The Development and the Assessment of Sampling Methods for Hard-to-Reach Populations in HIV Surveillance.

Due to stigma or legal issues, populations with higher HIV risk are often hard to reach, which impedes accurate population estimation of HIV burden. To better sample hard-to-reach populations (HTRPs) for HIV surveillance, various sampling methods have been designed and/or used since HIV epidemic following the first reported AIDS cases in 1981. This paper describes the development and the assessment (i.e., validity and reproducibility) of approximately eight sampling methods (e.g., convenience sampling, snowball sampling, time location sampling, and respondent-driven sampling) for HTRPs in HIV surveillance, with a focus on respondent-driven sampling (RDS). Compared to other methods, RDS has been greatly assessed. However, current evidence is still inadequate for RDS to be considered the best option for sampling HTRPs. The field must continue to assess RDS and to develop new sampling approaches or modifications to existing approaches.

Prioritization of ethical concerns regarding HIV molecular epidemiology by public health practitioners and researchers.

BACKGROUND: HIV molecular epidemiology (HIV ME) can support the early detection of emerging clusters of new HIV infections by combining HIV sequence data routinely obtained during the clinical treatment of people living with HIV with behavioral, geographic, and sociodemographic information. While information about emerging clusters promises to facilitate HIV prevention and treatment efforts, the use of this data also raises several ethical concerns. We sought to assess how those working on the frontlines of HIV ME, specifically public health practitioners (PHPs) and researchers, prioritized these issues. METHODS: Ethical issues were identified through literature review, qualitative in-depth interviews, and stakeholder engagement. PHPs and researchers using HIV ME prioritized the issues using best-worst scaling (BWS). A balanced incomplete block design was used to generate 11 choice tasks each consisting of a sub-set of 5 ethical concerns. In each task, respondents were asked to assess the most and least concerning issue. Data were analyzed using conditional logit, with a Swait-Louviere test of poolability. Latent class analysis was then used to explore preference heterogeneity. RESULTS: In total, 57 respondents completed the BWS experiment May-June 2023 with the Swait-Louviere test indicating that researchers and PHPs could be pooled (p = 0.512). Latent class analysis identified two classes, those highlighting "Harms" (n = 29) (prioritizing concerns about potential risk of legal prosecution, individual harm, and group stigma) and those highlighting "Utility" (n = 28) (prioritizing concerns about limited evidence, resource allocation, non-disclosure of data use for HIV ME, and the potential to infer the directionality of HIV transmission). There were no differences in the characteristics of members across classes. CONCLUSIONS: The ethical issues of HIV ME vary in importance among stakeholders, reflecting different perspectives on the potential impact and usefulness of the data. Knowing these differences exist can directly inform the focus of future deliberations about the policies and practices of HIV ME in the United States.

Advancing Dialogue About Consent and Molecular HIV Surveillance in the United States: Four Proposals Following a Federal Advisory Panel's Call for Major Reforms.

Policy Points Molecular HIV surveillance and cluster detection and response (MHS/CDR) programs have been a core public health activity in the United States since 2018 and are the "fourth pillar" of the Ending the HIV Epidemic initiative launched in 2019. MHS/CDR has caused controversy, including calls for a moratorium from networks of people living with HIV. In October 2022, the Presidential Advisory Council on HIV/AIDS (PACHA) adopted a resolution calling for major reforms. We analyze the policy landscape and present four proposals to federal stakeholders pertaining to PACHA's recommendations about incorporating opt-outs and plain-language notifications into MHS/CDR programs.

HIV Care Coordination promotes care re-engagement and viral suppression among people who have been out of HIV medical care: an observational effectiveness study using a surveillance-based contemporaneous comparison group.

BACKGROUND: Medical care re-engagement is critical to suppressing viral load and preventing HIV transmission, morbidity and mortality, yet few rigorous intervention studies address this outcome. We assessed the effectiveness of a Ryan White Part A-funded HIV Care Coordination Program relative to 'usual care,' for short-term care re-engagement and viral suppression among people without recent HIV medical care. METHODS: The Care Coordination Program was launched in 2009 at 28 hospitals, health centers, and community-based organizations in New York City. Designed for people with HIV (PWH) experiencing or at risk for poor HIV outcomes, the Care Coordination Program provides long-term, comprehensive medical case management utilizing interdisciplinary teams, structured health education and patient navigation. The intervention was implemented as a safety-net services program, without a designated comparison group. To evaluate it retrospectively, we created an observational, matched cohort of clients and controls. Using the HIV surveillance registry, we identified individuals meeting program eligibility criteria from December 1, 2009 to March 31, 2013 and excluded those dying prior to 12 months of follow-up. We then matched clients to controls on baseline status (lacking evidence of viral suppression, consistently suppressed, inconsistently suppressed, or newly diagnosed in the past 12 months), start of follow-up and propensity score. For this analysis, we limited to those out of care at baseline (defined as having no viral load test in the 12 months pre-enrollment) and still residing within jurisdiction (defined as having a viral load or CD4 test reported to local surveillance and dated within the 12-month follow-up period). Using a GEE model with binary error distribution and logit link, we compared odds of care re-engagement (defined as having ≥ 2 laboratory events ≥ 90 days apart) and viral suppression (defined as having HIV RNA ≤ 200 copies/mL on the most recent viral load test) at 12-month follow-up. RESULTS: Among 326 individuals out of care at baseline, 87.2% of clients and 48.2% of controls achieved care re-engagement (Odds Ratio: 4.53; 95%CI 2.66, 7.71); 58.3% of clients and 49.3% of controls achieved viral suppression (Odds Ratio: 2.05; 95%CI 1.30, 3.23). CONCLUSIONS: HIV Care Coordination shows evidence of effectiveness for care and treatment re-engagement.

Understanding the Intersection of Behavioral Risk and Social Determinants of Health and the Impact on an Outbreak of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Among Persons Who Inject Drugs in Philadelphia.

BACKGROUND: In 2018, Philadelphia identified an outbreak of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections among persons who inject drugs (PWID). Although conventional HIV surveillance systems capture individual-level behavioral risk, they are not able to capture the social and environmental factors contributing to rapid transmission. METHODS: HIV surveillance data were used to assess demographic, clinical, and behavioral factors for PWID with HIV diagnosed during 2017 and 2018. Social factors such as homelessness, disruption of encampments, and trends in sexual behaviors, drug use and syringe availability among PWID were captured through National HIV Behavioral Surveillance, routine hepatitis and sexually transmitted infection surveillance, and shelter and homeless outreach data. RESULTS: In 2018, there were 71 new infections among PWID, an increase of 115% since 2016. During this time, opioid overdose deaths peaked at 59 deaths per 100 000 persons, 85% of which involved the use of fentanyl. While overall reported homelessness increased, rates of those living unsheltered rose by 13%. The Philadelphia Department of Public Health identified increased injection frequency, encampment closures, and lack of syringe access as promoters of continued HIV transmission. CONCLUSION: The use of conventional surveillance methods only is inadequate for determining HIV risk during outbreaks. Incorporation of individual and aggregate level data on social and environmental determinants is necessary to develop effective outbreak response interventions.

HIV/AIDS Among Female Sex Workers in China: Epidemiology and Recent Prevention Strategies.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review aims to describe the epidemiology of HIV among female sex workers (FSWs) in China over the past decade, to summarize current gaps in knowledge regarding risk factors, and to identify new directions for HIV prevention strategies. RECENT FINDINGS: We summarized national and regional levels of HIV prevalence among FSWs based on reported rates in the literature from 2008 to 2018. Studies identified cases of HIV infection among FSWs in all but one province during this time period, and demonstrated a sporadic pattern in most provinces, with a low overall national HIV prevalence below 1%. However, in Yunnan and Guanxi Zhuang Autonomous Regions, the median-reported prevalence rates were close to or slightly above 1%. National prevention programs have widely promoted male condoms as a primary and practical measure for HIV prevention, but studies evaluating condom use practices among FSWs demonstrated wide variability. A rise in illicit use of synthetic drugs and changing sexual practices in the setting of sex work (e.g., anal sex) may represent newer risk factors for HIV transmission among FSWs; however, more data are needed to better characterize these trends. Limited studies have examined the feasibility and efficacy of innovative prevention tools (e.g., female condoms) or strategies (e.g., pre-exposure prophylaxis, PrEP) to prevent HIV among FSWs. We call for a more comprehensive understanding of current trends in HIV risk among FSWs, as well as more research focuses on innovative strategies to reduce the spread of HIV in this vulnerable population.

Methods for generalized change-point models: with applications to human immunodeficiency virus surveillance and diabetes data.

In many epidemiological and biomedical studies, the association between a response variable and some covariates of interest may change at one or several thresholds of the covariates. Change-point models are suitable for investigating the relationship between the response and covariates in such situations. We present change-point models, with at least one unknown change-point occurring with respect to some covariates of a generalized linear model for independent or correlated data. We develop methods for the estimation of the model parameters and investigate their finite-sample performances in simulations. We apply the proposed methods to examine the trends in the reported estimates of the annual percentage of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnoses linked to HIV-related medical care within 3 months after diagnosis using HIV surveillance data from the HIV prevention trial network 065 study. We also apply our methods to a dataset from the Pima Indian diabetes study to examine the effects of age and body mass index on the risk of being diagnosed with type 2 diabetes.

Epidemiological profile of individuals diagnosed with HIV: results from the preliminary phase of case-based surveillance in Kenya.

Understanding the characteristics of individuals who are newly diagnosed with HIV is critical to controlling the HIV epidemic. Characterizing this population can improve strategies to identify undiagnosed positives and assist in targeting the provision of HIV services to improve health outcomes. We describe the characteristics of newly diagnosed HIV cases in western Kenya from 124 health facilities. The study cohort cases were matched to prevent duplication and patients newly diagnosed between January and June 2015 were identified and descriptive analysis performed. Among 8664 newly identified HIV cases, during the pilot timeframe, 3.1% (n=265) had retested for HIV after initial diagnosis. Linkage to care was recorded for approximately half (45.3%, n = 3930) and 28.0% (n = 2425) had a CD4 count available during the pilot timeframe. The median baseline CD4 count was 332 cells/mL (IQR: 156-544). Among the newly diagnosed age 15 years or older with a CD4 test, 53.0% (n = 1216) were diagnosed late, including 32.9% (n = 755) who had advanced HIV at diagnosis. Factors associated with late diagnosis included being male and in an age group older than 34 years. In western Kenya, continued efforts are needed in the area of testing to enhance early HIV diagnosis and epidemic control.

Expert stakeholders' perspectives on a Data-to-Care strategy for improving care among HIV-positive individuals incarcerated in jails.

Data-to-Care (D2C) uses surveillance data (e.g., laboratory, Medicaid billing) to identify out-of-care HIV-positive persons to re-link them to care. Most US states are implementing D2C, yet few studies have explored stakeholders' perspectives on D2C, and none have addressed these perspectives in the context of D2C in jail. This article reports findings from qualitative, semi-structured interviews conducted with expert stakeholders regarding their perspectives on the ethical challenges of utilizing D2C to understand and improve continuity of care among individuals incarcerated in jails. Participants included 47 professionals with expertise in ethics and privacy, public health and HIV care, the criminal justice system, and community advocacy. While participants expressed a great deal of support for extending D2C to jails, they also identified many possible risks. Stakeholders discussed many issues specific to D2C in jails, such as heightened stigma in the jail setting, the need for training of jail staff and additional non-medical community-based resources, and the high priority of this vulnerable population. Many experts suggested that the actual likelihood of benefits and harms would depend on contextual details. Implementation of D2C in jails may require novel strategies to minimize risk of disclosing out-of-care patients' HIV status.

Predictors of Successful HIV Care Re-engagement Among Persons Poorly Engaged in HIV Care.

The Data to Care (D2C) strategy uses HIV surveillance data to identify persons living with HIV (PLWH) who are poorly engaged in care and offers assistance with care re-engagement. We evaluated HIV care re-engagement among PLWH in Seattle & King County, Washington after participation in a D2C program and determined whether variables available at the time of the D2C interview predicted subsequent re-engagement in care. We defined successful re-engagement as surveillance evidence of either continuous care engagement (≥ 2 CD4 counts or HIV RNA results ≥ 60 days apart) or viral suppression (≥ 1 HIV RNA < 200 copies/mL) in the year following the D2C interview. Predictor variables included client characteristics, beliefs about HIV care, and scores on psychosocial assessment scales. Half of participants successfully re-engaged in care. We did not find any significant predictors of re-engagement except viral suppression at the time of the D2C interview. Close follow-up is needed to identify which D2C participants need additional assistance re-engaging in care.

Evaluation of Senegal's prevention of mother to child transmission of HIV (PMTCT) program data for HIV surveillance.

BACKGROUND: With the expansion of Prevention of Mother to Child Transmission (PMTCT) services in Senegal, there is growing interest in using PMTCT program data in lieu of conducting unlinked anonymous testing (UAT)-based ANC Sentinel Surveillance. For this reason, an evaluation was conducted in 2011-2012 to identify the gaps that need to be addressed while transitioning to using PMTCT program data for surveillance. METHODS: We conducted analyses to assess HIV prevalence rates and agreements between Sentinel Surveillance and PMTCT HIV test results. Also, a data quality assessment of the PMTCT program registers and data was conducted during the Sentinel Surveillance period (December 2011 to March 2012) and 3 months prior. Finally, we also assessed selection bias, which was the percentage difference from the HIV prevalence among all women enrolled in the antenatal clinic and the HIV prevalence among women who accepted PMTCT HIV testing. RESULTS: The median site HIV prevalence using routine PMTCT HIV testing data was 1.1% (IQR: 1.0) while the median site prevalence from the UAT HIV Sentinel Surveillance data was at 1.0% (IQR: 1.6). The Positive per cent agreement (PPA) of the PMTCT HIV test results compared to those of the Sentinel Surveillance was 85.1% (95% CI 77.2-90.7%), and the percent-negative agreement (PNA) was 99.9% (95% CI 99.8-99.9%). The overall HIV prevalence according to UAT was the same as that found for women accepting a PMTCT HIV test and those who refused, with percent bias at 0.00%. For several key PMTCT variables, including "HIV test offered" (85.2%), "HIV test acceptance" (78.0%), or "HIV test done" (58.8%), the proportion of records in registers with combined complete and valid data was below the WHO benchmark of 90%. CONCLUSIONS: The PPA of 85.1 was below the WHO benchmarks of 96.6%, while the combined data validity and completeness rates was below the WHO benchmark of 90% for many key PMTCT variables. These results suggested that Senegal will need to reinforce the quality of onsite HIV testing and improve program data collection practices in preparation for using PMTCT data for surveillance purposes.

Measuring Transitions in Sexual Risk Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: The Novel Use of Latent Class and Latent Transition Analysis in HIV Sentinel Surveillance.

New combination human acquired deficiency (HIV) prevention strategies that include biomedical and primary prevention approaches add complexity to the task of measuring sexual risk. Latent transition models are beneficial for understanding complex phenomena; therefore, we trialed the application of latent class and latent transition models to HIV surveillance data. Our aims were to identify sexual risk states and model individuals' transitions between states. A total of 4,685 HIV-negative men who have sex with men (MSM) completed behavioral questionnaires alongside tests for HIV and sexually transmissible infections at one of 2 Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, general practices (2007-2013). We found 4 distinct classes of sexual risk, which we labeled "monogamous" (n = 1,224), "risk minimizer" (n = 1,443), "risk potential" (n = 1,335), and "risk taker" (n = 683). A positive syphilis, gonorrhea, or chlamydia test was significantly associated with class membership. Among a subset of 516 MSM who had at least 3 clinic visits, there was general stability across risk classes; MSM had on average a 0.70 (i.e., 70%) probability of remaining in the same class between visits 1 and 2 and between visits 2 and 3. Monogamous MSM were one exception; the probability of remaining in the monogamous class was 0.51 between visits 1 and 2. Latent transition analyses identified unobserved risk patterns in surveillance data, characterized high-risk MSM, and quantified transitions over time.

A high rate of HIV-1 acquisition post immigration among migrants in Sweden determined by a CD4 T-cell decline trajectory model.

OBJECTIVES: There is a lack of knowledge about the extent to which migrants become HIV-1 infected after arrival in European countries. The objective of this study was to assess the extent to which migrants to Sweden become HIV-1 infected post immigration using a CD4 T-cell decline trajectory model. METHODS: All migrants (n = 2268) who were ≥ 15 years old, were diagnosed with HIV-1 infection in the period 1983-2013, had a known year of arrival in Sweden, did not have primary HIV infection and were not infected via mother-to-child transmission were included in the study. The CD4 T-cell decline trajectory model was applied and estimates of HIV acquisition were compared to the clinical reports. Phylogenetic analysis was performed in a subset of patients to explore whether this would favour the model or the doctor's estimate. RESULTS: The model estimated 19% of individuals to have been infected after arrival in Sweden, whereas the physician's estimate was 12%. In 79% of cases the estimates agreed. Discordance was predominantly seen when the doctor estimated HIV acquisition to have occurred before arrival in Sweden, while the model estimated it to have occurred after arrival in Sweden, and this type of discordance was seen in 10% of all patients. The probability of a discordance was greater for older patients, those with a high first CD4 T-cell count and those infected via heterosexual transmission. The phylogenetic analysis showed a higher concordance with the CD4 model than with the clinical reports (36 vs. 13%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: The model indicated that a substantially higher proportion of migrants are infected after arrival in Sweden than estimated using clinical routine reports. It is therefore important to further emphasize primary preventive measures among migrants who have established themselves in their new country.

Come as You Are: Improving Care Engagement and Viral Load Suppression Among HIV Care Coordination Clients with Lower Mental Health Functioning, Unstable Housing, and Hard Drug Use.

Lower mental health functioning, unstable housing, and drug use can complicate HIV clinical management. Merging programmatic and surveillance data, we examined characteristics and outcomes for HIV Care Coordination clients enrolled between December 2009 and March 2013. For clients diagnosed over 12 months before enrollment, we calculated post- versus pre-enrollment relative risks for short-term (12-month) care engagement and viral suppression. Both outcomes significantly improved in all subgroups, including those with lower mental health functioning, unstable housing, or hard drug use. Analyses further stratified within barrier-affected groups showed a tendency toward greater improvement when that barrier was reduced during the follow-up year.

HIV Prevalence and Risk Factors Among Male Foreign Migrants in Cape Town, South Africa.

While migration has been shown to be a risk factor for HIV, variation in HIV prevalence by subgroups of migrants needs further exploration. This paper documents the HIV prevalence and key characteristics among male foreign migrants in Cape Town, South Africa and the effectiveness of respondent-driven sampling (RDS) to recruit this population. Participants in this cross-sectional study completed a behavioral risk-factor questionnaire and provided a dried blood sample for HIV analysis. Overall HIV prevalence was estimated to be 8.7 % (CI 5.4-11.8) but varied dramatically by country of origin. After adjusting for country of origin, HIV sero-positivity was positively associated with older age (p = 0.001), completing high school (p = 0.025), not having enough money for food (p = 0.036), alcohol use (p = 0.049), and engaging in transactional sex (p = 0.022). RDS was successful in recruiting foreign migrant men. A better understanding of the timing of HIV acquisition is needed to design targeted interventions for migrant men.

Monitoring of the HIV Epidemic Using Routinely Collected Data: The Case of the United Kingdom.

We report on measures used to monitor the response to the UK HIV epidemic. We present analyses of routine data on HIV testing, diagnosis and care, and of CD4 back-calculation models to estimate country of HIV acquisition and incidence. Over the past decade, HIV and AIDS diagnoses and deaths declined while HIV testing coverage increased. Linkage into care, retention in care, and viral suppression was high with few socio-demographic differences. However, in 2013, incidence among MSM, and undiagnosed infection, also remained high, and more than half of heterosexuals newly diagnosed with HIV (the majority of whom were born-abroad) probably acquired HIV in the UK and were diagnosed late. HIV care following diagnosis is excellent in the UK. Improvements in testing and prevention are required to reduce undiagnosed infection, incidence and late diagnoses. Routinely collected laboratory and clinic data is a low cost, robust and timely mechanism to monitor the public health response to national HIV epidemics.

Evaluation of opt-out inpatient HIV screening at an urban teaching hospital.

This study evaluated opt-out inpatient HIV screening delivered by admitting physicians, and compared number of HIV tests and diagnoses to signs and symptoms-directed HIV testing (based on physician orders) in the emergency department (ED). The opt-out inpatient HIV screening program was conducted over a one year period in patients who were admitted to the 386-bed University of California San Diego (UCSD) teaching hospital. Numbers of HIV tests and diagnoses were compared to those observed among ED patients who underwent physician-directed HIV testing during the same time period. Survey data were collected from a convenience sample of patients and providers regarding the opt-out testing program. Among 8488 eligible inpatients, opt-out HIV testing was offered to 3017 (36%) patients, and rapid antibody testing was performed in 1389 (16.4%) inpatients, resulting in 6 (0.4% of all tests) newly identified HIV infections (5/6 were admitted through the ED). Among 27,893 ED patients, rapid antibody testing was performed in 88 (0.3%), with 7 (8.0% of all tests) new HIV infections identified. HIV diagnoses in the ED were more likely to be men who have sex with men (MSM) (p = 0.029) and tended to have AIDS-related opportunistic infections (p = 0.103) when compared to HIV diagnoses among inpatients. While 85% of the 150 physicians who completed the survey were aware of the HIV opt-out screening program, 44% of physicians felt that they did not have adequate time to consent patients for the program, and only 30% agreed that a physician is best-suited to consent patients. In conclusion, the yield of opt-out HIV rapid antibody screening in inpatients was comparable to the national HIV prevalence average. However, uptake of screening was markedly limited in this setting where opt-out screening was delivered by physicians during routine care, with limited time resources being the major barrier.

Population Size Estimation of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Ho Chi Minh City and Nghe An Using Social App Multiplier Method.

This study aims to estimate the number of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC) and Nghe An province, Viet Nam, using a novel method of population size estimation, and to assess the feasibility of the method in implementation. An innovative approach to population size estimation grounded on the principles of the multiplier method, and using social app technology and internet-based surveys was undertaken among MSM in two regions of Viet Nam in 2015. Enumeration of active users of popular social apps for MSM in Viet Nam was conducted over 4 weeks. Subsequently, an independent online survey was done using respondent driven sampling. We also conducted interviews with key informants in Nghe An and HCMC on their experience and perceptions of this method and other methods of size estimation. The population of MSM in Nghe An province was estimated to be 1765 [90% CI 1251-3150]. The population of MSM in HCMC was estimated to be 37,238 [90% CI 24,146-81,422]. These estimates correspond to 0.17% of the adult male population in Nghe An province [90% CI 0.12-0.30], and 1.35% of the adult male population in HCMC [90% CI 0.87-2.95]. Our size estimates of the MSM population (1.35% [90% CI 0.87%-2.95%] of the adult male population in HCMC) fall within current standard practice of estimating 1-3% of adult male population in big cities. Our size estimates of the MSM population (0.17% [90% CI 0.12-0.30] of the adult male population in Nghe An province) are lower than the current standard practice of estimating 0.5-1.5% of adult male population in rural provinces. These estimates can provide valuable information for sub-national level HIV prevention program planning and evaluation. Furthermore, we believe that our results help to improve application of this population size estimation method in other regions of Viet Nam.

Monitoring retention in care: using multiple laboratory tests as an indicator for HIV medical care.

Retention in care is an important strategy for HIV prevention. Unfortunately, surveillance systems were not designed to capture face-to-face visits with HIV health care providers to assess retention in care. Instead, HIV-related laboratory tests are used as a surrogate measure. This study estimated the sensitivity (90%) and specificity (28%) of two HIV-related laboratory tests separated by at least 90 days for two face-to-face visits among people receiving HIV-related health care in Oregon. Overall accuracy of the surrogate was good but slightly overestimated the proportion of people living with HIV/AIDS actually retained in care.