Trading HIV for sheep: Risky sexual behavior and the response of female sex workers to Tabaski in Senegal.

We use a cohort of female sex workers (FSWs) in Senegal to show how large anticipated economic shocks lead to increased risky sexual behavior. Exploiting the exogenous timing of interviews, we study the effect of Tabaski, the most important Islamic festival celebrated in Senegal, in which most households purchase an expensive animal for sacrifice. Condom use, measured robustly via the list experiment, falls by between 27.3 percentage points (pp) (65.5%) and 43.1 pp (22.7%) in the 9 days before Tabaski, or a maximum of 49.5 pp (76%) in the 7 day period preceding Tabaski. The evidence suggests the economic pressures from Tabaski are key to driving the behavior change observed through the price premium for condomless sex. Those most exposed to the economic pressure from Tabaski were unlikely to be using condoms at all in the week before the festival. Our findings show that Tabaski leads to increased risky behaviors for FSWs, a key population at high risk of HIV infection, for at least 1 week every year and has implications for FSWs in all countries celebrating Tabaski or similar festivals. Because of the scale, frequency, and size of the behavioral response to shocks of this type, policy should be carefully designed to protect vulnerable women against anticipated shocks.

The impact of COVID-related economic shocks on household mental health in Pakistan.

We combine data collected just prior to the unfolding of COVID-19 with follow-up data from July 2020 to document the adverse economic effects of the pandemic and resulting impact on parental and child mental well-being in peri-urban Pakistan. 22% of the households in our sample are affected by job loss, with monthly income down 38% on average. Our difference-in-difference results show that job loss is associated with a 0.88 standard deviation (SD) increase in adult mental distress scores (K10), a 0.43 SD reduction in a Hope index of children's aspirations, agency and future pathways, and a 0.39 SD increase in children's depression symptoms. In addition, we observe higher levels of parental stress and anger reported by children, as well as an increase in reported prevalence of domestic violence. Overall, we document that the pandemic has disproportionately and negatively affected the economic and mental well-being of the most vulnerable households in our sample.

Regional inequalities: causes and cures.

Significant regional inequalities of income and wealth exist in every Western European country and in North America, but their extent varies from country to country. In both Europe and the US, it is generally thought that they tended to narrow from the early 1900s until about 1980, since when they have widened. This widening has become associated with the rise of populism, while the Covid-19 crisis has thrown regional disadvantage into sharp relief. This article discusses measurement issues, traces developments over time, and explores the social and economic consequences of regional disparities. It describes the evolution of regional policy, and in particular the move to more localized approaches in Europe, analysing their strengths and weaknesses.

The impact of labour market shocks on mental health: evidence from the Covid-19 first wave.

In this study, we estimate the effect of a negative labour market shock on individuals' levels of stress, anxiety, and depression. We use a dataset collected during the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic, on a representative sample of citizens from Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, interviewed on three occasions. We measure stress, anxiety and depression and labour shocks using validated scales. Our research design is a standard difference-in-differences model: we leverage the differential timing of shocks to identify the impact on mental health. In our estimations, a negative labour shock increases the measure of stress, anxiety, and depression by 16% of a standard deviation computed from the baseline.

Early childhood stunting and later life outcomes: A longitudinal analysis.

Using longitudinal data from four countries-Ethiopia, India, Peru and Vietnam- we show that early childhood stunting is highly persistent as measured by the association between stunting status in early childhood and stunting status at age 15. Stunting in early childhood is associated with lower grade completion by age 22 and has a negative relationship with cognition as measured by math, language and reading scores at ages 8, 12 and 15. Stunting in early childhood is also associated with poorer subjective assessment of a child's health at age 15. Analyzing determinants, we show that lack of preventive care and economic shocks are associated with an increase in the probability of stunting in early childhood.

Financial Shocks and Financial Well-Being: What Builds Resiliency in Lower-Income Households?

Households in the U.S. regularly experience unexpected negative income or expense shocks, and low- and moderate-income households experience these shocks at disproportionately high rates. Relatively little is known about the impact these shocks have on households' subjective sense of financial well-being, and how access to different types of liquidity (e.g., liquid assets, credit cards, social resources, and income flows) can mitigate the impact of these shocks on subjective financial well-being. To address these gaps in the literature, this paper uses data from a two-wave survey administered to 3,911 low- and moderate-income tax filers in 2018. Applying a difference-in-difference analysis, we find that the experience of an income shock between survey waves was associated with a large decline in subjective financial well-being, while the experience of an expense shock was associated with a more modest decline. Relatively liquidity-constrained households tended to be more negatively impacted by shocks than their counterparts, though not all sources of liquidity were equally as effective in buffering households against shocks. The findings of this paper point to the need for policymakers and program administrators to develop tools that can facilitate access to different types of liquidity to offset different financial risks for households.

Mortality during Resource Booms and Busts.

Using national data on county-level mortality, coal mining, and shale development, we examine the effects of resource booms and busts on mortality in the United States. We find evidence that decreases in operating coal mines increased total all-cause mortality, non-drug mortality, and opioid overdose mortality, especially for counties with greater than 10 operating coal mines in 2000. Our model results for drug overdose mortality and opioid overdose mortality are sensitive to the panel's start year. For shale development, the shale boom is associated with increases in non-drug suicides but otherwise had little impact on mortality. Our findings suggest a potential role for job-training programs and the cultivation of local healthcare resources in regions suffering coal busts and suicide prevention in areas with shale development.

Mental health and life-course shocks in a low-income country: Evidence from Malawi.

Economic insecurity has been widely hypothesized to be an important determinant of mental health, but this relationship has not been well-documented in low-income countries. Using data from the Mature Adults Cohort of the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH-MAC), we investigate the association of negative economic shocks with mental health outcomes such as depression and anxiety among adults aged 45+ years living in a low-income country. Using fixed effects estimates that control for time-invariant unobserved individual heterogeneity, we find that increased economic instability caused by events such as death of a family member, yield loss, or income loss is positively associated with worse mental health outcomes as measured by the PHQ-9 and GAD-7 instruments. Our results suggest that costly economic events are a key component to worsening mental health in settings characterized by pervasive poverty and underscore the importance of mental health as a public health and development target.

Restarting "Normal" Life after Covid-19 and the Lockdown: Evidence from Spain, the United Kingdom, and Italy.

In this article, we examine the expectations of the economic outlook, fear of the future, and behavioural change during the first Covid-19 wave, for three European countries (Spain, the United Kingdom, and Italy) that have been severely hit. We use a novel dataset that we collected to monitor the three countries during the crisis. As outcome variables, we used expectations (e.g., economic outlook, labour market situation, recovery), fear (e.g., scenario of new outburst, economic depression, restriction to individual rights and freedom), and behavioural change across the following dimensions: savings, cultural consumption, social capital, and risky behaviour. We provide descriptive evidence that is representative of the population of interest, and we estimate the impact of exposure to shock occurred during the crisis on the same outcome variables, using matching techniques. Our main findings are the following: we detected systematically negative expectations regarding the future and the recovery, majoritarian fears of an economic depression, a new outbreak, and a permanent restriction on freedom, a reduction in saving and in social capital. Exposure to shocks decreased expected job prospects, increased withdrawal from accumulated savings, and reduced contacts with the network relevant to job advancement, whereas it had inconclusive effects over fears. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11205-021-02697-5.

Prenatal economic shocks and birth outcomes in UK cohort data.

We consider the effects of major prenatal economic shocks experienced by mothers on two indicators of newborn-infant health, birth weight and head circumference, using detailed microdata from the UK ALSPAC survey. Controlling for physiological and socioeconomic factors, an economic shock in the first 18 weeks of gestation lowers birth weight by 40-70 g and head circumference by 2-3 mm. We find evidence of transmission via poorer maternal health due to absolute material deprivation and tobacco and alcohol consumption, but not for the endocrinological effects of increased psychosocial anxiety. The fragile-male hypothesis holds for birth weight but not for head circumference, as predicted by recent theories on gender differences in prenatal development.

Measuring carbon emission sensitivity to economic shocks: a panel structural vector autoregression 1870-2016.

The study of the link between production, measured in gross domestic product and CO2 emissions, is a topic under intense research. Carbon emissions are moving together with economic shocks (high synchronicity), particularly at troughs and peaks of a business cycle. This research investigates the influence of economic shocks to carbon emissions. Previous studies do not provide a direct empirical evidence on the impact of economic shocks to carbon emissions that are available. We employ structural vector autoregression to explore the impact of economic shocks on carbon emissions in 20 advanced economies from 1870 to 2016. Our empirical results prove a strong, statistically significant connection between emissions and output with a coefficient of elasticity > 1. We identify a strong empirical link using panel structural vector autoregression between carbon emissions and real GDP growth per capita. Up to 40% of the fluctuations in CO2 emissions is explained by combined economic factors (output, population, oil prices, stock exchange). The findings further indicate that carbon emission is determined by energy policy (energy intensity, carbon intensity, relative costs of renewable energy). Our findings contribute to energy policy management, energy, and business cycle research to inspire novel research on energy cycles.

Children in Monetary Poor Households: Baseline and COVID-19 Impact for 2020 and 2021.

The impact of the global economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic will not affect all children equally: those in poorer households and children who are disadvantaged face the most serious consequences. As parents lose their jobs and incomes, the impact on children living in impoverished households must be measured. In this article, we assess the economic consequences of the pandemic on these children. Given that poorer families have a larger number of children than other families, the analysis first establishes the proportion of children living in monetary poor households, as defined by national standards, across developing countries. Then, using historical changes and trends of income distribution per country, the latest projections about economic decline due to the pandemic, and demographic information about the distribution of children by deciles, we estimate the expected increase in the number of children in monetary poor households in developing countries as of end of 2020 to be an additional 122-144 million and, at best, a moderate decline in these numbers by end of 2021.

HOW DO CHANGES IN INCOME, EMPLOYMENT AND HEALTH INSURANCE AFFECT FAMILY MENTAL HEALTH SPENDING?

Using eight two-year panels from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data for the period 2004 to 2012, we examine the effect of economic shocks on mental health spending by families with children. Estimating two-part expenditure models within the correlated random effects framework, we find that employment shocks have a greater impact on mental health spending than do income or health insurance shocks. Our estimates reveal that employment gains are associated with a lower likelihood of family mental health services utilization. By contrast employment losses are positively related to an increase in total family mental health. We do not detect a link between economic shocks and mental health spending on behalf of fathers.

How do health workers experience and cope with shocks? Learning from four fragile and conflict-affected health systems in Uganda, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe and Cambodia.

This article is grounded in a research programme which set out to understand how to rebuild health systems post-conflict. Four countries were studied-Uganda, Sierra Leone, Zimbabwe and Cambodia-which were at different distances from conflict and crisis, as well as having unique conflict stories. During the research process, the Ebola epidemic broke out in West Africa. Zimbabwe has continued to face a profound economic crisis. Within our research on health worker incentives, we captured insights from 128 life histories and in-depth interviews with a variety of staff that had remained in service. This article aims to draw together lessons from these contexts which can provide lessons for enhancing staff and therefore health system resilience in future, especially in similarly fragile and conflict-affected contexts. We examine the reported effects, both personal and professional, of the three different types of shock (conflicts, epidemics and prolonged political-economic crises), and how staff coped. We find that the impact of shocks and coping strategies are similar between conflict/post-conflict and epidemic contexts-particularly in relation to physical threats and psychosocial threats-while all three contexts create challenges and staff responses for working conditions and remuneration. Health staff showed considerable inventiveness and resilience, and also benefited from external assistance of various kinds, but there are important gaps which point to ways in which they should be better protected and supported in the future. Health systems are increasingly fragile and conflict-prone, and shocks are often prolonged or repeated. Resilience should not be taken for granted or used as an excuse for abandoning frontline health staff. Strategies should be in place at local, national and international levels to prepare for predictable crises of various sorts, rather than waiting for them to occur and responding belatedly, or relying on personal sacrifices by staff to keep services functioning.

Negative economic shocks and child schooling: Evidence from Rural Malawi.

This study investigates the impacts of negative economic shocks on child schooling in households of rural Malawi, one of the poorest countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Both individually-reported and community-level shocks are investigated. There is evidence that community level shocks negatively impact the school enrolment of children. The point estimates suggest that this effect is larger when shocks and school enrollment are reported by men as compared to women. But we cannot conclude with statistical confidence that the impact of idiosyncratic shocks is larger when reported by males than when reported by females. Similarly, although the point estimates suggest that the impact of community level shocks on the school enrolment of children is larger than that of idiosyncratic shocks, we cannot conclude with statistical significance that the impacts of community-level and idiosyncratic shocks are different.