An assessment of the effectiveness of a long-term ecosystem restoration project in a fynbos shrubland catchment in South Africa.

The long-term effectiveness of ecological restoration projects is seldom reported in the scientific literature. This paper reports on the outcomes of ecosystem restoration following the clearing of alien Pinus plantations and associated alien plant invasions over 13 years from an 8000 ha mountain catchment in the Western Cape Province, South Africa. We examined the goals, methods and costs of management, and the ecological outcomes in terms of reduced alien plant cover and native vegetation recovery. While the goals were not explicitly formulated at the outset, they were implicitly focussed on the conservation of water resources, the restoration of biodiversity, and the provision of employment. Initially, most (>90% of the area) was occupied by Pinus and Acacia invasions, mostly at low densities. The cost of control (initial clearing and up to 16 follow-up visits to remove emergent seedlings) amounted to almost ZAR 50 million (14 ZAR âˆ¼ 1US$). Although the cover of alien plants was greatly reduced, over 1000 ha still support dense or medium invasions (>25% cover), and the area occupied by scattered Pinus plants increased by over 3000 ha to >5700 ha. A reliance on passive restoration had not yet resulted in full recovery of the natural vegetation. The mean number of species, and total projected canopy cover on 50 m2 plots was lower in cleared than in comparable reference sites with pristine vegetation (21 vs 32 species/plot, and 94 vs 168% cover respectively). While the project is ongoing, we conclude that the entire area could revert to a more densely-invaded state in the event of a reduction of funding. Several changes to the management approach (including the integrated use of fire, a greater use of power tools, and active re-seeding of cleared areas with indigenous shrubs) would substantially increase the future effectiveness of the project and the sustainability of its outcomes.

Using counterfactuals to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of controlling biological invasions.

Prioritizing limited conservation funds for controlling biological invasions requires accurate estimates of the effectiveness of interventions to remove invasive species and their cost-effectiveness (cost per unit area or individual). Despite billions of dollars spent controlling biological invasions worldwide, it is unclear whether those efforts are effective, and cost-effective. The paucity of evidence results from the difficulty in measuring the effect of invasive species removal: a researcher must estimate the difference in outcomes (e.g. invasive species cover) between where the removal program intervened and what might have been observed if the program had not intervened. In the program evaluation literature, this is called a counterfactual analysis, which formally compares what actually happened and what would have happened in the absence of an intervention. When program implementation is not randomized, estimating counterfactual outcomes is especially difficult. We show how a thorough understanding of program implementation, combined with a matching empirical design can improve the way counterfactual outcomes are estimated in nonexperimental contexts. As a practical demonstration, we estimated the cost-effectiveness of South Africa's Working for Water program, arguably the world's most ambitious invasive species control program, in removing invasive alien trees from different land use types, across a large area in the Cape Floristic Region. We estimated that the proportion of the treatment area covered by invasive trees would have been 49% higher (5.5% instead of 2.7% of the grid cells occupied) had the program not intervened. Our estimates of cost per hectare to remove invasive species, however, are three to five times higher than the predictions made when the program was initiated. Had there been no control (counter-factual), invasive trees would have spread on untransformed land, but not on land parcels containing plantations or land transformed by agriculture or human settlements. This implies that the program might have prevented a larger area from being invaded if it had focused all of its clearing effort on untransformed land. Our results show that, with appropriate empirical designs, it is possible to better evaluate the impacts of invasive species removal and therefore to learn from past experiences.

Improving credibility and transparency of conservation impact evaluations through the partial identification approach.

The fundamental challenge of evaluating the impact of conservation interventions is that researchers must estimate the difference between the outcome after an intervention occurred and what the outcome would have been without it (counterfactual). Because the counterfactual is unobservable, researchers must make an untestable assumption that some units (e.g., organisms or sites) that were not exposed to the intervention can be used as a surrogate for the counterfactual (control). The conventional approach is to make a point estimate (i.e., single number along with a confidence interval) of impact, using, for example, regression. Point estimates provide powerful conclusions, but in nonexperimental contexts they depend on strong assumptions about the counterfactual that often lack transparency and credibility. An alternative approach, called partial identification (PI), is to first estimate what the counterfactual bounds would be if the weakest possible assumptions were made. Then, one narrows the bounds by using stronger but credible assumptions based on an understanding of why units were selected for the intervention and how they might respond to it. We applied this approach and compared it with conventional approaches by estimating the impact of a conservation program that removed invasive trees in part of the Cape Floristic Region. Even when we used our largest PI impact estimate, the program's control costs were 1.4 times higher than previously estimated. PI holds promise for applications in conservation science because it encourages researchers to better understand and account for treatment selection biases; can offer insights into the plausibility of conventional point-estimate approaches; could reduce the problem of advocacy in science; might be easier for stakeholders to agree on a bounded estimate than a point estimate where impacts are contentious; and requires only basic arithmetic skills.

The ongoing development of a pragmatic and adaptive fire management policy in a large African savanna protected area.

This paper describes recent changes to the fire management policy of the 1.9 million ha Kruger National Park in South Africa. It provides a real-life example of adaptive learning in an environment where understanding is incomplete, but where management nonetheless has to proceed. The previous policy called for the application of fire to meet burnt area targets that were set for administrative subdivisions, and that were assessed at the scale of the entire park. This was problematic because the park is large and heterogeneous, and because sound ecological motivations that could link burning prescriptions to ecological objectives were missing. The new policy divides the park into five fire management zones on the basis of differences in mean annual rainfall, historic fire return periods, and geology. In addition, it proposes fire management actions designed to achieve specified ecological objectives in each zone, and includes fire-regime related thresholds and associated ecological outcomes against which to assess the effectiveness of management. The new policy is an improvement over previous iterations, but several challenges remain. Most important among these would be to continually improve the understanding of the effects of fire, and to develop frameworks for assessing the impacts of fire together with other ecosystem drivers that interact strongly with fire to influence the attainment of ecological objectives.

Three centuries of managing introduced conifers in South Africa: Benefits, impacts, changing perceptions and conflict resolution.

Alien conifers, mainly pines, have been planted in South Africa for a range of purposes for over 300 years. Formal plantations cover 660,000 ha of the country, and invasive stands of varying density occur on a further 2.9 million ha. These trees have brought many benefits but have also caused unintended problems. The management of alien conifers has evolved in response to emerging problems such as excessive water use by plantations of conifers, changing values and markets, and the realities of a new ecological order brought about by invasive alien conifers. This paper reviews the history of conifer introductions to South Africa, the benefits and impacts with which they are associated, and the ongoing and evolving research that has been conducted to inform their management. The South African approach has included taking courageous steps to address the problem of highly invasive species that are also an important commercial crop. These interventions have not, however, had the desired effect of both retaining benefits from formal plantations while simultaneously reversing the trend of growing impacts associated with self-sown invasive stands. We suggest that different approaches need to be considered, including the systematic phasing out of commercial forestry in zones where it delivers low returns, and the introduction of more effective, focussed and integrated, region-specific approaches to the management of invasive stands of conifers. These steps would deliver much improved economic outcomes by protecting valuable ecosystem services, but will require political commitment to policies that could be unpopular in certain sectors of society.

Genetic insights into the globally invasive and taxonomically problematic tree genus Prosopis.

Accurate taxonomic identification of alien species is crucial to detect new incursions, prevent or reduce the arrival of new invaders and implement management options such as biological control. Globally, the taxonomy of non-native Prosopis species is problematic due to misidentification and extensive hybridization. We performed a genetic analysis on several Prosopis species, and their putative hybrids, including both native and non-native populations, with a special focus on Prosopis invasions in Eastern Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania). We aimed to clarify the taxonomic placement of non-native populations and to infer the introduction histories of Prosopis in Eastern Africa. DNA sequencing data from nuclear and chloroplast markers showed high homology (almost 100 %) between most species analysed. Analyses based on seven nuclear microsatellites confirmed weak population genetic structure among Prosopis species. Hybrids and polyploid individuals were recorded in both native and non-native populations. Invasive genotypes of Prosopis juliflora in Kenya and Ethiopia could have a similar native Mexican origin, while Tanzanian genotypes likely are from a different source. Native Peruvian Prosopis pallida genotypes showed high similarity with non-invasive genotypes from Kenya. Levels of introduced genetic diversity, relative to native populations, suggest that multiple introductions of P. juliflora and P. pallida occurred in Eastern Africa. Polyploidy may explain the successful invasion of P. juliflora in Eastern Africa. The polyploid P. juliflora was highly differentiated from the rest of the (diploid) species within the genus. The lack of genetic differentiation between most diploid species in their native ranges supports the notion that hybridization between allopatric species may occur frequently when they are co-introduced into non-native areas. For regulatory purposes, we propose to treat diploid Prosopis taxa from the Americas as a single taxonomic unit in non-native ranges.

Quantifying the social and economic benefits of the biological control of invasive alien plants in natural ecosystems.

Invasive alien plants reduce ecosystem service delivery, resulting in environmental, economic and social costs. Here we review the returns on investment from biological control of alien plants that invade natural ecosystems. Quantifying the economic benefits of biological control requires estimates of the reductions in ecosystem goods and services arising from invasion. It also requires post-release monitoring to assess whether biological control can restore them, and conversion of these estimates to monetary values, which has seldom been done. Past studies, mainly from Australia and South Africa, indicate that biological control delivers positive and substantial returns on investment, with benefit:cost ratios ranging from 8:1 to over 3000:1. Recent studies are rare, but they confirm that successful biological control delivers attractive returns on investment, which increase over time as the value of avoided impacts accumulates.

Vegetation responses to season of fire in an aseasonal, fire-prone fynbos shrubland.

Season of fire has marked effects on floristic composition in fire-prone Mediterranean-climate shrublands. In these winter-rainfall systems, summer-autumn fires lead to optimal recruitment of overstorey proteoid shrubs (non-sprouting, slow-maturing, serotinous Proteaceae) which are important to the conservation of floral diversity. We explored whether fire season has similar effects on early establishment of five proteoid species in the eastern coastal part of the Cape Floral Kingdom (South Africa) where rainfall occurs year-round and where weather conducive to fire and the actual incidence of fire are largely aseasonal. We surveyed recruitment success (ratio of post-fire recruits to pre-fire parents) of proteoids after fires in different seasons. We also planted proteoid seeds into exclosures, designed to prevent predation by small mammals and birds, in cleared (intended to simulate fire) fynbos shrublands at different sites in each of four seasons and monitored their germination and survival to one year post-planting (hereafter termed 'recruitment'). Factors (in decreasing order of importance) affecting recruitment success in the post-fire surveys were species, pre-fire parent density, post-fire age of the vegetation at the time of assessment, and fire season, whereas rainfall (for six months post-fire) and fire return interval (>7 years) had little effect. In the seed-planting experiment, germination occurred during the cooler months and mostly within two months of planting, except for summer-plantings, which took 2-3 months longer to germinate. Although recruitment success differed significantly among planting seasons, sites and species, significant interactions occurred among the experimental factors. In both the post-fire surveys and seed planting experiment, recruitment success in relation to fire- or planting season varied greatly within and among species and sites. Results of these two datasets were furthermore inconsistent, suggesting that proteoid recruitment responses are not related to the season of fire. Germination appeared less rainfall-dependent than in winter-rainfall shrublands, suggesting that summer drought-avoiding dormancy is limited and has less influence on variation in recruitment success among fire seasons. The varied response of proteoid recruitment to fire season (or its simulation) implies that burning does not have to be restricted to particular seasons in eastern coastal fynbos, affording more flexibility for fire management than in shrublands associated with winter rainfall.

Natural hazards in a changing world: a case for ecosystem-based management.

Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1:100 year flood event to a 1:80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1:100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events.