a thorough understanding of the past and current COVID-19 epidemiology in the Netherlands. Future purposes of these datasets include country-level comparative analysis on the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 in different contexts, such as different cultural values or levels of socio-economic disparity, and studies on COVID-19 and weather factors.

Estimating time to onset of swine influenza symptoms after initial novel A(H1N1v) viral infection.

Characterization of the incubation time from infection to onset is important for understanding the natural history of infectious diseases. Attempts to estimate the incubation time distribution for novel A(H1N1v) have been, up to now, based on limited data or peculiar samples. We characterized this distribution for a generic group of symptomatic cases using laboratory-confirmed swine influenza case-information. Estimates of the incubation distribution for the pandemic influenza were derived through parametric time-to-event analyses of data on onset of symptoms and exposure dates, accounting for interval censoring. We estimated a mean of about 1·6-1·7 days with a standard deviation of 2 days for the incubation time distribution in those who became symptomatic after infection with the A(H1N1v) virus strain. Separate analyses for the <15 years and ≥ 15 years age groups showed a significant (P<0·02) difference with a longer mean incubation time in the older age group.

Lower vaccine uptake amongst older individuals living alone: A systematic review and meta-analysis of social determinants of vaccine uptake.

INTRODUCTION: Vaccination is a key intervention to reduce infectious disease mortality and morbidity amongst older individuals. Identifying social factors for vaccine uptake enables targeted interventions to reduce health inequalities. OBJECTIVE: To systematically appraise and quantify social factors associated with vaccine uptake amongst individuals aged ≥60years from Europe. METHODS: We searched Medline and Embase from inception to 24/02/2016. The association of vaccine uptake was examined for social factors relevant at an individual level, to provide insight into individuals' environment and enable development of targeted interventions by healthcare providers to deliver equitable healthcare. Factors included: living alone, marital status, education, income, vaccination costs, area-level deprivation, social class, urban versus rural residence, immigration status and religion. Between-study heterogeneity for each factor was identified using I2-statistics and Q-statistics, and investigated by stratification and meta-regression analysis. Meta-analysis was conducted, when appropriate, using fixed- or random-effects models. RESULTS: From 11,754 titles, 35 eligible studies were identified (uptake of: seasonal influenza vaccine (SIV) only (n=27) or including pneumococcal vaccine (PV) (n=5); herpes zoster vaccine (n=1); pandemic influenza vaccine (n=1); PV only (n=1)). Higher SIV uptake was reported for individuals not living alone (summary odds ratios (OR)=1.39 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16-1.68). Lower SIV uptake was observed in immigrants and in more deprived areas: summary OR=0.57 (95%CI: 0.47-0.68) and risk ratio=0.93 (95%CI: 0.92-0.94) respectively. Higher SIV uptake was associated with higher income (OR=1.26 (95%CI: 1.08-1.47)) and higher education (OR=1.05 (95%CI: 1-1.11)) in adequately adjusted studies. Between-study heterogeneity did not appear to result from variation in categorisation of social factors, but for education was partly explained by varying vaccination costs (meta-regression analysis p=<0.0001); individuals with higher education had higher vaccine uptake in countries without free vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Quantification of associations between social factors and lower vaccine uptake, and notably living alone (an overlooked factor in vaccination programmes), should enable health professionals target specific social groups to tackle vaccine-related inequalities.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of vaccination against herpes zoster in England and Wales.

A live-attenuated vaccine against herpes zoster (HZ) has been approved for use, on the basis of a large-scale clinical trial that suggests that the vaccine is safe and efficacious. This study uses a Markov cohort model to estimate whether routine vaccination of the elderly (60+) would be cost-effective, when compared with other uses of health care resources. Vaccine efficacy parameters are estimated by fitting a model to clinical trial data. Estimates of QALY losses due to acute HZ and post-herpetic neuralgia were derived by fitting models to data on the duration of pain by severity and the QoL detriment associated with different severity categories, as reported in a number of different studies. Other parameters (such as cost and incidence estimates) were based on the literature, or UK data sources. The results suggest that vaccination of 65 year olds is likely to be cost-effective (base-case ICER=pound20,400 per QALY gained). If the vaccine does offer additional protection against either the severity of disease or the likelihood of developing PHN (as suggested by the clinical trial), then vaccination of all elderly age groups is highly likely to be deemed cost-effective. Vaccination at either 65 or 70 years (depending on assumptions of the vaccine action) is most cost-effective. Including a booster dose at a later age is unlikely to be cost-effective.