Monitoring resilience in bursts.

The possibility to anticipate critical transitions through detecting loss of resilience has attracted attention in many fields. Resilience indicators rely on the mathematical concept of critical slowing down, which means that a system recovers more slowly from external perturbations when it gets closer to tipping point. This decrease in recovery rate can be reflected in rising autocorrelation and variance in data. To test whether resilience is changing, resilience indicators are often calculated using a moving window in long, continuous time series of the system. However, for some systems, it may be more feasible to collect several high-resolution time series in short periods of time, i.e., in bursts. Resilience indicators can then be calculated to detect a change of resilience between such bursts. Here, we compare the performance of both methods using simulated data and showcase the possible use of bursts in a case study using mood data to anticipate depression in a patient. With the same number of data points, the burst approach outperformed the moving window method, suggesting that it is possible to downsample the continuous time series and still signal an upcoming transition. We suggest guidelines to design an optimal sampling strategy. Our results imply that using bursts of data instead of continuous time series may improve the capacity to detect changes in resilience. This method is promising for a variety of fields, such as human health, epidemiology, or ecology, where continuous monitoring can be costly or unfeasible.

Coral reefs in the Anthropocene.

Coral reefs support immense biodiversity and provide important ecosystem services to many millions of people. Yet reefs are degrading rapidly in response to numerous anthropogenic drivers. In the coming centuries, reefs will run the gauntlet of climate change, and rising temperatures will transform them into new configurations, unlike anything observed previously by humans. Returning reefs to past configurations is no longer an option. Instead, the global challenge is to steer reefs through the Anthropocene era in a way that maintains their biological functions. Successful navigation of this transition will require radical changes in the science, management and governance of coral reefs.

Quantifying resilience of humans and other animals.

All life requires the capacity to recover from challenges that are as inevitable as they are unpredictable. Understanding this resilience is essential for managing the health of humans and their livestock. It has long been difficult to quantify resilience directly, forcing practitioners to rely on indirect static indicators of health. However, measurements from wearable electronics and other sources now allow us to analyze the dynamics of physiology and behavior with unsurpassed resolution. The resulting flood of data coincides with the emergence of novel analytical tools for estimating resilience from the pattern of microrecoveries observed in natural time series. Such dynamic indicators of resilience may be used to monitor the risk of systemic failure across systems ranging from organs to entire organisms. These tools invite a fundamental rethinking of our approach to the adaptive management of health and resilience.

Foreseeing the future of mutualistic communities beyond collapse.

Changing conditions may lead to sudden shifts in the state of ecosystems when critical thresholds are passed. Some well-studied drivers of such transitions lead to predictable outcomes such as a turbid lake or a degraded landscape. Many ecosystems are, however, complex systems of many interacting species. While detecting upcoming transitions in such systems is challenging, predicting what comes after a critical transition is terra incognita altogether. The problem is that complex ecosystems may shift to many different, alternative states. Whether an impending transition has minor, positive or catastrophic effects is thus unclear. Some systems may, however, behave more predictably than others. The dynamics of mutualistic communities can be expected to be relatively simple, because delayed negative feedbacks leading to oscillatory or other complex dynamics are weak. Here, we address the question of whether this relative simplicity allows us to foresee a community's future state. As a case study, we use a model of a bipartite mutualistic network and show that a network's post-transition state is indicated by the way in which a system recovers from minor disturbances. Similar results obtained with a unipartite model of facilitation suggest that our results are of relevance to a wide range of mutualistic systems.

Inequality in nature and society.

Most societies are economically dominated by a small elite, and similarly, natural communities are typically dominated by a small fraction of the species. Here we reveal a strong similarity between patterns of inequality in nature and society, hinting at fundamental unifying mechanisms. We show that chance alone will drive 1% or less of the community to dominate 50% of all resources in situations where gains and losses are multiplicative, as in returns on assets or growth rates of populations. Key mechanisms that counteract such hyperdominance include natural enemies in nature and wealth-equalizing institutions in society. However, historical research of European developments over the past millennium suggests that such institutions become ineffective in times of societal upscaling. A corollary is that in a globalizing world, wealth will inevitably be appropriated by a very small fraction of the population unless effective wealth-equalizing institutions emerge at the global level.

Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression.

About 17% of humanity goes through an episode of major depression at some point in their lifetime. Despite the enormous societal costs of this incapacitating disorder, it is largely unknown how the likelihood of falling into a depressive episode can be assessed. Here, we show for a large group of healthy individuals and patients that the probability of an upcoming shift between a depressed and a normal state is related to elevated temporal autocorrelation, variance, and correlation between emotions in fluctuations of autorecorded emotions. These are indicators of the general phenomenon of critical slowing down, which is expected to occur when a system approaches a tipping point. Our results support the hypothesis that mood may have alternative stable states separated by tipping points, and suggest an approach for assessing the likelihood of transitions into and out of depression.

Impact of human disturbance on biogeochemical fluxes in tropical seascapes.

Tropical seascapes rely on the feedback relationships among mangrove forests, seagrass meadows, and coral reefs, as they mutually facilitate and enhance each other's functionality. Biogeochemical fluxes link tropical coastal habitats by exchanging material flows and energy through various natural processes that determine the conditions for life and ecosystem functioning. However, little is known about the seascape-scale implications of anthropogenic disruptions to these linkages. Despite the limited number of integrated empirical studies available (with only 11 out of 81 selected studies focusing on the integrated dynamics of mangroves, seagrass, and corals), this review emphasizes the importance of biogeochemical fluxes for ecosystem connectivity in tropical seascapes. It identifies four primary anthropogenic influences that can disturb these fluxes-nutrient enrichment, chemical pollution, microbial pollution, and solid waste accumulation-resulting in eutrophication, increased disease incidence, toxicity, and disruptions to water carbonate chemistry. This review also highlights significant knowledge gaps in our understanding of biogeochemical fluxes and ecosystem responses to perturbations in tropical seascapes. Addressing these knowledge gaps is crucial for developing practical strategies to conserve and manage connected seascapes effectively. Integrated research is needed to shed light on the complex interactions and feedback mechanisms within these ecosystems, providing valuable insights for conservation and management practices.

High temperature and eutrophication alter biomass allocation of black mangrove (Avicennia germinans L.) seedlings.

Mangrove restoration is underway along tropical coastlines to combat their rapid worldwide decline. However, restoration success is limited due to local drivers such as eutrophication, and global drivers such as climate change, yet their interactions remain unclear. We conducted a mesocosm experiment to assess the impact of increased nutrients and temperature on the photosynthetic efficiency and development of black mangrove seedlings. Seedlings exposed to high temperature and eutrophication showed reduced root growth and disproportionally long stems, with lower net assimilation rates. This architectonical imbalance between root and stem growth may increase susceptibility to physical disturbances and dislodgement. Notably, none of the experimental seedlings displayed signs of photophysiological stress, and those exposed to increased nutrients and temperature exhibited robust photosynthetic performance. The disbalance in biomass allocation highlights the importance of considering local nutrient status and hydrodynamic conditions in restoration projects, ensuring the effective anchorage of mangrove seedlings and restoration success under a warming climate.

Transformation starts at the periphery of networks where pushback is less.

Complex systems ranging from societies to ecological communities and power grids may be viewed as networks of connected elements. Such systems can go through critical transitions driven by an avalanche of contagious change. Here we ask, where in a complex network such a systemic shift is most likely to start. Intuitively, a central node seems the most likely source of such change. Indeed, topological studies suggest that central nodes can be the Achilles heel for attacks. We argue that the opposite is true for the class of networks in which all nodes tend to follow the state of their neighbors, a category we call two-way pull networks. In this case, a well-connected central node is an unlikely starting point of a systemic shift due to the buffering effect of connected neighbors. As a result, change is most likely to cascade through the network if it spreads first among relatively poorly connected nodes in the periphery. The probability of such initial spread is highest when the perturbation starts from intermediately connected nodes at the periphery, or more specifically, nodes with intermediate degree and relatively low closeness centrality. Our finding is consistent with empirical observations on social innovation, and may be relevant to topics as different as the sources of originality of art, collapse of financial and ecological networks and the onset of psychiatric disorders.

The potential of resilience indicators to anticipate infectious disease outbreaks, a systematic review and guide.

To reduce the consequences of infectious disease outbreaks, the timely implementation of public health measures is crucial. Currently used early-warning systems are highly context-dependent and require a long phase of model building. A proposed solution to anticipate the onset or termination of an outbreak is the use of so-called resilience indicators. These indicators are based on the generic theory of critical slowing down and require only incidence time series. Here we assess the potential for this approach to contribute to outbreak anticipation. We systematically reviewed studies that used resilience indicators to predict outbreaks or terminations of epidemics. We identified 37 studies meeting the inclusion criteria: 21 using simulated data and 16 real-world data. 36 out of 37 studies detected significant signs of critical slowing down before a critical transition (i.e., the onset or end of an outbreak), with a highly variable sensitivity (i.e., the proportion of true positive outbreak warnings) ranging from 0.03 to 1 and a lead time ranging from 10 days to 68 months. Challenges include low resolution and limited length of time series, a too rapid increase in cases, and strong seasonal patterns which may hamper the sensitivity of resilience indicators. Alternative types of data, such as Google searches or social media data, have the potential to improve predictions in some cases. Resilience indicators may be useful when the risk of disease outbreaks is changing gradually. This may happen, for instance, when pathogens become increasingly adapted to an environment or evolve gradually to escape immunity. High-resolution monitoring is needed to reach sufficient sensitivity. If those conditions are met, resilience indicators could help improve the current practice of prediction, facilitating timely outbreak response. We provide a step-by-step guide on the use of resilience indicators in infectious disease epidemiology, and guidance on the relevant situations to use this approach.

Loss of Earth system resilience during early Eocene transient global warming events.

Superimposed on long-term late Paleocene-early Eocene warming (~59 to 52 million years ago), Earth's climate experienced a series of abrupt perturbations, characterized by massive carbon input into the ocean-atmosphere system and global warming. Here, we examine the three most punctuated events of this period, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 and 3, to probe whether they were initiated by climate-driven carbon cycle tipping points. Specifically, we analyze the dynamics of climate and carbon cycle indicators acquired from marine sediments to detect changes in Earth system resilience and to identify positive feedbacks. Our analyses suggest a loss of Earth system resilience toward all three events. Moreover, dynamic convergent cross mapping reveals intensifying coupling between the carbon cycle and climate during the long-term warming trend, supporting increasingly dominant climate forcing of carbon cycle dynamics during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum when these recurrent global warming events became more frequent.

Predicting microbial nitrogen pathways from basic principles.

Nitrogen compounds are transformed by a complicated network of competing geochemical processes or microbial pathways, each performed by a different ecological guild of microorganisms. Complete experimental unravelling of this network requires a prohibitive experimental effort. Here we present a simple model that predicts relative rates of hypothetical nitrogen pathways, based only on the stoichiometry and energy yield of the performed redox reaction, assuming competition for resources between alternative pathways. Simulating competing pathways in hypothetical freshwater and marine sediment situations, we surprisingly found that much of the variation observed in nature can simply be predicted from these basic principles. Investigating discrepancies between observations and predictions led to two important biochemical factors that may create barriers for the viability of pathways: enzymatic costs for long pathways and high ammonium activation energy. We hypothesize that some discrepancies can be explained by non-equilibrium dynamics. The model predicted a pathway that has not been discovered in nature yet: the dismutation of nitrite to the level of nitrate and dinitrogen gas.

Dynamical indicators of resilience from physiological time series in geriatric inpatients: Lessons learned.

The concept of physical resilience may help geriatric medicine objectively assess patients' ability to 'bounce back' from future health challenges. Indicators putatively forecasting resilience have been developed under two paradigms with different perspectives: Critical Slowing Down and Loss of Complexity. This study explored whether these indicators validly reflect the construct of resilience in geriatric inpatients. Geriatric patients (n = 121, 60% female) had their heart rate and physical activity continuously monitored using a chest-worn sensor. Indicators from both paradigms were extracted from both physiological signals. Measures of health functioning, concomitant with low resilience, were obtained by questionnaire at admission. The relationships among indicators and their associations with health functioning were assessed by correlation and linear regression analyses, respectively. Greater complexity and higher variance in physical activity were associated with lower frailty (ß = -0.28, p = .004 and ß = -0.37, p < .001, respectively) and better ADL function (ß = 0.23, p = .022 and ß = 0.38, p < .001). The associations of physical activity variance with health functioning were not in the expected direction based on Critical Slowing Down. In retrospect, these observations stress the importance of matching the resilience paradigm's assumptions to the homeostatic role of the variable monitored. We present several lessons learned.

Depression alters the circadian pattern of online activity.

Human sleep/wake cycles follow a stable circadian rhythm associated with hormonal, emotional, and cognitive changes. Changes of this cycle are implicated in many mental health concerns. In fact, the bidirectional relation between major depressive disorder and sleep has been well-documented. Despite a clear link between sleep disturbances and subsequent disturbances in mood, it is difficult to determine from self-reported data which specific changes of the sleep/wake cycle play the most important role in this association. Here we observe marked changes of activity cycles in millions of twitter posts of 688 subjects who explicitly stated in unequivocal terms that they had received a (clinical) diagnosis of depression as compared to the activity cycles of a large control group (n = 8791). Rather than a phase-shift, as reported in other work, we find significant changes of activity levels in the evening and before dawn. Compared to the control group, depressed subjects were significantly more active from 7 PM to midnight and less active from 3 to 6 AM. Content analysis of tweets revealed a steady rise in rumination and emotional content from midnight to dawn among depressed individuals. These results suggest that diagnosis and treatment of depression may focus on modifying the timing of activity, reducing rumination, and decreasing social media use at specific hours of the day.

Measurement of Dynamical Resilience Indicators Improves the Prediction of Recovery Following Hospitalization in Older Adults.

OBJECTIVES: Acute illnesses and subsequent hospital admissions present large health stressors to older adults, after which their recovery is variable. The concept of physical resilience offers opportunities to develop dynamical tools to predict an individual's recovery potential. This study aimed to investigate if dynamical resilience indicators based on repeated physical and mental measurements in acutely hospitalized geriatric patients have added value over single baseline measurements in predicting favorable recovery. DESIGN: Intensive longitudinal study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: 121 patients (aged 84.3 ± 6.2 years, 60% female) admitted to the geriatric ward for acute illness. MEASUREMENTS: In addition to preadmission characteristics (frailty, multimorbidity), in-hospital heart rate and physical activity were continuously monitored with a wearable sensor. Momentary well-being (life satisfaction, anxiety, discomfort) was measured by experience sampling 4 times per day. The added value of dynamical indicators of resilience was investigated for predicting recovery at hospital discharge and 3 months later. RESULTS: 31% of participants satisfied the criteria of good recovery at hospital discharge and 50% after 3 months. A combination of a frailty index, multimorbidity, Clinical Frailty Scale, and or gait speed predicted good recovery reasonably well on the short term [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.79], but only moderately after 3 months (AUC = 0.70). On addition of dynamical resilience indicators, the AUC for predicting good 3-month recovery increased to 0.79 (P = .03). Variability in life satisfaction and anxiety during the hospital stay were independent predictors of good 3-month recovery [odds ratio (OR) = 0.24, P = .01, and OR = 0.54, P = .04, respectively]. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: These results highlight that measurements capturing the dynamic functioning of multiple physiological systems have added value in assessing physical resilience in clinical practice, especially those monitoring mental responses. Improved monitoring and prediction of physical resilience could help target intensive treatment options and subsequent geriatric rehabilitation to patients who will most likely benefit from them.

The minute-scale dynamics of online emotions reveal the effects of affect labeling.

Putting one's feelings into words (also called affect labeling) can attenuate positive and negative emotions. Here, we track the evolution of specific emotions for 74,487 Twitter users by analysing the emotional content of their tweets before and after they explicitly report experiencing a positive or negative emotion. Our results describe the evolution of emotions and their expression at the temporal resolution of one minute. The expression of positive emotions is preceded by a short, steep increase in positive valence and followed by short decay to normal levels. Negative emotions, however, build up more slowly and are followed by a sharp reversal to previous levels, consistent with previous studies demonstrating the attenuating effects of affect labeling. We estimate that positive and negative emotions last approximately 1.25 and 1.5 h, respectively, from onset to evanescence. A separate analysis for male and female individuals suggests the potential for gender-specific differences in emotional dynamics.

Finding the direction of lowest resilience in multivariate complex systems.

The dynamics of complex systems, such as ecosystems, financial markets and the human brain, emerge from the interactions of numerous components. We often lack the knowledge to build reliable models for the behaviour of such network systems. This makes it difficult to predict potential instabilities. We show that one could use the natural fluctuations in multivariate time series to reveal network regions with particularly slow dynamics. The multidimensional slowness points to the direction of minimal resilience, in the sense that simultaneous perturbations on this set of nodes will take longest to recover. We compare an autocorrelation-based method with a variance-based method for different time-series lengths, data resolution and different noise regimes. We show that the autocorrelation-based method is less robust for short time series or time series with a low resolution but more robust for varying noise levels. This novel approach may help to identify unstable regions of multivariate systems or to distinguish safe from unsafe perturbations.

Resilience in Clinical Care: Getting a Grip on the Recovery Potential of Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Geriatricians are often confronted with unexpected health outcomes in older adults with complex multimorbidity. Aging researchers have recently called for a focus on physical resilience as a new approach to explaining such outcomes. Physical resilience, defined as the ability to resist functional decline or recover health following a stressor, is an emerging construct. METHODS: Based on an outline of the state-of-the-art in research on the measurement of physical resilience, this article describes what tests to predict resilience can already be used in clinical practice and which innovations are to be expected soon. RESULTS: An older adult's recovery potential is currently predicted by static tests of physiological reserves. Although geriatric medicine typically adopts a multidisciplinary view of the patient and implicitly performs resilience management to a certain extent, clinical management of older adults can benefit from explicitly applying the dynamical concept of resilience. Two crucial leads for advancing our capacity to measure and manage the resilience of individual patients are advocated: first, performing multiple repeated measurements around a stressor can provide insight about the patient's dynamic responses to stressors; and, second, linking psychological and physiological subsystems, as proposed by network studies on resilience, can provide insight into dynamic interactions involved in a resilient response. CONCLUSION: A big challenge still lies ahead in translating the dynamical concept of resilience into clinical tools and guidelines. As a first step in bridging this gap, this article outlines what opportunities clinicians and researchers can already exploit to improve prediction, understanding, and management of resilience of older adults. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:2650-2657, 2019.

Dynamical Indicators of Resilience in Postural Balance Time Series Are Related to Successful Aging in High-Functioning Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: Finding ways to quantify resilience as a predictor of a person's resistance to health challenges is important to improve healthy aging. This study investigated a unique sample of high-functioning older persons in whom traditional markers of frailty and functional decline are largely absent. Translating complex dynamical systems theory to humans, dynamical indicators of resilience in postural balance time series may sensitively discriminate levels of resilience. METHODS: This study investigated 240 high-functioning older adults (mean age 83.9 ± 2.9 years, 59% male), of whom 94 hikers of the Nijmegen Four Days Marches. Participants stood upright on a force plate with eyes open and feet at shoulder width for 30 seconds. Center of pressure data were analyzed for dynamical indicators of resilience (variance and temporal autocorrelation). After 1 year, participants were compared on a modified Successful Aging Index. RESULTS: Mediolateral center of pressure displacement of hikers exhibited significantly lower variance (2.2 vs 2.8 mm, p < .001) and temporal autocorrelation (0.59 vs 0.65, p = .006), compared with nonhikers. Multivariably adjusted, mediolateral variance was significantly associated with successful aging at baseline (b = -1.43, p = .003) and 1-year follow-up (b = -1.94, p < .001), while mediolateral temporal autocorrelation was not. CONCLUSIONS: Two dynamical indicators of resilience (variance and temporal autocorrelation) calculated on time series of mediolateral center of pressure displacement differed between hikers and nonhikers within a group of high-functioning older adults. In the whole group, variance was independently associated with successful aging at baseline and after 1 year. Our results support the hypothesis that resilience of older persons may be estimated from time series of natural fluctuations of bodily functions.