Range and Frequency of Congenital Malformations Among Children With Cleft Lip and/or Palate.

To assess the range and frequency of additional congenital malformations identified among children born alive with CL/P.Analysis of patient-level data from a national registry of cleft births linked to national administrative data of hospital admissions.National Health Service, England.Children born between 2000 and 2012 receiving cleft care in English NHS hospitals.The proportion of children with ICD-10 codes for additional congenital malformations, according to cleft type.The study included 9403 children. Of these 2114 (22.5%) had CL±A, 4509 (48.0%) had CP, 1896 (20.2%) had UCLP, and 884 (9.4%) had BCLP. A total of 3653 (38.8%) children had additional congenital malformations documented in their hospital admission records. The prevalence of additional congenital malformations was greatest among children with CP (53.0%), followed by those with BCLP (33.5%), UCLP (26.3%), and then CL±A (22.2%) (P < .001). Among those with UCLP, children with right-sided clefts were more likely to have additional malformations than those with left-sided clefts (31.6% vs 23.0%, P < .001). Malformations of the skeletal system and circulatory system were most common, affecting 10.5% and 10.2% of the included children, respectively. A total of 16.8% of children had additional congenital malformations affecting 2 or more structural systems.Congenital malformations are common among children born alive with a cleft, affecting over half of some cleft subgroups. Given the frequency of certain structural malformations, clinicians should consider standardized screening for these children. Establishing good links with pediatric and genetic services is recommended.

Associations between ethnicity and admission to intensive care among women giving birth: a cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between ethnic group and likelihood of admission to intensive care in pregnancy and the postnatal period. DESIGN: Cohort study. SETTING: Maternity and intensive care units in England and Wales. POPULATION OR SAMPLE: A total of 631 851 women who had a record of a registerable birth between 1 April 2015 and 31 March 2016 in a database used for national audit. METHODS: Logistic regression analyses of linked maternity and intensive care records, with multiple imputation to account for missing data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Admission to intensive care in pregnancy or postnatal period to 6 weeks after birth. RESULTS: In all, 2.24 per 1000 maternities were associated with intensive care admission. Black women were more than twice as likely as women from other ethnic groups to be admitted (odds ratio [OR] 2.21, 95% CI 1.82-2.68). This association was only partially explained by demographic, lifestyle, pregnancy and birth factors (adjusted OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.37-2.09). A higher proportion of intensive care admissions in Black women were for obstetric haemorrhage than in women from other ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Black women have an increased risk of intensive care admission that cannot be explained by demographic, health, lifestyle, pregnancy and birth factors. Clinical and policy intervention should focus on the early identification and management of severe illness, particularly obstetric haemorrhage, in Black women, in order to reduce inequalities in intensive care admission. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Black women are almost twice as likely as White women to be admitted to intensive care during pregnancy and the postpartum period; this risk remains after accounting for demographic, health, lifestyle, pregnancy and birth factors.

Impact of a mid-urethral synthetic mesh sling on long-term risk of systemic conditions in women with stress urinary incontinence: a national cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the incidence of systemic conditions between women who had surgical treatment for stress incontinence with mesh and without mesh. DESIGN: National cohort study. SETTING: English National Health Service. POPULATION: Women with no previous record of systemic disease who had first-time urinary incontinence surgery between 1 January 2006 and 31 December 2013, followed up to the earliest of 10 years or 31 March 2019. METHODS: Competing-risks regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR), adjusted for patient characteristics, with HR > 1 indicating increased incidence following mesh surgery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: First postoperative admission with a record of autoimmune disease, fibromyalgia or myalgic encephalomyelitis up to 10 years following the first incontinence procedure. RESULTS: The cohort included 88 947 women who had mesh surgery and 3389 women who had non-mesh surgery. Both treatment groups were similar with respect to age, socio-economic deprivation, comorbidity and ethnicity. The 10-year cumulative incidence of autoimmune disease, fibromyalgia or myalgic encephalomyelitis was 8.1% (95% CI 7.9-8.3%) in the mesh group and 9.0% (95% CI 8.0-10.1%) in the non-mesh group (adjusted HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.79-1.01; P = 0.07). A sensitivity analysis including only autoimmune diseases as an outcome returned a similar result. CONCLUSIONS: These findings do not support claims that synthetic mesh slings cause systemic disease. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: No evidence of increased risk of systemic conditions after stress incontinence treatment with a mesh sling.

Impact of a quality improvement project to reduce the rate of obstetric anal sphincter injury: a multicentre study with a stepped-wedge design.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of a care bundle (antenatal information to women, manual perineal protection and mediolateral episiotomy when indicated) on obstetric anal sphincter injury (OASI) rates. DESIGN: Multicentre stepped-wedge cluster design. SETTING: Sixteen maternity units located in four regions across England, Scotland and Wales. POPULATION: Women with singleton live births between October 2016 and March 2018. METHODS: Stepwise region by region roll-out every 3 months starting January 2017. The four maternity units in a region started at the same time. Multi-level logistic regression was used to estimate the impact of the care bundle, adjusting for time trend and case-mix factors (age, ethnicity, body mass index, parity, birthweight and mode of birth). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Obstetric anal sphincter injury in singleton live vaginal births. RESULTS: A total of 55 060 singleton live vaginal births were included (79% spontaneous and 21% operative). Median maternal age was 30 years (interquartile range 26-34 years) and 46% of women were primiparous. The OASI rate decreased from 3.3% before to 3.0% after care bundle implementation (adjusted odds ratio 0.80, 95% CI 0.65-0.98, P = 0.03). There was no evidence that the effect of the care bundle differed according to parity (P = 0.77) or mode of birth (P = 0.31). There were no significant changes in caesarean section (P = 0.19) or episiotomy rates (P = 0.16) during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of this care bundle reduced OASI rates without affecting caesarean section rates or episiotomy use. These findings demonstrate its potential for reducing perineal trauma during childbirth. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: OASI Care Bundle reduced severe perineal tear rates without affecting caesarean section rates or episiotomy use.

Risk stratification for prostate cancer management: value of the Cambridge Prognostic Group classification for assessing treatment allocation.

BACKGROUND: The five-tiered Cambridge Prognostic Group (CPG) classification is a better predictor of prostate cancer-specific mortality than the traditional three-tiered classification (low, intermediate, and high risk). We investigated radical treatment rates according to CPG in men diagnosed with non-metastatic prostate cancer in England between 2014 and 2017. METHODS: Patients diagnosed with non-metastatic prostate cancer were identified from the National Prostate Cancer Audit database. Men were risk stratified according to the CPG classification. Risk ratios (RR) were estimated for undergoing radical treatment according to CPG and for receiving radiotherapy for those treated radically. Funnel plots were used to display variation in radical treatment rates across hospitals. RESULTS: A total of 61,999 men were included with 10,963 (17.7%) in CPG1 (lowest risk group), 13,588 (21.9%) in CPG2, 9452 (15.2%) in CPG3, 12,831 (20.7%) in CPG4, and 15,165 (24.5%) in CPG5 (highest risk group). The proportion of men receiving radical treatment increased from 11.3% in CPG1 to 78.8% in CGP4, and 73.3% in CPG5. Men in CPG3 were more likely to receive radical treatment than men in CPG2 (66.3% versus 48.4%; adjusted RR 1.44; 95% CI 1.36-1.53; P < 0.001). Radically treated men in CPG3 were also more likely to receive radiotherapy than men in CPG2 (59.2% versus 43.9%; adjusted RR, 1.18; 95% CI 1.10-1.26). Although radical treatment rates were similar in CPG4 and CPG5 (78.8% versus 73.3%; adjusted RR 1.01; 95% CI 0.98-1.04), more men in CPG5 had radiotherapy than men in CPG4 (79.9% versus 59.1%, adjusted RR 1.26; 95% CI 1.12-1.40). CONCLUSIONS: The CPG classification distributes men in five risk groups that are about equal in size. It reveals differences in treatment practices in men with intermediate-risk disease (CPG2 and CPG3) and in men with high-risk disease (CPG4 and CPGP5) that are not visible when using the traditional three-tiered risk classification.

Short- and long-term mortality after liver transplantation in patients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma in the UK.

BACKGROUND: The increasing demand for liver transplantation has led to considerable changes in characteristics of donors and recipients. This study evaluated the short- and long-term mortality of recipients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in the UK between 1997 and 2016. METHODS: First-time elective adult liver transplant recipients in the UK were identified and four successive eras of transplantation were compared. Hazard ratios (HRs) comparing the impact of era on short-term (first 90 days) and longer-term (from 90 days to 5 years) mortality were estimated, with adjustment for recipient and donor characteristics. RESULTS: Some 1879 recipients with and 7661 without HCC were included. There was an increase in use of organs donated after circulatory death (DCD), from 0 per cent in era 1 to 35·2 per cent in era 4 for recipients with HCC, and from 0·2 to 24·1 per cent for non-HCC recipients. The 3-year mortality rate decreased from 28·3 per cent in era 1 to 16·9 per cent in era 4 (adjusted HR 0·47, 95 per cent c.i. 0·35 to 0·63) for recipients with HCC, and from 20·4 to 9·3 per cent (adjusted HR 0·44, 0·36 to 0·53) for those without HCC. Comparing era 4 with era 1, improvements were more marked in short-term than in long-term mortality, both for recipients with HCC (0-90 days: adjusted HR 0·20, 0·10 to 0·39; 90 days to 5 years: adjusted HR 0·52, 0·35 to 0·75; P = 0·043) and for non-HCC recipients (0-90 days: adjusted HR 0·32, 0·24 to 0·42; 90 days to 5 years: adjusted HR 0·52, 0·40 to 0·67; P = 0·024). CONCLUSION: In the past 20 years, the mortality rate after liver transplantation has more than halved, despite increasing use of DCD donors. Improvements in overall survival can be explained by decreases in short-term and longer-term mortality.

ANTECEDENTES: La creciente demanda de trasplante hepático ha determinado cambios considerables en las características de los donantes y receptores. En este estudio, se evaluó la mortalidad a corto y a largo plazo de los receptores de trasplante hepático por carcinoma hepatocelular (hepatocelular carcinoma, HCC) y no-HCC en el Reino Unido entre 1997 y 2016. MÉTODOS: Se identificaron los receptores adultos de un primer trasplante hepático electivo en el Reino Unido y se compararon cuatro eras sucesivas de trasplante. Se estimaron los cocientes de riesgos instantáneos ajustados (adjusted hazard ratio, aHR) que comparaban el impacto de la era en la mortalidad a corto plazo (primeros 90 días) y a largo plazo (de 90 días a 5 años) ajustando por las características del receptor y del donante. RESULTADOS: Se incluyeron 1.879 receptores HCC y 7.661 receptores no-HCC. Hubo un aumento en el uso de donantes después de parada cardíaca (donors following circulatory death, DCD) del 0% en la era 1 al 35,2% en la era 4 para los receptores HCC y del 0,2% al 24,1% para los receptores no-HCC. La mortalidad a los 3 años disminuyó de 28,3% en la era 1 a 16,9% en la era 4 (aHR 0,47, i.c. del 95% 0,35-0,63) para receptores HCC y de 20,4% a 9,3% (aHR 0,44, 0,36-0,53) para receptores no-HCC. Comparando la era 1 y la era 4, las mejoras en la mortalidad a corto plazo fueron más marcadas que en la mortalidad a largo plazo, tanto para receptores HCC (aHR 0-90 días 0,20, 0,10-0,39; 90 días-5 años 0,52, 0,35-0,75; P =舁0,04) como para receptores no-HCC (aHR 0-90 días 0,32, 0,24-0,42; 90 días-5 años 0,52, 0,40-0,67; P =舁0,02). CONCLUSIÓN: En los últimos 20 años, la mortalidad después del trasplante de hígado se ha reducido a más de la mitad, a pesar del uso cada vez mayor de donantes DCD. Las mejoras en la supervivencia global pueden explicarse por la disminución de la mortalidad a corto y largo plazo.

Liver transplantation outcomes after transarterial chemotherapy for hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) awaiting liver transplantation is widespread, although evidence that it improves outcomes is lacking and there exist concerns about morbidity. The impact of TACE on outcomes after transplantation was evaluated in this study. METHODS: Patients with HCC who had liver transplantation in the UK were identified, and stratified according to whether they received TACE between 2006 and 2016. Cox regression methods were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for death and graft failure after transplantation adjusted for donor and recipient characteristics. RESULTS: In total, 385 of 968 patients (39·8 per cent) received TACE. Five-year patient survival after transplantation was similar in those who had or had not received TACE: 75·2 (95 per cent c.i. 68·8 to 80·5) and 75·0 (70·5 to 78·8) per cent respectively. After adjustment for donor and recipient characteristics, there were no differences in mortality (HR 0·96, 95 per cent c.i. 0·67 to 1·38; P = 0·821) or graft failure (HR 1·01, 0·73 to 1·40; P = 0·964). The number of TACE treatments (2 or more versus 1: HR 0·97, 0·61 to 1·55; P = 0·903) or the time of death after transplantation (within or after 90 days; P = 0·291) did not alter the outcome. The incidence of hepatic artery thrombosis was low in those who had or had not received TACE (1·3 and 2·4 per cent respectively; P = 0·235). CONCLUSION: TACE delivered to patients with HCC before liver transplant did not affect complications, patient death or graft failure after transplantation.

ANTECEDENTES: La quimioembolización transarterial (transarterial chemoembolization, TACE) en pacientes con carcinoma hepatocelular (hepatocellular carcinoma, HCC) se utiliza como puente al trasplante hepático, aunque falta evidencia de que mejore los resultados y la morbilidad relacionada es motivo de preocupación. En este estudio se evaluó el impacto de la TACE en los resultados tras el trasplante para analizar las complicaciones. MÉTODOS: Se identificaron los receptores de trasplante hepático por HCC en el Reino Unido y se estratificaron según si habían recibido TACE entre 2006 y 2016. Se utilizó el método de regresión de Cox para estimar los cocientes de riesgos instantáneos (hazard ratio, HR) para la mortalidad post-trasplante y el fallo del injerto ajustados por las características del donante y del receptor. RESULTADOS: En total, 385 (39,8%) de 968 pacientes recibieron TACE, observándose similar supervivencia del paciente a los 5 años después del trasplante: 75,2% (i.c. del 95%: 68,8% a 80,5%) con TACE y 75,0% (70,5% a 78,8 %) sin TACE. Después de ajustar según las características del donante y del receptor, no hubo diferencias en la mortalidad (HR: 0,96, 0,67 a 1,38; P = 0,82) o en el fallo del injerto (HR: 1,01, 0,73 a 1,40; P = 0,96). El número de tratamientos con TACE (≥ 2 tratamientos TACE HR: 0,97, 0,61 a 1,55; P = 0,90) o el período de tiempo después del trasplante (mortalidad del paciente antes o después de 90 días; P = 0,29) no alteró el resultado. La incidencia de trombosis de la arteria hepática fue baja en aquellos que recibieron TACE o no (1,3% y 2,5%, respectivamente; P = 0,23). El fallo del injerto debido a eventos oclusivos fue similar en el grupo de pacientes que recibieron TACE (8,0% o 11/137) o que no la recibieron (6,7% o 5/75) TACE (P = 0,74). CONCLUSIÓN: La administración de TACE en pacientes con HCC antes del trasplante hepático no influyó en las complicaciones post-trasplante, la mortalidad del paciente o el fallo del injerto.

Weak MGMT gene promoter methylation confers a clinically significant survival benefit in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma: a retrospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Quantitative methylation specific PCR (qMSP) is a frequently used technique to assess MGMT gene promoter methylation in glioblastoma patients. The optimal technical cut-off value to distinguish methylated from unmethylated samples is nevertheless still undetermined. In literature, a "grey zone" of diagnostic uncertainty has been described. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of newly diagnosed glioblastoma patients treated according to the Stupp protocol. Epidemiological data were gathered from the individual patient files. MGMT gene promoter methylation status was determined on stored tumour samples using qMSP. A strong, weak or absent promoter methylation was determined based on Cq values (quantification value) of the MGMT and ACTB primers as well as a positive control sample. RESULTS: In total, 181 patient files were reviewed and included for statistical analysis. MGMT promoter hypermethylation was detected in 38.7% of glioblastoma patients. The median overall survival of unmethylated and strongly methylated patients was 10.1 months and 19.7 months respectively. Furthermore, 11% of the total patient cohort had a weak MGMT gene promoter methylation. The median OS in this subgroup was 15.4 months, significantly better compared to the unmethylated cohort (P < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed weak MGMT promoter methylation as an independent prognostic parameter for overall survival. CONCLUSION: Glioblastoma patients with weak promoter methylation show a statistically significant longer overall survival when compared to clearly unmethylated patients. Patients with grey zone qMSP test results should receive additional molecular analysis in future to further direct individual therapy strategies.

A step-wise approach to developing indicators to compare the performance of maternity units using hospital administrative data.

Hospital administrative data are attractive for comparing performance of maternity units because of their often large sample sizes, lack of selection bias and the relatively low costs of accessing these data compared with conducting primary data collection. However, using administrative data to develop indicators can also present challenges including varying data quality, the limited detail on clinical risk factors and a lack of structural and user experience measures. This review illustrates how to develop performance indicators for maternity units using hospital administrative data, including methods to address the challenges that administrative data pose. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: How to develop maternity indicators from administrative data.

The timing of liver resection in patients with colorectal cancer and synchronous liver metastases: a population-based study of current practice and survival.

AIM: There is uncertainty regarding the optimal sequence of surgery for patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) and synchronous liver metastases. This study was designed to describe temporal trends and inter-hospital variation in surgical strategy, and to compare long-term survival in a propensity score-matched analysis. METHOD: The National Bowel Cancer Audit dataset was used to identify patients diagnosed with primary CRC between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2015 who underwent CRC resection in the English National Health Service. Hospital Episode Statistics data were used to identify those with synchronous liver-limited metastases who underwent liver resection. Survival outcomes of propensity score-matched groups were compared. RESULTS: Of 1830 patients, 270 (14.8%) underwent a liver-first approach, 259 (14.2%) a simultaneous approach and 1301 (71.1%) a bowel-first approach. The proportion of patients undergoing either a liver-first or simultaneous approach increased over the study period from 26.8% in 2010 to 35.6% in 2015 (P < 0.001). There was wide variation in surgical approach according to hospital trust of diagnosis. There was no evidence of a difference in 4-year survival between the propensity score-matched cohorts according to surgical strategy: bowel first vs simultaneous [hazard ratio (HR) 0.92 (95% CI: 0.80-1.06)] or bowel first vs liver first [HR 0.99 (95% CI: 0.82-1.19)]. CONCLUSION: There is evidence of wide variation in surgical strategy in dealing with CRC and synchronous liver metastases. In selected patients, the simultaneous and liver-first strategies have comparable long-term survival to the bowel-first approach.

Association between age and access to immediate breast reconstruction in women undergoing mastectomy for breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: National guidelines state that patients with breast cancer undergoing mastectomy in England should be offered immediate breast reconstruction (IR), unless precluded by their fitness for surgery or the need for adjuvant therapies. METHODS: A national study investigated factors that influenced clinicians' decision to offer IR, and collected data on case mix, operative procedures and reconstructive decision-making among women with breast cancer having a mastectomy with or without IR in the English National Health Service between 1 January 2008 and 31 March 2009. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between whether or not women were offered IR and their characteristics (tumour burden, functional status, planned radiotherapy, planned chemotherapy, perioperative fitness, obesity, smoking status and age). RESULTS: Of 13 225 women, 6458 (48·8 per cent) were offered IR. Among factors the guidelines highlighted as relevant to decision-making, the three most strongly associated with the likelihood of an offer were tumour burden, planned radiotherapy and performance status. Depending on the combination of their values, the probability of an IR offer ranged from 7·4 to 85·1 per cent. A regression model that included all available factors discriminated well between whether or not women were offered IR (c-statistic 0·773), but revealed that increasing age was associated with a fall in the probability of an IR offer beyond that expected from older patients' tumour and co-morbidity characteristics. CONCLUSION: Clinicians are broadly following guidance on the offer of IR, except with respect to patients' age.

The Prevalence of Clinically Significant Prostate Cancer According to Commonly Used Histological Thresholds in Men Undergoing Template Prostate Mapping Biopsies.

PURPOSE: Transrectal prostate biopsies are inaccurate and, thus, the prevalence of clinically significant prostate cancer in men undergoing biopsy is unknown. We determined the ability of different histological thresholds to denote clinically significant cancer in men undergoing a more accurate biopsy, that of transperineal template prostate mapping. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this multicenter, cross-sectional cohort of men who underwent template prostate mapping biopsies between May 2006 and January 2012, 4 different thresholds of significance combining tumor grade and burden were used to measure the consequent variation with respect to the prevalence of clinically significant disease. RESULTS: Of 1,203 men 17% (199) had no previous biopsy, 38% (455) had a prior negative transrectal ultrasound biopsy, 24% (289) were on active surveillance and 21% (260) were seeking risk stratification. Mean patient age was 63.5 years (SD 7.6) and median prostate specific antigen was 7.4 ng/ml (IQR 5.3-10.5). Overall 35% of the patients (424) had no cancer detected. The prevalence of clinically significant cancer varied between 14% and 83% according to the histological threshold used, in particular between 30% and 51% among men who had no previous biopsy, between 14% and 27% among men who had a prior negative biopsy, between 36% and 74% among men on active surveillance, and between 47% and 83% among men seeking risk stratification. CONCLUSIONS: According to template prostate mapping biopsy between 1 in 2 and 1 in 3 men have prostate cancer that is histologically defined as clinically significant. This suggests that the commonly used thresholds may be set too low.

Parasitic myoma after laparoscopic morcellation: a systematic review of the literature.

BACKGROUND: Laparoscopic morcellation is frequently used for tissue removal after laparoscopic hysterectomy or myomectomy and may result in parasitic myomas, due to seeding of remained tissue fragments in the abdominal cavity. However, little is known about the incidence and risk factors of this phenomenon. OBJECTIVES: To identify the incidence and risk factors for the development of parasitic myoma after laparoscopic morcellation. SEARCH STRATEGY: A systematic review of the literature in Pubmed (MEDLINE) and Embase was conducted. Reference lists of identified relevant articles were checked for missing case reports. SELECTION CRITERIA: Studies reporting on incidence or cases of parasitic myoma diagnosed after laparoscopic morcellation were selected. Studies were excluded when history of laparoscopic morcellation was lacking or final pathology demonstrated a malignancy or endometriosis. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Data were extracted and analysed on incidence of parasitic myomas and characteristics of case reports. MAIN RESULTS: Fourty-four studies were included. Sixty-nine women diagnosed with parasitic myomas after laparoscopic morcellation were identified. Mean age was 40.8 (± 7.5) years (range 24-57), median time between surgery and diagnosis was 48.0 months (range 1-192) and mean number of parasitic myomas was 2.9 (± 3.3) (range 1-16). The overall incidence of parasitic myomas after laparoscopic morcellation was 0.12-0.95%. CONCLUSION: Although the incidence is relatively low, it is important to discuss the risk of parasitic myoma after laparoscopic morcellation with women and balance towards alternative treatment options. The duration of steroid exposure after laparoscopic morcellation might be a risk factor for development of parasitic myomas. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Systematic review on the incidence and risk factors for parasitic myoma after laparoscopic morcellation.

Determinants of stoma reversal in rectal cancer patients who had an anterior resection between 2009 and 2012 in the English National Health Service.

AIM: The rate of ileostomy reversal was estimated in patients undergoing an elective anterior resection for rectal cancer and factors associated with reversal were identified. METHOD: The records of 4879 rectal patients who had an ileostomy created during anterior resection between 2009 and 2012 were identified in the National Bowel Cancer Audit database and linked to administrative records of the Hospital Episode Statistics. Patients were followed from surgery. Multivariable proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the impact of patient and cancer characteristics on ileostomy reversal with death as the competing risk. RESULTS: Within 18 months from anterior resection, 3536 (72.5%) patients had undergone ileostomy reversal. The reversal rate was lower in the following circumstances: older patients [hazard ratio (HR) 0.90; 95% CI 0.84-0.96, aged 80 vs 70 years], male gender (HR 0.90; 0.84-0.97), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) grade (HR 0.64; 0.56-0.74, ASA 3+ vs 1), more advanced cancer (HR 0.77; 0.69-0.87, T3 vs T1), socioeconomic deprivation (HR 0.83; 0.74-0.93, most vs least deprived quintile), comorbidity (HR 0.92; 0.84-1.00, one vs no comorbidity) and open surgical procedure (HR 0.90; 0.84-0.97, open vs laparoscopic). CONCLUSION: Overall, two-thirds of ileostomies were reversed within 18 months. Reversal rates were linked to patient and cancer characteristics (age, sex, fitness and stage), mode of surgical access and socioeconomic deprivation. Observed lower reversal rates in patients from poorer backgrounds may indicate inequity in access.

Model for risk adjustment of postoperative mortality in patients with colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: A model was developed for risk adjustment of postoperative mortality in patients with colorectal cancer in order to make fair comparisons between healthcare providers. Previous models were derived in relatively small studies with the use of suboptimal modelling techniques. METHODS: Data from adults included in a national study of major surgery for colorectal cancer were used to develop and validate a logistic regression model for 90-day mortality. The main risk factors were identified from a review of the literature. The association with age was modelled as a curved continuous relationship. Bootstrap resampling was used to select interactions between risk factors. RESULTS: A model based on data from 62 314 adults was developed that was well calibrated (absolute differences between observed and predicted mortality always smaller than 0·75 per cent in deciles of predicted risk). It discriminated well between low- and high-risk patients (C-index 0·800, 95 per cent c.i. 0·793 to 0·807). An interaction between age and metastatic disease was included as metastatic disease was found to increase postoperative risk in young patients aged 50 years (odds ratio 3·53, 95 per cent c.i. 2·66 to 4·67) far more than in elderly patients aged 80 years (odds ratio 1·48, 1·32 to 1·66). CONCLUSION: Use of this model, estimated in the largest number of patients with colorectal cancer to date, is recommended when comparing postoperative mortality of major colorectal cancer surgery between hospitals, clinical teams or individual surgeons.

Socioeconomic deprivation and inpatient complication rates following mastectomy and breast reconstruction surgery.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic deprivation is known to influence the presentation of patients with breast cancer and their subsequent treatments, but its relationship with surgical outcomes has not been investigated. A national prospective cohort study was undertaken to examine the effect of deprivation on the outcomes of mastectomy with or without immediate breast reconstruction. METHODS: Data were collected on patient case mix, operative procedures and inpatient complications following mastectomy with or without immediate breast reconstruction in the English National Health Service between 1 January 2008 and 31 March 2009. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the relationship between patients' level of (regional) deprivation and the likelihood of local (mastectomy site, flap, flap donor and implant) and distant or systemic complications, after adjusting for potential confounding factors. RESULTS: Of 13,689 patients who had a mastectomy, 2849 (20.8 per cent) underwent immediate reconstruction. In total, 1819 women (13.3 per cent) experienced inpatient complications. The proportion with complications increased from 11.2 per cent among the least deprived quintile (Q1) to 16.1 per cent in the most deprived (Q5). Complication rates were higher among smokers, the obese and those with poorer performance status, but were not affected by age, tumour type or Nottingham Prognostic Index. Adjustment for patient-related factors only marginally reduced the association between deprivation and complication incidence, to 11.4 per cent in Q1 and 15.4 per cent in Q5. Further adjustment for length of hospital stay, hospital case volume and immediate reconstruction rate had minimal effect. CONCLUSION: Rates of postoperative complications after mastectomy and breast reconstruction surgery were higher among women from more deprived backgrounds.

Identifying patients at risk of emergency admission for colorectal cancer.

BACKGROUND: Patients whose colorectal cancer is treated after an emergency admission tend to have late-stage cancer and a poor prognosis. We identified risk factors for an emergency admission by linking data from the National Bowel Cancer Audit (NBCA) and the English Hospital Episode Statistics (HES), an administrative database of all admissions to English National Health Service hospitals, which includes data on mode of admission. METHODS: We identified all adults included in the NBCA with a primary diagnosis of bowel cancer, excluding cancer of the appendix, between August 2007 and July 2011 whose record could be linked to HES. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR) for an emergency admission for colorectal cancer. All risk factors were adjusted for cancer site and calendar year. RESULTS: 97,909 adults were identified with a primary diagnosis of bowel cancer and 82,777 patients could be linked to HES. Patients who were older, female, of a non-white ethnic background, and more socioeconomically deprived, and those with dementia or cardiac, neurologic and liver disease had an increased risk of presenting as an emergency admission. The strongest risk factors were age (90 compared with 70 years: OR 2.99, 95% CI 2.84 to 3.15), dementia (OR 2.46, 2.18 to 2.79), and liver disease (OR 1.87, 1.69 to 2.08). CONCLUSIONS: Our study identifies risk factors that may impair health-seeking behaviour and access to healthcare. An earlier recognition of symptoms in patients with these risk factors may contribute to better outcomes.

A population-based cohort study of the effect of Caesarean section on subsequent fertility.

STUDY QUESTION: Is there an association between Caesarean section and subsequent fertility? SUMMARY ANSWER: There is no or only a slight effect of Caesarean section on future fertility. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Previous studies have reported that delivery by a Caesarean section is associated with fewer subsequent pregnancies and longer inter-pregnancy intervals. The interpretation of these findings is difficult because of significant weaknesses in study designs and analytical methods, notably the potential effect of the indication for Caesarean section on subsequent delivery. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: Retrospective cohort study of 1 047 644 first births to low-risk women using routinely collected, national administrative data of deliveries in English maternity units between 1 April 2000 and 31 March 2012. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Primiparous women aged 15-40 years who had a singleton, term, live birth in the English National Health Service were included. Women with high-risk pregnancies involving placenta praevia, pre-eclampsia, eclampsia (gestational or pre-existing), hypertension or diabetes were excluded from the main analysis. Kaplan-Meier analyses and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the effect of mode of delivery on time to subsequent birth, adjusted for age, ethnicity, socio-economic deprivation and year of index delivery. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Among low-risk primiparous women, 224 024 (21.4%) were delivered by Caesarean section. The Kaplan-Meier estimate of the subsequent birth rate at 10 years for the cohort was 74.7%. Compared with vaginal delivery, subsequent birth rates were marginally lower after elective Caesarean for breech (adjusted hazard ratio, HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.98). Larger effects were observed after elective Caesarean for other indications (adjusted HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.78-0.83), and emergency Caesarean (adjusted HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.90-0.93). The effect was smallest for elective Caesarean for breech, and this was not statistically significant in women younger than 30 years of age (adjusted HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.96-1.01). LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: We used birth cohorts from maternity units with good quality parity information. The data are likely to be nationally representative because the characteristics of the deliveries in included and omitted units were similar. There may be residual bias in our adjusted results due to unmeasured maternal factors such as obesity and voluntary absence of conception. Any residual bias would lead to an overestimate of the effect of Caesarean section on fertility, and the true effect is therefore likely to be smaller than the effect reported in our study. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our results provide strong evidence that there is no or only a slight effect of Caesarean section on future fertility. The clinical and social circumstances leading to the Caesarean section have a greater effect on future fertility than the Caesarean section itself. This finding is important in light of rising Caesarean section rates. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): IG-U is supported by the Lindsay Stewart R&D Centre, Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists, UK. The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: n/a.

Vaginal birth after caesarean section: a cohort study investigating factors associated with its uptake and success.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the demographic and obstetric factors associated with the uptake and success rate of vaginal birth after caesarean section (VBAC). DESIGN: Cohort study using data from Hospital Episode Statistics. SETTING: English National Health Service. POPULATION: Women whose first birth resulted in a live singleton delivery by caesarean section between 1 April 2004 and 31 March 2011, and who had a second birth before 31 March 2012. METHODS: Logistic regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (OR). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Attempted and successful VBAC. RESULTS: Among the 143,970 women in the cohort, 75,086 (52.2%) attempted a VBAC for their second birth. Younger women, those of non-white ethnicity and those living in a more deprived area had higher rates of attempted VBAC. Overall, 47,602 women (63.4%) who attempted a VBAC had a successful vaginal birth. Younger women and women of white ethnicity had higher success rates. Black women had a particularly low success rate (OR, 0.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.50-0.57). Women who had an emergency caesarean section in their first birth also had a lower VBAC success rate, particularly those with a history of failed induction of labour (OR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.53-0.67). CONCLUSION: In this national cohort, just over one-half of women with a primary caesarean section who were eligible for a trial of labour attempted a VBAC for their second birth. Of these, almost two-thirds successfully achieved a vaginal delivery.