Party affiliation predicts homeowners' decisions to install solar PV, but partisan gap wanes with improved economics of solar.

The perceived risk of climate change and the sense of urgency for an energy transition are both politically polarized, especially in the United States. Yet, we know relatively little about how political polarization affects consumer energy preferences and behaviors. Here, we use the case of residential solar photovoltaics (PV) in New York State to 1) measure the partisan gap in solar adoption rates and 2) test whether more favorable economics of solar PV mute the effect of political identity. Using household-level, longitudinal data that include nearly 63,000 completed residential PV projects, we find evidence of a partisan gap in PV adoption. Democratic homeowners are approximately 1.45 times as likely to adopt solar PV as Republican homeowners. Republicans' rate of adoption is the lowest of all measured groups, behind Independents, unaffiliated voters, and homeowners not registered to vote. Crucially, however, Republicans in our sample appear to be the most attuned to the changing economics and financing options of solar PV. Our estimates suggest that 1) as homeowners' electricity rate increases relative to its long-run average, the adoption gap between Democ-rats and Republicans narrows, 2) that Republican PV adopters obtain systems with higher expected economic value, and 3) Republicans take greater advantage of alternative financing models, like leases and power purchase agreements, especially when the upfront costs of solar are high. The results demonstrate that political identity affects consumers' participation in the energy transition, but local context, including the local economics of solar, may mitigate the effect of personal politics.

Assessing the distribution of employment vulnerability to the energy transition using employment carbon footprints.

As the world moves away from fossil fuels, there is growing recognition of the need for a just transition of those working in carbon-intensive industries and for policy to support this transition. While recent policies such as the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) have begun to incorporate support for energy-intensive regions, little work has thoroughly investigated which communities are most vulnerable to economic disruption in the energy transition and therefore require policy support. This paper analyzes the distribution of employment vulnerability in the U.S. by calculating the average "employment carbon footprint" of close-to every job in the U.S. economy at high geographic and sectoral granularity. The measure considers employment vulnerability across the entire economy and captures both fossil fuel consumption and production effects, with the sectors covered in our analysis accounting for 86% of total U.S. employment and 94% of U.S. carbon emissions outside of the transportation sector. We find that existing efforts to identify at-risk communities both in the literature and the IRA exclude regions of high employment vulnerability, and thereby risk leaving these communities behind in the energy transition. This work underscores the importance of proactive and continuous measures of employment vulnerability, presents policymakers with much-needed data to incorporate such measures into just transition policy and makes the case for place-based policy approaches when considering how best to support communities through the energy transition.

Meeting the challenges of large-scale carbon storage and hydrogen production.

There is a pressing need to rapidly, and massively, scale up negative carbon strategies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS). At the same time, large-scale CCS can enable ramp-up of large-scale hydrogen production, a key component of decarbonized energy systems. We argue here that the safest, and most practical strategy for dramatically increasing CO2 storage in the subsurface is to focus on regions where there are multiple partially depleted oil and gas reservoirs. Many of these reservoirs have adequate storage capacity, are geologically and hydrodynamically well understood and are less prone to injection-induced seismicity than saline aquifers. Once a CO2 storage facility is up and running, it can be used to store CO2 from multiple sources. Integration of CCS with hydrogen production appears to be an economically viable strategy for dramatically reducing greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade, particularly in oil- and gas-producing countries where there are numerous depleted reservoirs that are potentially suitable for large-scale carbon storage.

Capacity factors for electrical power generation from renewable and nonrenewable sources.

Given the dire consequences of climate change and the war in Ukraine, decarbonization of electrical power systems around the world must be accomplished, while avoiding recurring blackouts. A good understanding of performance and reliability of different power sources underpins this endeavor. As an energy transition involves different societal sectors, we must adopt a simple and efficient way of communicating the transition's key indicators. Capacity factor (CF) is a direct measure of the efficacy of a power generation system and of the costs of power produced. Since the year 2000, the explosive expansion of solar PV and wind power made their CFs more reliable. Knowing the long-time average CFs of different electricity sources allows one to calculate directly the nominal capacity required to replace the current fossil fuel mix for electricity generation or expansion to meet future demand. CFs are straightforwardly calculated, but they are rooted in real performance, not in modeling or wishful thinking. Based on the current average CFs, replacing 1 W of fossil electricity generation capacity requires installation of 4 W solar PV or 2 W of wind power. An expansion of the current energy mix requires installing 8.8 W of solar PV or 4.3 W of wind power.

Carbon mineralization with concurrent critical metal recovery from olivine.

Carbon dioxide utilization for enhanced metal recovery (EMR) during mineralization has been recently developed as part of CCUS (carbon capture, utilization, and storage). This paper describes fundamental studies on integrating CO2 mineralization and concurrent selective metal extraction from natural olivine. Nearly 90% of nickel and cobalt extraction and mineral carbonation efficiency are achieved in a highly selective, single-step process. Direct aqueous mineral carbonation releases Ni2+ and Co2+ into aqueous solution for subsequent recovery, while Mg2+ and Fe2+ simultaneously convert to stable mineral carbonates for permanent CO2 storage. This integrated process can be completed in neutral aqueous solution. Introduction of a metal-complexing ligand during mineral carbonation aids the highly selective extraction of Ni and Co over Fe and Mg. The ligand must have higher stability for Ni-/Co- complex ions compared with the Fe(II)-/Mg- complex ions and divalent metal carbonates. This single-step process with a suitable metal-complexing ligand is robust and utilizes carbonation processes under various kinetic regimes. This fundamental study provides a framework for further development and successful application of direct aqueous mineral carbonation with concurrent EMR. The enhanced metal extraction and CO2 mineralization process may have implications for the clean energy transition, CO2 storage and utilization, and development of new critical metal resources.

Rare Earth Element Adsorption to Clay Minerals: Mechanistic Insights and Implications for Recovery from Secondary Sources.

The energy transition will have significant mineral demands and there is growing interest in recovering critical metals, including rare earth elements (REE), from secondary sources in aqueous and sedimentary environments. However, the role of clays in REE transport and deposition in these settings remains understudied. This work investigated REE adsorption to the clay minerals illite and kaolinite through pH adsorption experiments and extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS). Clay type, pH, and ionic strength (IS) affected adsorption, with decreased adsorption under acidic pH and elevated IS. Illite had a higher adsorption capacity than kaolinite; however, >95% adsorption was achieved at pH ∼7.5 regardless of IS or clay. These results were used to develop a surface complexation model with the derived binding constants used to predict REE speciation in the presence of competing sorbents. This demonstrated that clays become increasingly important as pH increases, and EXAFS modeling showed that REE can exist as both inner- and outer-sphere complexes. Together, this indicated that clays can be an important control on the transport and enrichment of REE in sedimentary systems. These findings can be applied to identify settings to target for resource extraction or to predict REE transport and fate as a contaminant.

Rare Earth Element Speciation in Coal and Coal Combustion Byproducts: A XANES and EXAFS Study.

Transitioning to a low-carbon economy, necessary to mitigate the impacts of anthropogenic climate change, will lead to a significant increase in demand for critical minerals such as rare earth elements (REE). Meeting these raw materials requirements will be challenging, so there is increasing interest in new sources of REE including coal combustion byproducts (CCBs). Extraction of REE from CCBs can be advantageous as it involves reusing a waste product, thereby contributing to the circular economy. While a growing body of literature reports on the abundance of REE in CCBs globally, studies examining the key factors which control their recovery, including speciation and mode of occurrence, are lacking. This study employed synchrotron-based X-ray absorption spectroscopy to probe the speciation and local bonding environment of yttrium in coals and their associated CCBs. Linear Combination Fitting identified silicate and phosphate minerals as the dominant REE-bearing phases. Taken together with the results of extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) curve fitting, we find there is minimal transformation in the REE host phase during combustion, indicating it is transferred in bulk from the coals to the CCBs. Accordingly, these findings can be incorporated into the development of an efficient, environmentally conscious recovery process.

How does new energy demonstration city pilot policy affect carbon dioxide emissions? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China.

Energy transition policies are of great significance in adjusting the structure of energy supply and demand and coping with climate change. The new energy demonstration city pilot (NEDCP) policy, as an important pilot project in China's energy transition process, lacks a scientific assessment of the carbon reduction effect of the NEDCP policy and an in-depth explanation of the mechanism of the NEDCP. Based on panel data of 209 Chinese cities at the prefectural and higher levels from 2007 to 2019, this study takes the NEDCP policy as a quasi-natural experiment, using a difference-in-differences model combined with firm-level data to identify the impact of the NEDCP policy on urban carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This study analyzes the impact of heterogeneity of urban characteristics on the policy effect from multiple perspectives, and further investigates its mechanism. The conclusions are shown in the following aspects. (1) The implementation of the NEDCP policy decreases urban CO2 emissions significantly. Meanwhile, a series of robustness tests, including the instrumental variables method, propensity score matching difference-in-differences method, placebo test, exclusion of policy interference test, and machine learning method, support this conclusion. (2) The NEDCP policy achieves carbon reduction effects mainly through scale and structure effects. (3) The results of the heterogeneity test show that the NEDCP policy is more effective in cities with higher administrative levels, energy-demanding cities, cities in the southeast of Hu-line, and cities with a higher degree of nationalization. Therefore, the Chinese government should summarize the implementation experience of the NEDCP policy and expand its scope of application. The evaluation of the NEDCP policy in China has important reference value for the energy transition of other developing countries.

Comparing expert elicitation and model-based probabilistic technology cost forecasts for the energy transition.

We conduct a systematic comparison of technology cost forecasts produced by expert elicitation methods and model-based methods. Our focus is on energy technologies due to their importance for energy and climate policy. We assess the performance of several forecasting methods by generating probabilistic technology cost forecasts rooted at various years in the past and then comparing these with observed costs in 2019. We do this for six technologies for which both observed and elicited data are available. The model-based methods use either deployment (Wright's law) or time (Moore's law) to forecast costs. We show that, overall, model-based forecasting methods outperformed elicitation methods. Their 2019 cost forecast ranges contained the observed values much more often than elicitations, and their forecast medians were closer to observed costs. However, all methods underestimated technological progress in almost all technologies, likely as a result of structural change across the energy sector due to widespread policies and social and market forces. We also produce forecasts of 2030 costs using the two types of methods for 10 energy technologies. We find that elicitations generally yield narrower uncertainty ranges than model-based methods. Model-based 2030 forecasts are lower for more modular technologies and higher for less modular ones. Future research should focus on further method development and validation to better reflect structural changes in the market and correlations across technologies.

Risks in the design of regional hydrogen hub systems: A review and commentary.

Early investments in regional hydrogen systems carry two distinct types of risk: (1) economic risk that projects will not be financially viable, resulting in stranded capital, and (2) environmental risk that projects will not deliver deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and through leaks, perhaps even contribute to climate change. This article systematically reviews the literature and performs analysis to describe both types of risk in the context of recent efforts in the United States and worldwide to support the development of "hydrogen hubs" or regional systems of hydrogen production and use. We review estimates of hydrogen production costs and projections of how future costs are likely to change over time for different production routes, environmental impacts related to hydrogen and methane leaks, and the availability and effectiveness of carbon capture and sequestration. Finally, we consider system-wide risks associated with evolving regional industrial structures, including job displacement and underinvestment in shared components, such as refueling. We conclude by suggesting a set of design principles that should be applied in developing early hydrogen hubs if they are to be a successful step toward creating a decarbonized energy system.

The dark side of climate policy uncertainty: Hindering energy transition by shaping environmental taxes effectiveness.

Climate policy uncertainty (CPU) may have an adverse impact on the environment by interfering with the effectiveness of environmental policies, but there is currently little evidence to support this indirect effect. By incorporating CPU into the transition function, this paper utilizes the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) to dynamically analyze how CPU affects the relationship between environmental taxes (ETR) and energy transition. When CPU exceeds the threshold, the promoting effect of ETR on energy transition weakens or reverses. The robustness of the main conclusions is demonstrated by establishing a PSTR estimator with the instrumental variable. This paper also constructs a counterfactual scenario, showing that CPU reduces the positive impact of ETR on renewable energy consumption and generation by 7.6% and 3.5%, respectively. Further analysis indicates that this negative effect arises because CPU likely increases investment risk, particularly for long-term green projects, thereby inhibiting the clean energy market and energy-related green technological innovation. Heterogeneity analysis find that the weakening effect of CPU on the effectiveness of ETR is stronger in countries with low energy resource endowment, high energy intensity, and lower economic development levels, underscoring the need for tailored policy approaches. This research emphasizes that for countries with ambitious energy transition goals, climate policy stability is crucial for ensuring the healthy development of environmental taxes policy and renewable energy markets.

The role of information industry convergence in energy transition.

To cope with global climate risks, promoting energy transformation has become a global consensus. China issued a reform policy in 2010 to promote the convergence of the three major information industries, namely broadcasting and television networks, telecommunications networks and the Internet (TPR policy). However, is the convergence of information industries able to promote energy transition? This study constructs a quasi-natural experimental framework using China's TPR policy as a representative case of industrial convergence. Using city-level panel data between 2003 and 2016 in China and a multi-period difference-in-differences model, this study examines the impact of TPR policy on energy transition. The results show that TPR policy positively contributes to energy transition at a 1% significance level. Extensive robustness tests support this finding. This positive effect is particularly evident in regions with less developed communications infrastructure and stricter environmental regulations. Mechanism analysis suggests that TPR policy promotes energy transition by improving the level of information networks, promoting technological innovation, and optimizing industrial structure. The findings of this paper emphasize the importance of information industry convergence in facilitating energy transformation.

Long run renewable energy productivity, carbon capture patents and air quality in Taiwan.

This study investigates the connection between nonrenewable energy productivity, renewable energy productivity, and air quality degradation in Taiwan from 2002 to 2019. We specifically emphasize the novel contribution of analyzing the productivity of renewable energy consumption. Robust estimation models, namely Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) and Robust Standard Estimation, are employed for comprehensive analyses. Our findings reveal a strong correlation between nonrenewable energy productivity and increased air pollutants, highlighting the significant impact of fossil fuels on air quality deterioration. Although renewable energy productivity demonstrates a negative association with air degradation, its effect is not statistically significant. This can be attributed to Taiwan's continued reliance on non-renewable energy sources within the overall energy mix. Hence, reducing dependence on fossil fuels is crucial for improving air quality. Importantly, the identified relationships have long-term implications, underscoring the necessity of persistent policy measures that promote renewable energy transition and emissions reduction over time. Our research emphasizes the urgency of addressing fossil fuel dependency to mitigate air pollution and highlights the potential benefits of enhancing renewable energy efficiency to achieve cleaner and healthier environments.

Evaluating the roles of energy innovation, fossil fuel costs and environmental compliance towards energy transition in advanced industrial economies.

Given the dire state of climate change, investigating key elements that impact the energy transition process and help monitor progress in greenhouse gas emissions to achieve environmental sustainability is of critical importance. The current study explores the association between energy transition, compliance with environmental agreements, fossil fuels costs, environmental technologies, economic growth, and environmental degradation in G20 economies from 1995 to 2019. Our findings from extensive econometric analysis reveal that economic growth, environmental innovation, renewable energy, and environmental compliance facilitate while fossil fuels and environmental degradation hinder the energy transition process. Our findings conclude that developed countries must focus on alternate energy resources to overcome environmental challenges and subsidize renewable energy and environmental technologies to replace fossil fuels with green energy resources methodologically. Further, policy measures have been discussed in detail in the study.

How are energy transition and energy-related R&D investments effective in enabling decarbonization? Evidence from Nordic Countries by novel WLMC model.

Public interest in climate change-related problems has been developing with the contribution of the recent energy crisis. Accordingly, countries have been increasing their efforts to decarbonize economies. In this context, energy transition and energy-related research and development (R&D) investments can be important strategic tools to be helpful to countries in the decarbonization of economies. Among all, Nordic countries have come to the force because of their well-known position as green economies. Hence, this study examines Nordic countries to investigate the impact of energy transition, renewable energy R&D investments (RRD), energy efficiency R&D investments (EEF) on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by performing wavelet local multiple correlation (WLMC) model and using data from 2000/1 to 2021/12. The outcomes reveal that (i) based on bi-variate cases, energy transition and RRD have a mixed impact on CO2 emissions in all countries across all frequencies; EEF has a declining impact on CO2 emissions in Norway (Sweden) at low and medium (very high) frequencies; (ii) according to four-variate cases, all variables have a combined increasing impact on CO2 emissions; (iii) RRD is the most influential dominant factor in all countries excluding Norway, where EEF is the pioneering one. Thus, the reach proves the varying impacts of energy transition, RRD, and EEF investments on CO2 emissions. In line with the outcomes of the novel WLMC model, various policy endeavors, such as focusing on displacement between sub-types of R&D investments, are argued to ensure the decarbonization of the economies.

From smoke to smiles: Quantifying the happiness benefits of household cooking energy transition.

Existing studies that assess the impact of cooking with dirty solid fuels on human beings tend to underestimate the adverse impact on welfare. This paper aims to address this research gap by examining the happiness benefits of transitioning from solid fuel to cleaner alternatives. Using an extensive panel dataset from China, which includes 150,248 observations collected from 43,251 survey respondents interviewed between 2010 and 2018, this study employs various complementary methodologies, such as the fixed-effect model, propensity score matching, and time-varying difference-in-differences, to overcome challenges related to treatment selection bias and unobserved time-invariant heterogeneity. Further, life satisfaction approach is used to evaluate the economic benefits of cooking energy transition. Our findings indicate that switching from firewood to LPG/natural gas/gas can significantly enhance individual subjective well-being (SWB). Although the improvement brought about by electricity is slightly lower than that of LPG/natural gas/gas, it remains substantial. Notably, the positive effect is more pronounced among specific demographic groups, including females, rural residents, and low-income families. Moreover, these well-being improvements can manifest quickly and persist many years before any noticeable enhancements in physical health. This effect further amplifies over time. However, biogas shows no significant effect on SWB. These findings underscore the importance of clean fuels that contribute to increased happiness, as they are more likely to be consistently adopted. Finally, we estimate that the economic benefits of the well-being improvements resulting from the use of LPG/natural gas/gas and electricity range between $5.15 and $5.44 per day.

Environmental taxes, energy transition and sustainable environmental technologies: A comparative OECD region climate change analysis.

The integrated economic reforms in recent years have transformed human life, however, the subsequent rise in environmental challenges necessitates sustainable development goals to ensure net-zero transformation. Within the context of modern energy, economic, and environmental transformation, we deliberate how environmental taxes, energy transition, and sustainable environmental innovation impact climate change in 38 OECD economies. Our robust empirical investigation allows us to report that environmental taxation, sustainable environmental technology, and energy transition lower but GDP and trade openness exacerbate ecological challenges. We also divide the dataset in G7 and the rest of the OECD groups to document the varying impact of environmental policies within OECD economies. Our econometric analysis helps us report novel policy frameworks to solve climate challenges under the UN SDG agenda.

Moving toward sustainable goals 7 and 13: An inclusive mechanism to achieve environmental sustainability through digitalization and energy transition in OECD countries.

In line with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 7 and 13, this study proposes a policy framework while considering digitalization as a critical tool in shaping the energy transition process to attain environmental suitability in OECD countries. The study employed multifaceted empirical techniques, including Method of Moment Quantile Regression (MMQR), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Dumitrescu and Hurlin (D-H), augmented with robustness tests over the period 2000 to 2021. The results indicate that digitalization augments energy transition and green finance to attain environmental sustainability. However, moving toward higher quantiles (4th, 6th, and 8th), the total impact of energy transition and digitalization is diminished. Besides that, a bidirectional causal relationship was reported running from green finance and digitalization to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study offers a detailed policy framework while considering SDGs 7 and 13.

Analyzing the effectiveness of energy aid for driving the transition towards energy decarbonization; Evidence from Asian developing countries.

Environmental degradation poses a significant challenge in many developing countries, as they heavily rely on fossil fuels to drive economic activities. The transition towards renewable energy is crucial to mitigate ecological depletion, yet numerous Asian developing countries may struggle to achieve the desired levels of renewable energy adoption due to financial constraints. Foreign aid in the energy sector can expedite this transition process. This study aims to examine the impact of foreign aid on the energy decarbonization transition in 22 Asian developing countries from 2003 to 2022 to analyze its contributions and challenges to promote renewable energy adoption. This paper incorporates the two types of foreign aid in the energy sector (nonrenewable and renewable energy aid) provided by the OECD to developing economies. Utilizing the System-Generalized Method of Moments (Sys-GMM), the findings reveal that energy aid significantly contributes to the transition towards energy decarbonization by providing financial support for embracing renewable energy technologies. Specifically, the analysis indicates that a 1% increase in energy aid leads to approximately 3% enhancement in the decarbonization transition process. Moreover, this study adds to the existing body of knowledge by examining the mediating impact of human capital and financial development as well as the moderating effect of institutional quality and demand for clean fuel. These factors play a pivotal role in energy decarbonization transition by fostering financial development and enhancing human capital through capacity-building initiatives and facilitating the adoption of renewable energy technologies.

Role of energy transition in easing energy security risk and decreasing CO2 emissions: Disaggregated level evidence from the USA by quantile-based models.

Consistent with the increasing environmental interest, the clean energy transition is highly critical to achieving decarbonization targets. Also, energy security has become an important topic under the shadow of the energy crisis,. Accordingly, countries have been trying to stimulate clean energy use to preserve the environment and ensure energy security. So, considering the leading role of economic size and volume of energy use, the study examines the USA to define whether energy transition helps decrease energy security risk (ESR) and curb CO2 emissions. So, the study applies a disaggregated level analysis by performing quantile-based models for the period from 2001/Q1 through 2022/Q4. The results demonstrate that (i) the energy transition index decreases environmental ESR at higher quantiles and reliability ESR at lower and middle quantiles, whereas it is not beneficial in declining economic and geopolitical ESR; (ii) energy transition curbs CO2 emissions in building and transport sectors at lower quantiles, whereas it does not help decrease CO2 emissions in industrial and power sectors; (iii) energy transition is mostly ineffective on ESR, whereas it is highly effective in curbing CO2 emissions in all sectors except for transport across various quantiles as time passes; (iv) the results differ according to the aggregated and disaggregated levels; (v) the results are consistent across main and alternative models. Hence, the study highlights the dominant effect of energy transition in curbing sectoral CO2 emissions rather than easing ESR. Accordingly, the study discusses various policy implications for the USA.