Bayesian inference in ring attractor networks.

Working memories are thought to be held in attractor networks in the brain. These attractors should keep track of the uncertainty associated with each memory, so as to weigh it properly against conflicting new evidence. However, conventional attractors do not represent uncertainty. Here, we show how uncertainty could be incorporated into an attractor, specifically a ring attractor that encodes head direction. First, we introduce a rigorous normative framework (the circular Kalman filter) for benchmarking the performance of a ring attractor under conditions of uncertainty. Next, we show that the recurrent connections within a conventional ring attractor can be retuned to match this benchmark. This allows the amplitude of network activity to grow in response to confirmatory evidence, while shrinking in response to poor-quality or strongly conflicting evidence. This "Bayesian ring attractor" performs near-optimal angular path integration and evidence accumulation. Indeed, we show that a Bayesian ring attractor is consistently more accurate than a conventional ring attractor. Moreover, near-optimal performance can be achieved without exact tuning of the network connections. Finally, we use large-scale connectome data to show that the network can achieve near-optimal performance even after we incorporate biological constraints. Our work demonstrates how attractors can implement a dynamic Bayesian inference algorithm in a biologically plausible manner, and it makes testable predictions with direct relevance to the head direction system as well as any neural system that tracks direction, orientation, or periodic rhythms.

A method to predict the response to directional selection using a Kalman filter.

Predicting evolution remains challenging. The field of quantitative genetics provides predictions for the response to directional selection through the breeder's equation, but these predictions can have errors. The sources of these errors include omission of traits under selection, inaccurate estimates of genetic variance, and nonlinearities in the relationship between genetic and phenotypic variation. Previous research showed that the expected value of these prediction errors is often not zero, so predictions are systematically biased. Here, we propose that this bias, rather than being a nuisance, can be used to improve the predictions. We use this to develop a method to predict evolution, which is built on three key innovations. First, the method predicts change as the breeder's equation plus a bias term. Second, the method combines information from the breeder's equation and from the record of past changes in the mean to predict change using a Kalman filter. Third, the parameters of the filter are fitted in each generation using a learning algorithm on the record of past changes. We compare the method to the breeder's equation in two artificial selection experiments, one using the wing of the fruit fly and another using simulations that include a complex mapping of genotypes to phenotypes. The proposed method outperforms the breeder's equation, particularly when traits under selection are omitted from the analysis, when data are noisy, and when additive genetic variance is estimated inaccurately or not estimated at all. The proposed method is easy to apply, requiring only the trait means over past generations.

Sensory error drives fine motor adjustment.

Fine audiovocal control is a hallmark of human speech production and depends on precisely coordinated muscle activity guided by sensory feedback. Little is known about shared audiovocal mechanisms between humans and other mammals. We hypothesized that real-time audiovocal control in bat echolocation uses the same computational principles as human speech. To test the prediction of this hypothesis, we applied state feedback control (SFC) theory to the analysis of call frequency adjustments in the echolocating bat, Hipposideros armiger. This model organism exhibits well-developed audiovocal control to sense its surroundings via echolocation. Our experimental paradigm was analogous to one implemented in human subjects. We measured the bats' vocal responses to spectrally altered echolocation calls. Individual bats exhibited highly distinct patterns of vocal compensation to these altered calls. Our findings mirror typical observations of speech control in humans listening to spectrally altered speech. Using mathematical modeling, we determined that the same computational principles of SFC apply to bat echolocation and human speech, confirming the prediction of our hypothesis.

Robust Cubature Kalman Filter for Moving-Target Tracking with Missing Measurements.

Handling the challenge of missing measurements in nonlinear systems is a difficult problem in various scientific and engineering fields. Missing measurements, which can arise from technical faults during observation, diffusion channel shrinking, or the loss of specific metrics, can bring many challenges when estimating the state of nonlinear systems. To tackle this issue, this paper proposes a technique that utilizes a robust cubature Kalman filter (RCKF) by integrating Huber's M-estimation theory with the standard conventional cubature Kalman filter (CKF). Although a CKF is often used for solving nonlinear filtering problems, its effectiveness might be limited due to a lack of knowledge regarding the nonlinear model of the state and noise-related statistical information. In contrast, the RCKF demonstrates an ability to mitigate performance degradation and discretization issues related to track curves by leveraging covariance matrix predictions for state estimation and output control amidst dynamic disruption errors-even when noise statistics deviate from prior assumptions. The performance of extended Kalman filters (EKFs), unscented Kalman filters (UKFs), CKFs, and RCKFs was compared and evaluated using two numerical examples involving the Univariate Non-stationary Growth Model (UNGM) and bearing-only tracking (BOT). The numerical experiments demonstrated that the RCKF outperformed the EKF, EnKF, and CKF in effectively handling anomaly errors. Specifically, in the UNGM example, the RCKF achieved a significantly lower ARMSE (4.83) and ANCI (3.27)-similar outcomes were observed in the BOT example.

Mobile Sensor Path Planning for Kalman Filter Spatiotemporal Estimation.

The estimation of spatiotemporal data from limited sensor measurements is a required task across many scientific disciplines. In this paper, we consider the use of mobile sensors for estimating spatiotemporal data via Kalman filtering. The sensor selection problem, which aims to optimize the placement of sensors, leverages innovations in greedy algorithms and low-rank subspace projection to provide model-free, data-driven estimates. Alternatively, Kalman filter estimation balances model-based information and sparsely observed measurements to collectively make better estimation with limited sensors. It is especially important with mobile sensors to utilize historical measurements. We show that mobile sensing along dynamic trajectories can achieve the equivalent performance of a larger number of stationary sensors, with performance gains related to three distinct timescales: (i) the timescale of the spatiotemporal dynamics, (ii) the velocity of the sensors, and (iii) the rate of sampling. Taken together, these timescales strongly influence how well-conditioned the estimation task is. We draw connections between the Kalman filter performance and the observability of the state space model and propose a greedy path planning algorithm based on minimizing the condition number of the observability matrix. This approach has better scalability and computational efficiency compared to previous works. Through a series of examples of increasing complexity, we show that mobile sensing along our paths improves Kalman filter performance in terms of better limiting estimation and faster convergence. Moreover, it is particularly effective for spatiotemporal data that contain spatially localized structures, whose features are captured along dynamic trajectories.

A Study on Graph Optimization Method for GNSS/IMU Integrated Navigation System Based on Virtual Constraints.

In GNSS/IMU integrated navigation systems, factors like satellite occlusion and non-line-of-sight can degrade satellite positioning accuracy, thereby impacting overall navigation system results. To tackle this challenge and leverage historical pseudorange information effectively, this paper proposes a graph optimization-based GNSS/IMU model with virtual constraints. These virtual constraints in the graph model are derived from the satellite's position from the previous time step, the rate of change of pseudoranges, and ephemeris data. This virtual constraint serves as an alternative solution for individual satellites in cases of signal anomalies, thereby ensuring the integrity and continuity of the graph optimization model. Additionally, this paper conducts an analysis of the graph optimization model based on these virtual constraints, comparing it with traditional graph models of GNSS/IMU and SLAM. The marginalization of the graph model involving virtual constraints is analyzed next. The experiment was conducted on a set of real-world data, and the results of the proposed method were compared with tightly coupled Kalman filtering and the original graph optimization method. In instantaneous performance testing, the method maintains an RMSE error within 5% compared with real pseudorange measurement, while in a continuous performance testing scenario with no available GNSS signal, the method shows approximately a 30% improvement in horizontal RMSE accuracy over the traditional graph optimization method during a 10-second period. This demonstrates the method's potential for practical applications.

How Not to Make the Joint Extended Kalman Filter Fail with Unstructured Mechanistic Models.

The unstructured mechanistic model (UMM) allows for modeling the macro-scale of a phenomenon without known mechanisms. This is extremely useful in biomanufacturing because using the UMM for the joint estimation of states and parameters with an extended Kalman filter (JEKF) can enable the real-time monitoring of bioprocesses with unknown mechanisms. However, the UMM commonly used in biomanufacturing contains ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with unshared parameters, weak variables, and weak terms. When such a UMM is coupled with an initial state error covariance matrix P(t=0) and a process error covariance matrix Q with uncorrelated elements, along with just one measured state variable, the joint extended Kalman filter (JEKF) fails to estimate the unshared parameters and state simultaneously. This is because the Kalman gain corresponding to the unshared parameter remains constant and equal to zero. In this work, we formally describe this failure case, present the proof of JEKF failure, and propose an approach called SANTO to side-step this failure case. The SANTO approach consists of adding a quantity to the state error covariance between the measured state variable and unshared parameter in the initial P(t = 0) of the matrix Ricatti differential equation to compute the predicted error covariance matrix of the state and prevent the Kalman gain from being zero. Our empirical evaluations using synthetic and real datasets reveal significant improvements: SANTO achieved a reduction in root-mean-square percentage error (RMSPE) of up to approximately 17% compared to the classical JEKF, indicating a substantial enhancement in estimation accuracy.

3D Indoor Position Estimation Based on a UDU Factorization Extended Kalman Filter Structure Using Beacon Distance and Inertial Measurement Unit Data.

The development of the GPS (Global Positioning System) and related advances have made it possible to conceive of an outdoor positioning system with great accuracy; however, for indoor positioning, more efficient, reliable, and cost-effective technology is required. There are a variety of techniques utilized for indoor positioning, such as those that are Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, infrared, ultrasound, magnetic, and visual-marker-based. This work aims to design an accurate position estimation algorithm by combining raw distance data from ultrasonic sensors (Marvelmind Beacon) and acceleration data from an inertial measurement unit (IMU), utilizing the extended Kalman filter (EKF) with UDU factorization (expressed as the product of a triangular, a diagonal, and the transpose of the triangular matrix) approach. Initially, a position estimate is calculated through the use of a recursive least squares (RLS) method with a trilateration algorithm, utilizing raw distance data. This solution is then combined with acceleration data collected from the Marvelmind sensor, resulting in a position solution akin to that of the GPS. The data were initially collected via the ROS (Robot Operating System) platform and then via the Pixhawk development card, with tests conducted using a combination of four fixed and one moving Marvelmind sensors, as well as three fixed and one moving sensors. The designed algorithm is found to produce accurate results for position estimation, and is subsequently implemented on an embedded development card (Pixhawk). The tests showed that the designed algorithm gives accurate results with centimeter precision. Furthermore, test results have shown that the UDU-EKF structure integrated into the embedded system is faster than the classical EKF.

Research on Robust Adaptive RTK Positioning of Low-Cost Smart Terminals.

The performance of low-cost smart terminals is limited by the performance of their low-cost Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) hardware and chips, as well as by the impact of complex urban environments, which affect the positioning accuracy and stability of GNSS services. To this end, this paper proposes a robust adaptive Kalman filter for different environments that can be applied after data preprocessing. Based on the Kalman filter algorithm, a robust estimation approach is introduced into real-time kinematic (RTK) positioning to make judgments on the abnormal observation values of low-cost smart terminals, which amplifies the variance and covariance of the outlier observation equation, and reduces the impact of outliers on positioning performance. The Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics III (IGG III) function is used for regulation purposes, where prior information is modified and refreshed using the equivalent weight matrix and adaptive factors, thus reducing the impact of system model errors on system state estimation results. In addition, a robust factor is defined to adjust positioning deviation weighting between the pre- and post-test robust estimates. The experimental results show that after robust RTK positioning in the static experiments, the overall improvement in positioning accuracies of the Xiaomi 8, Huawei P40, Huawei mate40, and low-cost M8 receiver reached 29.6%, 31.3%, 32.1%, and 30.7%, respectively. Similarly, after applying the proposed robust method in the dynamic experiments, the overall positioning accuracies of the Xiaomi 8, Huawei P40, Huawei mate40, and the low-cost M8 receiver improved by 28.3%, 32.9%, 35.4%, and 26.2%, respectively. The experimental results reveal that an excellent positioning effect of a smartphone is positively correlated with robust RTK positioning performance. However, it is worth noting that when the positioning accuracy reaches a high level, such as the positioning results achieved using low-cost receivers, the robustness performance shows a relatively decreasing trend. This finding suggests that under the condition of high positioning accuracy, the sensitivity of specific positioning equipment to interference sources may increase, resulting in a decline in the effect of robust RTK positioning.

Sensor Fusion for Underwater Vehicle Navigation Compensating Misalignment Using Lie Theory.

This paper presents a sensor fusion method for navigation of unmanned underwater vehicles. The method combines Lie theory into Kalman filter to estimate and compensate for the misalignment between the sensors: inertial navigation system and Doppler Velocity Log (DVL). In the process and measurement model equations, a 3-dimensional Euclidean group (SE(3)) and 3-sphere space (S3) are used to express the pose (position and attitude) and misalignment, respectively. SE(3) contains position and attitude transformation matrices, and S3 comprises unit quaternions. The increments in pose and misalignment are represented in the Lie algebra, which is a linear space. The use of Lie algebra facilitates the application of an extended Kalman filter (EKF). The previous EKF approach without Lie theory is based on the assumption that a non-differentiable space can be approximated as a differentiable space when the increments are sufficiently small. On the contrary, the proposed Lie theory approach enables exact differentiation in a differentiable space, thus enhances the accuracy of the navigation. Furthermore, the convergence and stability of the internal parameters, such as the Kalman gain and measurement innovation, are improved.

Comparative Analysis of Integrated Filtering Methods Using UWB Localization in Indoor Environment.

This research delves into advancing an ultra-wideband (UWB) localization system through the integration of filtering technologies (moving average (MVG), Kalman filter (KF), extended Kalman filter (EKF)) with a low-pass filter (LPF). We investigated new approaches to enhance the precision and reduce noise of the current filtering methods-MVG, KF, and EKF. Using a TurtleBot robotic platform with a camera, our research thoroughly examines the UWB system in various trajectory situations (square, circular, and free paths with 2 m, 2.2 m, and 5 m distances). Particularly in the square path trajectory with the lowest root mean square error (RMSE) values (40.22 mm on the X axis, and 78.71 mm on the Y axis), the extended Kalman filter with low-pass filter (EKF + LPF) shows notable accuracy. This filter stands out among the others. Furthermore, we find that integrated method using LPF outperforms MVG, KF, and EKF consistently, reducing the mean absolute error (MAE) to 3.39% for square paths, 4.21% for circular paths, and 6.16% for free paths. This study highlights the effectiveness of EKF + LPF for accurate indoor localization for UWB systems.

Crossing-Point Estimation in Human-Robot Navigation-Statistical Linearization versus Sigma-Point Transformation.

Interactions between mobile robots and human operators in common areas require a high level of safety, especially in terms of trajectory planning, obstacle avoidance and mutual cooperation. In this connection, the crossings of planned trajectories and their uncertainty based on model fluctuations, system noise and sensor noise play an outstanding role. This paper discusses the calculation of the expected areas of interactions during human-robot navigation with respect to fuzzy and noisy information. The expected crossing points of the possible trajectories are nonlinearly associated with the positions and orientations of the robots and humans. The nonlinear transformation of a noisy system input, such as the directions of the motion of humans and robots, to a system output, the expected area of intersection of their trajectories, is performed by two methods: statistical linearization and the sigma-point transformation. For both approaches, fuzzy approximations are presented and the inverse problem is discussed where the input distribution parameters are computed from the given output distribution parameters.

Adaptive Multi-Sensor Joint Tracking Algorithm with Unknown Noise Characteristics.

In this study, to solve the low accuracy of multi-space-based sensor joint tracking in the presence of unknown noise characteristics, an adaptive multi-sensor joint tracking algorithm (AMSJTA) is proposed. First, the coordinate transformation from the target object to the optical sensors is considered, and the observation vector-based measurement model is established. Then, the measurement noise characteristics are assumed to be white Gaussian noise, and the measurement covariance matrix is set as a constant. On this premise, the traditional iterative extended Kalman filter is applied to solve this problem. However, in most actual engineering applications, the measurement noise characteristics are unknown. Thus, a forgetting factor is introduced to adaptively estimate the unknown measurement noise characteristics, and the AMSJTA is designed to improve the tracking accuracy. Furthermore, the lower bound of the proposed algorithm is theoretically proved. Finally, numerical simulations are executed to verify the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed AMSJTA.

An Enhanced Indoor Three-Dimensional Localization System with Sensor Fusion Based on Ultra-Wideband Ranging and Dual Barometer Altimetry.

Accurate three-dimensional (3D) localization within indoor environments is crucial for enhancing item-based application services, yet current systems often struggle with localization accuracy and height estimation. This study introduces an advanced 3D localization system that integrates updated ultra-wideband (UWB) sensors and dual barometric pressure (BMP) sensors. Utilizing three fixed UWB anchors, the system employs geometric modeling and Kalman filtering for precise tag 3D spatial localization. Building on our previous research on indoor height measurement with dual BMP sensors, the proposed system demonstrates significant improvements in data processing speed and stability. Our enhancements include a new geometric localization model and an optimized Kalman filtering algorithm, which are validated by a high-precision motion capture system. The results show that the localization error is significantly reduced, with height accuracy of approximately ±0.05 m, and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the 3D localization system reaches 0.0740 m. The system offers expanded locatable space and faster data output rates, delivering reliable performance that supports advanced applications requiring detailed 3D indoor localization.

Experimental Research on Shipborne SINS Rapid Mooring Alignment with Variance-Constraint Kalman Filter and GNSS Position Updates.

Analytical coarse alignment and Kalman filter fine alignment based on zero-velocity are typically used to obtain initial attitude for inertial navigation systems (SINS) on a static base. However, in the shipboard mooring state, the static observation condition is corrupted. This paper presents a rapid alignment method for SINS on swaying bases. The proposed method begins with a coarse alignment technique in the inertial frame to obtain an initial rough attitude. Subsequently, a Kalman filter with position updates is employed to estimate the remaining misalignment error. To enhance the filter estimation performance, an appropriate lower boundary is set to the target states' variances according to a carefully designed relative convergence index. The variance-constraint Kalman filter (VCKF) approach is proposed in this paper, and the shipborne experiments validate its effectiveness. The results demonstrate that the VCKF approach significantly reduces the time requirement for fine alignment to achieve the same accuracy on a swaying base, from 90 min in the classic Kalman filter to 30 min. Additionally, the parameter estimation performance in the Kalman filter is also improved, particularly in situations where unpredicted external interference is involved during fine alignment.

Limited Memory-Based Random-Weighted Kalman Filter.

The Kalman filter is an important technique for system state estimation. It requires the exact knowledge of system noise statistics to achieve optimal state estimation. However, in practice, this knowledge is often unknown or inaccurate due to uncertainties and disturbances involved in the dynamic environment, leading to degraded or even divergent filtering solutions. To address this issue, this paper presents a new method by combining the random weighting concept with the limited memory technique to accurately estimate system noise statistics. To avoid the influence of excessive historical information on state estimation, random weighting theories are established based on the limited memory technique to estimate both process noise and measurement noise statistics within a limited memory. Subsequently, the estimated system noise statistics are fed back into the Kalman filtering process for system state estimation. The proposed method improves the Kalman filtering accuracy by adaptively adjusting the weights of system noise statistics within a limited memory to suppress the interference of system noise on system state estimation. Simulations and experiments as well as comparison analysis were conducted, demonstrating that the proposed method can overcome the disadvantage of the traditional limited memory filter, leading to im-proved accuracy for system state estimation.

Disciplining a Rubidium Atomic Clock Based on Adaptive Kalman Filter.

Rubidium atomic clocks have been used extensively in various fields, with applications such as a core component of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). However, they exhibit inherently poor long-term stability. This paper presents the development of a control system for rubidium atomic clocks. It introduces an adaptive Kalman filtering algorithm for the disciplining of a rubidium atomic clock, utilizing autocovariance least squares (ALS) to estimate the clock's noise parameters. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm achieves a high estimation accuracy. The standard deviation of the clock error between the steered rubidium atomic clock 1 Pulse Per Second (1PPS) and Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) provided by the National Time Service Center (NTSC) is better than 2.568 nanoseconds(ns), with peak-to-peak values improving to within 11.358 ns. Notably, its frequency stability is reduced to 3.06 × 10-13 @100,000 s. The results for the rubidium atomic clock demonstrate that the adaptive Kalman filtering algorithm proposed herein constitutes an accurate and effective control strategy for the rubidium atomic clock discipline.

Robust Attitude Estimation for Low-Dynamic Vehicles Based on MEMS-IMU and External Acceleration Compensation.

Attitude determination based on a micro-electro-mechanical system inertial measurement unit (MEMS-IMU) has attracted extensive attention. The non-gravitational components of the MEMS-IMU have a significant effect on the accuracy of attitude estimation. To improve the attitude estimation of low-dynamic vehicles under uneven soil conditions or vibrations, a robust Kalman filter (RKF) was developed and tested in this paper, where the noise covariance was adaptively changed to compensate for the external acceleration of the vehicle. The state model for MEMS-IMU attitude estimation was initially constructed using a simplified direction cosine matrix. Subsequently, the variance of unmodeled external acceleration was estimated online based on filtering innovations of different window lengths, where the acceleration disturbance was addressed by tradeoffs in time-delay and prescribed computation cost. The effectiveness of the RKF was validated through experiments using a three-axis turntable, an automatic vehicle, and a tractor tillage test. The turntable experiment demonstrated that the angle result of the RKF was 0.051° in terms of root mean square error (RMSE), showing improvements of 65.5% and 29.2% over a conventional KF and MTi-300, respectively. The dynamic attitude estimation of the automatic vehicle showed that the RKF achieves smoother pitch angles than the KF when the vehicle passes over speed bumps at different speeds; the RMSE of pitch was reduced from 0.875° to 0.460° and presented a similar attitude trend to the MTi-300. The tractor tillage test indicated that the RMSE of plough pitch was improved from 0.493° with the KF to 0.259° with the RKF, an enhancement of approximately 47.5%, illustrating the superiority of the RKF in suppressing the external acceleration disturbances of IMU-based attitude estimation.

UAV-UGV Collaborative Localisation with Minimum Sensing.

This paper presents a novel methodology to localise Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). The UGVs are assumed to be operating in a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS)-denied environment. The localisation of the ground vehicles is achieved using UAVs that have full access to the GNSS. The UAVs use range sensors to localise the UGV. One of the major requirements is to use the minimum number of UAVs, which is two UAVs in this paper. Using only two UAVs leads to a significant complication that results an estimation unobservability under certain circumstances. As a solution to the unobservability problem, the main contribution of this paper is to present a methodology to treat the unobservability problem. A Constrained Extended Kalman Filter (CEKF)-based solution, which uses novel kinematics and heuristics-based constraints, is presented. The proposed methodology has been assessed based on the stochastic observability using the Posterior Cramér-Rao Bound (PCRB), and the results demonstrate the successful operation of the proposed localisation method.

Object Detection and Tracking with YOLO and the Sliding Innovation Filter.

Object detection and tracking are pivotal tasks in machine learning, particularly within the domain of computer vision technologies. Despite significant advancements in object detection frameworks, challenges persist in real-world tracking scenarios, including object interactions, occlusions, and background interference. Many algorithms have been proposed to carry out such tasks; however, most struggle to perform well in the face of disturbances and uncertain environments. This research proposes a novel approach by integrating the You Only Look Once (YOLO) architecture for object detection with a robust filter for target tracking, addressing issues of disturbances and uncertainties. The YOLO architecture, known for its real-time object detection capabilities, is employed for initial object detection and centroid location. In combination with the detection framework, the sliding innovation filter, a novel robust filter, is implemented and postulated to improve tracking reliability in the face of disturbances. Specifically, the sliding innovation filter is implemented to enhance tracking performance by estimating the optimal centroid location in each frame and updating the object's trajectory. Target tracking traditionally relies on estimation theory techniques like the Kalman filter, and the sliding innovation filter is introduced as a robust alternative particularly suitable for scenarios where a priori information about system dynamics and noise is limited. Experimental simulations in a surveillance scenario demonstrate that the sliding innovation filter-based tracking approach outperforms existing Kalman-based methods, especially in the presence of disturbances. In all, this research contributes a practical and effective approach to object detection and tracking, addressing challenges in real-world, dynamic environments. The comparative analysis with traditional filters provides practical insights, laying the groundwork for future work aimed at advancing multi-object detection and tracking capabilities in diverse applications.