Adolescents' Perceptions of Household Chaos Predict Their Adult Mental Health: A Twin-Difference Longitudinal Cohort Study.

This study tested whether adolescents who perceived less household chaos in their family's home than their same-aged, same-sex sibling achieved more favorable developmental outcomes in young adulthood, independent of parent-reported household chaos and family-level confounding. Data came from 4,732 families from the Twins Early Development Study, a longitudinal, U.K.-population representative cohort study of families with twins born in 1994 through 1996 in England and Wales. Adolescents who reported experiencing greater household chaos than their sibling at the age of 16 years suffered significantly poorer mental-health outcomes at the age of 23 years, independent of family-level confounding. Mental-health predictions from perceived household chaos at earlier ages were not significant, and neither were predictions for other developmental outcomes in young adulthood, including socioeconomic status indicators, sexual risk taking, cannabis use, and conflict with the law. The findings suggest that altering children's subjective perceptions of their rearing environments may help improve their adult mental health.

The new genetics of intelligence.

Intelligence - the ability to learn, reason and solve problems - is at the forefront of behavioural genetic research. Intelligence is highly heritable and predicts important educational, occupational and health outcomes better than any other trait. Recent genome-wide association studies have successfully identified inherited genome sequence differences that account for 20% of the 50% heritability of intelligence. These findings open new avenues for research into the causes and consequences of intelligence using genome-wide polygenic scores that aggregate the effects of thousands of genetic variants.

Psychotic experiences and negative symptoms from adolescence to emerging adulthood: developmental trajectories and associations with polygenic scores and childhood characteristics.

BACKGROUND: Psychotic experiences and negative symptoms (PENS) are common in non-clinical populations. PENS are associated with adverse outcomes, particularly when they persist. Little is known about the trajectories of PENS dimensions in young people, nor about the precursory factors associated with these trajectories. METHODS: We conducted growth mixture modelling of paranoia, hallucinations, and negative symptoms across ages 16, 17, and 22 in a community sample (N = 12 049-12 652). We then described the emergent trajectory classes through their associations with genome-wide polygenic scores (GPS) for psychiatric and educational phenotypes, and earlier childhood characteristics. RESULTS: Three trajectory classes emerged for paranoia, two for hallucinations, and two for negative symptoms. Across PENS, GPS for clinical help-seeking, major depressive disorder, and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder were associated with increased odds of being in the most elevated trajectory class (OR 1.07-1.23). Lower education GPS was associated with the most elevated trajectory class for hallucinations and negative symptoms (OR 0.77-0.91). Conversely for paranoia, higher education GPS was associated with the most elevated trajectory class (OR 1.25). Trajectory class associations were not significant for schizophrenia, obsessive-compulsive disorder, bipolar disorder, or anorexia GPS. Emotional/behaviour problems and life events in childhood were associated with increased odds of being in the most elevated trajectory class across PENS. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest latent heterogeneity in the development of paranoia, hallucinations, and negative symptoms in young people that is associated with specific polygenic scores and childhood characteristics.

Polygenic scores: prediction versus explanation.

During the past decade, polygenic scores have become a fast-growing area of research in the behavioural sciences. The ability to directly assess people's genetic propensities has transformed research by making it possible to add genetic predictors of traits to any study. The value of polygenic scores in the behavioural sciences rests on using inherited DNA differences to predict, from birth, common disorders and complex traits in unrelated individuals in the population. This predictive power of polygenic scores does not require knowing anything about the processes that lie between genes and behaviour. It also does not mandate disentangling the extent to which the prediction is due to assortative mating, genotype-environment correlation, or even population stratification. Although bottom-up explanation from genes to brain to behaviour will remain the long-term goal of the behavioural sciences, prediction is also a worthy achievement because it has immediate practical utility for identifying individuals at risk and is the necessary first step towards explanation. A high priority for research must be to increase the predictive power of polygenic scores to be able to use them as an early warning system to prevent problems.

Explaining the influence of non-shared environment (NSE) on symptoms of behaviour problems from preschool to adulthood: mind the missing NSE gap.

BACKGROUND: Individual differences in symptoms of behaviour problems in childhood and adolescence are not primarily due to nature or nurture - another substantial source of variance is non-shared environment (NSE). However, few specific environmental factors have been found to account for these NSE estimates. This creates a 'missing NSE' gap analogous to the 'missing heritability' gap, which refers to the shortfall in identifying DNA differences responsible for heritability. We assessed the extent to which variance in behaviour problem symptoms during the first two decades of life can be accounted for by measured NSE effects after controlling for genetics and shared environment. METHODS: The sample included 4,039 pairs of twins in the Twins Early Development Study whose environments and symptoms of behaviour problems were assessed in preschool, childhood, adolescence and early adulthood via parent, teacher and self-reports. Twin-specific environments were assessed via parent-reports, including early life adversity, parental feelings, parental discipline and classroom environment. Multivariate longitudinal twin model-fitting was employed to estimate the variance in behaviour problem symptoms at each age that could be predicted by environmental measures at the previous age. RESULTS: On average across childhood, adolescence and adulthood, parent-rated NSE composite measures accounted for 3.4% of the reliable NSE variance (1.0% of the total variance) in parent-rated, symptoms of behaviour problems, 0.5% (0.1%) in teacher-rated symptoms and 0.9% (0.5%) in self-rated symptoms after controlling for genetics, shared environment and error of measurement. Cumulatively across development, our parent-rated NSE measures in preschool, childhood and adolescence predicted 4.7% of the NSE variance (2.0% of the total variance) in parent-rated and 0.3% (0.2%) in self-rated behaviour problem symptoms in adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: The missing NSE gap between variance explained by measured environments and total NSE variance is large. Home and classroom environments are more likely to influence behaviour problem symptoms via genetics than via NSE.

The developmental interplay between the p-factor of psychopathology and the g-factor of intelligence from age 7 through 16 years.

Intelligence and mental health are the core pillars of individual adaptation, growth, and opportunity. Here, we charted across childhood and adolescence the developmental interplay between the p-factor of psychopathology, which captures the experience of symptoms across the spectrum of psychiatric disorders, and the g-factor of general intelligence that describes the ability to think, reason, and learn.Our preregistered analyses included 7,433 twin pairs from the Twins Early Development Study (TEDS), who were born 1994 to 1996 in England and Wales. At the ages 7, 9, 12, and 16 years, the twins completed two to four intelligence tests, and multi-informant measures (i.e., self-, parent- and teacher-rated) of psychopathology were collected.Independent of their cross-sectional correlations, p- and g-factors were linked by consistent, bidirectional, and negative cross-lagged paths across childhood and adolescence (from -.07 to -.13 with 95% CIs from -.03 to -.15). The cross-lagged paths from intelligence to psychopathology were largely due to genetic influences, but the paths from psychopathology to intelligence were driven by environmental factors, and increasingly so with age.Our findings suggest that intelligence and psychopathology are developmentally intertwined due to fluctuating etiological processes. Understanding the interplay of g- and p-factors is key for improving children's developmental outcomes.

Personality, intelligence, and academic achievement: Charting their developmental interplay.

OBJECTIVE: Although intelligence and personality traits have long been recognized as key predictors of students' academic achievement, little is known about their longitudinal and reciprocal associations. Here, we charted the developmental interplay of intelligence, personality (Big Five) and academic achievement in 3880 German secondary school students, who were assessed four times between the ages 11 and 14 years (i.e., in grades 5, 6, 7, and 8). METHOD: We fitted random intercept cross-lagged panel models (RI-CLPs) to investigate reciprocal within-person associations between (a) academic achievement and intelligence, (b) academic achievement and personality, as well as (c) intelligence and personality. RESULTS: The results revealed negative within-person associations between Conscientiousness and Extraversion assessed at the first wave of measurement and intelligence assessed at the second wave. None of the reciprocal personality-achievement associations attained statistical significance. Academic achievement and intelligence showed reciprocal within-person relations, with the strongest coefficients found for achievement longitudinally predicting intelligence. CONCLUSIONS: Our work contributes to developmental theorizing on interrelations between personality, intelligence, and academic achievement, as well as to within-person conceptualizations in personality research.

Multivariable G-E interplay in the prediction of educational achievement.

Polygenic scores are increasingly powerful predictors of educational achievement. It is unclear, however, how sets of polygenic scores, which partly capture environmental effects, perform jointly with sets of environmental measures, which are themselves heritable, in prediction models of educational achievement. Here, for the first time, we systematically investigate gene-environment correlation (rGE) and interaction (GxE) in the joint analysis of multiple genome-wide polygenic scores (GPS) and multiple environmental measures as they predict tested educational achievement (EA). We predict EA in a representative sample of 7,026 16-year-olds, with 20 GPS for psychiatric, cognitive and anthropometric traits, and 13 environments (including life events, home environment, and SES) measured earlier in life. Environmental and GPS predictors were modelled, separately and jointly, in penalized regression models with out-of-sample comparisons of prediction accuracy, considering the implications that their interplay had on model performance. Jointly modelling multiple GPS and environmental factors significantly improved prediction of EA, with cognitive-related GPS adding unique independent information beyond SES, home environment and life events. We found evidence for rGE underlying variation in EA (rGE = .38; 95% CIs = .30, .45). We estimated that 40% (95% CIs = 31%, 50%) of the polygenic scores effects on EA were mediated by environmental effects, and in turn that 18% (95% CIs = 12%, 25%) of environmental effects were accounted for by the polygenic model, indicating genetic confounding. Lastly, we did not find evidence that GxE effects significantly contributed to multivariable prediction. Our multivariable polygenic and environmental prediction model suggests widespread rGE and unsystematic GxE contributions to EA in adolescence.

Does age moderate the influence of early life language experiences? A Naturalistic home observation study.

We explored if children's age moderated associations between their early life language experiences and their linguistic and cognitive skills. For 107 British children, aged 24 to 48 months, and their families, we collected 3 day-long audio-recordings of their naturalistic home environments (M = 15.06 h per day, SD = 1.87). Children's cognitive ability was assessed by parent-ratings and with a cognitive testing booklet that children completed at home. We found that the quantity, lexical diversity and vocabulary sophistication of adult speech were associated with children's linguistic and cognitive skills. However, these associations were not moderated by children's age. Our findings suggest that the influence of early life language experience is not differentiated at age 24 to 48 months, at least in the current sample.

Predicting Alcohol Use From Genome-Wide Polygenic Scores, Environmental Factors, and Their Interactions in Young Adulthood.

OBJECTIVE: Alcohol use during emerging adulthood is associated with adverse life outcomes, but its risk factors are not well known. Here, we predicted alcohol use in 3153 young adults aged 22 years from a) genome-wide polygenic scores (GPS) based on genome-wide association studies for the target phenotypes number of drinks per week and Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test scores, b) 30 environmental factors, and c) their interactions (i.e., G × E effects). METHODS: Data were collected from 1994 to 2018 as a part of the UK Twins Early Development Study. RESULTS: GPS accounted for up to 1.9% of the variance in alcohol use (i.e., Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test score), whereas the 30 measures of environmental factors together accounted for 21.1%. The 30 GPS by environment interactions did not explain any additional variance, and none of the interaction terms exceeded the significance threshold after correcting for multiple testing. CONCLUSIONS: GPS and some environmental factors significantly predicted alcohol use in young adulthood, but we observed no GPS by environment interactions in our study.

Pathfinder: a gamified measure to integrate general cognitive ability into the biological, medical, and behavioural sciences.

Genome-wide association (GWA) studies have uncovered DNA variants associated with individual differences in general cognitive ability (g), but these are far from capturing heritability estimates obtained from twin studies. A major barrier to finding more of this 'missing heritability' is assessment--the use of diverse measures across GWA studies as well as time and the cost of assessment. In a series of four studies, we created a 15-min (40-item), online, gamified measure of g that is highly reliable (alpha = 0.78; two-week test-retest reliability = 0.88), psychometrically valid and scalable; we called this new measure Pathfinder. In a fifth study, we administered this measure to 4,751 young adults from the Twins Early Development Study. This novel g measure, which also yields reliable verbal and nonverbal scores, correlated substantially with standard measures of g collected at previous ages (r ranging from 0.42 at age 7 to 0.57 at age 16). Pathfinder showed substantial twin heritability (0.57, 95% CIs = 0.43, 0.68) and SNP heritability (0.37, 95% CIs = 0.04, 0.70). A polygenic score computed from GWA studies of five cognitive and educational traits accounted for 12% of the variation in g, the strongest DNA-based prediction of g to date. Widespread use of this engaging new measure will advance research not only in genomics but throughout the biological, medical, and behavioural sciences.

Using DNA to predict behaviour problems from preschool to adulthood.

BACKGROUND: One goal of the DNA revolution is to predict problems in order to prevent them. We tested here if the prediction of behaviour problems from genome-wide polygenic scores (GPS) can be improved by creating composites across ages and across raters and by using a multi-GPS approach that includes GPS for adult psychiatric disorders as well as for childhood behaviour problems. METHOD: Our sample included 3,065 genotyped unrelated individuals from the Twins Early Development Study who were assessed longitudinally for hyperactivity, conduct, emotional problems, and peer problems as rated by parents, teachers, and children themselves. GPS created from 15 genome-wide association studies were used separately and jointly to test the prediction of behaviour problems composites (general behaviour problems, externalising, and internalising) across ages (from age 2 to 21) and across raters in penalised regression models. Based on the regression weights, we created multi-trait GPS reflecting the best prediction of behaviour problems. We compared GPS prediction to twin heritability using the same sample and measures. RESULTS: Multi-GPS prediction of behaviour problems increased from <2% of the variance for observed traits to up to 6% for cross-age and cross-rater composites. Twin study estimates of heritability, although to a lesser extent, mirrored patterns of multi-GPS prediction as they increased from <40% to 83%. CONCLUSIONS: The ability of GPS to predict behaviour problems can be improved by using multiple GPS, cross-age composites and cross-rater composites, although the effect sizes remain modest, up to 6%. Our approach can be used in any genotyped sample to create multi-trait GPS predictors of behaviour problems that will be more predictive than polygenic scores based on a single age, rater, or GPS.

Gene-environment interaction using polygenic scores: Do polygenic scores for psychopathology moderate predictions from environmental risk to behavior problems?

The DNA revolution has energized research on interactions between genes and environments (GxE) by creating indices of G (polygenic scores) that are powerful predictors of behavioral traits. Here, we test the extent to which polygenic scores for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and neuroticism moderate associations between parent reports of their children's environmental risk (E) at ages 3 and 4 and teacher ratings of behavior problems (hyperactivity/inattention, conduct problems, emotional symptoms, and peer relationship problems) at ages 7, 9 and 12. The sampling frame included up to 6687 twins from the Twins Early Development Study. Our analyses focused on relative effect sizes of G, E and GxE in predicting behavior problems. G, E and GxE predicted up to 2%, 2% and 0.4%, respectively, of the variance in externalizing behavior problems (hyperactivity/inattention and conduct problems) across ages 7, 9 and 12, with no clear developmental trends. G and E predictions of emotional symptoms and peer relationship problems were weaker. A quarter (12 of 48) of our tests of GxE were nominally significant (p = .05). Increasing the predictive power of G and E would enhance the search for GxE.

Genetic Correlates of Psychological Responses to the COVID-19 Crisis in Young Adult Twins in Great Britain.

We investigated how the COVID-19 crisis and the extraordinary experience of lockdown affected young adults in England and Wales psychologically. One month after lockdown commenced (T2), we assessed 30 psychological and behavioural traits in more than 4000 twins in their mid-twenties and compared their responses to the same traits assessed in 2018 (T1). Mean changes from T1 to T2 were modest and inconsistent. Contrary to the hypothesis that major environmental changes related to COVID-19 would result in increased variance in psychological and behavioural traits, we found that the magnitude of individual differences did not change from T1 to T2. Twin analyses revealed that while genetic factors accounted for about half of the reliable variance at T1 and T2, they only accounted for ~ 15% of individual differences in change from T1 to T2, and that nonshared environmental factors played a major role in psychological and behavioural changes. Shared environmental influences had negligible impact on T1, T2 or T2 change. Genetic factors correlated on average .86 between T1 and T2 and accounted for over half of the phenotypic stability, as would be expected for a 2-year interval even without the major disruption of lockdown. We conclude that the first month of lockdown has not resulted in major psychological or attitudinal shifts in young adults, nor in major changes in the genetic and environmental origins of these traits. Genetic influences on the modest psychological and behavioural changes are likely to be the result of gene-environment correlation not interaction.

School quality ratings are weak predictors of students' achievement and well-being.

BACKGROUND: In England, all state-funded schools are inspected by an independent government agency, the Office for Standards in Education, Children's Services and Skills (Ofsted). Inspections aim to hold schools accountable and to promote the improvement of education, with the results made available to the public. Ofsted reports intend to index school quality, but their influence on students' individual outcomes has not been previously studied. The aim of the current study was to explore the extent to which school quality, as indexed by Ofsted ratings, is associated with students' educational achievement, well-being and school engagement. METHODS: We use an England population-based sample of 4,391 individuals, for whom school performance at age 11 and GCSE grades at age 16 were accessed from the National Pupil Database, and who completed measures of well-being and school engagement at age 16. RESULTS: We found that Ofsted ratings of secondary school quality accounted for 4% of the variance in students' educational achievement at age 16, which was further reduced to 1% of the variance after we accounted for prior school performance at age 11 and family socioeconomic status. Furthermore, Ofsted ratings were weak predictors of school engagement and student well-being, with an average correlation of .03. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that differences in school quality, as indexed by Ofsted ratings, have little relation to students' individual outcomes. Accordingly, our results challenge the usefulness of Ofsted ratings as guides for parents and students when choosing secondary schools.

Predicting educational achievement from genomic measures and socioeconomic status.

The two best predictors of children's educational achievement available from birth are parents' socioeconomic status (SES) and, recently, children's inherited DNA differences that can be aggregated in genome-wide polygenic scores (GPS). Here, we chart for the first time the developmental interplay between these two predictors of educational achievement at ages 7, 11, 14 and 16 in a sample of almost 5,000 UK school children. We show that the prediction of educational achievement from both GPS and SES increases steadily throughout the school years. Using latent growth curve models, we find that GPS and SES not only predict educational achievement in the first grade but they also account for systematic changes in achievement across the school years. At the end of compulsory education at age 16, GPS and SES, respectively, predict 14% and 23% of the variance of educational achievement. Analyses of the extremes of GPS and SES highlight their influence and interplay: In children who have high GPS and come from high SES families, 77% go to university, whereas 21% of children with low GPS and from low SES backgrounds attend university. We find that the associations of GPS and SES with educational achievement are primarily additive, suggesting that their joint influence is particularly dramatic for children at the extreme ends of the distribution.

Preschool Verbal and Nonverbal Ability Mediate the Association Between Socioeconomic Status and School Performance.

We compared the extent to which the long-term influence of family socioeconomic status (SES) on children's school performance from age 7 through 16 years was mediated by their preschool verbal and nonverbal ability. In 661 British children, who completed 17 researcher-administered ability tests at age 4.5 years, SES correlated more strongly with verbal than nonverbal ability (.39 vs. .26). Verbal ability mediated about half of the association between SES and school performance at age 7, while nonverbal ability accounted for a third of the link. Only SES, but not verbal or nonverbal ability, was associated with changes in school performance from age 7 to 16. We found that SES-related differences in school performance are only partly transmitted through children's preschool verbal abilities.

Monozygotic twin differences in school performance are stable and systematic.

School performance is one of the most stable and heritable psychological characteristics. Notwithstanding, monozygotic twins (MZ), who have identical genotypes, differ in school performance. These MZ differences result from non-shared environments that do not contribute to the similarity within twin pairs. Because to date few non-shared environmental factors have been reliably associated with MZ differences in school performance, they are thought to be idiosyncratic and due to chance, suggesting that the effect of non-shared environments on MZ differences are age- and trait-specific. In a sample of 2768 MZ twin pairs, we found first that MZ differences in school performance were moderately stable from age 12 through 16, with differences at the ages 12 and 14 accounting for 20% of the variance in MZ differences at age 16. Second, MZ differences in school performance correlated positively with MZ differences across 16 learning-related variables, including measures of intelligence, personality and school attitudes, with the twin who scored higher on one also scoring higher on the other measures. Finally, MZ differences in the 16 learning-related variables accounted for 22% of the variance in MZ differences in school performance at age 16. These findings suggest that, unlike for other psychological domains, non-shared environmental factors affect school performance in systematic ways that have long-term and generalist influence. Our findings should motivate the search for non-shared environmental factors responsible for the stable and systematic effects on children's differences in school performance. A video abstract of this article can be viewed at: https://youtu.be/0bw2Fl_HGq0.

Feeling low, thinking slow? Associations between situational cues, mood and cognitive function.

Within-person changes in mood, which are triggered by situational cues, for example someone's location or company, are thought to affect contemporaneous cognitive function. To test this hypothesis, data were collected over 6 months with the smartphone application (app) moo-Q that prompted users at random times to rate their mood and complete 3 short cognitive tests. Out of 24,313 people across 154 countries, who downloaded the app, 770 participants submitted 10 or more valid moo-Q responses (mean = 23; SD = 18; range 10-207). Confirming previous research, consistent patterns of association emerged for 6 different situation cues with mood and cognitive function: For example, being alone rather than with others when completing the app resulted in worse mood but better cognitive task performance. Notwithstanding, changes in mood and cognitive function were not coupled. The advantages and challenges of using smartphone technology for studying mood and cognitive function are discussed.

Genetic Influence on Intergenerational Educational Attainment.

Using twin (6,105 twin pairs) and genomic (5,825 unrelated individuals taken from the twin sample) analyses, we tested for genetic influences on the parent-offspring correspondence in educational attainment. Genetics accounted for nearly half of the variance in intergenerational educational attainment. A genomewide polygenic score (GPS) for years of education was also associated with intergenerational educational attainment: The highest and lowest GPS means were found for offspring in stably educated families (i.e., who had taken A Levels and had a university-educated parent; M = 0.43, SD = 0.97) and stably uneducated families (i.e., who had not taken A Levels and had no university-educated parent; M = -0.19, SD = 0.97). The average GPSs fell in between for children who were upwardly mobile (i.e., who had taken A Levels but had no university-educated parent; M = 0.05, SD = 0.96) and children who were downwardly mobile (i.e., who had not taken A Levels but had a university-educated parent; M = 0.28, SD = 1.03). Genetic influences on intergenerational educational attainment can be viewed as an index of equality of educational opportunity.