Climate and socioeconomic drivers of biomass burning and carbon emissions from fires in tropical dry forests: A Pantropical analysis.

Global burned area has declined by nearly one quarter between 1998 and 2015. Drylands contain a large proportion of these global fires but there are important differences within the drylands, for example, savannas and tropical dry forests (TDF). Savannas, a biome fire-prone and fire-adapted, have reduced the burned area, while the fire in the TDF is one of the most critical factors impacting biodiversity and carbon emissions. Moreover, under climate change scenarios TDF is expected to increase its current extent and raise the risk of fires. Despite regional and global scale effects, and the influence of this ecosystem on the global carbon cycle, little effort has been dedicated to studying the influence of climate (seasonality and extreme events) and socioeconomic conditions of fire regimen in TDF. Here we use the Global Fire Emissions Database and, climate and socioeconomic metrics to better understand long-term factors explaining the variation in burned area and biomass in TDF at Pantropical scale. On average, fires affected 1.4% of the total TDF' area (60,208 km2 ) and burned 24.4% (259.6 Tg) of the global burned biomass annually at Pantropical scales. Climate modulators largely influence local and regional fire regimes. Inter-annual variation in fire regime is shaped by El Niño and La Niña. During the El Niño and the forthcoming year of La Niña, there is an increment in extension (35.2% and 10.3%) and carbon emissions (42.9% and 10.6%). Socioeconomic indicators such as land-management and population were modulators of the size of both, burned area and carbon emissions. Moreover, fires may reduce the capability to reach the target of "half protected species" in the globe, that is, high-severity fires are recorded in ecoregions classified as nature could reach half protected. These observations may contribute to improving fire-management.

El área global quemada se redujo en casi una cuarta parte entre 1998 y 2015. Los bosques secos contienen una gran proporción de esos incendios globales, pero existen diferencias importantes dentro de ellos, por ejemplo, las sabanas y los bosques secos tropicales (SBC). Las sabanas, son un bioma propenso y adaptado al fuego, y que en los últimos años han reducido su área quemada. Mientras que el fuego en la SBC es uno de los factores más críticos que impactan la biodiversidad y las emisiones de carbono. Además, bajo escenarios de cambio climático, se espera que la SBC aumente su extensión actual y aumente el riesgo de incendios. A pesar de los efectos a escala regional y global, y la influencia de este ecosistema en el ciclo global del carbono, se le ha dedicado poco esfuerzo a estudiar la influencia del clima (estacionalidad y eventos extremos) y las condiciones socioeconómicas del régimen de incendios. Aquí usamos la base de datos global de emisiones de incendios y métricas climáticas y socioeconómicas para comprender mejor los factores a largo plazo que explican la variación en el área quemada y la biomasa a escala Pantropical. En promedio, los incendios afectaron el 1,4% del área total de la SBC (60 208 km2 ) y quemaron el 24,4% (259,6 Tg) de la biomasa global quemada anualmente a escala Pantropical. Los moduladores climáticos influyen en gran medida en los regímenes de incendios locales y regionales. La variación interanual del régimen de incendios está determinada por El Niño y La Niña. Durante El Niño y el año subsecuente de La Niña, se produce un incremento en la extensión (35,2% y 10,3%) y en las emisiones de carbono (42,9% y 10,6%). Los indicadores socioeconómicos como la gestión de la tierra y la población fueron moduladores del tamaño tanto del área quemada como de las emisiones de carbono. Además, los incendios pueden reducir la capacidad de alcanzar el objetivo de "protección de la mitad de las especies" en el mundo, es decir, los incendios de alta gravedad se registran en ecorregiones clasificadas como naturaleza que podría alcanzar la protección de la mitad de su biodiversidad. Estas observaciones pueden contribuir a mejorar la gestión de incendios.

Association between El Niño-Southern Oscillation events and stroke: a case-crossover study in Kaunas city, Lithuania, 2000-2015.

The aim of this study was to determine the association between the daily number of cases of ischemic stroke (IS) and hemorrhagic stroke (HS) in patients aged 25-64 years and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events during 2000-2015. As an indicator of the effect of the ENSO, the monthly NIÑO 3.4 index (Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperature) was used. During the 5844-day study period, 5600 cases of stroke (3170 (56.61%) in men and 2430 (43.39%) in women) were analyzed. Of these, 4354 (77.8%) cases were IS, and 1041 (18.6%) cases were HS. In 3496 (62.2%) cases, stroke occurred in the age group of 55-64 years. In the analysis, we used the following categories of the ENSO events: strong La Niña, moderate La Niña, moderate El Niño, and strong El Niño. The effect of the ENSO was examined by using the multivariate Poisson regression adjusting for weather variables. The highest risk of both strokes (BS) was observed on days of strong and moderate La Niña (rate ratio (RR) 1.27, 95% CI 1.13-1.42) and RR = 1.15 (1.07-1.23), respectively), while the risk for IS was the highest on days of moderate El Niño (RR = 1.11(1.02-1.20)). A lower risk for BS was found on days of strong El Niño (RR = 0.77(0.62-0.97)). We found that ENSO events affected the occurrence of BS and IS in all age groups, and the strongest effect was observed among females. The results of this study provide new evidence that ENSO events may affect the risk of stroke, especially the risk of IS.

Another Record: Ocean Warming Continues through 2021 despite La Niña Conditions.

The increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from human activities traps heat within the climate system and increases ocean heat content (OHC). Here, we provide the first analysis of recent OHC changes through 2021 from two international groups. The world ocean, in 2021, was the hottest ever recorded by humans, and the 2021 annual OHC value is even higher than last year's record value by 14 ± 11 ZJ (1 zetta J = 1021 J) using the IAP/CAS dataset and by 16 ± 10 ZJ using NCEI/NOAA dataset. The long-term ocean warming is larger in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans than in other regions and is mainly attributed, via climate model simulations, to an increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. The year-to-year variation of OHC is primarily tied to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In the seven maritime domains of the Indian, Tropical Atlantic, North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, North Pacific, Southern oceans, and the Mediterranean Sea, robust warming is observed but with distinct inter-annual to decadal variability. Four out of seven domains showed record-high heat content in 2021. The anomalous global and regional ocean warming established in this study should be incorporated into climate risk assessments, adaptation, and mitigation.

Twenty-year impact of fire foci and its relationship with climate variables in Brazilian regions.

In recent years, Brazil has become a major global contributor to the occurrence of national fires and greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the fire foci data of the past 20 years to determine their relationship with climatic variables in various Brazilian regions. The variables evaluated included fire foci, land surface temperature, rainfall, and standardized precipitation index, which were obtained via remote sensing from 2000 to 2019. The data were subjected to trend analyses (Mann-Kendall and Pettitt tests) and a multivariate analysis of canonical variables for evaluation. The results showed that the Midwest and North regions had the highest occurrence of fire foci throughout the study period, and that the North region had the highest accumulated annual rainfall. Thus, these regions require specific public policies to prevent future fires. Overall, the Midwest, Southeast, and South regions exhibit significant increasing fire foci tendencies. Our results reveal that this trend is related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena, which alter climatic variables such as precipitation, land surface temperature, and the standardized precipitation index. Finally, the sugarcane growing area had a significant linear relationship with fire foci in the Southeast region, especially in the state of São Paulo, the major national sugarcane producer.

Modulation of hydroxyl variability by ENSO in the absence of external forcing.

The hydroxyl radical (OH) is the primary oxidant in the troposphere, and the impact of its fluctuations on the methane budget has been disputed in recent years, however measurements of OH are insufficient to characterize global interannual fluctuations relevant for methane. Here, we use a 6,000-y control simulation of preindustrial conditions with a chemistry-climate model to quantify the natural variability in OH and internal feedbacks governing that variability. We find that, even in the absence of external forcing, maximum OH changes are 3.8 ± 0.8% over a decade, which is large in the context of the recent methane growth from 2007-2017. We show that the OH variability is not a white-noise process. A wavelet analysis indicates that OH variability exhibits significant feedbacks with the same periodicity as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We find intrinsically generated modulation of the OH variability, suggesting that OH may show periods of rapid or no change in future decades that are solely due to the internal climate dynamics (as opposed to external forcings). An empirical orthogonal function analysis further indicates that ENSO is the dominant mode of OH variability, with the modulation of OH occurring primarily through lightning [Formula: see text] La Niña is associated with an increase in convection in the Tropical Pacific, which increases the simulated occurrence of lightning and allows for more OH production. Understanding this link between OH and ENSO may improve the predictability of the oxidative capacity of the troposphere and assist in elucidating the causes of current and historical trends in methane.

Meteorological drivers and ENSO influence on phytoplankton biomass dynamics in a shallow subtropical lake.

Meteorological features influence the dynamics of aquatic ecosystems and consequently their biotas. This study aimed to identify the meteorological drivers of phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a), sampled seasonally over a period of 12 years (2001-2013) in Lake Mangueira, a large shallow subtropical lake in southern Brazil. The lake is 90 km long and 3-10 km wide with a mean depth of 3 m and is oligo-mesotrophic and highly affected by wind action. In general, non-parametric multiplicative regression analysis identified wind direction, radiation, and the Oceanic Niño Index as the main drivers of variation in chlorophyll a. Notably, ENSO periods caused changes in physical, chemical, and meteorological parameters, including conductivity, total suspended solids, total and dissolved nitrogen, alkalinity, soluble reactive silica, wind speed, and precipitation. Phytoplankton biomass showed significant differences between ENSO periods and the periods without events, occurring in the highest values during La Niña years. This study showed that meteorological variables can significantly influence productivity patterns, indicating the importance of including them in limnological studies.

PM2.5 monitoring during a 10-year period: relation between elemental concentration and meteorological conditions.

Four monitoring campaigns between the years 2009 and 2018 were conducted in Córdoba City, Argentina, to detect toxic metals in PM2.5 samples. The concentrations of As, Cd, Pb, Cu, Cr, Mn, Hg, Ni, and Zn, together with several other elements, were measured. The average metal concentrations followed the order: Zn > Cr > Cu > Mn > Pb > V > Ni > As ~ Sb > Cd > Tl > Pd > Hg > Pt. From the analysis of the temporal variation in the elemental concentration of PM2.5, results show seasonal variations that reach, in general, a maximum in the coldest seasons and a minimum in the warmer seasons. These differences could be explained by the different weather conditions during each season, the influence of the El Niño/La Niña regimen, and the presence of fires on certain sampling dates. The source apportionment analysis performed for the period 2017-2018 showed the contribution to PM2.5 of combustion of heavy fuel oil and diesel-powered vehicles, pet coke, metallurgical and nonferrous industries, paint plant factory, traffic, and natural sources like the soil and road dust. This last analysis completed the assignment of sources for the 10-year period of study. Thus, the results of this work contribute to the implementation of emission reduction strategies in order to decrease the impact of PM2.5 on the environment and the human health.

Direct and indirect effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on development and survival of young of a tropical passerine.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global phenomenon that influences climate variation and, in turn, the ecological processes affecting the abundance and distribution of populations across taxa. For example, the ENSO can profoundly influence the development and survival of pelagic species, but the extent to which the ENSO affects offspring of terrestrial species is less well known. We used piecewise structural equation modeling to investigate the direct and indirect relationship between the ENSO and offspring development and survival in a terrestrial tropical passerine, the lance-tailed manakin (Chiroxiphia lanceolata). The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), a measure of the ENSO, was negatively related to individual growth rate, maximum number of lesion developed by nestlings, and hatching day-of-year; which in turn mediated indirect effects on fledging success and recruitment. Further the ONI was a better predictor of nestling development compared to local temperature and rainfall. Our study establishes a link between the ENSO and the development and survival of young of a terrestrial species and underscores the need to better understand how offspring cope with global climate variation.

[Regulación de la donación de gametos y embriones en las técnicas de reproducción humana asistida: ¿anónima o abierta?]

The use of donated gametes and embryos in assisted reproduction techniques (ART) makes it necessary to examine interests that involve relevant ethical and legal considerations, which include the autonomy and privacy rights of the intended parents, donors' right to privacy and the right of the minors to know their genetic origin. This article presents arguments to consider policies of more openness to obtain information from donors in order to protect the child's best interest in knowing his/her genetic origins. It concludes with the situation in Mexico, where ART has been carried out with donated gametes since several years ago; however, due to the absence of regulations to control these procedures, each establishment imposes its own criteria for the operation of its programs.

El uso de gametos y embriones donados en técnicas de reproducción humana asistida hace necesario examinar intereses que implican consideraciones éticas y jurídicas relevantes, y estos incluyen los derechos de autonomía y privacidad de los padres de intención, el derecho a la privacidad de los donantes y el derecho de los menores a conocer su origen genético. En este artículo se exponen argumentos para considerar políticas de mayor apertura para la obtención de información de los donantes en aras de proteger el interés superior del niño y la niña a conocer sus orígenes genéticos. Concluye con la problemática en México, donde desde hace varios años se realizan técnicas de reproducción humana asistida con gametos donados, sin embargo, debido a la ausencia de una normatividad que regule estos procedimientos, cada establecimiento impone sus criterios para el funcionamiento de sus programas.

The effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events on intertidal seagrass beds over a long-term timescale.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can cause dramatic changes in marine communities. However, we know little as to how ENSO events affect tropical seagrass beds over decadal timescales. Therefore, a diverse array of seagrass (Thalassia hemprichii) habitat types were surveyed once every 3 months for 16 years (January 2001 to February 2017) in a tropical intertidal zone that is regularly affected by both ENSO events and anthropogenic nutrient enrichment. La Niña and El Niño events had distinct effects on the biomass and growth of T. hemprichii. During La Niña years, higher (a) precipitation levels and (b) seawater nitrogen concentrations led to increases in seagrass leaf productivity, canopy height, and biomass. However, the latter simultaneously stimulated the growth of periphyton on seagrass leaves; this led to decreases in seagrass cover and shoot density. More frequent La Niña events could, then, eventually lead to either a decline in intertidal seagrass beds or a shift to another, less drought-resistant seagrass species in those regions already characterized by eutrophication due to local anthropogenic activity.

El Niño Southern Oscillation influences the abundance and movements of a marine top predator in coastal waters.

Large-scale climate modes such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence population dynamics in many species, including marine top predators. However, few quantitative studies have investigated the influence of large-scale variability on resident marine top predator populations. We examined the effect of climate variability on the abundance and temporary emigration of a resident bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) population off Bunbury, Western Australia (WA). This population has been studied intensively over six consecutive years (2007-2013), yielding a robust dataset that captures seasonal variations in both abundance and movement patterns. In WA, ENSO affects the strength of the Leeuwin Current (LC), the dominant oceanographic feature in the region. The strength and variability of the LC affects marine ecosystems and distribution of top predator prey. We investigated the relationship between dolphin abundance and ENSO, Southern Annular Mode, austral season, rainfall, sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature (SST). Linear models indicated that dolphin abundance was significantly affected by ENSO, and that the magnitude of the effect was dependent upon season. Dolphin abundance was lowest during winter 2009, when dolphins had high temporary emigration rates out of the study area. This coincided with the single El Niño event that occurred throughout the study period. Coupled with this event, there was a negative anomaly in SST and an above average rainfall. These conditions may have affected the distribution of dolphin prey, resulting in the temporary emigration of dolphins out of the study area in search of adequate prey. This study demonstrated the local effects of large-scale climatic variations on the short-term response of a resident, coastal delphinid species. With a projected global increase in frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, resident marine top predators may not only have to contend with increasing coastal anthropogenic activities, but also have to adapt to large-scale climatic changes.

Effects of El Niño and La Niña Southern Oscillation events on the adrenocortical responses to stress in birds of the Galapagos Islands.

El Niño Southern Oscillation events (ENSO) and the subsequent opposite weather patterns in the following months and years (La Niña) have major climatic impacts, especially on oceanic habitats, affecting breeding success of both land and sea birds. We assessed corticosterone concentrations from blood samples during standardized protocols of capture, handling and restraint to simulate acute stress from 12 species of Galapagos Island birds during the ENSO year of 1998 and a La Niña year of 1999. Plasma levels of corticosterone were measured in samples collected at capture (to represent non-stressed baseline) and subsequently up to 1 h post-capture to give maximum corticosterone following acute stress, and total amount of corticosterone that the individual was exposed to during the test period (integrated corticosterone). Seabird species that feed largely offshore conformed to the brood value hypothesis whereas inshore feeding species showed less significant changes. Land birds mostly revealed no differences in the adrenocortical responses to acute stress from year to year with the exception of two small species (<18 g) that had an increase in baseline and stress responses in the ENSO year - contrary to predictions. We suggest that a number of additional variables, including body size and breeding stage may have to be considered as explanations for why patterns in some species deviated from our predictions. Nevertheless, comparative studies like ours are important for improving our understanding of the hormonal and reproductive responses of vertebrates to large scale weather patterns and global climate change in general.

Climate windows for Polynesian voyaging to New Zealand and Easter Island.

Debate about initial human migration across the immense area of East Polynesia has focused upon seafaring technology, both of navigation and canoe capabilities, while temporal variation in sailing conditions, notably through climate change, has received less attention. One model of Polynesian voyaging observes that as tradewind easterlies are currently dominant in the central Pacific, prehistoric colonization canoes voyaging eastward to and through central East Polynesia (CEP: Society, Tuamotu, Marquesas, Gambier, Southern Cook, and Austral Islands) and to Easter Island probably had a windward capacity. Similar arguments have been applied to voyaging from CEP to New Zealand against prevailing westerlies. An alternative view is that migration required reliable off-wind sailing routes. We investigate the marine climate and potential voyaging routes during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), A.D. 800-1300, when the initial colonization of CEP and New Zealand occurred. Paleoclimate data assimilation is used to reconstruct Pacific sea level pressure and wind field patterns at bidecadal resolution during the MCA. We argue here that changing wind field patterns associated with the MCA provided conditions in which voyaging to and from the most isolated East Polynesian islands, New Zealand, and Easter Island was readily possible by off-wind sailing. The intensification and poleward expansion of the Pacific subtropical anticyclone culminating in A.D. 1140-1260 opened an anomalous climate window for off-wind sailing routes to New Zealand from the Southern Austral Islands, the Southern Cook Islands, and Tonga/Fiji Islands.

Extreme precipitation events and increased risk of campylobacteriosis in Maryland, U.S.A.

Consumption of contaminated poultry, raw milk and water are significant risk factors for Campylobacter infection. Previous studies also have investigated the association between weather (temperature and precipitation) and increased risk of campylobacteriosis, but limited information exists regarding the impacts of extreme heat and precipitation events on campylobacteriosis risk, and how such risk may differentially impact coastal communities. We obtained Campylobacter case data 2002-2012; n=4804) from the Maryland Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet). We identified extreme heat and extreme precipitation events during this time (2002-2012) using location and calendar day specific thresholds (95th percentile for extreme heat and 90th percentile for extreme precipitation) that were computed based on a 30-year baseline (1960-1989). We linked these datasets using GIS and used negative binomial generalized estimating equations adjusted for demographic confounders to calculate the association between exposure to extreme events and risk of campylobacteriosis in Maryland. We observed that a one-day increase in exposure to extreme precipitation events was associated with a 3% increase in risk of campylobacteriosis in coastal areas of Maryland (Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR): 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01, 1.05), but such an association was not observed in noncoastal areas. Furthermore, the risk associated with extreme precipitation events was considerably higher during La Niña periods (IRR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.13), while there was no evidence of elevated risk during El Niño or ENSO Neutral periods. Exposure to extreme heat events was not associated with an increased risk of campylobacteriosis, except during La Niña periods (IRR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.08). Extreme precipitation events could result in flooding within coastal areas that may bring water contaminated with bacterial pathogens (originating from sources such as septic systems, municipal wastewater treatment plants and concentrated animal feeding operations) into close proximity with individuals, where frequency of contact may be higher.

Changes in the quality of river water before, during and after a major flood event associated with a La Niña cycle and treatment for drinking purposes.

The treatment of organics present in the lower reaches of a major river system (the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia) before (March-July 2010), during (December 2010-May 2011) and after (April-December 2012) a major flood period was investigated. The flood period (over 6months) occurred during an intense La Niña cycle, leading to rapid and high increases in river flows and organic loads in the river water. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) increased (2-3 times) to high concentrations (up to 16mg/L) and was found to correlate with river flow rates. The treatability of organics was studied using conventional jar tests with alum and an enhanced coagulation model (mEnCo©). Predicted mean alum dose rates (per mg DOC) were higher before (9.1mg alum/mg DOC) and after (8.5mg alum/mg DOC) than during the flood event (8.0mg alum/mg DOC), indicating differences in the character of the organics in raw waters. To assess the character of natural organic matter present in raw and treated waters, high performance size exclusion chromatography with UV and fluorescence detectors were used. During the flood period, high molecular weight UV absorbing compounds (>2kDa) were mostly detected in waters collected, but were not evident in waters collected before and afterwards. The relative abundances of humic-like and protein-like compounds during and following the flood period were also investigated and found to be of a higher molecular weight during the flood period. The treatability of the organics was found to vary over the three climate conditions investigated.

Dominant contribution of atmospheric nonlinearities to ENSO asymmetry and extreme El Niño events.

Extreme El Niño events have outsized impacts and strongly contribute to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phase asymmetries. There is currently no consensus on the respective importance of oceanic and atmospheric nonlinearities for those asymmetries. Here, we use atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models that reproduce ENSO asymmetries well to quantify the atmospheric nonlinearities contribution. The linear and nonlinear components of the wind stress response to Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies are isolated using ensemble atmospheric experiments, and used to force oceanic experiments. The wind stress-SST nonlinearity is dominated by the deep atmospheric convective response to SST. This wind-stress nonlinearity contributes to ~ 40% of the peak amplitude of extreme El Niño events and ~ 55% of the prolonged eastern Pacific warming they generate until the following summer. This large contribution arises because nonlinearities consistently drive equatorial westerly anomalies, while the larger linear component is made less efficient by easterly anomalies in the western Pacific during fall and winter. Overall, wind-stress nonlinearities fully account for the eastern Pacific positive ENSO skewness. Our findings underscore the pivotal role of atmospheric nonlinearities in shaping extreme El Niño events and, more generally, ENSO asymmetry.

Effect of environmental variables on the incidence of Visceral Leishmaniasis in Brazil and Colombia.

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is the most severe of the three forms of Leishmaniasis. In the Americas, Brazil and Colombia present more than 90 % of the cases in the region. Our aim in this research was to estimate the association of the incidence rate of Visceral Leishmaniasis with the following environmental variables: the percentage of area suitable for the vector Lutzomyia longipalpis, the episodes of La Niña and El Niño, the Brazilian and Colombian biomes. Epidemiological data were obtained from the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System and the Colombian National Public Health Surveillance System. Environmental data were downloaded from the NASA Giovanni web app, the Modis Sensor database, and the meteorological agencies of Australia, Japan, and the United States of America. Records of the presence of Lu. longipalpis were obtained from public databases and previous studies. As a result, the incidence per 10,000 inhabitants with LEBS for each El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode showed the largest values during El Niño 2015-2016, mainly in Brazil's Northeast and Central regions and the Northeast region of Colombia. Compared with the Neutral 2012-2014 episode, the episodes of El Niño 2015-2016 and La Niña 2010-2011 showed an average increase in the monthly incidence rate of VL, and the average increase was higher during El Niño 2015-2016 (aIRR = 2.304 vs.1.453) We found a positive association between the incidence rate of VL and the El Niño 2015-2016 episode and an impressive% of area suitable for the vector Lu. longipalpis in the Amazon region.An increase of 1 % in the area suitable for the vector Lu. longipalpis leads to an average rise of 0.8 % in the monthly incidence rate of VL. Our study shows a possible association between VL incidence and ENSO, with the most considerable incidence rates observed during El Niño 2015-2016 in Brazil's Northeast and Central regions and the Northeast region of Colombia. The present study is very important to better understand the Visceral Leishmaniasis transmission dynamics.

Changes in dinoflagellate and diatom blooms in the East China Sea over the last two decades, under different spatial and temporal scale scenarios.

Frequent algal blooms in the nearshore area of the East China Sea (ECS) pose a serious threat to both the marine environment and human health. Climate and environmental changes play an important role in the occurrence of diatoms and dinoflagellates blooms. Using the MODIS-Aqua 1-km satellite observations, the outbreaks of dinoflagellate and diatom blooms in the ECS coast in summer during 2003-2022 were mapped. Our results found that although the bloom frequency of dinoflagellate was consistently higher than diatoms, its bloom intensity showed a slightly decline trend in recent decades. The driving factors analysis showed that river runoff and sediments discharge played different effect on the formation of diatom and dinoflagellate blooms. Besides, our results compared the effect of El Niño and La Niña on bloom occurrences. This study was supposed to provide detailed insights into algal blooms, with important implications for relevant meteorological and climate changes in coastal regions.

Temporal and spatial dissimilarities in an intertidal fish assemblage in the South Pacific Ocean: The role of the ENSO process and intrinsic habitat conditions in emerging patterns.

An intertidal fish assemblage was studied in central Chile for 15 years in three localities: Isla Negra, El Tabo, and Las Cruces. Analyses of their multivariate dissimilarities were carried out considering temporal and spatial factors. Temporal factors included intra-annual and year-to-year variability. Spatial factors included locality, intertidal tidepool height, and each tidepool considered as a unique unit. Complementary to this, we tested the hypothesis that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) would help explain year-to-year dissimilarities in the multivariate structure of this fish assemblage for the 15 years of data. To this end, the ENSO was regarded as a continuous inter-annual process as well as a set of discrete events. Additionally, dissimilarities in the temporal dynamics of the fish assemblage were evaluated considering each locality and tidepool unique units. Results indicated the following: (i) The most representative species for the whole area and period of the study were Scartichthys viridis (44 %), Helcogrammoides chilensis (17 %), Girella laevifrons (10 %), Graus nigra (7 %), Auchenionchus microcirrhis (5 %), and Helcogrammoides cunninghami (4 %); (ii) there is intra-annual (i.e., seasonality) and year-to-year multivariate variability in fish assemblage dissimilarities throughout the entire area of study, including all the tidepools and localities; (iii) when considering the spatial factor specifically, each tidepool unit, as well as their heights and localities, presented their own unique temporal year-to-year dynamics. The latter can be explained by the ENSO factor, also considering the intensity of the El Niño and La Niña events. In summary, the multivariate structure of the intertidal fish assemblage was statistically dissimilar when comparing neutral periods with El Niño and La Niña events. This structure was observed for the entire area of study, for each locality, and primarily for each tidepool as a unique unit. Fish physiological mechanisms underlying the identified patterns are discussed.

Influences of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on summertime ozone pollution over central-eastern China during 1950-2014.

Summertime ozone pollution has become increasingly severe over many parts of China in recent years. Due to lack of historical ozone observations, few studies have analyzed the linkage between natural climate variability and ozone levels for a long time series. This study uses the simulation datasets from CMIP6 to explore the effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on summertime (June/July/August) surface ozone concentrations in central-eastern China (CEC; 20°N-42°N, 100°E-123°E) during the period of 1950-2014. Our results show that, after excluding the emission-related trend, the detrended summertime daily mean surface ozone concentrations averaged over CEC in El Niño years (30.69 ppb) are higher than those in La Niña events (29.34 ppb). Compared to the summertime mean ozone of 1950-2014 (30.25 ppb), the maximum anomalies in CMIP6 are 2.88 ppb (9.52% higher) and - 5.52 ppb (18.25% lower) in El Niño and La Niña years, respectively. In addition, the summertime MDA8 ozone of CEC is significantly correlated with the central-eastern equatorial Pacific SST (5°N-5°S, 170°W-120°W) (R = 0.29, P-value = 0.02). Such ozone increases/declines in El Niño/La Niña years are also found in satellite observations of OMI ozone. The results show that the ENSO affects the large-scale circulations over central-eastern China, which regulate the regional atmospheric stability and meteorological conditions (including horizontal wind fields, geopotential height, vertical velocity, surface air temperature, and precipitation) to influence the efficiency of ozone photochemical formation and transport. Our study makes better estimation and attribution of future surface ozone pollution in China.