Comparison of the ADNEX and ROMA risk prediction models for the diagnosis of ovarian cancer: a multicentre external validation in patients who underwent surgery.

BACKGROUND: Several diagnostic prediction models to help clinicians discriminate between benign and malignant adnexal masses are available. This study is a head-to-head comparison of the performance of the Assessment of Different NEoplasias in the adneXa (ADNEX) model with that of the Risk of Ovarian Malignancy Algorithm (ROMA). METHODS: This is a retrospective study based on prospectively included consecutive women with an adnexal tumour scheduled for surgery at five oncology centres and one non-oncology centre in four countries between 2015 and 2019. The reference standard was histology. Model performance for ADNEX and ROMA was evaluated regarding discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility. RESULTS: The primary analysis included 894 patients, of whom 434 (49%) had a malignant tumour. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.92 (95% CI 0.88-0.95) for ADNEX with CA125, 0.90 (0.84-0.94) for ADNEX without CA125, and 0.85 (0.80-0.89) for ROMA. ROMA, and to a lesser extent ADNEX, underestimated the risk of malignancy. Clinical utility was highest for ADNEX. ROMA had no clinical utility at decision thresholds <27%. CONCLUSIONS: ADNEX had better ability to discriminate between benign and malignant adnexal tumours and higher clinical utility than ROMA. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT01698632 and NCT02847832.

Multiclass risk models for ovarian malignancy: an illustration of prediction uncertainty due to the choice of algorithm.

BACKGROUND: Assessing malignancy risk is important to choose appropriate management of ovarian tumors. We compared six algorithms to estimate the probabilities that an ovarian tumor is benign, borderline malignant, stage I primary invasive, stage II-IV primary invasive, or secondary metastatic. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used 5909 patients recruited from 1999 to 2012 for model development, and 3199 patients recruited from 2012 to 2015 for model validation. Patients were recruited at oncology referral or general centers and underwent an ultrasound examination and surgery ≤ 120 days later. We developed models using standard multinomial logistic regression (MLR), Ridge MLR, random forest (RF), XGBoost, neural networks (NN), and support vector machines (SVM). We used nine clinical and ultrasound predictors but developed models with or without CA125. RESULTS: Most tumors were benign (3980 in development and 1688 in validation data), secondary metastatic tumors were least common (246 and 172). The c-statistic (AUROC) to discriminate benign from any type of malignant tumor ranged from 0.89 to 0.92 for models with CA125, from 0.89 to 0.91 for models without. The multiclass c-statistic ranged from 0.41 (SVM) to 0.55 (XGBoost) for models with CA125, and from 0.42 (SVM) to 0.51 (standard MLR) for models without. Multiclass calibration was best for RF and XGBoost. Estimated probabilities for a benign tumor in the same patient often differed by more than 0.2 (20% points) depending on the model. Net Benefit for diagnosing malignancy was similar for algorithms at the commonly used 10% risk threshold, but was slightly higher for RF at higher thresholds. Comparing models, between 3% (XGBoost vs. NN, with CA125) and 30% (NN vs. SVM, without CA125) of patients fell on opposite sides of the 10% threshold. CONCLUSION: Although several models had similarly good performance, individual probability estimates varied substantially.

Effect of the e-health supported INTER-ACT lifestyle intervention on postpartum weight retention and body composition, and associations with lifestyle behavior: A randomized controlled trial.

We investigated whether a postpartum lifestyle intervention reduced postpartum weight retention (PPWR) and improved body composition, and whether improved lifestyle was associated with less PPWR and improved body composition. A total of 1075 women with excessive gestational weight gain were randomized into the intervention (N = 551) or control (N = 524) group. A completion rate of 76% was reached. Anthropometrics and lifestyle data were collected at 6 weeks and 6 months postpartum. The e-health supported intervention consisted of 4 face-to-face coaching's, focusing on nutrition, exercise and mental wellbeing and using motivational interviewing and behavior change techniques. In the intervention group we observed; larger decrease in weight in women who reduced their energy intake (mean ± SD: 3.1 ± 4.2 kg vs. 2.2 ± 3.8 kg, P = 0.05) and decreased uncontrolled eating (3.5 ± 4.2 kg vs. 1.9 ± 3.7 kg, P ≤0.001) by the end of the intervention; larger decrease in fat percentage in women who reduced energy intake (2.3% ± 2.9 vs. 1.4% ± 2.7, P = 0.01), enhanced restrained eating (2.2% ± 3 vs. 1.4% ± 2.6, P = 0.02) and decreased uncontrolled eating (2.3% ± 2.9 vs. 1.5% ± 2.7, P = 0.01) and larger decrease in waist circumference in women who reduced energy intake (4.6 cm ± 4.8 vs. 3.3 cm ± 4.7, P = 0.01), enhanced restrained eating (4.5 cm ± 4.8 vs. 3.4 cm ± 4.8, P = 0.05) and decreased uncontrolled eating (4.7 cm ± 4.8 vs. 3.3 cm ± 4.8, P = 0.006), compared to those who did not. Improved energy intake, restrained eating and uncontrolled eating behavior were associated with more favorable outcomes in weight and body composition. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier:NCT02989142.

Risk of complications in patients with conservatively managed ovarian tumours (IOTA5): a 2-year interim analysis of a multicentre, prospective, cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian tumours are usually surgically removed because of the presumed risk of complications. Few large prospective studies on long-term follow-up of adnexal masses exist. We aimed to estimate the cumulative incidence of cyst complications and malignancy during the first 2 years of follow-up after adnexal masses have been classified as benign by use of ultrasonography. METHODS: In the international, prospective, cohort International Ovarian Tumor Analysis Phase 5 (IOTA5) study, patients aged 18 years or older with at least one adnexal mass who had been selected for surgery or conservative management after ultrasound assessment were recruited consecutively from 36 cancer and non-cancer centres in 14 countries. Follow-up of patients managed conservatively is ongoing at present. In this 2-year interim analysis, we analysed patients who were selected for conservative management of an adnexal mass judged to be benign on ultrasound on the basis of subjective assessment of ultrasound images. Conservative management included ultrasound and clinical follow-up at intervals of 3 months and 6 months, and then every 12 months thereafter. The main outcomes of this 2-year interim analysis were cumulative incidence of spontaneous resolution of the mass, torsion or cyst rupture, or borderline or invasive malignancy confirmed surgically in patients with a newly diagnosed adnexal mass. IOTA5 is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01698632, and the central Ethics Committee and the Belgian Federal Agency for Medicines and Health Products, number S51375/B32220095331, and is ongoing. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2012, and March 1, 2015, 8519 patients were recruited to IOTA5. 3144 (37%) patients selected for conservative management were eligible for inclusion in our analysis, of whom 221 (7%) had no follow-up data and 336 (11%) were operated on before a planned follow-up scan was done. Of 2587 (82%) patients with follow-up data, 668 (26%) had a mass that was already in follow-up at recruitment, and 1919 (74%) presented with a new mass at recruitment (ie, not already in follow-up in the centre before recruitment). Median follow-up of patients with new masses was 27 months (IQR 14-38). The cumulative incidence of spontaneous resolution within 2 years of follow-up among those with a new mass at recruitment (n=1919) was 20·2% (95% CI 18·4-22·1), and of finding invasive malignancy at surgery was 0·4% (95% CI 0·1-0·6), 0·3% (<0·1-0·5) for a borderline tumour, 0·4% (0·1-0·7) for torsion, and 0·2% (<0·1-0·4) for cyst rupture. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that the risk of malignancy and acute complications is low if adnexal masses with benign ultrasound morphology are managed conservatively, which could be of value when counselling patients, and supports conservative management of adnexal masses classified as benign by use of ultrasound. FUNDING: Research Foundation Flanders, KU Leuven, Swedish Research Council.

Body weight, body composition and energy balance related behaviour during the transition to parenthood: study protocol of a multi-centre observational follow-up study (TRANSPARENTS).

BACKGROUND: The transition to parenthood is a cornerstone event for both parents, potentially leading to relevant changes in lifestyle and behaviour. In women, the metabolic changes during and after pregnancy and the deleterious effects of excessive gestational weight gain and postpartum weight retention have been extensively described. However, there is no full understanding about which specific energy balance related behaviours (EBRB) contribute to unfavourable weight gain and weight retention. Furthermore, information on how transition to parenthood affects men is lacking. Therefore, this study aims to investigate changes in body weight, body composition and EBRB in couples transitioning to parenthood. METHODS: TRANSPARENTS is a multi-centre observational follow-up study that focuses on body weight, body composition and EBRB during the transition to parenthood. Couples (women and men) will be recruited during the first trimester of their first pregnancy. Study visits will occur at four occasions (12 weeks of pregnancy, 6 weeks postpartum, 6 months postpartum and 12 months postpartum). Anthropometrics of the parents and new-borns will be assessed including body weight, height/length, body composition (using bio-electrical impedance analysis and measurement of four skinfold thicknesses (biceps, triceps, subscapular and supraspinal/suprailiac)) and waist and hip circumference. Dietary intake, physical activity, sedentary behaviour, smoking habits, sleeping pattern, fatigue, diet and exercise related partner support, mental health, breastfeeding, contraception use, and socio-demographics will be assessed using a questionnaire. In addition, accelerometry will be used to assess physical activity and sedentary behaviour objectively. Also data from women's medical record, such as pre-pregnancy weight and pregnancy outcomes, will be included. Multilevel modelling will be used to evaluate maternal and paternal changes in body weight, body composition and EBRB during and after pregnancy (primary outcomes). Multiple linear regression analyses will be performed to identify predictors of changes in body weight, body composition and EBRB. All analyses will be adjusted for possible confounders. DISCUSSION: TRANSPARENTS is a unique project identifying vulnerable parents and (un)favourable changes in EBRB throughout this potentially critical life period. Provided insights will facilitate the development of effective intervention strategies to help couples towards a healthy transition to parenthood. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT03454958. Registered March 2018.

Age-related differences in the sonographic characteristics of endometriomas.

STUDY QUESTION: Do sonographic characteristics of ovarian endometriomas vary with age in premenopausal women? SUMMARY ANSWER: With increasing age, multilocular cysts and cysts with papillations and other solid components become more common whereas ground glass echogenicity of cyst fluid becomes less common. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Expectant or medical management of women with endometriomas is now accepted. Therefore, the accuracy of non-invasive diagnosis of these cysts is pivotal. A clinically relevant question is whether the sonographic characteristics of ovarian endometriomas are the same irrespective of the age of the woman. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This is a secondary analysis of cross-sectional data in the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) database. The database contains clinical and ultrasound information collected pre-operatively between 1999 and 2012 from 5914 patients with adnexal masses in 24 ultrasound centres in 10 countries. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: There were 1005 histologically confirmed endometriomas in adult premenopausal patients found in the database and these were used in our analysis. The following ultrasound variables (defined using IOTA terminology) were used to describe the ultrasound appearance of the endometriomas: tender mass at ultrasound, largest diameter of lesion, tumour type (unilocular, unilocular-solid, multilocular, multilocular-solid, solid), echogenicity of cyst content, presence of papillations, number of papillations, height (mm) of largest papillation, presence and proportion of solid tissue and number of cyst locules, as well as vascularity in papillations and colour content of the tumour scan (colour score) on colour or power Doppler ultrasounds. Results are reported as median difference or odds ratio (OR) per 10 years increase in age. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Maximal lesion diameter did not vary substantially with age (+1.3 mm difference per 10 years increase in age, 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.4 to 4.0). Tender mass at scan was less common in the older the woman (OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.63-0.89), as were unilocular cysts relative to multilocular cysts (OR 0.70, 95% CI 0.57-0.85) and to lesions with solid components (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.48-0.77), and ground glass echogenicity relative to homogeneous low-level echogenicity (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.58-0.94) and other types of echogenicity of cyst contents (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.50-0.81). Papillations were more common the older the woman (OR 1.65, 95% CI 1.24-2.21), but their height and vascularization showed no clear relation to age. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: It is a limitation that we have little clinical information on the women included, e.g. previous surgery or medical treatment for endometriosis. It is important to emphasize that we do not know the age of the endometrioma itself and that our study is not longitudinal and so does not describe changes in endometriomas over time. The differences in the ultrasound appearance of endometriomas between women of different ages might be explained by previous surgery or medical treatment and might not be an effect of age per se. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Awareness of physicians that the ultrasound appearance of endometriomas differs between women of different ages may facilitate a correct diagnosis of endometrioma. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: This study was supported in part by the Regione Autonoma della Sardegna (project code CPR-24750). B.V.C., A.C. and D.T. are supported by the Fund for Scientific Research Flanders, Belgium (FWO). The authors declare that there is no conflict of interest.

Predicting the risk of malignancy in adnexal masses based on the Simple Rules from the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis group.

BACKGROUND: Accurate methods to preoperatively characterize adnexal tumors are pivotal for optimal patient management. A recent metaanalysis concluded that the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis algorithms such as the Simple Rules are the best approaches to preoperatively classify adnexal masses as benign or malignant. OBJECTIVE: We sought to develop and validate a model to predict the risk of malignancy in adnexal masses using the ultrasound features in the Simple Rules. STUDY DESIGN: This was an international cross-sectional cohort study involving 22 oncology centers, referral centers for ultrasonography, and general hospitals. We included consecutive patients with an adnexal tumor who underwent a standardized transvaginal ultrasound examination and were selected for surgery. Data on 5020 patients were recorded in 3 phases from 2002 through 2012. The 5 Simple Rules features indicative of a benign tumor (B-features) and the 5 features indicative of malignancy (M-features) are based on the presence of ascites, tumor morphology, and degree of vascularity at ultrasonography. Gold standard was the histopathologic diagnosis of the adnexal mass (pathologist blinded to ultrasound findings). Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the risk of malignancy based on the 10 ultrasound features and type of center. The diagnostic performance was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio (LR+), negative likelihood ratio (LR-), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and calibration curves. RESULTS: Data on 4848 patients were analyzed. The malignancy rate was 43% (1402/3263) in oncology centers and 17% (263/1585) in other centers. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve on validation data was very similar in oncology centers (0.917; 95% confidence interval, 0.901-0.931) and other centers (0.916; 95% confidence interval, 0.873-0.945). Risk estimates showed good calibration. In all, 23% of patients in the validation data set had a very low estimated risk (<1%) and 48% had a high estimated risk (≥30%). For the 1% risk cutoff, sensitivity was 99.7%, specificity 33.7%, LR+ 1.5, LR- 0.010, PPV 44.8%, and NPV 98.9%. For the 30% risk cutoff, sensitivity was 89.0%, specificity 84.7%, LR+ 5.8, LR- 0.13, PPV 75.4%, and NPV 93.9%. CONCLUSION: Quantification of the risk of malignancy based on the Simple Rules has good diagnostic performance both in oncology centers and other centers. A simple classification based on these risk estimates may form the basis of a clinical management system. Patients with a high risk may benefit from surgery by a gynecological oncologist, while patients with a lower risk may be managed locally.

Outcome of Epithelial Ovarian Cancer: Time for Strategy Trials to Resolve the Problem of Optimal Timing of Surgery.

INTRODUCTION: The standard treatment of ovarian cancer is the combination of debulking surgery and chemotherapy. There is an ongoing discussion on which treatment is best: primary debulking surgery (PDS) or neoadjuvant chemotherapy with interval debulking (NACT-IDS). Even a large randomized trial has not settled this issue. We examined whether comparing a specified treatment protocol would not be a more logical approach to answer this type of discussions. METHODS: A retrospective study of 142 consecutively treated patients according to a fixed protocol between 2000 and 2012 was conducted. Disease-free survival and overall survival were calculated by univariate and multivariate analyses for the whole group and for advanced stages separately. Specific differences between PDS and NACT-IDS were studied. Comparison of results from large databases was made. RESULTS: Disease-free survival and overall 5-year survival for the whole group were 35% and 50%. For the advanced stages, disease-free survival and overall 5-year survival were 14% and 36%, with a median disease-free and overall survival of 16 and 44 months. Of the 98 women with advanced ovarian carcinoma, 54% of operable patients underwent PDS and 44% underwent NACT-IDS. More patients in the PDS group were optimally (<1 cm) debulked: 80% vs 71%. There was no significant difference in survival between PDS or NACT-IDS. Optimally debulked patients had a significant better overall survival in multivariate analysis with a hazard ratio of 2.1. DISCUSSION: Outcome of treatment according to a fixed protocol with a mixture of PDS and NACT-IDS was similar to results from large databases. We hypothesize that comparison of a specific strategy may yield more useful results than awaiting the perfect randomized trial.

The impact of self-monitoring physical and mental health via an mHealth application on postpartum weight retention: Data from the INTER-ACT RCT.

Background: Postpartum weight retention (PPWR) has many health risks. Digital self-monitoring of weight can potentially make postpartum weight management easier. We aim to test to what extent the self-monitoring of weight, steps and mental health through an mHealth application increases postpartum weight loss and reduces the odds of substantial PPWR (≥5 kg). Methods: Participants were mothers in the intervention arm of the INTER-ACT multicenter randomized controlled trial (RCT), an inter-pregnancy lifestyle intervention among mothers with excessive gestational weight gain. Participants (n=288) had access to an mHealth application to log their weight, steps and mental health between 6 weeks and 6 months postpartum. A linear multiple regression model and a logistic regression model were run to test to what extent self-monitoring via the app increases postpartum weight loss and reduces the risk of substantial PPWR. Results: Women who logged their weight more often lost more weight (B=0.03, ß=0.26, CIB =[0.01,0.05], P<0.01), and had reduced odds of substantive PPWR (OR=0.99, CIOR =[0.98, 0.999], P<.05). Mental health logging reduced the odds of substantive PPWR (OR=0.98, CIOR =[0.97, 1.00], P<0.05), but was unrelated to the amount of weight loss. Steps logging was unrelated to either weight loss or substantive PPWR. Conclusion: Mothers with excessive gestational weight gain can benefit from app-based lifestyle interventions to reduce PPWR by self-monitoring their weight. More attention to mental health in PPWR interventions is needed.

Study protocol for two randomised controlled trials evaluating the effects of Cerclage in the reduction of extreme preterm birth and perinatal mortality in twin pregnancies with a short cervix or dilatation: the TWIN Cerclage studies.

INTRODUCTION: Twin pregnancies have a high risk of extreme preterm birth (PTB) at less than 28 weeks of gestation, which is associated with increased risk of neonatal morbidity and mortality. Currently there is a lack of effective treatments for women with a twin pregnancy and a short cervix or cervical dilatation. A possible effective surgical method to reduce extreme PTB in twin pregnancies with an asymptomatic short cervix or dilatation at midpregnancy is the placement of a vaginal cerclage. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We designed two multicentre randomised trials involving eight hospitals in the Netherlands (sites in other countries may be added at a later date). Women older than 16 years with a twin pregnancy at <24 weeks of gestation and an asymptomatic short cervix of ≤25 mm or cervical dilatation will be randomly allocated (1:1) to both trials on vaginal cerclage and standard treatment according to the current Dutch Society of Obstetrics and Gynaecology guideline (no cerclage). Permuted blocks sized 2 and 4 will be used to minimise the risk of disbalance. The primary outcome measure is PTB of <28 weeks. Analyses will be by intention to treat. The first trial is to demonstrate a risk reduction from 25% to 10% in the short cervix group, for which 194 patients need to be recruited. The second trial is to demonstrate a risk reduction from 80% to 35% in the dilatation group and will recruit 44 women. A cost-effectiveness analysis will be performed from a societal perspective. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study has been approved by the Research Ethics Committees in the Netherlands on 3/30/2023. Participants will be required to sign an informed consent form. The results will be presented at conferences and published in a peer-reviewed journal. Participants will be informed about the results. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05968794.

A comparison between an ultrasound based prediction model (LR2) and the risk of ovarian malignancy algorithm (ROMA) to assess the risk of malignancy in women with an adnexal mass.

OBJECTIVE: The identification of novel biomarkers led to the development of the ROMA algorithm incorporating both HE4 and CA125 to predict malignancy in women with a pelvic mass. An ultrasound based prediction model (LR2) developed by the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) study offers better diagnostic performance than CA125 alone. In this study we compared the diagnostic accuracy between LR2 and ROMA. METHODS: This study included women with a pelvic mass scheduled for surgery and enrolled in a previous prospective diagnostic accuracy study. Experienced ultrasound examiners, general gynecologists and trainees supervised by one of the experts performed the preoperative transvaginal ultrasound examinations. Serum biomarkers were taken prior to surgery. Accuracy of LR2 and ROMA was estimated at completion of this study and did not form part of the decision making process. Final outcome was histology of removed tissues and surgical stage if relevant. RESULTS: In total 360 women were evaluated. 216 women had benign disease and 144 a malignancy. Overall test performance of LR2 (AUC 0.952) with 94% sensitivity and 82% specificity was significantly better than ROMA (AUC 0.893) with 84% sensitivity and 80% specificity. Difference in AUC was 0.059 (95% CI: 0.026-0.091; P-value 0.0004). Similar results were obtained when stratified for menopausal status. CONCLUSION: LR2 shows a better diagnostic performance than ROMA for the characterization of a pelvic mass in both pre- and postmenopausal women. These findings suggest that HE4 and CA125 may not play an important role in the diagnosis of ovarian cancer if good quality ultrasonography is available.

Fluorescence guidance during robotic resection of bladder wall endometriosis: case report and technique.

The application of indocyanine green (ICG) has recently been reported to aid in the resection of endometriosis in the bladder wall and/or involving the ureters. A symptomatic 41-year-old patient with dysmenorrhea and pollakisuria was referred to our tertiary center. Imaging revealed a 1.5-2 cm intramural endometriotic nodule in the posterior bladder wall. She was planned for robotic resection of the endometriotic nodule, under ICG guidance, together with a hysterectomy. After placement of double-J ureteral stents and clamping the bladder, perforation of the bladder mucosa could be avoided whilst performing a circumferential resection of the nodule. By clamping the bladder catheter after instillation of ICG, both the bladder wall thickness and ureters could be visualized with near-infrared imaging during robotic resection of the endometriotic nodule and hysterectomy. With the surgical approach described here, endometriotic nodules/tissue can be removed precisely with enlarged vision at the robot console, safely, and completely without damaging adjacent tissues.

Mental Health during the Interpregnancy Period and the Association with Pre-Pregnancy Body Mass Index and Body Composition: Data from the INTER-ACT Randomized Controlled Trial.

Mental health problems and obesity are two common complications during pregnancy and postpartum. The preconception period is considered an appropriate period for prevention. Therefore, insights into interpregnancy mental health and the impact on weight and body composition are of interest to developing effective weight management strategies. The primary aim of this study is to assess the difference in women's mental health during the interpregnancy period and the association with pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and body composition. The secondary aim is to study whether this association is affected by socio-demographic factors, interpregnancy interval and sleep. The study is a secondary analysis of the INTER-ACT e-health-supported lifestyle trial. Women were eligible if they had a subsequent pregnancy and mental health measurements at 6 weeks after childbirth and at the start of the next pregnancy (n = 276). We used univariate analyses to assess differences in mental health and performed regression analysis to assess their association with pre-pregnancy BMI and body composition at the start of the next pregnancy. Our results show a statistically significant increase in anxiety and depressive symptoms between 6 weeks after childbirth and the start of the next pregnancy (sSTAI-6 ≥ 40: +13%, p =≤ 0.001; GMDS ≥ 13: +9%, p = 0.01). Of the women who were not anxious at 6 weeks after childbirth (sSTAI < 40), more than one-third (39%) developed anxiety at the start of the next pregnancy (p =≤ 0.001). Regression analysis showed that sense of coherence (SOC-13) at the start of the next pregnancy was independently associated with women's pre-pregnancy BMI and fat percentage. We believe that the development of preconception lifestyle interventions that focus on both weight reduction and support in understanding, managing and giving meaning to stressful events (sense of coherence) may be of added value in optimizing women's preconception health.

Preterm birth during the COVID-19 pandemic: more, less, or just the same?

OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and its mitigation measures have been associated with changes in preterm birth (PTB) incidences. The objective of this paper is to summarize and comment on the literature on COVID-19 and PTB and to compare PTB incidence between 2019 (pre-COVID-19) and 2020 (COVID-19) in three Belgian tertiary care hospitals. METHODS: A non-systematic review on COVID-19 and PTB was performed, and literature was summarized in a table. Preterm birth rates at Ghent University Hospital, Ziekenhuis Oost-Limburg, and University Hospital Leuven in 2019 and 2020 were compared. Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used to compare PTB rates between 2019 and 2020, and Kaplan Meier survival analysis was used to compare pregnancy duration. The mean outcome measure was PTB incidence in 2020 (COVID-19) compared with PTB incidence in 2019 (pre-COVID-19). RESULTS: Some (parts of) countries report decreases in PTB rates, others report no differences in incidence, and a minority of countries report an increased incidence of PTB. Almost all studies only consider live-births. In three tertiary care hospitals in Flanders, there were no differences in PTB rates before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. CONCLUSION: The impact of the (mitigation measures during the) COVID-19 pandemic on PTB incidence is unclear and difficult to explore. To enable a correct interpretation, all conceptions before and during the pandemic should be taken into consideration, as well as all births, still or alive.

External Validation of the Ovarian-Adnexal Reporting and Data System (O-RADS) Lexicon and the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis 2-Step Strategy to Stratify Ovarian Tumors Into O-RADS Risk Groups.

Importance: Correct diagnosis of ovarian cancer results in better prognosis. Adnexal lesions can be stratified into the Ovarian-Adnexal Reporting and Data System (O-RADS) risk of malignancy categories with either the O-RADS lexicon, proposed by the American College of Radiology, or the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) 2-step strategy. Objective: To investigate the diagnostic performance of the O-RADS lexicon and the IOTA 2-step strategy. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective external diagnostic validation study based on interim data of IOTA5, a prospective international multicenter cohort study, in 36 oncology referral centers or other types of centers. A total of 8519 consecutive adult patients presenting with an adnexal mass between January 1, 2012, and March 1, 2015, and treated either with surgery or conservatively were included in this diagnostic study. Twenty-five patients were excluded for withdrawal of consent, 2777 were excluded from 19 centers that did not meet predefined data quality criteria, and 812 were excluded because they were already in follow-up at recruitment. The analysis included 4905 patients with a newly detected adnexal mass in 17 centers that met predefined data quality criteria. Data were analyzed from January 31 to March 1, 2022. Exposures: Stratification into O-RADS categories (malignancy risk <1%, 1% to <10%, 10% to <50%, and ≥50%). For the IOTA 2-step strategy, the stratification is based on the individual risk of malignancy calculated with the IOTA 2-step strategy. Main Outcomes and Measures: Observed prevalence of malignancy in each O-RADS risk category, as well as sensitivity and specificity. The reference standard was the status of the tumor at inclusion, determined by histology or clinical and ultrasonographic follow-up for 1 year. Multiple imputation was used for uncertain outcomes owing to inconclusive follow-up information. Results: Median age of the 4905 patients was 48 years (IQR, 36-62 years). Data on race and ethnicity were not collected. A total of 3441 tumors (70%) were benign, 978 (20%) were malignant, and 486 (10%) had uncertain classification. Using the O-RADS lexicon resulted in 1.1% (24 of 2196) observed prevalence of malignancy in O-RADS 2, 4% (34 of 857) in O-RADS 3, 27% (246 of 904) in O-RADS 4, and 78% (732 of 939) in O-RADS 5; the corresponding results for the IOTA 2-step strategy were 0.9% (18 of 1984), 4% (58 of 1304), 30% (206 of 690), and 82% (756 of 927). At the 10% risk threshold (O-RADS 4-5), the O-RADS lexicon had 92% sensitivity (95% CI, 87%-96%) and 80% specificity (95% CI, 74%-85%), and the IOTA 2-step strategy had 91% sensitivity (95% CI, 84%-95%) and 85% specificity (95% CI, 80%-88%). Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this external diagnostic validation study suggest that both the O-RADS lexicon and the IOTA 2-step strategy can be used to stratify patients into risk groups. However, the observed malignancy rate in O-RADS 2 was not clearly below 1%.

Peripherally-driven myeloid NFkB and IFN/ISG responses predict malignancy risk, survival, and immunotherapy regime in ovarian cancer.

BACKGROUND: Tumors can influence peripheral immune macroenvironment, thereby creating opportunities for non-invasive serum/plasma immunobiomarkers for immunostratification and immunotherapy designing. However, current approaches for immunobiomarkers' detection are largely quantitative, which is unreliable for assessing functional peripheral immunodynamics of patients with cancer. Hence, we aimed to design a functional biomarker modality for capturing peripheral immune signaling in patients with cancer for reliable immunostratification. METHODS: We used a data-driven in silico framework, integrating existing tumor/blood bulk-RNAseq or single-cell (sc)RNAseq datasets of patients with cancer, to inform the design of an innovative serum-screening modality, that is, serum-functional immunodynamic status (sFIS) assay. Next, we pursued proof-of-concept analyses via multiparametric serum profiling of patients with ovarian cancer (OV) with sFIS assay combined with Luminex (cytokines/soluble immune checkpoints), CA125-antigen detection, and whole-blood immune cell counts. Here, sFIS assay's ability to determine survival benefit or malignancy risk was validated in a discovery (n=32) and/or validation (n=699) patient cohorts. Lastly, we used an orthotopic murine metastatic OV model, with anti-OV therapy selection via in silico drug-target screening and murine serum screening via sFIS assay, to assess suitable in vivo immunotherapy options. RESULTS: In silico data-driven framework predicted that peripheral immunodynamics of patients with cancer might be best captured via analyzing myeloid nuclear factor kappa-light-chain enhancer of activated B cells (NFκB) signaling and interferon-stimulated genes' (ISG) responses. This helped in conceptualization of an 'in sitro' (in vitro+in situ) sFIS assay, where human myeloid cells were exposed to patients' serum in vitro, to assess serum-induced (si)-NFκB or interferon (IFN)/ISG responses (as active signaling reporter activity) within them, thereby 'mimicking' patients' in situ immunodynamic status. Multiparametric serum profiling of patients with OV established that sFIS assay can: decode peripheral immunology (by indicating higher enrichment of si-NFκB over si-IFN/ISG responses), estimate survival trends (si-NFκB or si-IFN/ISG responses associating with negative or positive prognosis, respectively), and coestimate malignancy risk (relative to benign/borderline ovarian lesions). Biologically, we documented dominance of pro-tumorigenic, myeloid si-NFκB responseHIGHsi-IFN/ISG responseLOW inflammation in periphery of patients with OV. Finally, in an orthotopic murine metastatic OV model, sFIS assay predicted the higher capacity of chemo-immunotherapy (paclitaxel-carboplatin plus anti-TNF antibody combination) in achieving a pro-immunogenic peripheral milieu (si-IFN/ISG responseHIGHsi-NFκB responseLOW), which aligned with high antitumor efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: We established sFIS assay as a novel biomarker resource for serum screening in patients with OV to evaluate peripheral immunodynamics, patient survival trends and malignancy risk, and to design preclinical chemo-immunotherapy strategies.

Polytomous diagnosis of ovarian tumors as benign, borderline, primary invasive or metastatic: development and validation of standard and kernel-based risk prediction models.

BACKGROUND: Hitherto, risk prediction models for preoperative ultrasound-based diagnosis of ovarian tumors were dichotomous (benign versus malignant). We develop and validate polytomous models (models that predict more than two events) to diagnose ovarian tumors as benign, borderline, primary invasive or metastatic invasive. The main focus is on how different types of models perform and compare. METHODS: A multi-center dataset containing 1066 women was used for model development and internal validation, whilst another multi-center dataset of 1938 women was used for temporal and external validation. Models were based on standard logistic regression and on penalized kernel-based algorithms (least squares support vector machines and kernel logistic regression). We used true polytomous models as well as combinations of dichotomous models based on the 'pairwise coupling' technique to produce polytomous risk estimates. Careful variable selection was performed, based largely on cross-validated c-index estimates. Model performance was assessed with the dichotomous c-index (i.e. the area under the ROC curve) and a polytomous extension, and with calibration graphs. RESULTS: For all models, between 9 and 11 predictors were selected. Internal validation was successful with polytomous c-indexes between 0.64 and 0.69. For the best model dichotomous c-indexes were between 0.73 (primary invasive vs metastatic) and 0.96 (borderline vs metastatic). On temporal and external validation, overall discrimination performance was good with polytomous c-indexes between 0.57 and 0.64. However, discrimination between primary and metastatic invasive tumors decreased to near random levels. Standard logistic regression performed well in comparison with advanced algorithms, and combining dichotomous models performed well in comparison with true polytomous models. The best model was a combination of dichotomous logistic regression models. This model is available online. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed models that successfully discriminate between benign, borderline, and invasive ovarian tumors. Methodologically, the combination of dichotomous models was an interesting approach to tackle the polytomous problem. Standard logistic regression models were not outperformed by regularized kernel-based alternatives, a finding to which the careful variable selection procedure will have contributed. The random discrimination between primary and metastatic invasive tumors on temporal/external validation demonstrated once more the necessity of validation studies.

Prospective internal validation of mathematical models to predict malignancy in adnexal masses: results from the international ovarian tumor analysis study.

PURPOSE: To prospectively test the mathematical models for calculation of the risk of malignancy in adnexal masses that were developed on the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) phase 1 data set on a new data set and to compare their performance with that of pattern recognition, our standard method. METHODS: Three IOTA centers included 507 new patients who all underwent a transvaginal ultrasound using the standardized IOTA protocol. The outcome measure was the histologic classification of excised tissue. The diagnostic performance of 11 mathematical models that had been developed on the phase 1 data set and of pattern recognition was expressed as area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and as sensitivity and specificity when using the cutoffs recommended in the studies where the models had been created. For pattern recognition, an AUC was made based on level of diagnostic confidence. RESULTS: All IOTA models performed very well and quite similarly, with sensitivity and specificity ranging between 92% and 96% and 74% and 84%, respectively, and AUCs between 0.945 and 0.950. A least squares support vector machine with linear kernel and a logistic regression model had the largest AUCs. For pattern recognition, the AUC was 0.963, sensitivity was 90.2%, and specificity was 92.9%. CONCLUSION: This internal validation of mathematical models to estimate the malignancy risk in adnexal tumors shows that the IOTA models had a diagnostic performance similar to that in the original data set. Pattern recognition used by an expert sonologist remains the best method, although the difference in performance between the best mathematical model is not large.

Ultrasound experience substantially impacts on diagnostic performance and confidence when adnexal masses are classified using pattern recognition.

AIM: To determine how accurately and confidently examiners with different levels of ultrasound experience can classify adnexal masses as benign or malignant and suggest a specific histological diagnosis when evaluating ultrasound images using pattern recognition. METHODS: Ultrasound images of selected adnexal masses were evaluated by 3 expert sonologists, 2 senior and 4 junior trainees. They were instructed to classify the masses using pattern recognition as benign or malignant, to state the level of confidence with which this classification was made and to suggest a specific histological diagnosis. Sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR+ and LR-) with regard to malignancy were calculated. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of pattern recognition was calculated by using six levels of diagnostic confidence. RESULTS: 166 masses were examined, of which 42% were malignant. Sensitivity with regard to malignancy ranged from 80 to 86% for the experts, was 70 and 84% for the 2 senior trainees and ranged from 70 to 86% for the junior trainees. The specificity of the experts ranged from 79 to 91%, was 77 and 89% for the senior trainees and ranged from 59 to 83% for the junior trainees. The experts were uncertain about their diagnosis in 4-13% of the cases, the senior trainees in 15-20% and the junior trainees in 67-100% of the cases. The AUCs ranged from 0.861 to 0.922 for the experts, were 0.842 and 0.855 for the senior trainees, and ranged from 0.726 to 0.795 for the junior trainees. The experts suggested a correct specific histological diagnosis in 69-77% of the cases. All 6 trainees did so significantly less often (22-42% of the cases). CONCLUSION: Expert sonologists can accurately classify adnexal masses as benign or malignant and can successfully predict the specific histological diagnosis in many cases. Whilst less experienced operators perform reasonably well when predicting the benign or malignant nature of the mass, they do so with a very low level of diagnostic confidence and are unable to state the likely histology of a mass in most cases.

Validation of models to diagnose ovarian cancer in patients managed surgically or conservatively: multicentre cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of diagnostic prediction models for ovarian malignancy in all patients with an ovarian mass managed surgically or conservatively. DESIGN: Multicentre cohort study. SETTING: 36 oncology referral centres (tertiary centres with a specific gynaecological oncology unit) or other types of centre. PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive adult patients presenting with an adnexal mass between January 2012 and March 2015 and managed by surgery or follow-up. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Overall and centre specific discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of six prediction models for ovarian malignancy (risk of malignancy index (RMI), logistic regression model 2 (LR2), simple rules, simple rules risk model (SRRisk), assessment of different neoplasias in the adnexa (ADNEX) with or without CA125). ADNEX allows the risk of malignancy to be subdivided into risks of a borderline, stage I primary, stage II-IV primary, or secondary metastatic malignancy. The outcome was based on histology if patients underwent surgery, or on results of clinical and ultrasound follow-up at 12 (±2) months. Multiple imputation was used when outcome based on follow-up was uncertain. RESULTS: The primary analysis included 17 centres that met strict quality criteria for surgical and follow-up data (5717 of all 8519 patients). 812 patients (14%) had a mass that was already in follow-up at study recruitment, therefore 4905 patients were included in the statistical analysis. The outcome was benign in 3441 (70%) patients and malignant in 978 (20%). Uncertain outcomes (486, 10%) were most often explained by limited follow-up information. The overall area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was highest for ADNEX with CA125 (0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.92 to 0.96), ADNEX without CA125 (0.94, 0.91 to 0.95) and SRRisk (0.94, 0.91 to 0.95), and lowest for RMI (0.89, 0.85 to 0.92). Calibration varied among centres for all models, however the ADNEX models and SRRisk were the best calibrated. Calibration of the estimated risks for the tumour subtypes was good for ADNEX irrespective of whether or not CA125 was included as a predictor. Overall clinical utility (net benefit) was highest for the ADNEX models and SRRisk, and lowest for RMI. For patients who received at least one follow-up scan (n=1958), overall area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.66 to 0.84) for RMI to 0.89 (0.81 to 0.94) for ADNEX with CA125. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found the ADNEX models and SRRisk are the best models to distinguish between benign and malignant masses in all patients presenting with an adnexal mass, including those managed conservatively. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01698632.